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• How to Write a Thesis or Dissertation Conclusion

How to Write a Dissertation Conclusion | Checklist and Examples

Published on 9 September 2022 by Tegan George and Shona McCombes. Revised on 10 October 2022.

The conclusion is the very last part of your thesis or dissertation . It should be concise and engaging, leaving your reader with a clear understanding of your main findings, as well as the answer to your research question .

In it, you should:

• Clearly state the answer to your main research question
• Summarise and reflect on your research process
• Make recommendations for future work on your topic
• Show what new knowledge you have contributed to your field
• Wrap up your thesis or dissertation

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Table of contents

Discussion vs. conclusion, how long should your conclusion be, step 1: answer your research question, step 2: summarise and reflect on your research, step 3: make future recommendations, step 4: emphasise your contributions to your field, step 5: wrap up your thesis or dissertation, full conclusion example, conclusion checklist, frequently asked questions about conclusion sections.

While your conclusion contains similar elements to your discussion section , they are not the same thing.

Your conclusion should be shorter and more general than your discussion. Instead of repeating literature from your literature review , discussing specific research results , or interpreting your data in detail, concentrate on making broad statements that sum up the most important insights of your research.

As a rule of thumb, your conclusion should not introduce new data, interpretations, or arguments.

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Depending on whether you are writing a thesis or dissertation, your length will vary. Generally, a conclusion should make up around 5–7% of your overall word count.

An empirical scientific study will often have a short conclusion, concisely stating the main findings and recommendations for future research. A humanities topic or systematic review , on the other hand, might require more space to conclude its analysis, tying all the previous sections together in an overall argument.

Your conclusion should begin with the main question that your thesis or dissertation aimed to address. This is your final chance to show that you’ve done what you set out to do, so make sure to formulate a clear, concise answer.

• Don’t repeat a list of all the results that you already discussed
• Do synthesise them into a final takeaway that the reader will remember.

An empirical thesis or dissertation conclusion may begin like this:

A case study –based thesis or dissertation conclusion may begin like this:

In the second example, the research aim is not directly restated, but rather added implicitly to the statement. To avoid repeating yourself, it is helpful to reformulate your aims and questions into an overall statement of what you did and how you did it.

Your conclusion is an opportunity to remind your reader why you took the approach you did, what you expected to find, and how well the results matched your expectations.

To avoid repetition , consider writing more reflectively here, rather than just writing a summary of each preceding section. Consider mentioning the effectiveness of your methodology , or perhaps any new questions or unexpected insights that arose in the process.

You can also mention any limitations of your research, but only if you haven’t already included these in the discussion. Don’t dwell on them at length, though – focus on the positives of your work.

• While x limits the generalisability of the results, this approach provides new insight into y .
• This research clearly illustrates x , but it also raises the question of y .

You may already have made a few recommendations for future research in your discussion section, but the conclusion is a good place to elaborate and look ahead, considering the implications of your findings in both theoretical and practical terms.

• Based on these conclusions, practitioners should consider …
• To better understand the implications of these results, future studies could address …
• Further research is needed to determine the causes of/effects of/relationship between …

When making recommendations for further research, be sure not to undermine your own work. Relatedly, while future studies might confirm, build on, or enrich your conclusions, they shouldn’t be required for your argument to feel complete. Your work should stand alone on its own merits.

Just as you should avoid too much self-criticism, you should also avoid exaggerating the applicability of your research. If you’re making recommendations for policy, business, or other practical implementations, it’s generally best to frame them as ‘shoulds’ rather than ‘musts’. All in all, the purpose of academic research is to inform, explain, and explore – not to demand.

Make sure your reader is left with a strong impression of what your research has contributed to the state of your field.

Some strategies to achieve this include:

• Returning to your problem statement to explain how your research helps solve the problem
• Referring back to the literature review and showing how you have addressed a gap in knowledge
• Discussing how your findings confirm or challenge an existing theory or assumption

Again, avoid simply repeating what you’ve already covered in the discussion in your conclusion. Instead, pick out the most important points and sum them up succinctly, situating your project in a broader context.

The end is near! Once you’ve finished writing your conclusion, it’s time to wrap up your thesis or dissertation with a few final steps:

• It’s a good idea to write your abstract next, while the research is still fresh in your mind.
• Next, make sure your reference list is complete and correctly formatted. To speed up the process, you can use our free APA citation generator .
• Once you’ve added any appendices , you can create a table of contents and title page .
• Finally, read through the whole document again to make sure your thesis is clearly written and free from language errors. You can proofread it yourself , ask a friend, or consider Scribbr’s proofreading and editing service .

Here is an example of how you can write your conclusion section. Notice how it includes everything mentioned above:

V. Conclusion

The current research aimed to identify acoustic speech characteristics which mark the beginning of an exacerbation in COPD patients.

The central questions for this research were as follows: 1. Which acoustic measures extracted from read speech differ between COPD speakers in stable condition and healthy speakers? 2. In what ways does the speech of COPD patients during an exacerbation differ from speech of COPD patients during stable periods?

All recordings were aligned using a script. Subsequently, they were manually annotated to indicate respiratory actions such as inhaling and exhaling. The recordings of 9 stable COPD patients reading aloud were then compared with the recordings of 5 healthy control subjects reading aloud. The results showed a significant effect of condition on the number of in- and exhalations per syllable, the number of non-linguistic in- and exhalations per syllable, and the ratio of voiced and silence intervals. The number of in- and exhalations per syllable and the number of non-linguistic in- and exhalations per syllable were higher for COPD patients than for healthy controls, which confirmed both hypotheses.

However, the higher ratio of voiced and silence intervals for COPD patients compared to healthy controls was not in line with the hypotheses. This unpredicted result might have been caused by the different reading materials or recording procedures for both groups, or by a difference in reading skills. Moreover, there was a trend regarding the effect of condition on the number of syllables per breath group. The number of syllables per breath group was higher for healthy controls than for COPD patients, which was in line with the hypothesis. There was no effect of condition on pitch, intensity, center of gravity, pitch variability, speaking rate, or articulation rate.

This research has shown that the speech of COPD patients in exacerbation differs from the speech of COPD patients in stable condition. This might have potential for the detection of exacerbations. However, sustained vowels rarely occur in spontaneous speech. Therefore, the last two outcome measures might have greater potential for the detection of beginning exacerbations, but further research on the different outcome measures and their potential for the detection of exacerbations is needed due to the limitations of the current study.

Checklist: Conclusion

I have clearly and concisely answered the main research question .

I have summarized my overall argument or key takeaways.

I have mentioned any important limitations of the research.

I have given relevant recommendations .

I have clearly explained what my research has contributed to my field.

I have  not introduced any new data or arguments.

You've written a great conclusion! Use the other checklists to further improve your dissertation.

In a thesis or dissertation, the discussion is an in-depth exploration of the results, going into detail about the meaning of your findings and citing relevant sources to put them in context.

The conclusion is more shorter and more general: it concisely answers your main research question and makes recommendations based on your overall findings.

While it may be tempting to present new arguments or evidence in your thesis or disseration conclusion , especially if you have a particularly striking argument you’d like to finish your analysis with, you shouldn’t. Theses and dissertations follow a more formal structure than this.

All your findings and arguments should be presented in the body of the text (more specifically in the discussion section and results section .) The conclusion is meant to summarize and reflect on the evidence and arguments you have already presented, not introduce new ones.

For a stronger dissertation conclusion , avoid including:

• Generic concluding phrases (e.g. “In conclusion…”)
• Weak statements that undermine your argument (e.g. “There are good points on both sides of this issue.”)

Your conclusion should leave the reader with a strong, decisive impression of your work.

The conclusion of your thesis or dissertation shouldn’t take up more than 5-7% of your overall word count.

The conclusion of your thesis or dissertation should include the following:

• A restatement of your research question
• A summary of your key arguments and/or results
• A short discussion of the implications of your research

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How to Write a Dissertation Conclusion – Example & Tips

Published by Jamie Walker at August 13th, 2021 , Revised On August 22, 2023

It is imperative for students to understand how to  write a dissertation  conclusion in order to achieve the highest grade in their dissertation project.

The concluding chapter of the dissertation should be appealing to the readers and give an accurate but concise review of what your research revolves around with special emphasis on the outcomes  and recommendations that you have derived from your research study.

The illustration below provides an insight into  how a first-class dissertation is structured , and we will now look in complete detail over how to manage the conclusion chapter of your dissertation.

The conclusion of a dissertation or thesis generally connects the beginning of your research ( introduction ,  research problem ,  research questions ) to the findings and implications of your research.

You must relate to the major  findings of your research  and answer the research questions that your study raised. There is no need to hesitate to state the limitations of research because it is natural that your research will have some limitations rather than none.

Writing a dissertation conclusion is, perhaps, the most critical aspect of your research work which is why it is vitally important to not miss out on the key elements surrounding a great dissertation conclusion.

Dissertation Conclusion Guidelines

Dissertation conclusion is a core element of your dissertation or thesis paper which is why you will be required to follow a specific set of guidelines in order to showcase the findings of your study in a logical manner.

How to Start a Dissertation Conclusion

Always write your conclusion in clear and simple language.  Before starting to write the conclusion chapter, it is important that students become familiar with the assessment criteria and expected outcomes in order to avoid complexities at a later stage.

The aim of a dissertation conclusion is to provide a brief overview of the main research work so the readers can figure out how your research study will add value to the existing literature.

Moreover, recommendations for future research and practitioners should also be provided in this section.

Difference between Conclusion & Discussion

The contents of the  discussion  and conclusion chapters are similar, and they are typically grouped together in journal articles and scientific papers.

Depending on your academic institute and the subject of your degree program, you could be asked to put discussion and conclusion together under the same chapter in your dissertation or thesis paper.

However, typically in a  dissertation or thesis paper , it is common to have a separate chapter for the conclusion to briefly state answers for all research questions, and summarise and reflect on the research.

The conclusion chapter is considerably shorter in length than the discussion. Here you will be expected to provide general statements to give readers a final impression of your research.

On the other hand, in the discussion chapter of a dissertation , the author states the major findings, and their interpretations and implications.

Do not introduce any new information, arguments, meanings, and interpretations in the conclusion chapter.

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What to Write in a Conclusion

An important question that one must address before writing a dissertation conclusion is what to write in a conclusion?

In the best case scenario, you will summarise the findings of your entire research in a comprehensive manner, but at the same time ensure that you are not just restating the points covered in the main body.

The purpose here is to present a synthesis of the major points covered which is why it is advised not to include any new ideas relating to your research at this point.

Methodology in a dissertation  can be a taxing and time consuming matter because a large chunk of your research is based on the methods you have adopted.

Essentially, the methodology should relate to the literature you have reviewed and provide academic justification to your  choice of research methods  – be it quantitative, qualitative or a mix of both.

Students must make sure that they shed adequate light on the methodology part in their dissertation conclusion.

It is essential to keep the dissertation conclusion concise and to the point rather than going into unnecessary details which would rather be a part of the main body.

Writing a dissertation conclusion is not a strenuous task if you stick to the fact that your goal here is to provide insight, evaluations and implications of your research study.

Structuring a Dissertation Conclusion

While writing a dissertation conclusion, you must be particular about the fact that it gives reflection of a cohesive argument and supports the points you have covered in the main body.

Your conclusion should depict the importance of why you chose this  specific research topic  and the impact your study will have on the society.

Providing solutions to the problems you have identified and predicting what might happen in the near future leaves a very good impression on the readers, and some of them might well be inclined to consider your argument long after.

When pondering over how to write a dissertation conclusion, it is important to relate your ideas with academics who are closely followed by your supervisor.

Although the dissertation belongs to you and you have the full right to express your own views where appropriate, there is absolutely no harm in slightly aligning your views with other researchers in order to achieve a good score.

Dissertation Conclusion Limitations

Every dissertation is likely to suffer from limitations which is precisely the reason why students must acknowledge and appropriately address them.

Limitations is an integral part of your dissertation conclusion because it will also help your readers to  understand your research design and philosophical approach .

This brief segment reflects upon the importance of the inherent limitations been identified; the reasons behind your choice of methods; and possible ways to counter the limitations.

It is recommended never to hide the limitations associated with your research, because your tutor will probably have years of experience with  different methods of research  and they will figure out these limitations even if you have not specifically discussed them.

Simply highlighting the dissertation limitations is not a very good idea because every research limitation must accompany ways in which it can be combated. Dissertation limitations can be methodological or conceptual.

It is necessary to briefly touch upon both types of limitations so your supervisor can figure out what part of your research was stalled by lack of data, cultural biases, sampling etc.

This section of the dissertation conclusion chapter is generally based on a world count – 200-500 words so it is appropriate to discuss only the most significant limitations of your study.

Dissertation Conclusion Length

Another important question that you might want to address in the final phase of your research work is how long should dissertation conclusion be? The length of a dissertation conclusion is in direct correlation with the length of the full dissertation paper.

On a simple basis the longer or more detailed your research is, the longer the conclusion it will have, and vice versa. The length will often depend on the writer’s personal judgement and making a call on such a matter might well turn out to be the difference between an ordinary and  professional dissertation writer.

The length of a dissertation conclusion chapter is generally 5-7% of the total dissertation word count.

Addressing Research Questions in Dissertation Conclusion

Make sure that you start your conclusion chapter by directly addressing the  research questions  or the  research problem  that your dissertation or thesis intended to address.

Conclusion chapter gives you the final chance to demonstrate to your readers that your research achieved what was aimed at the beginning of the research.

Provide a clear, concise and to the point answer to your research questions. You are not expected to repeat what you have already said in the discussion part of the paper, rather turn readers’ attentions towards a final outcome.

Dissertation Conclusion Example

No matter how much you dig into the details of writing a conclusion for your dissertation, it is always nice to have a look at a full-fledged example for guidance purposes. The graphic below gives a summarised view of what is to be written in a dissertation conclusion.

Here is an example of how to write a dissertation conclusion to help you better understand.

How to Write Dissertation Conclusion Example

Here is a dissertation conclusion example of a dissertation that aimed to test a theoretical argument based on an analysis of a case study; Proposed anaerobic digestion plant in Tripoli.

Chapter 5 – Dissertation Conclusion 5.1 Background This chapter highlights the crux of the study by briefly describing objectives and literature survey. The feasibility of the proposed plant is then discussed, leading to the study’s limitations and difficulties. In the end, some recommendations for future work are provided in brief. Some suggestions to improve and highlight the renewable energy generation techniques are also part of the chapter. 5.2 Literature Review, Survey and Interviews A Valora process AD plant, with a capacity of 0.8 tones of food waste per day, is proposed to be established in the city of Tripoli. This plant can assist the national grid in meeting the rising demands of electricity in Tripoli and on the outskirts. Public opinion about establishing such a plant is taken by conducting a survey. The survey results suggest that the people of Tripoli understand the need for a WTE plant and ensure their cooperation for the separate household food waste if provided with the containers by the municipal authorities. The food waste to energy generation plant provides a solution for both household food waste management in Tripoli and generating an adequate amount of electricity to meet the rising demand. An informal session of interviews has been conducted with the experts from the Energy Agency of Libya. The opinion and observation-based data collection are done in order to opt for the interpretive approach of research adequately. All five respondents recommended the idea of establishing an AD plant in Tripoli-Libya. Their comments and suggestions have also validated the plant location selected in the research as an appropriate location for establishing a plant. The idea of energy generation using sustainable methods is the main point they’ve endorsed. The research provides the solution for both; waste management in Tripoli and the introduction of sustainable energy generation methods in Libya. 5.3 Feasibility of the Proposed System A detailed, feasibly study was conducted, including technical details such as the amount of biogas generation, plant type, equipment sizing, and proposed location for the plant. Initial finances, operation and management costs of the proposed AD plant are estimated in the financial analysis of the proposed plant. Life cycle assessment is compared with food waste management to evaluate the environmental effects of the plant. The analysis suggests that the proposed AD plant is economically, technically and ecologically feasible to establish on 3rd Ring Road in Tripoli. 5.4 Limitations and Difficulties Some of the limitations and difficulties involved in the process of digestion or establishing a digestion plant are listed as follows; 1. Since many WTE technologies are designed to handle mixed-type food waste such as solid waste and municipal waste etc. Running the plant with specifically food waste is difficult as food waste makes comparatively less amount than MSW as a whole. 2. Some other WTE challenges include high capital cost, waste-gas cleanup, regulatory hurdles, and conversion efficiency. 3. Since domestic utilization of generated electricity is a primary objective, and it adds a limitation where even distribution of electricity distribution in domestic buildings is not possible if the plant is located outside the residential area. This issue can be resolved by centralizing a substation for the proper transmission and distribution. 4. Since the accuracy of the estimated analysis depends entirely on the data, and missing fields affect the accuracy of the estimations. 5. Since the survey is conducted among non-technical people and represents their views, no primary data is available that accurately estimates the energy generation from the amount of food or biogas generation. The calculations of estimation of biogas yield and energy generation are based on the equations taken from secondary resources thus can be erroneous. 5.5 Future Work This study is conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of establishing a large-scale plant to provide an alternative and renewable energy solution. The whole idea is applicable and implementable in the proposed area. Instead, in the future, the idea can be evaluated for the individual high-rise buildings to make them self-sufficient in energy demand and supply and to reduce the load on the national electricity grid. A cross-national study involving cost-benefit analysis of family-sized digesters in Tripoli is yet to analyze in order to predict the future of biogas technology in Libya. Information about government subsidies on renewable energy generation plants in Tripoli is important but unknown yet. This study revolves around the utilization of food waste collected from residential buildings only. Although hotels, restaurants, and canteens can also provide a considerably high amount of food waste and it is relatively easy for them to collect it separately. Thus further work can be based on the food waste collection from the food consumption areas. It is important to remember that there is no need to restate the research objectives in conclusion. Your statements should incorporate answers to research questions without you having to repeat those questions. Here is another example of dissertation conclusion.

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Summarising and Reflecting on Research

As mentioned before, the conclusion chapter gives you that final opportunity to restate what your research study intended to achieve, what approach you took in the process, where  findings  you came up as a result of your study, and whether or not they were according to your expectations. In short, a conclusion section needs to provide an overview of the building blocks of your research.

It is common to use a reflective style of writing here, rather than simply restating what you have already written in the previous chapters. This approach will also help you to avoid repetition.

For example, if there were limitations of your chosen research methodology then you might want to briefly state whether or not that could have influenced the results of your research study. You can also highlight any new insights that you recorded during the process.

Focus more on the positives of your study although you will be expected to concisely state the limitations of your research as well.

The research approach employed for this research study provided new insight into B even though it limited the generalizability of findings.

Recommendations for Future in Conclusion Chapter

Although it is common to provide recommendations for future research work in the discussion chapter, it will be a good idea to provide an overview of those endorsements in the conclusion chapter with a focus on the practical and theoretical consequences of your results.

Practitioners should consider A and B based on these conclusions….Further research needs to be conducted for better understanding in regards to the implications of these findings….The effects of the relationship between A and B are still unclear, and so further research must be conducted…

Research pertaining to a dissertation or thesis is usually expected to discover, enlighten, and educate rather than frame the results as essentials for practitioners and policymakers.

Any recommendations related to business, application, and strategy should be presented as propositions to avoid overstating the appositeness of your work.

Never undermine your research work when making propositions for future research. Your work should be recognized as complete, thorough, and reliable without the need for further research to confirm your conclusions.

Stress the Importance of Your Research in Conclusion

You don’t want your readers to leave with the impression that your work did not make a valuable contribution to the existing knowledge in your area of study. Here are some ideas to demonstrate how this is done;

• Referring back to the problem statement to help readers understand how your work addresses the research problem originally identified.
• Elaborate how your results validated or tested an existing hypothesis or theory.
• Stating how your research was able to fill a certain gap in existing knowledge as pointed out in the literature review.

Again, it is recommended to avoid repetition. You do not want to reiterate what you have already discussed in the previous chapter.

Dissertation Conclusion Help from Experts

Writing a dissertation is no mean feat because it requires complete dedication and attention to detail in order to secure a good grade.

Even the very first part of your dissertation – topic selection can become a cumbersome task because of the  need to select a topic with a sufficient amount of literature available on it.

Despite putting in a lot of effort, you might still end up with a grade that is well below your own expectations which is why it is sometimes better off to approach professionals providing dissertation writing services so that the complexities surrounding a top-quality dissertation are handled by people with specialized skill set.

As we approach the conclusion of this piece, it should be clear by now as to what students are expected to do in the final phase of their dissertations. In short, they should have a clear idea about  how to write a dissertation conclusion .

Finally, it is important not to let yourself down by writing a mediocre conclusion and consequently lose crucial marks. The hard part of your dissertation is already completed so it is worthwhile to put in a concentrated effort to end on a high and impress your supervisor.

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Whether it is your dissertation introduction, literature review, methodology, conclusion or any other chapter, our expert dissertation writers can help you succeed. With our dissertation chapter writing service, you can be confident of having your individual chapters completed to your school’s exact guidelines. Click here to learn more about our dissertation chapter writing service. Find out how our dissertation services can help you.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many pages is a dissertation conclusion.

The length of a dissertation conclusion varies but is typically around 1 to 2 pages. It succinctly summarizes key findings, discusses implications, and restates the significance of the study, providing a resolution to the research.

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How to write an excellent thesis conclusion [with examples]

Restate the thesis

Review or reiterate key points of your work, explain why your work is relevant, a take-away for the reader, more resources on writing thesis conclusions, frequently asked questions about writing an excellent thesis conclusion, related articles.

At this point in your writing, you have most likely finished your introduction and the body of your thesis, dissertation, or research paper . While this is a reason to celebrate, you should not underestimate the importance of your conclusion. The conclusion is the last thing that your reader will see, so it should be memorable.

A good conclusion will review the key points of the thesis and explain to the reader why the information is relevant, applicable, or related to the world as a whole. Make sure to dedicate enough of your writing time to the conclusion and do not put it off until the very last minute.

This article provides an effective technique for writing a conclusion adapted from Erika Eby’s The College Student's Guide to Writing a Good Research Paper: 101 Easy Tips & Tricks to Make Your Work Stand Out .

While the thesis introduction starts out with broad statements about the topic, and then narrows it down to the thesis statement , a thesis conclusion does the same in the opposite order.

• Restate the thesis.
• Review or reiterate key points of your work.
• Explain why your work is relevant.
• Include a core take-away message for the reader.

Tip: Don’t just copy and paste your thesis into your conclusion. Restate it in different words.

The best way to start a conclusion is simply by restating the thesis statement. That does not mean just copying and pasting it from the introduction, but putting it into different words.

You will need to change the structure and wording of it to avoid sounding repetitive. Also, be firm in your conclusion just as you were in the introduction. Try to avoid sounding apologetic by using phrases like "This paper has tried to show..."

The conclusion should address all the same parts as the thesis while making it clear that the reader has reached the end. You are telling the reader that your research is finished and what your findings are.

I have argued throughout this work that the point of critical mass for biopolitical immunity occurred during the Romantic period because of that era's unique combination of post-revolutionary politics and innovations in smallpox prevention. In particular, I demonstrated that the French Revolution and the discovery of vaccination in the 1790s triggered a reconsideration of the relationship between bodies and the state.

Tip: Try to reiterate points from your introduction in your thesis conclusion.

The next step is to review the main points of the thesis as a whole. Look back at the body of of your project and make a note of the key ideas. You can reword these ideas the same way you reworded your thesis statement and then incorporate that into the conclusion.

You can also repeat striking quotations or statistics, but do not use more than two. As the conclusion represents your own closing thoughts on the topic , it should mainly consist of your own words.

In addition, conclusions can contain recommendations to the reader or relevant questions that further the thesis. You should ask yourself:

• What you would ideally like to see your readers do in reaction to your paper?
• Do you want them to take a certain action or investigate further?
• Is there a bigger issue that your paper wants to draw attention to?

Also, try to reference your introduction in your conclusion. You have already taken a first step by restating your thesis. Now, check whether there are other key words, phrases or ideas that are mentioned in your introduction that fit into your conclusion. Connecting the introduction to the conclusion in this way will help readers feel satisfied.

I explored how Mary Wollstonecraft, in both her fiction and political writings, envisions an ideal medico-political state, and how other writers like William Wordsworth and Mary Shelley increasingly imagined the body politic literally, as an incorporated political collective made up of bodies whose immunity to political and medical ills was essential to a healthy state.

Tip: Make sure to explain why your thesis is relevant to your field of research.

Although you can encourage readers to question their opinions and reflect on your topic, do not leave loose ends. You should provide a sense of resolution and make sure your conclusion wraps up your argument. Make sure you explain why your thesis is relevant to your field of research and how your research intervenes within, or substantially revises, existing scholarly debates.

This project challenged conventional ideas about the relationship among Romanticism, medicine, and politics by reading the unfolding of Romantic literature and biopolitical immunity as mutual, co-productive processes. In doing so, this thesis revises the ways in which biopolitics has been theorized by insisting on the inherent connections between Romantic literature and the forms of biopower that characterize early modernity.

Tip: If you began your thesis with an anecdote or historical example, you may want to return to that in your conclusion.

End your conclusion with something memorable, such as:

• a call to action
• a recommendation
• a gesture towards future research
• a brief explanation of how the problem or idea you covered remains relevant

Ultimately, you want readers to feel more informed, or ready to act, as they read your conclusion.

Yet, the Romantic period is only the beginning of modern thought on immunity and biopolitics. Victorian writers, doctors, and politicians upheld the Romantic idea that a "healthy state" was a literal condition that could be achieved by combining politics and medicine, but augmented that idea through legislation and widespread public health measures. While many nineteenth-century efforts to improve citizens' health were successful, the fight against disease ultimately changed course in the twentieth century as global immunological threats such as SARS occupied public consciousness. Indeed, as subsequent public health events make apparent, biopolitical immunity persists as a viable concept for thinking about the relationship between medicine and politics in modernity.

Need more advice? Read our 5 additional tips on how to write a good thesis conclusion.

The conclusion is the last thing that your reader will see, so it should be memorable. To write a great thesis conclusion you should:

The basic content of a conclusion is to review the main points from the paper. This part represents your own closing thoughts on the topic. It should mainly consist of the outcome of the research in your own words.

The length of the conclusion will depend on the length of the whole thesis. Usually, a conclusion should be around 5-7% of the overall word count.

End your conclusion with something memorable, such as a question, warning, or call to action. Depending on the topic, you can also end with a recommendation.

In Open Access: Theses and Dissertations you can find thousands of completed works. Take a look at any of the theses or dissertations for real-life examples of conclusions that were already approved.

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• Writing Tips

The Dos and Don’ts of Writing a Dissertation Conclusion

3-minute read

• 5th August 2015

After years of hard work, dedicated research and sleepless nights, you’re finally close to finishing your dissertation . You’ve reviewed the literature , gathered and analyzed data, and reflected on the results. Well done.

But what does it all mean? This is where the conclusion becomes crucial, as it allows you to summarize your work and its significance.

It’s therefore important that the conclusion to your dissertation is clear, concise and compelling. Here are a few “dos” and “don’ts” to keep in mind when writing your conclusion!

1. Summarize Your Argument

A good conclusion will briefly restate your hypothesis, key findings and the implications of your research. This will help the reader to follow your argument as a whole, bringing together various elements raised during the discussion.

2. Put Your Work in Context

The conclusion of your dissertation is a good place to restate the significance of your work. This might include how it contributes to existing knowledge in your field or its importance outside of academia.

3. Assess Limitations

No study is perfect, not even yours! Sorry to break the bad news!

On the plus side, you can discuss the limitations of your work at the end of your dissertation. Doing this will demonstrate your understanding of the research process. Issues you may want to consider include sample size and time constraints.

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4. Identify Implications for Future Research

Most dissertation conclusions include suggestions for how your work could inform future research. This could be a refinement of your own investigation, though it might also be a radical new idea suggested by your results!

1. Introduce New Material

Although it’s fine to offer an opinion or reflection at the end of your dissertation, introducing new arguments or evidence at this point is forbidden. If something is important enough to include in the conclusion, it should be part of the main body of your paper.

2. Write Too Much

Your conclusion should include a summary of what precedes it, but it isn’t necessary to go back over everything in depth. Try to make this chapter fairly snappy, relating what you have already read in an easily digestible way.

3. Keep Your Reader in Suspense

Unlike an episode of Game of Thrones , you can’t finish your dissertation on a cliffhanger! In your research, you will have set out to answer certain questions. Make sure that you address these explicitly in your conclusion so that nothing is overlooked.

If you follow these tips you should hopefully find writing that all – important concluding chapter a much simpler process. For more information about writing a dissertation or thesis, read our full dissertation writing guide . But if you need any more support, the experts at Proofed will be happy to look over your work!

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Writing the Dissertation - Guides for Success: The Conclusion

• Writing the Dissertation Homepage
• Overview and Planning
• The Literature Review
• The Methodology
• The Results and Discussion
• The Conclusion
• The Abstract
• Getting Started
• Annotated Example
• What to Avoid

Overview of writing the dissertation conclusion

The conclusion is the final chapter of the dissertation. It serves to reinforce your main argument and findings, before considering the wider implications of your research. Along with the introduction, it’s often the shortest chapter in a dissertation, but it is a chapter in its own right and should be given due care and attention.

Even so, the conclusion of a dissertation is sometimes hastily thrown together, culminating in a perfunctory and uninspiring end to such a substantial piece of work. Just like how nobody likes a bad ending to a movie, you want your conclusion to be an accurate and positive reflection of your dissertation that leaves your reader with a clear and satisfying end to the work.

Disciplinary differences

Please note: this guide is not specific to any one discipline. The conclusion can vary depending on the nature of the research and the expectations of the school or department, so please adapt the following advice to meet the demands of your project and department. Consult your supervisor for further guidance.

Guide contents

As part of the Writing the Dissertation series, this guide covers the essentials of writing a strong conclusion, giving you the necessary knowledge, tips and guidance needed to leave a positive impression on your markers! Here’s what to expect:

• Getting Started  - Defines the overarching purpose of the conclusion.
• Structure  - Breaks down the conclusion's 'narrow to broad' structure in two main parts.
• Annotated Example - Provides a sample conclusion with notes to highlight the strategies the writer uses.
• What to Avoid  - Covers a few frequent mistakes you'll want to...avoid!
• FAQs  - Guidance on first- vs. third-person, use of secondary literature and more.
• Checklist  - Includes a summary of key points and a self-evaluation checklist.

Training and tools

• The Academic Skills team has recorded a Writing the Dissertation workshop series to help you with each section of a standard dissertation, including a video on writing the dissertation conclusion  (embedded below).
• The dissertation planner tool can help you think through the timeline for planning, research, drafting and editing.
• iSolutions offers training and a Word template to help you digitally format and structure your dissertation.

What is the conclusion?

The conclusion isn’t simply a brief recap of your previous chapters. Instead, the conclusion revisits your primary research purpose – your research question(s) and/or hypotheses – and summarises and synthesises the main research findings, or areas of discussion, to reinforce how your dissertation responds to that purpose: how does it answer question X or prove argument Y to be correct?

The conclusion then moves beyond the immediate confines of your research to engage with the wider impact and relevance of your work. That is to say, you feed the work you have completed back into the wider context to emphasise how your research has advanced our understanding of this area. This is your final opportunity to leave a positive and lasting impression on your reader, so it’s important that your conclusion captures the essential information in your dissertation and emphasises its value in the relevant profession or field of research.

Structuring a conclusion

Whilst the conclusion of a dissertation is a chapter in its own right, it’s important to consider the role that the conclusion plays in the entire structure of your dissertation. You might recognise the shape below – what is sometimes called an ‘hourglass’ structure. This represents a typical structure for an essay or dissertation. Below, we'll explore what this shape suggests about earlier sections of the dissertation as well as the conclusion.

Figure 1: The ‘hourglass’ shape that symbolises the broad-to-narrow, then narrow-to-broad structure of a dissertation, and academic writing in general.

Introduction and literature review

• Broad to narrow – eases the reader into the discussion by introducing them to the broad situation within which your research sits.
• Narrows the focus through the literature review whilst maintaining a direct interest in the wider research context.
• Arrives at a narrow focus towards the end by clearly stating what your focus is, what research problem you are going to address, how you are going to address that problem and what your argument and findings are.

Main body (methodology, results and discussion)

• Narrow focus – provides the finer details of your dissertation by isolating particular aspects to discuss and scrutinise, such as the details of how your study was designed.
• Driven by the results of your study, with secondary material used to contextualise the meaning and significance of your findings.
• Narrow to broad – reinforces your main argument and findings, then...
• Broadens out by considering the wider implications of your work for the relevant profession or field of research.

A structure in two main parts

We’re going to break the conclusion down into two main parts:

1) A summary and synthesis of your main findings or discussion points that directly respond to, and address, your research question(s) and/or hypotheses. For this reason, it’s often useful to start by briefly repeating the research problem you’ve addressed. This constitutes the narrow part of the conclusion.

2) Engagement with the impact and relevance of your research to the wider, relevant context . This constitutes the broader part of the conclusion.

Let’s look at both in more detail.

Summary and synthesis

To write an effective conclusion for your dissertation, you need to do more than simply repeat the main points and findings of your research. Instead, you need to summarise and synthesise (definition below) your main findings and points of discussion, forming a cohesive picture for your reader that brings the different elements of your research together. This helps your reader to understand how you have reached a certain answer, or why you think your argument is correct.

It’s often useful to start with a brief recap of the research problem before stating how your dissertation has responded, in some way, to this problem by synthesising the main findings and discussion points. For example:

Despite extensive research on the application of tool X, this dissertation has noted an absence of rigorous research on how this tool can be applied to demographic Y. Considerable research demonstrates the strengths and weaknesses of applying this tool when working with various demographics, particularly A and B, but the different demands associated with demographic Y restrict the suitability of these findings for this age group. In response, this dissertation has…

Following this, you need to outline how your dissertation has responded to this problem by summarising and synthesising your main findings and/or discussion points and reinforcing your main argument. Try summarising every one of your main findings or discussion points – keep it brief (one or two sentences) – and then, where possible, try and condense and connect this information to form a brief portrait of your dissertation. See ' Annotated example' for more on this.

Wider, relevant context

Once you have reinforced your research focus and your argument by summarising and synthesising your main findings, you need to relate your research to a wider, relevant context . This might include:

‘Returning’ to the introduction

As stated earlier, you conclusion shares a close relationship with your introduction with both acting as bookends that frame your entire dissertation – like the first scene and last scene of a film. For this reason, you need to return back to your introduction by revisiting the broad, but relative, themes that opened your dissertation as a way of contextualising your argument and results.

Ask yourself the question, ‘What do we now know that we didn’t at the start?’ The argument and findings won’t be a revelation to your reader, but framing them in this slightly broader context helps to reinforce the significance and contribution of your work. This brings your work ‘full circle’ and creates a neat symmetry to your work – a narrative thread for your reader to follow.

Recommendations for future research

Where necessary, it’s a good idea to include some suggestions for relevant future research that you think will help to further advance our knowledge of the research area. Don’t commit too many words to this. You simply need to state what contributions to the research field might be worth pursuing in the future and how this might further enrich our understanding of the topic. This serves to emphasise that your work is part of an evolving landscape of research, thus engaging with the wider context. This can often feature in the discussion chapter, rather than the conclusion (see our Writing the Results and Discussion guide for more).

Recommendations for practitioners

Depending on the nature of your research, it might be necessary to suggest some recommendations for relevant professionals and industry practitioners based on your findings. Remember these are only recommendations, and they must be consistent with your findings. Briefly mention how each recommendation would serve to address and, potentially, solve a problem faced by professionals. This helps your reader to understand the real-world implications and relevance of your work. Like recommendations for future research, this can often feature in the discussion. Consult your supervisor for discipline-specific guidance.

Annotated example

Take a look at this annotated example to see how the structural components discussed in the 'Structure' tab fit together to form a conclusion. This is only a short example, and your conclusion might be longer and slightly more detailed, but this gives you an idea of the flow and structure.

By focussing on the Arab Spring uprising, this dissertation has demonstrated the ways in which social media animates forms of civil empowerment through collective political action. Whilst other examples could have been used, this dissertation has highlighted how participants in the Arab Spring coordinated a strategic network of communication, drawing on Facebook, Twitter and YouTube in both distinct and interrelated ways. By adopting social media in such a way, the Arab Spring not only demonstrates that social media can have a profound impact on forms of civil empowerment, but can also become a powerful political tool when deployed in a strategic and coordinated manner.

As outlined in Chapter 3: Methodology and Chapter 4: Results, this study collected quantitative data, such as the number of likes, retweets and views, to measure the reach of social media interactions on the Arab Spring uprising during a three month period. Qualitative data was also collected through the language and rhetoric employed by citizens posting comments, and the content of videos posted on the social media sites in question. This mixed-methods approach, along with the focus on three social media platforms, provided a triangulation of data that strengthened the depth of the research and allowed for a more nuanced portrait of how social media, when deployed in a coordinated way for a particular event, forms an interconnected network of channels through which information can flow freely. As evidenced by the quantitative data, with posts and retweets reaching their millions, the use of social media had a cumulative power with the Arab Spring by spreading the civil unrest and galvanising support for the cause.

Whilst the Arab Spring only represents one case of the relationship between social media and civil empowerment, this case study shows how the Arab Spring played an influential role in the mobilisation of the hashtag movement and the digitisation of civil activism. This is most clearly exemplified by the Me Too movement, supporting the fight against sexual harassment and assault, and Black Lives Matter, fighting against the racial oppression of black people. In examining the role of social media on these and other such cases of civil activism, perhaps a systematic comparison between social media and traditional forms of media, such as newspapers, would provide further opportunities to assess the relationship between social media and social activism.

Future research should also further explore the tension between social media and political censorship. Indeed, despite social media’s obvious potential as a tool for civil empowerment, Chapter Five: Discussion also pointed to the dangers of how oppressive governments can respond to the apparent threat of civil activism through aggressive forms of censorship. Moving forward, social media platforms must defend the freedom of its users to engage in socially active ways, and understanding the intersection between social media and political censorship is crucial to defending this freedom. Only by preserving this freedom can social media, and the internet in general, continue to realise its primary function as an open sources of communication that evades the restrictive censorship of traditional gatekeepers.

What to avoid

This portion of the guide will cover some common missteps you should try to avoid in writing your conclusion.

Excessive detail

The conclusion isn’t the place to repeat detailed statistics or retrace the finer nuances of an argument. You simply need to reinforce the main findings and the essential information in your dissertation. Only you can determine what you think is a necessary level of detail in your conclusion, but look at the following two examples as a guide:

• Excessive:  The results showed a considerable increase from Sample A to Sample E. As expected, Sample A started low with only 6 per cent. Sample B then showed an increase of 20 per cent, with Sample C then reaching 36 per cent to show a further increase of 16 per cent. Sample D furthered this trend, reaching 59 per cent. Sample E then reached 82 per cent, showing a 23 per cent increase from the previous sample.
• Improved: The results showed a considerable increase of 76 per cent from Sample A (6 per cent) to Sample E (82 per cent) with samples C to D and samples D to E both showing the largest increase of the study with a 23 per cent rise.

New information

You should avoid presenting any new information, such as primary data or theories, when writing your conclusion. Any primary or secondary material you deem important enough to state in the conclusion (although avoid excessive detail as stated above) should be evident in your results and/or discussion chapters.

'In conclusion...'

Whilst it might seem logical to start your conclusion with ‘In conclusion’, it’s best to avoid this. It’s not strictly wrong to start with ‘In conclusion’, ‘To summarise’, or some other variation of such phrases, but it reflects a somewhat lazy and clichéd approach given its excessive use.

The start of your conclusion should be obvious for two main reasons. Firstly, the chapter heading ‘Conclusion’ serves as a clear indication to your reader! Secondly, your conclusion should signal a rhetorical shift in your writing to a more reflective register. For example:

This dissertation has considered the complex ways in which…

The use of the present perfect tense here signals this shift to a reflective register.

Don’t state your core argument and main observations for the first time in the conclusion chapter. This is sometimes mistakenly employed as a way of maintaining a sense of mystery before the grand reveal at the end – like the dramatic third act of a play or the final twist in a film. Academic writing is not driven by the same intrigue as narrative storytelling. Instead, the ‘end’ or conclusion in a dissertation or written assignment should be clearly signposted early on – the abstract and the introduction – as a way of focusing the reader’s attention.

Q: How long should the conclusion be?

A: Roughly 5-10% of the dissertation’s word count (usually nearer the 5% end). So, for a 10,000 word dissertation, you should aim for anything between 500 words to 1,000. You should, however, be flexible with this. As always, it depends on the nature of your dissertation and the expected conventions in your department or school. It’s always worth seeking advice from your supervisor, but it’s safe to say that – along with the introduction (again dependent on the nature of the dissertation) – it’s often the shortest chapter in the dissertation.

Q: Should the conclusion include references to secondary literature?

A: Yes, but only when necessary. As noted in ' What to avoid' , you shouldn’t be bringing in new data, theories or information, which means you will likely revisit previously discussed work in light of your own findings and argument. Although you have already mentioned and cited the original work, it’s good practice to cite them again. This is also imperative in cases where you have cited more than one piece of work from the same author or authors. So, for example:

These findings support the work of Jones (2010) in which X and Y were both seen to…

Q: Should the conclusion be in the first-person or third?

A: It depends what you’ve been using throughout your dissertation – it’s important to be consistent. Typically, third-person is used in academic writing, although first-person is accepted in some disciplines. For instance, certain genres, such as reflective writing, demand the first-person. Consult your supervisor for further guidance.

The conclusion is your final chance to leave a positive impression on your reader, so it’s important that you conclude in a clear and engaging manner. Rather than simply repeating the main content from your previous chapters, you should be summarising and synthesising your main findings and discussion points and bringing them together to reinforce your central argument and respond to any research questions or hypotheses you have. You should then engage with the wider, relevant context by returning back to where you started in your introductory chapter to answer and consider the question,  ‘What do we now know that we didn’t before?’

Here’s a final checklist for writing an effective conclusion. Remember that not all of these points will be relevant for your conclusion, so make sure you cover whatever’s appropriate for your dissertation. The asterisk (*) indicates any content that might not be relevant for your dissertation. To save your own copy of the checklist to edit, please use the Word document, below.

• Conclusion self-evaluation checklist

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• Last Updated: Apr 19, 2024 12:38 PM
• URL: https://library.soton.ac.uk/writing_the_dissertation

Conclusions

What this handout is about.

This handout will explain the functions of conclusions, offer strategies for writing effective ones, help you evaluate conclusions you’ve drafted, and suggest approaches to avoid.

About conclusions

Introductions and conclusions can be difficult to write, but they’re worth investing time in. They can have a significant influence on a reader’s experience of your paper.

Just as your introduction acts as a bridge that transports your readers from their own lives into the “place” of your analysis, your conclusion can provide a bridge to help your readers make the transition back to their daily lives. Such a conclusion will help them see why all your analysis and information should matter to them after they put the paper down.

Your conclusion is your chance to have the last word on the subject. The conclusion allows you to have the final say on the issues you have raised in your paper, to synthesize your thoughts, to demonstrate the importance of your ideas, and to propel your reader to a new view of the subject. It is also your opportunity to make a good final impression and to end on a positive note.

Your conclusion can go beyond the confines of the assignment. The conclusion pushes beyond the boundaries of the prompt and allows you to consider broader issues, make new connections, and elaborate on the significance of your findings.

Your conclusion should make your readers glad they read your paper. Your conclusion gives your reader something to take away that will help them see things differently or appreciate your topic in personally relevant ways. It can suggest broader implications that will not only interest your reader, but also enrich your reader’s life in some way. It is your gift to the reader.

Strategies for writing an effective conclusion

One or more of the following strategies may help you write an effective conclusion:

• Play the “So What” Game. If you’re stuck and feel like your conclusion isn’t saying anything new or interesting, ask a friend to read it with you. Whenever you make a statement from your conclusion, ask the friend to say, “So what?” or “Why should anybody care?” Then ponder that question and answer it. Here’s how it might go: You: Basically, I’m just saying that education was important to Douglass. Friend: So what? You: Well, it was important because it was a key to him feeling like a free and equal citizen. Friend: Why should anybody care? You: That’s important because plantation owners tried to keep slaves from being educated so that they could maintain control. When Douglass obtained an education, he undermined that control personally. You can also use this strategy on your own, asking yourself “So What?” as you develop your ideas or your draft.
• Return to the theme or themes in the introduction. This strategy brings the reader full circle. For example, if you begin by describing a scenario, you can end with the same scenario as proof that your essay is helpful in creating a new understanding. You may also refer to the introductory paragraph by using key words or parallel concepts and images that you also used in the introduction.
• Synthesize, don’t summarize. Include a brief summary of the paper’s main points, but don’t simply repeat things that were in your paper. Instead, show your reader how the points you made and the support and examples you used fit together. Pull it all together.
• Include a provocative insight or quotation from the research or reading you did for your paper.
• Propose a course of action, a solution to an issue, or questions for further study. This can redirect your reader’s thought process and help them to apply your info and ideas to their own life or to see the broader implications.
• Point to broader implications. For example, if your paper examines the Greensboro sit-ins or another event in the Civil Rights Movement, you could point out its impact on the Civil Rights Movement as a whole. A paper about the style of writer Virginia Woolf could point to her influence on other writers or on later feminists.

Strategies to avoid

• Beginning with an unnecessary, overused phrase such as “in conclusion,” “in summary,” or “in closing.” Although these phrases can work in speeches, they come across as wooden and trite in writing.
• Stating the thesis for the very first time in the conclusion.
• Introducing a new idea or subtopic in your conclusion.
• Ending with a rephrased thesis statement without any substantive changes.
• Making sentimental, emotional appeals that are out of character with the rest of an analytical paper.
• Including evidence (quotations, statistics, etc.) that should be in the body of the paper.

Four kinds of ineffective conclusions

• The “That’s My Story and I’m Sticking to It” Conclusion. This conclusion just restates the thesis and is usually painfully short. It does not push the ideas forward. People write this kind of conclusion when they can’t think of anything else to say. Example: In conclusion, Frederick Douglass was, as we have seen, a pioneer in American education, proving that education was a major force for social change with regard to slavery.
• The “Sherlock Holmes” Conclusion. Sometimes writers will state the thesis for the very first time in the conclusion. You might be tempted to use this strategy if you don’t want to give everything away too early in your paper. You may think it would be more dramatic to keep the reader in the dark until the end and then “wow” them with your main idea, as in a Sherlock Holmes mystery. The reader, however, does not expect a mystery, but an analytical discussion of your topic in an academic style, with the main argument (thesis) stated up front. Example: (After a paper that lists numerous incidents from the book but never says what these incidents reveal about Douglass and his views on education): So, as the evidence above demonstrates, Douglass saw education as a way to undermine the slaveholders’ power and also an important step toward freedom.
• The “America the Beautiful”/”I Am Woman”/”We Shall Overcome” Conclusion. This kind of conclusion usually draws on emotion to make its appeal, but while this emotion and even sentimentality may be very heartfelt, it is usually out of character with the rest of an analytical paper. A more sophisticated commentary, rather than emotional praise, would be a more fitting tribute to the topic. Example: Because of the efforts of fine Americans like Frederick Douglass, countless others have seen the shining beacon of light that is education. His example was a torch that lit the way for others. Frederick Douglass was truly an American hero.
• The “Grab Bag” Conclusion. This kind of conclusion includes extra information that the writer found or thought of but couldn’t integrate into the main paper. You may find it hard to leave out details that you discovered after hours of research and thought, but adding random facts and bits of evidence at the end of an otherwise-well-organized essay can just create confusion. Example: In addition to being an educational pioneer, Frederick Douglass provides an interesting case study for masculinity in the American South. He also offers historians an interesting glimpse into slave resistance when he confronts Covey, the overseer. His relationships with female relatives reveal the importance of family in the slave community.

Works consulted

We consulted these works while writing this handout. This is not a comprehensive list of resources on the handout’s topic, and we encourage you to do your own research to find additional publications. Please do not use this list as a model for the format of your own reference list, as it may not match the citation style you are using. For guidance on formatting citations, please see the UNC Libraries citation tutorial . We revise these tips periodically and welcome feedback.

Douglass, Frederick. 1995. Narrative of the Life of Frederick Douglass, an American Slave, Written by Himself. New York: Dover.

Hamilton College. n.d. “Conclusions.” Writing Center. Accessed June 14, 2019. https://www.hamilton.edu//academics/centers/writing/writing-resources/conclusions .

Holewa, Randa. 2004. “Strategies for Writing a Conclusion.” LEO: Literacy Education Online. Last updated February 19, 2004. https://leo.stcloudstate.edu/acadwrite/conclude.html.

You may reproduce it for non-commercial use if you use the entire handout and attribute the source: The Writing Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

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What’s Included: Conclusion Template

This template covers all the core components required in the conclusion chapter of a typical dissertation, thesis or research project:

• The opening/overview section
• Summary of key findings
• Limitations
• Recommendations for future research
• Contribution
• Concluding summary

The purpose of each section is explained in plain language, followed by an overview of the key elements that you need to cover. The template also includes practical examples to help you understand exactly what’s required, along with links to additional free resources (articles, videos, etc.) to help you along your research journey.

The cleanly formatted Google Doc can be downloaded as a fully editable MS Word Document (DOCX format), so you can use it as-is or convert it to LaTeX.

PS – if you’d like a high-level template for the entire thesis, you can we’ve got that too .

Dissertation & Thesis Conclusion FAQ

What format is the template (doc, pdf, ppt, etc.).

The conclusion chapter template is provided as a Google Doc. You can download it in MS Word format or make a copy to your Google Drive. You’re also welcome to convert it to whatever format works best for you, such as LaTeX or PDF.

Is this template for an undergrad, Master or PhD-level thesis?

This template can be used for a dissertation, thesis or research project at any level of study. Doctoral-level projects typically require a lengthier, more comprehensive conclusion, but the structure will typically remain the same. Again, be sure to check your university’s requirements and norms in terms of document structure.

What types of dissertations/theses can this be used for?

The conclusion chapter template follows the standard format for academic research projects, which means it will be suitable for the majority of dissertations, theses and research projects (especially those within the sciences).

Keep in mind that the exact requirements for the conclusion chapter/section will vary between universities and degree programs. For example, your university may require that the discussion chapter and conclusion chapter are merged into one (this is common for shorter projects). So, be sure to double-check your university’s requirements before you finalize your structure.

How long should the conclusion chapter be?

This can vary a fair deal, depending on the level of study (undergrad, Master or Doctoral), the field of research, as well as your university’s specific requirements. Therefore, it’s best to check with your university or review past dissertations from your program to get an accurate estimate.

Can I share this template with my friends/colleagues?

Yes, you’re welcome to share this template in its original format (no editing allowed). If you want to post about it on your blog or social media, please reference this page as your source.

Do you have templates for the other chapters?

Yes, we do. We are constantly developing our collection of free resources to help students complete their dissertations and theses. You can view all of our template resources here .

In a short paper—even a research paper—you don’t need to provide an exhaustive summary as part of your conclusion. But you do need to make some kind of transition between your final body paragraph and your concluding paragraph. This may come in the form of a few sentences of summary. Or it may come in the form of a sentence that brings your readers back to your thesis or main idea and reminds your readers where you began and how far you have traveled.

So, for example, in a paper about the relationship between ADHD and rejection sensitivity, Vanessa Roser begins by introducing readers to the fact that researchers have studied the relationship between the two conditions and then provides her explanation of that relationship. Here’s her thesis: “While socialization may indeed be an important factor in RS, I argue that individuals with ADHD may also possess a neurological predisposition to RS that is exacerbated by the differing executive and emotional regulation characteristic of ADHD.”

In her final paragraph, Roser reminds us of where she started by echoing her thesis: “This literature demonstrates that, as with many other conditions, ADHD and RS share a delicately intertwined pattern of neurological similarities that is rooted in the innate biology of an individual’s mind, a connection that cannot be explained in full by the behavioral mediation hypothesis.”  

Highlight the “so what”  

At the beginning of your paper, you explain to your readers what’s at stake—why they should care about the argument you’re making. In your conclusion, you can bring readers back to those stakes by reminding them why your argument is important in the first place. You can also draft a few sentences that put those stakes into a new or broader context.

In the conclusion to her paper about ADHD and RS, Roser echoes the stakes she established in her introduction—that research into connections between ADHD and RS has led to contradictory results, raising questions about the “behavioral mediation hypothesis.”

She writes, “as with many other conditions, ADHD and RS share a delicately intertwined pattern of neurological similarities that is rooted in the innate biology of an individual’s mind, a connection that cannot be explained in full by the behavioral mediation hypothesis.”  

Leave your readers with the “now what”  

After the “what” and the “so what,” you should leave your reader with some final thoughts. If you have written a strong introduction, your readers will know why you have been arguing what you have been arguing—and why they should care. And if you’ve made a good case for your thesis, then your readers should be in a position to see things in a new way, understand new questions, or be ready for something that they weren’t ready for before they read your paper.

In her conclusion, Roser offers two “now what” statements. First, she explains that it is important to recognize that the flawed behavioral mediation hypothesis “seems to place a degree of fault on the individual. It implies that individuals with ADHD must have elicited such frequent or intense rejection by virtue of their inadequate social skills, erasing the possibility that they may simply possess a natural sensitivity to emotion.” She then highlights the broader implications for treatment of people with ADHD, noting that recognizing the actual connection between rejection sensitivity and ADHD “has profound implications for understanding how individuals with ADHD might best be treated in educational settings, by counselors, family, peers, or even society as a whole.”

To find your own “now what” for your essay’s conclusion, try asking yourself these questions:

• What can my readers now understand, see in a new light, or grapple with that they would not have understood in the same way before reading my paper? Are we a step closer to understanding a larger phenomenon or to understanding why what was at stake is so important?  
• What questions can I now raise that would not have made sense at the beginning of my paper? Questions for further research? Other ways that this topic could be approached?  
• Are there other applications for my research? Could my questions be asked about different data in a different context? Could I use my methods to answer a different question?  
• What action should be taken in light of this argument? What action do I predict will be taken or could lead to a solution?  
• What larger context might my argument be a part of?  

What to avoid in your conclusion  

• a complete restatement of all that you have said in your paper.  
• a substantial counterargument that you do not have space to refute; you should introduce counterarguments before your conclusion.  
• an apology for what you have not said. If you need to explain the scope of your paper, you should do this sooner—but don’t apologize for what you have not discussed in your paper.  
• fake transitions like “in conclusion” that are followed by sentences that aren’t actually conclusions. (“In conclusion, I have now demonstrated that my thesis is correct.”)
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Writing a Paper: Conclusions

Writing a conclusion.

A conclusion is an important part of the paper; it provides closure for the reader while reminding the reader of the contents and importance of the paper. It accomplishes this by stepping back from the specifics in order to view the bigger picture of the document. In other words, it is reminding the reader of the main argument. For most course papers, it is usually one paragraph that simply and succinctly restates the main ideas and arguments, pulling everything together to help clarify the thesis of the paper. A conclusion does not introduce new ideas; instead, it should clarify the intent and importance of the paper. It can also suggest possible future research on the topic.

An Easy Checklist for Writing a Conclusion

It is important to remind the reader of the thesis of the paper so he is reminded of the argument and solutions you proposed.

Think of the main points as puzzle pieces, and the conclusion is where they all fit together to create a bigger picture. The reader should walk away with the bigger picture in mind.

Make sure that the paper places its findings in the context of real social change.

Make sure the reader has a distinct sense that the paper has come to an end. It is important to not leave the reader hanging. (You don’t want her to have flip-the-page syndrome, where the reader turns the page, expecting the paper to continue. The paper should naturally come to an end.)

No new ideas should be introduced in the conclusion. It is simply a review of the material that is already present in the paper. The only new idea would be the suggesting of a direction for future research.

Conclusion Example

As addressed in my analysis of recent research, the advantages of a later starting time for high school students significantly outweigh the disadvantages. A later starting time would allow teens more time to sleep--something that is important for their physical and mental health--and ultimately improve their academic performance and behavior. The added transportation costs that result from this change can be absorbed through energy savings. The beneficial effects on the students’ academic performance and behavior validate this decision, but its effect on student motivation is still unknown. I would encourage an in-depth look at the reactions of students to such a change. This sort of study would help determine the actual effects of a later start time on the time management and sleep habits of students.

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Dissertation Genius

Dissertation Writing: How to Write your Conclusion

December 10, 2016 by Dissertation Genius

In this blog post, you’ll learn exactly how to write the last chapter of your doctoral dissertation. In particular, you will get oriented with the overall goals of the conclusion chapter. Then, you’ll be taught on how to go about writing the chapter itself. Finally, you will be given guidance on what things to avoid in the ever-important final chapter of your dissertation.

The Main Goals of your Dissertation Conclusion

Before going into how to actually write the conclusion chapter of your dissertation, it’s important to review its purpose. Regardless of what discipline you are in, there are certain messages you always want your readers to absorb after reading your conclusion chapter. Basically, your conclusion should always: Give a general overview of the important contributions of your work –  Make it absolutely clear for your committee and the general reader the original contributions of your work and where they are situated with respect to the rest of your research field. A good way to do this is to simply display your contributions in a bulleted list.

Summarize the main points of your various chapters – Especially if you aim to get your work published, your conclusion should always strive to be an ‘executive summary’ of your work. Not every reader will be interested in reading your entire work. This way, you will have this chapter ready to give them a brief (yet comprehensive) overview of the dissertation.

Recommendations – You should always include at least a paragraph on the practical implications resulting from your findings. This is extremely valuable for yourself, the committee, and the general reader. You can be rather flexible with your recommendations as long as they are relevant and derived from the findings of your dissertation research. For example, you can list highly-specific recommendations and steps to be followed or you can list more general recommendations guiding the reader towards certain ideas and principles to follow.

Future Work – No matter how much you have done with your dissertation research, it will never truly be finished. There will always be lingering question marks and open ends. By no means does this indicate your work is incomplete On the contrary, no PhD work is ever complete and, in fact, a good dissertation is one that sparks a high level of general interest and motivates further research in a particular discipline.

How to Actually Write the Dissertation Conclusion Chapter

Now that you have a good grasp of what the general outline should be of your conclusion, it is important to look at how to actually write it. The most important principle to keep in mind while writing your dissertation conclusion is reflection . To illustrate:

• If readers were to go over nothing in your work except your conclusion, what message(s) would you want to leave them with?
• What would your ‘take-home’ message be to your audience? What idea, question, call-to-action, etc., would you want them to have as they finish reading your work and walk away?

These are what you must constantly ask yourself while you are writing your dissertation conclusion.

Usually, you should start writing your conclusion by first taking notes, and you should do this while proofreading the initial draft of your work . In general, you should use the following approach:

• Use an approach where you would 1) proofread, 2) take notes, and 3) summarize every single chapter of your work. This will pave the way and give you the structure you need for your dissertation conclusion.
• After you do this, simply copy & paste these mini chapter summaries and combine them into your conclusion.
• Now you have the ‘raw material’ and with this, you can start to modify and weave together the main ideas of your general summary.
• After that, simply add the sections on practical implications, contributions, and future work/research.
• As a final step, re-read the draft of your conclusion and ask yourself, “Does my conclusion really grasp the essence of my work?”

Pitfalls to Avoid for your Dissertation Conclusion

In general, there are three main pitfalls you should always avoid when writing the conclusion for your dissertation.

Protracted and Rambling Conclusion – A long and protracted conclusion is when you repeat yourself unnecessarily (without adding anything to what you are mentioning) about points you already mentioned in your previous chapters before the conclusion.

Short Conclusion – This is actually an improvement to a long and rambling conclusion, which wastes valuable time on the part of your audience. However, a conclusion that is too short also rambles about facts without coming to a logical conclusion, and does all this using less words and missing vital points/arguments.

Implausible Conclusion – Often times, doctoral students can come to wild conclusions that boggle the mind. They make claims that have absolutely no logical link to the evidence in their research, or that link is very weak. For example, many PhD students (in their very limited small-scale study) make wild assertions that the results of their study should be adopted by public policy-makers, governmental officials, and the like. If you make a list of unsubstantiated claims, you will be wasting a lot of hard work for nothing. Simply stay humble and avoid doing this!

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Dissertation Conclusion: The Perfect Way to End Your Dissertation

Table of Contents

• 1. Definition of a dissertation conclusion
• 2. How to write a dissertation conclusion
• 3. How long should a dissertation conclusion be?
• 4. Differentiating conclusion and discussion
• 5. Writing a dissertation conclusion
• 5.1. Step 1: Start by Answering the Thesis Questions
• 5.2. Step 2: Summarize the Thesis Findings
• 5.3. Step 3. Draw Key Recommendations
• 5.4. Step 4. Highlight the Contribution
• 6. Close the thesis

Dissertation Conclusion: What Is It?

The dissertation conclusion is the final chapter of the thesis, wrapping up the research conducted and summarizing the key outcomes of a discussion section.

How To Write A Dissertation Conclusion

• Answer the research questions of the study . These are solutions to the questions that you brought forward in the first chapter of the dissertation.
• Summarize the dissertation/ your study . The summary captures the key arguments brought out in the dissertations and also reflects on them.
• Draw the main recommendations . These are further elaborations on the recommendations that you drew in the discussion.
• Demonstrate the contribution you have made . This gives your readers a clear impression of the impact that you have made with the dissertation in the area of study.

When thinking of how to write thesis conclusion, it is important to make it easy-to-read, concise, and fun to read. Your goal should be putting across the argument that your dissertation brought out. Although you will most probably have handled the introduction, literature review, methodology, and discussion of the dissertation, the importance of the dissertation conclusion cannot be underestimated.

• It answers the research questions of the study.
• It provides you with the opportunity to summarize the findings of the study.
• Offers you the opportunity to make recommendations for additional studies.
• Clearly highlights the additional knowledge that your dissertation has added.

How Long Should a Dissertation Conclusion be?

Before we can dig deeper into the main ways to start a conclusion of a thesis, it is prudent to know how long it should be.

The recommended length of a dissertation conclusion is 5-7% of the overall word count .

But you should note that empirical scientific studies, which are shorter, rock shorter conclusions compared to those of studies in humanities. You might want to check a dissertation conclusion sample from a top student or expert to see how he/she did the conclusion.

Differentiating Conclusion and Discussion

Taking a closer look, you might notice that a dissertation conclusion and discussion have some similar components. Indeed, some universities recommend combining the conclusion and discussion.

The main difference between the two is that a conclusion is shorter and takes a more general perspective compared to the discussion. Note that a conclusion should not introduce new information or arguments.

Writing A Dissertation Conclusion

To make concluding your thesis easy and direct, you should follow these four steps. Since you are concluding, it is important to have the arguments clear both in your mind and the thesis. Here is a step-by-step guide on how to conclude a thesis.

Step 1: Start by Answering the Thesis Questions

If you have been wondering how to start a thesis conclusion, the best way is restating the main study questions and thesis . The conclusion offers you the chance to show the reader that the thesis achieved the core goal it was intended to. So, it is important to craft a straightforward answer to the questions of the research. Remember to avoid simply restating the findings because you will sound repetitive. Instead, synthesize them and put them across in an easy-to-remember manner. See the examples of how to restate thesis in conclusion.

By evaluating the fast-changing representation of migration and Italy border policy in the past 15 years, this demonstrated that media discourse can help to shape the decision making in a country.

Step 2: Summarize the Thesis Findings

The person who is reading your dissertation conclusion has come a long way from the first chapter. Before finishing reading the study, this is a great opportunity to remind him/her why you started working on the study in the first place. Well, go a step further and demonstrate how articulately the results from the study synched with your main expectations. So, summarize the study coherently, showing the entire journey that was followed during the study.

At this point, many students find themselves doing a lot of repetition, which can make the conclusion boring. Instead of simply summarizing chapters, consider using a reflective approach. For example, how effectively did the findings answer the questions of the study? Here are some examples of how to do it:

This study strongly demonstrates that Y, but further raises fundamental questions about X and Z

Step 3. Draw Key Recommendations

Although you are likely to have highlighted the recommendations when writing the discussions, here is another opportunity to provide further elaboration. So, how do you do it? Here are some examples :

From these conclusions, researchers should factor …. To comprehend the impacts of the findings brought out in this study, more studies could help to find out … Additional studies are required to bring out the relationship between …

Here, it is important to be factual. Remember that when you call for additional studies, a question about it could be thrown your way during the thesis defense.

Step 4. Highlight the Contribution that Your Thesis has made in Your Area of Study

As you close the thesis, your reader should not be left in doubt about the contribution that you made to knowledge in the area of study. Here are some unique ways that you can achieve this:

Revisit the main problem of the study and demonstrate how the study solves it. Using the literature review, demonstrate how the study helped to seal the gaps that existed there.

Close the Thesis

After writing the thesis, you are finally approaching the end. So, it is the best moment to hit the final steps because everything is still clear and fresh in mind. Make sure to also check another top example of conclusion in thesis and compare it with yours. The aim is to make your conclusion look better. Here are the main things that you need to work on:

• The abstract. Although this is coming in the last part of the dissertation, it is positioned before the table of content of the dissertation.
• Reference list.
• Appendices.
• Proofread your dissertation.

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Writing a Conclusion

Writing a conclusion is an important part of any piece of writing. It is often possible to get a good overview of an assignment by looking briefly at the conclusion. However, writing a conclusion can be quite difficult. This is because it can often be hard to find something interesting or useful to say in the conclusion. Conclusions should be attractive and interesting but often they are rather dull and "formula written".

Although formulae for writing conclusions are tempting to use, it is always best to avoid set phrases such as "Therefore, let us conclude that..." which are clichés, and do not help to end your work in the best light.

Helpful information, advice and materials for writing conclusions

1. What are the typical ingredients in a conclusion?  

2. What are the differences between writing conclusions to essays and to dissertations/theses?

3. See a sample conclusion

4. Try a practice activity

5. Check out further advice on writing conclusions

6. Download a checklist to help you edit your written work

What are the typical 'ingredients' of a conclusion?  

Trzeciak and Mackay (1994) ( Study skills for academic writing. New York: Prentice Hall ) observe a number of useful "ingredients" that form part of a conclusion. Again (as with introductions) it will not always be necessary or desirable to include all the elements they mention. However, you will probably want to use some of these in some combination, in order to conclude your work.

• A summary of the main part of the text
• A deduction made on the basis of the main body
• Your personal opinion on what has been discussed
• A statement about the limitations of the work
• A comment about the future based on what has been discussed
• The implications of the work for future research
• Important facts and figures not mentioned in the main body

Pallant (2009) sees five basic ingredients of a conclusion as follows, though these will not always be used in the same conclusion:

• A summary of the main points (being careful not to repeat exactly what you have written before)
• Concluding statements  
• Recommendations
• Predictions

These recommendations probably apply more to discussion essays than they do to other kinds of assessed writing at university. For example, if you are writing a business plan or discussing a law scenario, or answering an examination question, you may not need the above elements, unless the question specifically asks you for them or unless it is known that it is expected of you in the discipline you are working in.

However, you will generally need a final section to indicate that you are 'rounding off' the discusion. Always be very careful to check what the conventions are in the discipline you are working in, and ideally, it is best to look at examples of past students' work so that you can see what you are aiming for.

  back ^

What are the differences between writing conclusions to essays and to dissertations/theses?  

When writing longer pieces of work, it is still very important to observe some of the principles above. For instance, you will still want to ensure that your conclusion really does conclude , and does not just go off at a tangent to discuss something that is unrelated to the thesis. Some people believe (mistakenly) that a conclusion is the place for you to relax and 'say whatever you want'. This is incorrect. If you do this, you will be likely to be marked down.

There are also likely to be some key differences in your approach when writing conclusions. Certainly, conclusions will be even more important in a dissertation or thesis, purely because of the length of the piece. Among the differences you will notice are the following:

• As well as having an overall conclusion to your dissertation or thesis, each chapter should also have a conclusion (as well as an introduction). The reason for this is that in a longer piece of writing, it becomes more important to remind the reader of what you have done and why you have done it, before you move onto the next stage.
• The conclusion of a dissertation or thesis is not an opportunity to engage in a personal 'rant'. You must draw out key aspects of the literature you have studied, along with your recommendations , and say how they are justified or contradicted by your research.
• It is a good idea in a chapter conclusion to remind the reader what happened in the chapter (e.g. In this chapter, the literature relating to the teaching of vocabulary was considered.). After this, you need to build a bridge linking this chapter with the next one. (e.g. This will be further discussed in the next chapter.)
• In a dissertation or thesis, there is likely to be a longer section on the limitations of your research . Important though this is, however, you also need to be sure to sell your research in the conclusion - so it is best not to be too negative or over-modest about your achievements at this point. The key to many dissertations and theses is the need to emphasise the contribution that it makes to research.
• In a dissertation or thesis, it is more likely that you will have a section on the need for future research . In an MA or MSc dissertation you may like to suggest something that could be developed from your work as a PhD thesis. In a PhD thesis you may like to indicate some potential for post-doctoral work.

Further advice on writing conclusions

When writing an assignment, be careful of the following points:

• The topic you are writing about may not always require a full conclusion (this is particularly the case if your work is heavily analytical or mathematical, or not very discursive.) Remember not all assignments require discussion. Check what the expectations are in your own department. Ask your tutor if you are not sure.
• Even if you do not need a full conclusion, remember that any assignment nearly always needs to be rounded off in some way and brought to an end. Consider this: will the reader know that you have finished your work? (Or will they just think that you have run out of time - or energy)?
• Keep in mind the balance of your assignment. The conclusion should be clear and relatively brief.
• In discussion-type assignments, it is often a better idea to raise questions and problems in the conclusion than to provide over-simplified/ naive answers to the assignment title. Examiners will usually be very wary of essays, theses or dissertations that presume to solve all the world's problems in a simplistic and trivial way. Remember, life is never that simple. However, remember not to introduce any new material in the conclusion.
• There is no need to go over everything again that you have already mentioned; this would be unnecessarily boring and tedious.
• Make sure that the conclusion is based on what you have said before. It is often tempting to go off at a tangent and to say things that are completely unrelated to the topic. Be wary of this.
• It is permissible to give your opinion in the conclusion but try to do so subtly and try not to sound too pompous or authoritarian . Usually your viewpoint will be obvious from your discussion, so there is no need to conclude with statements such as: In conclusion, I think Hamlet is a great play. Allow your enthusiasm for the topic to show in how you discuss it. Make sure that you do not use the conclusion as an opportunity to engage in an over-generalised an unfocussed 'rant'.
• Be careful with tenses. In a conclusion, you will usually want to use the present perfect (e.g. The aim of this dissertation has been to....) followed by the simple past (Chapter 1 provided an overview of...).
• Be very careful about using the word "conclusion" anywhere other than the conclusion itself! This can mislead the reader. If you use the word conclusion several times in an essay, the reader will give up trying to work out where the conclusion really is.

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Mastering Your Dissertation Conclusion Chapter: A Step-by-Step Guide

Crafting the Perfect Conclusion Chapter for Your Dissertation or Thesis

Writing the conclusion chapter of your dissertation, thesis, or any formal academic research project can often seem daunting. However, understanding the purpose, content, and structure of the conclusion chapter can help you craft it with confidence and clarity. In this article, we'll guide you through the process step by step, helping you to conclude your research project on a strong note.

Understanding the Conclusion Chapter

The conclusion chapter is typically the final major chapter in a dissertation or thesis. Its primary role is to summarize your research findings and neatly wrap up the document. Unlike journal articles and research reports that might combine discussion and conclusion sections, dissertations and theses usually treat these as separate chapters. It's crucial to verify your institution's structural preferences before beginning to write.

Key Functions of the Conclusion Chapter

A well-crafted conclusion chapter should:

• Summarize the key findings of the study.
• Answer the research questions and address the research aims.
• Inform the reader of the study's main contributions.
• Discuss any limitations or weaknesses of the study.
• Make recommendations for future research.

Remember, the conclusion chapter should not introduce any new findings or data points but rather synthesize the information already presented in your research.

Writing the Conclusion Chapter: A Step-by-Step Approach

Step one: craft a brief introduction.

Start with a brief introduction to your conclusion chapter, outlining what readers can expect to find. This section serves as a roadmap, so keep it concise.

Step Two: Discuss Overall Findings

Discuss the overall findings of your study in relation to the research aims and questions. Focus on the broader implications of your findings, and avoid making overly bold claims.

Step Three: Highlight Your Study's Contributions

Explain how your research contributes to the field, both theoretically and practically. Be confident but humble, and clearly state the contribution your study has made.

Step Four: Reflect on Limitations

Critically reflect on the limitations of your study. Acknowledging limitations adds credibility to your research, but be sure not to undermine the value of your work.

Step Five: Recommendations for Future Research

Make recommendations for future research based on the limitations identified and any intriguing findings that were not directly related to your study's objectives.

Step Six: Closing Summary

Conclude your chapter with a brief summary that recaps the key points discussed. Ensure no new information is introduced in this section.

Expert Tips for a Strong Conclusion Chapter

• Be concise and focus on clarity and brevity throughout your conclusion chapter.
• Make claims about your study's contribution carefully, avoiding exaggeration.
• Use clear and simple language to ensure your writing is accessible to all readers.
• Test the clarity of your introduction and conclusion by having a friend read them and explain the gist of your study.

By following these guidelines and tips, you can write a conclusion chapter that effectively wraps up your research project and leaves a lasting impression on your readers.

For more in-depth advice and step-by-step guidance on academic research, consider subscribing to Grad Coach TV and exploring our one-on-one coaching services at Grad Coach .

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Policy has tightened a lot. how tight is it (an update).

May 7, 2024

Over the past few years, I have published a series of essays assessing where we are in our inflation fight and highlighting some important questions policymakers are facing. My most recent essay was in February of this year, where I questioned how much monetary policy was actually restraining demand. This essay is an update to that commentary, and I now examine the current stance of monetary policy in more detail. 1

I will argue that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has tightened policy significantly, compared with prior cycles, both in absolute terms and relative to the market’s understanding of neutral. But I will also observe that the housing market is proving more resilient to that tight policy than it generally has in the past. Given that housing is a key channel through which monetary policy affects the economy, its resilience raises questions about whether policymakers and the market are misperceiving neutral, at least in the near term. It is possible that once the reopening dynamics of the post-COVID economy have concluded, the macro forces that drove the low-rate environment that existed before the pandemic will reemerge, pulling neutral back down. But the FOMC must set policy based on where neutral is in the short run to achieve our dual mandate goals in a reasonable period of time. The uncertainty about where neutral is today creates a challenge for policymakers.

Economic Update

Since my last update in February, two significant economic developments have occurred simultaneously: Inflation appears to have stopped falling and economic activity has proven resilient, continuing the robust activity we saw in the latter half of 2023.

The FOMC targets 12-month headline inflation of 2 percent. While we saw rapid disinflation in the second half of 2023, that progress appears to have stalled in the most recent quarter (see Figure 1). The question we now face is whether the disinflationary process is in fact still underway, merely taking longer than expected, or if inflation is instead settling to around a 3 percent level, suggesting that the FOMC has more work to do to achieve our dual mandate goals.

During this time, economic activity has continued to show remarkable strength, as shown in Figure 2. While the most recent headline GDP appears somewhat weaker than prior quarters, that slowdown was driven largely by inventories and net exports. Underlying domestic demand remained strong.

The labor market, the other half of our dual mandate, has also remained strong with the unemployment rate at a historically low 3.9 percent.

Policy Is Much Tighter than the Pre-pandemic Period

In prior essays I wrote that the single best proxy for the overall stance of monetary policy is the long-term real rate, specifically the 10-year Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) yield. Focusing on a long-term rate incorporates the expected path of both the federal funds rate and balance sheet, not just the current level of the federal funds rate. Moreover, it adjusts the expected path of policy by expected future inflation—the relevant comparison—rather than by recently realized inflation.

As I noted in earlier essays, prior to the pandemic the 10-year real yield was about zero, which I estimate was roughly a neutral policy stance at that time. In response to the pandemic, the FOMC acted aggressively to support the economy by driving the federal funds rate to the effective lower bound and massively expanding our balance sheet. Those combined effects drove the 10-year real yield to roughly -1 percent, as shown in Figure 3. Since we began our tightening cycle two years ago, 10-year real yields have more than fully retraced their pandemic decline and are now around 2.2 percent. Thus, we are clearly in a tighter stance now than immediately before the pandemic.

This Tightening Cycle Appears to Be as Aggressive as the 1994 Cycle

Data from the TIPS market only go back 20 years or so; thus, to evaluate earlier tightening cycles one must make a number of assumptions about the neutral rate and about inflation expectations.

I do not think comparisons to the 1970s and early 1980s are particularly relevant to us today because in those decades, the FOMC had to establish its inflation-fighting credibility, so the required monetary tightening was very large.

The tightening cycle in 1994 might be a better benchmark because at that time, as is true now, the FOMC had a lot of credibility with the public. Inflation was not as high in 1994, however, as it was in this episode. So it is not a perfect comparison either.

Minneapolis Fed staff’s best estimate is that when the FOMC raised the policy rate by 300 basis points in the 1994 tightening cycle, this translated into an increase of about 200 basis points in the 10-year real rate (Figure 4), which was coincidentally also about 200 basis points above the then-neutral 10-year real rate. So that is the key: It seems as though policy drove the 10-year real rate about 200 basis points above neutral.

How does that compare to our current tightening cycle? (See Figure 3.) If my estimate of neutral being zero before the pandemic still holds, then we have accomplished similar or a bit more tightening in this cycle than was achieved in the 1994 tightening cycle.

Yield Curve Suggests Policy Is Tight

As I stated earlier, the underlying inflationary dynamics are quite different today than in 1994, so simply repeating the 1994 tightening might not be enough. And perhaps the unique dynamics of the post-COVID reopening economy have caused neutral to increase.

Another indicator I look at to assess the stance of monetary policy is the shape of the yield curve. Specifically, if the yield curve is inverted, it might indicate that monetary policy is in a contractionary stance. A lot of public attention is given to the yield curve, and there is a robust debate about whether an inverted yield curve is a reliable recession indicator. I wrote about this in 2018. Setting aside its usefulness as a predictor of recessions, the yield curve does seem to give some indication of the stance of monetary policy. The long end of the yield curve should offer some signal of where market participants believe interest rates will settle once current economic and policy shocks have run their course; if markets understand that neutral has moved, it should be reflected in the long end of the curve. If current short rates are higher than long rates, then that might signal an overall tight stance of policy today. Figure 5 shows the history of the (nominal) yield curve with a number of inversions over the past 50 years, including the current inversion. 2

Depending on the specific measures chosen, the yield curve has now been inverted for more than 20 months, which is a relatively long and somewhat deeper inversion than most prior cycles, the Volcker disinflation period being the exception. The current inverted yield curve suggests that policy is in fact tight relative to the market’s understanding of neutral.

The Resilience in the Housing Market Nonetheless Raises Questions

Housing is traditionally the most interest-rate-sensitive sector of the economy. Prior yield curve inversions also coincided with a marked slowdown or even contraction in residential investment, as shown in Figure 6. Curiously, while residential investment fell in the first part of our tightening cycle, it has since reversed and has grown 5 percent over the past year.

What could explain this apparent resilience in residential real estate given monetary policy that has led to an inverted yield curve? We know that following the Global Financial Crisis, the country built far fewer housing units than were needed to keep up with population growth and household formation. Thus, there appears to be a significant shortage of housing that will take a long time to close. In addition, responses to COVID have led to an increase in people working from home, and that has led to increased demand for housing. In recent years there has also been a significant increase in immigration. While the long-run effect of increased immigration on inflation is unclear, immigrants nonetheless need a place to live, and their arrival in the U.S. has likely also increased demand for housing. Policy actions by the FOMC have driven 30-year mortgage rates from around 4.0 percent prior to the pandemic to around 7.5 percent today. Perhaps that level of mortgage rates is not as contractionary for residential investment as it would have been absent these unique factors which are driving housing demand higher. In other words, perhaps a neutral rate for the housing market is higher than before the pandemic.

Other Signals from the Real Economy Are Mixed

Monetary policy is a blunt instrument that eventually affects virtually the entire economy, not only housing. While high interest rates may not be slowing housing as much as in prior tightening cycles, it is nonetheless having an impact on other sectors of the economy. For example, auto loan and credit card delinquencies have increased from very low levels and are now at rates higher than existed before the pandemic, indicating that some consumers are feeling stress from increased borrowing costs. Overall, however, economic activity, consumer spending and the labor market have proven surprisingly resilient.

The FOMC has undeniably tightened policy meaningfully, both relative to the pre-pandemic period and to some prior tightening cycles. Nonetheless, it is hard for me to explain the robust economic activity that has persisted during this cycle. My colleagues and I are of course very happy that the labor market has proven resilient, but, with inflation in the most recent quarter moving sideways, it raises questions about how restrictive policy really is. If policymakers and market participants are misperceiving the neutral policy rate, that could explain the constellation of data we are observing. This is also a communication challenge for policymakers. In my own Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) submission, I have only modestly increased my longer-run nominal neutral funds rate level from 2 percent to 2.5 percent. The SEP does not provide a simple way to communicate the possibility that the neutral rate might be at least temporarily elevated.

1 These comments reflect my own views and may not necessarily represent the views of others in the Federal Reserve System or of the Federal Open Market Committee.

2 Conceptually, the real yield curve is a better measure of the stance of monetary policy than the nominal yield curve. That said, because nominal and real spreads have been quite similar over the past 18 months, the nominal spread in Figure 5 currently provides an equivalent measure of the stance of monetary policy. I plot nominal yields in Figure 5 simply because they are available for a longer time period than TIPS yields.

Related Content

Policy Has Tightened a Lot. How Tight Is It?

Policy Has Tightened a Lot. Is It Enough? (A Second Update)

The Interaction between Inflation and Financial Stability

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