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Pakistan: Five major issues to watch in 2023

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January 13, 2023

1. Political instability, polarization, and an election year

Politics will likely consume much of Pakistan’s time and attention in 2023, as it did in 2022. The country’s turn to political instability last spring did not end with a dramatic no-confidence vote in parliament last April that ousted then Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan from office. Instability and polarization have only heightened since then: Khan has led a popular opposition movement against the incumbent coalition government and the military, staging a series of large rallies across the country through the year.

The struggle for power in Pakistan continues into 2023. While the incumbent government has not ceded to Khan’s demand for early elections, country-wide elections are constitutionally mandated to be held by October this year. It benefits the government politically to hold them off as long as it possibly can as it tries to dig itself out of Pakistan’s urgent economic crisis and its lackluster domestic performance (its diplomatic foreign policy approach has fared better, but that may not matter for elections). The last year has cost it precious political capital, and Khan’s party did very well in a set of by-elections held in July and October. The state has tried to mire Khan and his party in legal cases, relying on a familiar playbook used against opposition politicians in Pakistan, albeit to limited effect, with the courts’ involvement.

Khan’s party still controls two of Pakistan’s four provinces, Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), and the incumbent federal government’s (extra-legal) efforts to try to wrest power from it in Punjab, the largest province, have been unsuccessful (thanks to the courts). The year is off to a dramatic start, with Khan’s party initiating the process to dissolve the Punjab and KP assemblies this month to pressure the federal government into early elections.

For politics-obsessed Pakistan, the biggest question remains who will win the next general election. Will former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif (brother of current Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif) return to Pakistan to run as the head of his party, the PML-N? Can Imran Khan win on the strength of his popular support, despite his confrontation with the military? Regardless of the outcome, we can say this much given the histories of the main contenders: The direction of the country is unlikely to change.

2. A precarious economic situation

Pakistan’s economy has been in crisis for months, predating the summer’s catastrophic floods. Inflation is backbreaking, the rupee’s value has fallen sharply, and its foreign reserves have now dropped to the precariously low level of $4.3 billion, enough to cover only one month’s worth of imports, raising the possibility of default.

An economic crisis comes around every few years in Pakistan, borne out of an economy that doesn’t produce enough and spends too much, and is thus reliant on external debt. Every successive crisis is worse as the debt bill gets larger and payments become due. This year, internal political instability and the flooding catastrophe have worsened it. There is a significant external element to the crisis as well, with rising global food and fuel prices in the wake of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The combination of all these factors has spelled perhaps the greatest economic challenge Pakistan has ever seen. Yet the government has been mired in politicking, and the release of a $1.1 billion loan tranche from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) remains stalled as Islamabad has pushed back on the IMF’s conditions. The government has now resorted to limiting imports and shutting down malls and wedding halls early, small measures that fail to adequately address the problem.

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Pakistan may end up avoiding default for the time being with IMF help and loans from friendly countries, especially Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations. But those won’t address the clear underlying malaise of the economy – and the fact that something fundamentally will need to change, in terms of how much the economy produces versus how much it spends, to avoid default down the road. But none of Pakistan’s political parties seem to have the political will or ability to bring about such change.

Pakistan must reportedly pay back $73 billion by 2025; it won’t be able to do so without debt restructuring.

3. Flood recovery

A “ monsoon on steroids ” – directly linked to climate change – caused a summer of flooding in Pakistan so catastrophic that it has repeatedly been described as biblical. It left a third of the country under water – submerging entire villages – killed more than 1,700, destroyed homes, infrastructure, and vast cropland, and left millions displaced.

More than four months after the worst of the flooding, nearly 90,000 people are still displaced from their homes, and the floodwater is still standing in some areas. It would be enormously difficult for any country to recover from such a disaster and rebuild lost infrastructure, including roads and schools, let alone a government dealing with a cash crunch like Pakistan’s.

But the Pakistani government – in particular the foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, who has visited the United States twice since the summer, and the minister for climate change, Sherry Rehman – has done an admirable job bringing awareness of the flooding catastrophe to the world stage. A donors’ conference Sharif co-hosted with the United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres in Geneva this month raised pledges for more than $9 billion for flood recovery over the next three years (the money is mostly in the form of project loans). Pakistan has also played an important role in discussions about the devastating effects of climate change on developing nations, spearheading the effort to place loss and damage on the agenda at COP27 for the first time, and pushing for COP delegates in Egypt to agree to a loss and damage fund.

With billions of dollars in help promised, the government has passed one hurdle. But the road for recovery ahead will be tough: Displaced people are still sleeping under open skies in Sindh province. Implementing a sustainable recovery will require enormous capacity, resources, and transparency in a country already mired in other troubles.

4. Mounting insecurity

The Pakistani Taliban (or TTP), the terrorist group responsible for killing tens of thousands of Pakistanis from 2007 to 2014, have been emboldened – predictably so – by a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, and once again pose a threat to Pakistan, albeit in a geographically limited region (for now). The group engaged in at least 150 attacks in Pakistan last year, mostly in the northwest. Because the TTP have sanctuary in Afghanistan, the Pakistani state increasingly finds itself out of options when it comes to dealing effectively with the group. The state’s negotiations with the TTP have failed repeatedly, as they are bound to, because the group is fundamentally opposed to the notion of the Pakistani state and constitution as it exists today. The Afghan Taliban have, unsurprisingly, also not proved to be of help in dealing with the TTP – and Pakistan’s relations with the Afghan Taliban have deteriorated significantly at the same time over other issues, including the border dividing the two countries.

At this point, Pakistan’s first preference will be to strike kinetically at TTP targets within its borders, but that will be limited by TTP movement across the border into Afghanistan. That movement is what leaves Pakistan with the difficult-to-resolve TTP issue and complicates things beyond the military operation it launched against the group in 2014. Still, the Pakistani Taliban at this point is not the biggest threat Pakistan faces, given the country’s major political and economic challenges – but left unchecked, it could morph into a significant crisis.

5. Civil-military relations

Pakistan has a new chief of army staff as of November 29 last year. General Asim Munir replaced General Qamar Javed Bajwa, who had held the all-powerful post for six years (due to a three-year extension). The appointment of the army chief was a subject of considerable political contention last year; a major part of the reason Khan was ousted from power was his falling out with the military on questions over the appointments of top army officials.

All eyes are now on how civil-military relations shape up under Munir. Under Bajwa, the military solidified its control over all manner of policy behind the scenes. Bajwa presided over a close “same-page” relationship with Khan; when that frayed, the PML-N was eager to take Khan’s place as the military’s ally and head of the civilian government. Bajwa left office saying the army would no longer be involved in political matters; few in Pakistan believe him. With politics set to dominate the agenda this year and an election imminent, Munir has a chance to show the country whether he will follow in his predecessor’s footsteps, or chart a new course for civil-military relations in Pakistan. Pakistan’s history indicates the former.

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The Current Situation in Pakistan

A USIP Fact Sheet

Monday, January 23, 2023

Publication Type: Fact Sheet

Pakistan continues to face multiple sources of internal and external conflict. Extremism and intolerance of diversity and dissent have grown, fuelled by a narrow vision of Pakistan’s national identity, and are threatening the country’s prospects for social cohesion and stability.   

The inability of state institutions to reliably provide peaceful ways to resolve grievances has encouraged groups to seek violence as an alternative. The country saw peaceful political transitions after the 2013 and 2018 elections. However, as the country prepares for anticipated elections in 2023, it continues to face a fragile economy along with deepening domestic polarization. Meanwhile, devastating flooding across Pakistan in 2022 has caused billions in damage, strained the country’s agriculture and health sectors, and also laid bare Pakistan’s vulnerability to climate disasters and troubling weaknesses in governance and economic stability.

Regionally, Pakistan faces a resurgence of extremist groups along its border with Afghanistan, which has raised tensions with Taliban-led Afghanistan. Despite a declared ceasefire on the Line of Control in Kashmir in 2021, relations with India remain stagnant and vulnerable to crises that pose a threat to regional and international security. The presence and influence of China, as a great power and close ally of Pakistan, has both the potential to ameliorate and exacerbate various internal and external conflicts in the region.

USIP’S Work

The U.S. Institute of Peace has conducted research and analysis and promoted dialogue in Pakistan since the 1990s, with a presence in the country since 2013. The Institute works to help reverse Pakistan’s growing intolerance of diversity and to increase social cohesion. USIP supports local organizations that develop innovative ways to build peace and promote narratives of inclusion using media, arts, technology, dialogues and education.

USIP works with state institutions in their efforts to be more responsive to citizens’ needs, which can reduce the use of violence to resolve grievances. The Institute supports work to improve police-community relations, promote greater access to justice and strengthen inclusive democratic institutions and governance. USIP also conducts and supports research in Pakistan to better understand drivers of peace and conflict and informs international policies and programs that promote peace and tolerance within Pakistan, between Pakistan and its neighbors, and between Pakistan and the United States.

USIP’s Work in Pakistan Includes:

Improving police-community relations for effective law enforcement

The Pakistani police have struggled with a poor relationship with the public, characterized by mistrust and mistreatment, which has hindered effective policing. USIP has partnered with national and provincial police departments to aid in building police-community relationships and strengthening policing in Pakistan through training, capacity building and social media engagement.

Building sustainable mechanisms for dialogue, critical thinking and peace education.

Nearly two-thirds of Pakistan’s population is under the age of 30. Youth with access to higher education carry disproportionate influence in society. However, Pakistan’s siloed education system does not allow interactions across diverse groups or campuses, leading to intolerance, and in some cases, radicalization. To tackle growing intolerance of diversity on university campuses, USIP has partnered with civil society and state institutions to support programs that establish sustainable mechanisms for dialogue, critical thinking and peace education.

Helping Pakistanis rebuild traditions of tolerance to counter extremists’ demands for violence

USIP supports local cultural leaders, civil society organizations, artists and others in reviving local traditions and discourses that encourage acceptance of diversity, promote dialogue and address social change. USIP also supports media production — including theater, documentaries and collections of short stories — which offer counter narratives to extremism and religious fundamentalism.

Support for acceptance and inclusion of religious minorities

Relations between religious communities in Pakistan have deteriorated, with some instances of intercommunal violence or other forms of exclusion. USIP supports the efforts of local peacebuilders, including religious scholars and leaders, to promote interfaith harmony, peaceful coexistence and equitable inclusion of minorities (gender, ethnic and religious) in all spheres of public life.

Supporting inclusive and democratic institutions

To help democratic institutions be more responsive to citizens, USIP supports technical assistance to state institutions and efforts to empower local governments, along with helping relevant civil society actors advocate for greater inclusion of marginalized groups. Gender has been a major theme of this effort and across USIP’s programming in Pakistan. These programs empower women in peacebuilding and democratic processes through research, advocacy and capacity building.

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At midnight on the night of February 24-25, 2021, India and Pakistan reinstated a cease-fire that covered their security forces operating “along the Line of Control (LOC) and all other sectors” in Kashmir, the disputed territory that has been at the center of the India-Pakistan conflict since 1947. While the third anniversary of that agreement is a notable landmark in the history of India-Pakistan cease-fires, the 2021 cease-fire is fragile and needs bolstering to be maintained.

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Days after Pakistan’s February 8 general election, the Election Commission of Pakistan released the official results confirming a major political upset. Contrary to what most political pundits and observers had predicted, independents aligned with former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won the most seats at the national level, followed by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM). No party won an absolute majority needed to form a government on its own. The resultant uncertainty means the United States may have to contend with a government that is more focused on navigating internal politics and less so on addressing strategic challenges.

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Surprisingly, candidates aligned with former Prime Minister Imran Khan won the most seats in Pakistan’s elections. But while voters “have shown their faith in democracy,” the lack of a strong mandate for any specific leader or institution “doesn’t necessarily bode well for [Pakistan’s] stability,” says USIP’s Tamanna Salikuddin.

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The February 2021 ceasefire between India and Pakistan along the Line of Control in Kashmir has—despite occasional violations—turned into one of the longest-lasting in the countries’ 75-year shared history. Yet, as Christopher Clary writes, the ceasefire remains vulnerable to shocks from terrorist attacks, changes in leadership, and shifting regional relations. With the ceasefire approaching its third anniversary, Clary’s report examines the factors that have allowed it to succeed, signs that it may be fraying, and steps that can be taken to sustain it.

Type: Special Report

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Pakistan’s political crisis, briefly explained

An end to Pakistan’s constitutional crisis. But a political crisis endures.

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Editor’s note, April 10: Sunday, Imran Khan received a vote of no confidence from the Pakistani parliament, losing his position as prime minister. A vote on a new prime minister is expected as soon as Monday.

One of Pakistan’s twin crises was resolved this week. The other one, not so much.

On Thursday, the country’s supreme court delivered a historic ruling that resolved a constitutional crisis that took shape last week. The court rebuked Prime Minister Imran Khan, a self-fashioned populist leader and former cricket star who is more celebrity than statesman. Khan, the court ruled, had acted unconstitutionally when he dissolved Pakistan’s Parliament last week in order to avoid losing power through a no-confidence vote.

It was a surprising and reassuring decision, experts in the country’s politics said, given the supreme court’s checkered record as a sometime political ally of Khan. On Thursday, the court sided with the rule of law.

But the underlying political crisis that led to the court’s landmark order endures.

Khan outlandishly blamed the opposition parties’ efforts to oust him on a US-driven foreign conspiracy. Now, the Parliament has been restored and will continue with its no-confidence vote against Khan’s premiership Saturday, likely leading to his ouster and extraordinary elections later this year. Khan, for his part, said that he would “ fight ” back.

The broader political crisis, however, can be traced to the 2018 election that brought Khan to power. Traditionally, the military is the most significant institution in Pakistan, and it has often intervened to overthrow elected leaders that got in its way. Khan’s rise is inextricable from military influence over politics , and the incumbent prime minister accused the military of a soft coup for manipulating the election in Khan’s favor.

It was a “very controversial election,” says Asfandyar Mir, a researcher at the United States Institute of Peace. “There was a major question over the legitimacy of that electoral exercise and the government that Khan formed could just never escape the shadow of the controversy surrounding that election,” Mir explained.

More recently, the relationship between the military and Khan has worsened, and that gave the political opposition an opening to act against him. Though it’s not known what role the military played in the supreme court’s ruling, experts note that the harshness of the court’s order suggests the military’s buy-in. “This is part of a larger history of instability in Pakistan in which prime ministers are ousted from power, because they lose the support of Pakistan’s military,” Madiha Afzal, foreign policy fellow at the Brookings Institution, told Vox.

But “even if the court was influenced by the military, it took the right decision,” she says.

Khan’s position weakened domestically

The political and economic situation set the stage for a challenge to Khan.

After running on a campaign that promised less corruption and more economic opportunity for the poor, Khan has failed to deliver. Inflation is climbing , unemployment is soaring , and a billion-dollar program from the International Monetary Fund has not helped stabilize matters. An international investigation into offshore money from last year, known as the Pandora Papers , showed that Khan’s inner circle had moved money abroad to avoid taxes, in contradiction with Khan’s populist rhetoric.

Khan presided over an anti-corruption witch hunt targeting opposition parties. Indeed, the opposition parties, many of them composed of dynastic leadership and families with old money, are corrupt , and their attempt to oust Khan can be seen as a move to evade further scrutiny, Mir said.

Still, that anti-corruption effort brought the government bureaucracy to a halt. And it’s part of Khan’s broader strongman-style approach to governing that has been ineffective .

Since his start in politics, Khan has depended on the courts. Yasser Kureshi, a researcher in constitutional law at the University of Oxford, says Khan has built his political standing on backing the judiciary. “Imran Khan’s political platform has been built around an anti-corruption populism, where he charges the political class for being corrupt, and in the last 15 years the supreme court has been on a spree of jurisprudence targeting the political corruption of Pakistan's traditional parties,” he explains. “Khan has been the biggest supporter of this jurisprudence as it has validated and legitimized his politics.”

Now, the court appears to have turned against him at a time when the military has also lost faith in Khan. “With Imran Khan, I think that the problem for him is that right now, he has no institutional solutions that he can really turn to,” says Kureshi.

Khan’s relationship with the US has also cooled

Pakistan is a nuclear-armed country with a population of 220 million; it has built the sixth-largest military in the world, and has clout as a leader in the Islamic world. A longtime participant in the US war on terrorism, Pakistan has also been a conflicted partner, criticized for at times abetting the Taliban .

Khan was elected in 2018, and Mir says that, two years in, the military’s relationship to him began to cool. Khan feuded with the army chief over foreign policy issues, and the military saw Khan’s poor governance as a liability. Last year, Khan’s delays in signing off on a new intelligence chief prompted speculation of more divides between the two.

President Joe Biden did not phone Khan in his initial days in office, though he did call the leader of India , Pakistan’s chief rival. “The Biden administration’s cold shoulder to Imran Khan rubbed him the wrong way,” said Afzal. “Pakistan has just fallen off a little bit of the radar in terms of high-level engagement.”

Khan’s public messaging as a strongman has partially been responsible for agitating the relationship with the US — and by extension, his relationship with the Pakistani military, which wants to be closer to the US.

Most recently, that chill was expressed by Khan’s decision to stay neutral in Russia’s war on Ukraine; Khan visited Moscow just in advance of Russia’s invasion.

And, now, he’s turned to accusations of conspiracy: that the opposition’s stand against him is manufactured by the US. The origins of Khan’s incendiary claims appear to be a diplomatic cable that Pakistan’s ambassador to Washington sent home last month after a meeting with senior State Department official Donald Lu. Whatever criticisms Lu may have conveyed about Pakistan’s foreign policy, Khan’s interpretation of the memo has clearly been blown out of proportion. “When it comes to those allegations, there is no truth to them,” State Department spokesperson Ned Price said last week.

It’s an open question whether his argument will resonate among a Pakistani populace who is suspicious of the United States. One group it’s likely not resonating with: Pakistan’s powerful military.

Khan is “critical of the United States to a point that makes the military uncomfortable,” said Shamila Chaudhary, an expert at the New America think tank. “The way he’s talking about the United States is preventing the US relationship with Pakistan from being repaired, and it needs to be repaired.”

Meanwhile, the Biden administration’s focus in Asia has been on great-power competition with China and two national security crises (the Afghanistan withdrawal and Russia’s Ukraine invasion). The sloppy withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan furthered the disconnect between Washington and Islamabad, according to Chaudhary, and further upset Pakistan’s government.

Robin Raphel, a former ambassador who served as a senior South Asia official in the State Department from 1993 to 1997, described Biden’s outlook to Pakistan as a “non-approach approach.”

“I’m a diplomat, and, I believe you get more with honey than vinegar,” she said. “It would have been more than worth it for the president to take five minutes to call Imran Khan.”

The US did send its top State Department official for human rights, Uzra Zeya, to the Organization of Islamic Countries summit in Pakistan last month. Zeya also met with the country’s foreign minister and senior officials, as the two countries celebrated the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations.

But there hasn’t been more than that in terms of a positive message for the US-Pakistan relationship in light of the recent political and constitutional crises in the country. Price’s recent comments on the situation were brief: “We support Pakistan’s constitutional process and the rule of law.”

What happens next

Once the Parliament completes its no-confidence vote, which may happen as soon as today, it will dissolve the government. The country’s electoral commission will then oversee a caretaker government that will likely be headed by the leader of the opposition, Shehbaz Sharif . (Sharif is the brother of Nawaz Sharif , a former prime minister himself, who is currently living in exile in the UK as he faces accusations of corruption.) And, in that forthcoming vote, Khan will most probably lose .

But even the specifics of those elections are contentious. Khan had asked the electoral commission to set a date within the next 90 days; opposition politicians told NPR that reforms are needed before the next vote, otherwise they say the military will “rig” the next elections.

Long-term, things are even less clear. Among civil society leaders in Pakistan, there is agreement that the supreme court’s ruling is good for constitutionalism. But it may also be a vehicle for further expansion of the judiciary’s ability to intervene in politics.

Kureshi, an expert on the courts of Pakistan and how they have increasingly become the arbiter of politics in the country, says the bigger takeaways won’t be fully understood until the court releases the full text of its ruling in the next month or so. That detailed order may set other legal precedents and even cast the opposition in a bad light.

After the immediate euphoria of keeping Khan’s audacious unconstitutional maneuver in check, that judgment may say a lot about how the court sees itself, especially its supervisory role over the parliament and prime minister.

“The elected institutions are deeply constrained by the tutelage of overly empowered unelected institutions, whether it is the military, historically, or the judiciary more recently,” said Kureshi. “Judgments like this give them an opportunity to further affirm and expand that role.”

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An Economic Crisis in Pakistan Again: What’s Different This Time?

Photo: AAMIR QURESHI/AFP/Getty Images

Critical Questions by Daniel F. Runde and Ambassador Richard Olson

Published October 31, 2018

Pakistan’s newly-elected government is already dealing with a balance of payments crisis, which has been a consistent theme for the nation’s newly elected officials. Pakistan’s structural problems are homegrown, but what is different this time around is an added component of Chinese debt. Pakistan is the largest Belt and Road (BRI) partner adding another creditor to its already complicated economic situation.

Pakistan’s system is ill-equipped to make changes which would avoid future excessive debt. A bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is probably the safest bet for the country although it is unclear whether the United States will support the program. How Pakistan decides to handle its debt crisis could provide insight into how the U.S., IMF, and China will resolve development issues in the future. Beijing is a relatively new player in the development finance world so much is to be learned from how it deals with Pakistan and how it could possibly maneuver in other developing countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

Q1: What is Pakistan’s current financial and economic situation?

A1: Pakistan held its most recent elections in July 2018. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party gained over 100 seats in the parliament, and its founder Imran Khan , a famous cricket team captain, was installed as prime minister. Prime Minister Khan has inherited a balance of payments crisis , the third one in the last 10 years. By the end of June 2018, Pakistan had a current account deficit of $18 billion , nearly a 45 percent increase from an account deficit of $12.4 billion in 2017. Exorbitant imports (including those related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)) and less-than-projected inflows (export revenues and remittances) have led to a current account deficit widening, with foreign currency reserves levels covering less than two months of imports—pushing Pakistan towards a difficult economic situation .

Part of Pakistan’s financial crisis stems from the fact that 2018 was a poor year for emerging markets. Global monetary tightening, increased oil prices, and reduced investor confidence have negatively impacted the country’s already precarious economic situation. But the country’s deep structural problems and weak macroeconomic policies have further exposed the economy to an array of debt vulnerabilities.

Pakistan has had an overvalued exchange rate, low interest rates, and subdued inflation over the last few years. This loose monetary policy has led to high domestic demand, with two-thirds of Pakistan’s economic growth stemming from domestic consumption. An overvalued exchange rate has led to a very high level of imports and low level of exports. Pakistan’s high fiscal deficit was accelerated even further in 2017 and 2018 because elections have historically caused spending to rise (both of the most recent fiscal crises followed elections). Perhaps the greatest financial issues facing Pakistan are its pervasive tax evasion and chronically low level of domestic resource mobilization. Taxes in Pakistan comprise less than 10 percent of GDP , a far cry from the 35 percent of countries that are part of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Pakistan also suffers from impediments in the energy sector through frequent and widespread power outages that hurt its competitiveness.

In Western media, Chinese investment is often cited as the main driver of Pakistan’s debt crisis. This is somewhat true as China’s BRI makes Pakistan a key partner through the shared CPEC. The CPEC is a $60 billion program of infrastructure, energy and communication projects that aims to improve connectivity in the region. CPEC infrastructure costs have certainly placed a greater debt burden on Pakistan, but the current structural problems are homegrown; the root cause of the energy shortages is now less a matter of power generation, and more of fiscal mismanagement of the power sector .

Q2: What are Pakistan’s options?

A2: Pakistan appears to be in perpetual crisis-mode, and for too long the Pakistani government has been overly reliant on U.S. bilateral assistance. While it may not be the first choice of the Pakistani government, an IMF bailout is the most likely outcome of this financial crisis because it is probably the only path for Pakistan to regain its macroeconomic stability. Any “bailout” from a bilateral donor (meaning China or Pakistan’s Gulf State friends, including Saudi Arabia which has recently provided Pakistan $3 billion for a period of one year as balance-of-payment support) will not get at the root issues that Pakistan faces—its loose macroeconomic, fiscal, and monetary policies. Pakistan needs to get its house in order and remedy many of its domestic economic issues. 18 out of Pakistan’s 21 IMF programs over the last 60 years have not been completed despite obtaining over $30 billion in financial support across those programs. Just like today’s current financial crisis, Pakistan’s last two IMF packages (in 2008 and 2013) were also negotiated by incoming governments.

Q3: Would the U.S. support a new IMF Pakistan program?

A3: The current U.S. administration and Congress would not be supportive of additional bilateral funding to Pakistan—meaning money coming directly from the United States. Since 2001, Pakistan has been the beneficiary of the U.S. Coalition Support Fund (CSF), which reimburses allies for costs incurred by war on terrorism. The CSF is used to reimburse Pakistan for U.S. military use of its network infrastructure (e.g., ports, railways, roads, airspace) so that the United States can prosecute the war in neighboring Afghanistan, as well as certain Pakistani military counter-terrorism operations. The CSF for Pakistan has been as high as $1.2 billion per year, and, in recent years, $900 million per year. With nearly $1 billion in CSF distributed every year, along with $335 million in humanitarian assistance, it will be difficult to convince Congress to appropriate more funds for a Pakistan bailout yet. However, due to inaction on the part of Pakistan to expel or arrest Taliban insurgents operating from Pakistani territory, the United States has recently cut another $300 million from the CSF, bringing the total to $850 million in U.S. assistance withheld from Pakistan this year. In fact, all security assistance to Pakistan, whether it is international military education and training, foreign military financing, or the CSF, has been suspended for this year according to one State Department official.

An IMF program for Pakistan faces resistance from some members of Congress. A group of 16 senators has already signed a letter to President Trump that outlines their opposition to bailing out Pakistan because the IMF package would, in effect, be bailing out Chinese banks.

The Trump administration has also taken a hardline stance towards assisting Pakistan with its financial crisis. Secretary of State Pompeo stated this past July that he would not support an IMF bailout that went towards paying off Chinese loans. In September, Secretary Pompeo visited Pakistan, and there were indications that the United States would not block an IMF program. If an IMF program is enacted, there is no doubt that it would have stronger conditionality and a greater insistence on full transparency of Pakistan’s debt obligations.

Q4: Would an IMF package be a bailout of the Chinese?

A4: The terms of Pakistan’s loans with China are currently unclear and multiple news outlets have reported that Pakistan has refused to share CPEC information with the IMF. However, it is not unreasonable to presume that the terms in those contracts would be more demanding than terms typically asked by the IMF. Unless the terms between Pakistan and China and its state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are disclosed and made clear to the IMF, then it is unwise for the IMF to proceed with a bailout package.

The IMF’s focus is not in projecting power and influence; rather it seeks to help struggling nations get back on their feet. The same cannot be said for China. China appears to be most interested in spreading its influence and gaining valuable assets for its military and expanding economy, while at the same time exporting its surplus capacity for infrastructure building. In its annual report to Congress, the Department of Defense reiterated this concern, “countries participating in BRI [such as Pakistan] could develop economic dependence on Chinese capital, which China could leverage to achieve its interests.”

Of Pakistan’s nearly $30 billion trade deficit, 30 percent is directly attributable to China . If China were concerned about the economic crisis in Pakistan, it would make immediate concessions which Pakistan Finance Minister Asad Umar says China is working on . To help with the crisis, China could readjust its trade surplus with Pakistan in different ways. For example, China could buy Pakistani cement and other purchases in the short term to illustrate that they are aware of and swiftly responding to the economic turmoil in Pakistan. Other nations have struggled with debt obligations to China. For instance, in July 2017, Sri Lanka signed over a 99-year lease for Hambantota Port to a Chinese SOE because of Sri Lanka’s inability to pay for BRI costs. Malaysia took a different path and decided to cancel major infrastructure projects with China in August 2018 due to worries that they would increase its debt burden .

Q5: What are the consequences if there is no IMF package?

A5: It is likely that China will provide even more assistance to broaden Pakistan’s dependency. Chinese banks and SOEs have already invested heavily into Pakistan, so much so that state bank loans have not been fully disclosed to the global community. In fact, Pakistan’s Status Report for July 2017 through June 2018 shows that Chinese commercial banks hold 53 percent of Pakistan’s outstanding commercial debt. However, that percentage may be even higher than the report depicts. While China and Pakistan have agreed to make all CPEC projects readily available to the public, the information is scattered and often left blank on essential financial reports (see July-June 2017 document ), and so it is difficult to obtain a full sense of the degree of Pakistan’s indebtedness to China. Again, much of the loan information provided by the Pakistani government, especially concerning China, is not entirely transparent.

If China chooses to follow through and become the “point person” for an assistance package, the pressure will be taken off the IMF. But, if the United States does not support an IMF package, it will forego major geopolitical potential in the region to its main competitor, China.

Pakistan represents a litmus test of all future cases in which the IMF, United States, China, and any emerging market country are all involved. Depending on how Beijing chooses to navigate Pakistan’s financial crisis, China may soon find itself responsible for rectifying the debt burdens of Zambia and many other BRI countries.

Q6: What are U.S. geopolitical “equities” in Pakistan?

A6:  The United States is invested in Pakistan because of its significant geopolitical importance.

• Pakistan is an important component of the balance of power in South Asia. Both India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons capabilities. Moreover, China, India, and Pakistan have been in dispute over the Kashmir region since 1947. Regional stability is in the interest of the United States.
• Despite its ambiguous stance on militant groups, Pakistan is ostensibly an ally of the United States because of its proximity to Afghanistan. Since the War on Terror began in 2001, Pakistan has been an active partner in the elimination of core al Qaeda within Pakistan and has facilitated aspects of the U.S. military campaign in Afghanistan.
• The United States now seeks a negotiated settlement to the conflict in Afghanistan. To accomplish this, perhaps the United States will come to Pakistan with a simple offer: “deliver the Taliban, and we will give you the IMF.”
• Whereas previous administrations may have tried to “play nice” with Pakistan, under the Trump administration, there is a chance that the U.S. government will push the IMF to adopt stricter terms for a Pakistan bailout, citing the Pakistani government’s failures of the last two programs.
• Other than strategic military importance, one of the most important national security challenges to the United States is Pakistan’s demographic trends. Currently, over 64 percent of Pakistanis are under the age of 30—the largest percentage of youth in the country’s history. Over the next 30 years, Pakistan’s population will increase by over 100 million, jumping from 190 million to 300 million by 2050 . The spike in youth population presents an opportunity for the U.S. government and private sector to increase investment in Pakistan. Pakistan’s economy must generate 1 million jobs annually for the next three decades and GDP growth rates must equal 7 percent or more per year to keep up with the population boom. Were Pakistan’s economy to collapse, the world would see the first instance of a failed state with a substantial arsenal of nuclear weapons.
• An economically healthy Pakistan could be a large market for U.S. goods and services. If the U.S.-Pakistan relationship is strained as a result of this financial crisis, it will not only harm the United States militarily but will also harm U.S. businesses and Pakistani consumers.

Q7: Should the U.S. support an IMF package to Pakistan?

A7: Given the geostrategic importance of Pakistan for the United States, we should support a package but with stronger conditionality than in 2013 along with full transparency and disclosure of its debt obligations.

Daniel F. Runde is senior vice president, director of the Project on Prosperity and Development, and holds the William A. Schreyer Chair in Global Analysis at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Richard Olson is a non-resident senior associate at CSIS. He is the former U.S. ambassador to the United Arab Emirates and Pakistan; most recently he served as the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan during the Obama administration. Special thanks to CSIS Project on Prosperity and Development program coordinator Owen Murphy and intern Austin Lucas for their contributions to this analysis.

Critical Questions   is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

© 2018 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.

Daniel F. Runde

Ambassador richard olson, programs & projects.

• Project on U.S. Leadership in Development

The World Bank In Pakistan

Pakistan has important strategic endowments and development potential. The increasing proportion of Pakistan’s youth provides the country with a potential demographic dividend and a challenge to provide adequate services and employment.

Pakistan’s strong post-pandemic recovery came to a halt in FY23 with large accumulated economic imbalances that resulted from the delayed withdrawal of accommodative policy, and a series of domestic and external economic shocks. Pressures on domestic prices, external and fiscal balances, the exchange rate, and foreign exchange reserves mounted amid surging world commodity prices, global monetary tightening, recent catastrophic flooding, and domestic political uncertainty. Confidence and economic activity collapsed due to import controls, periodic exchange rate fixing, creditworthiness downgrades, and ballooning interest payments. Poverty is estimated to have increased due to deteriorating wages and job quality, along with high inflation that eroded purchasing power, particularly for the poor.

Pakistan’s economy is estimated to have contracted in FY23, after two consecutive years of stellar growth. Overall, real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have declined by 0.6 percent in FY23 after growing by 6.1 percent in FY22 and 5.8 percent in FY21. Floods caused heavy damage to crops and livestock, while difficulties securing critical inputs, including fertilizers, further slowed agriculture output growth. With 44 percent of poor workers relying on agriculture, weak agricultural performance had significant poverty impacts. Supply chain disruptions due to import restrictions and flood impacts, high fuel and borrowing costs, political uncertainty, and weak demand affected industry and service sector activity, and dampened private investment. Private consumption also shrank with weakened labor markets and surging inflation. This likely reduced the labor incomes of millions of workers, especially those who moved to lower-productivity informal jobs.

Economic growth is expected to remain sluggish and downside risks to the outlook will remain exceptionally high. The approval of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) in July 2023 unlocked new external financing and averted a balance of payments crisis. Even with the SBA, reserves are expected to remain low, necessitating continued import controls and constraining economic recovery. Real GDP growth is projected to reach only 1.7 percent in FY24 and 2.3 percent in FY25. The agriculture sector is expected to recover on the back of higher production of important crops, including cotton and rice. Marginal easing of import restrictions is expected to support some recovery in the industrial sector, particularly large-scale manufacturing. Flow-on impacts from the strengthening agriculture and industrial sectors will support a revival in associated services sectors including wholesale and retail trade, and transport and storage. However, high inflation due to increasing domestic energy prices and continued depreciation is likely to keep economic activity subdued. Recovery in private investment and exports will be marginal in the absence of broader reforms. With the resumption of growth, poverty expected to decline to 37.2 percent in FY24.

The economic outlook and short-term macroeconomic stability are predicated on the robust implementation of the SBA, continued fiscal restraint and external financing inflows. Financial sector instability and policy slippages due to social tensions pose significant risks. Continued high inflation, localized insecurity, and weak growth increase vulnerability to falling into poverty and worsen the situation of the existing poor. More than 10 million people are currently just above the poverty line, and at risk of becoming classified as poor if the situation deteriorates. Without further reforms, risks will remain exceptionally high, economic activity will remain constrained by import controls and weak confidence, while low investment and exports will undermine medium-term growth potential.

A more robust recovery will require an ambitious medium-term reform agenda focused on fiscal consolidation and enhancing competitiveness , supported by strong political ownership and commitment. The reforms would include measures to increase revenues by broadening the tax base, including from closing exemptions and tapping increased revenue from agriculture, retail, and property. It would also entail measures to rationalize fiscal expenditures, such as by reducing wasteful and regressive subsidy spending, and to restore private sector confidence through business regulatory reform and reforms to state-owned enterprises, and to address inefficiencies and high costs in the energy sector.

Last Updated: Oct 04, 2023

The  Country Partnership Strategy  (CPS) for Pakistan for FY2015-20 is structured to help the country tackle the most difficult—but potentially transformational—areas to reach the twin goals of poverty reduction and shared prosperity.

The Pakistan team continues to engage with stakeholders on the next Country Partnership Framework (CPF). The CPF will draw from several analytical works, including Pakistan Systematic Country Diagnostic: Leveling the Playing Field , and the recently published Country Climate Development Report and Country Economic Memorandum .

The four results areas of the current CPS are:

Transforming the energy sector:  WBG interventions are supporting improved performance of the energy sector by supporting reforms and investments in the power sector to reduce load shedding, expand low-cost generation supply, improve transmission, improve governance and cut losses.

Supporting private sector development:  A mix of budget support, investments and analytical work supports improvements in Pakistan’s investment climate, in overall competitiveness, agricultural markets and productivity, and skills development. 

Reaching out to the underserved, neglected, and poor:  Investments support financial inclusion, micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), women and youth (including through enrollment outcomes), fragile provinces/regions and poorer districts, social protection, and resilience and adaptation to the impact of climate change.

Accelerating improvements in service delivery:  At the federal and provincial levels the Bank supports increasing revenues to fund services and setting more ambitious stretch targets for areas that are not producing change fast enough (especially education and health). At a provincial level, this involves support to better service delivery in cities.

Cross cutting themes for the program include women’s economic empowerment, climate change and resilience, and regional economic connectivity.

The WBG has its third-largest portfolio of $14.8 billion in Pakistan ($10.8bn IDA, $3.8bn IBRD, $0.2mn in Trust funds and co-financings). The portfolio is supporting reforms and investments to strengthen institutions, particularly in fiscal management and human development. Partnerships are being strengthened at provincial levels, focusing on multi-sectoral initiatives in areas such as children's nutrition, education and skills, irrigated agriculture, tourism, disaster risk management, and urban development. Clean energy, and social/financial inclusion, both remain major priorities.

ENHANCING DISASTER RESILIENCE

Being one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change Pakistan is recurrently affected by catastrophes, including the unprecedented 2022 floods which affected an estimated 33 million people and resulted in US$14.9 billion in damages and US$15.2 billion in economic losses . Pakistan’s economy continues to suffer chronic strain from prevailing and likely future threats of hazards. Since the 2005 Pakistan earthquake, which led to nearly 73,000 deaths and caused damages to over 570,000 houses, the Bank has been supporting the Government of Pakistan in shifting to an anticipatory risk management approach. Initially, the Bank provided technical assistance to the government to highlight physical and fiscal risks from hazards, including risk assessments of federal and provincial capitals. In parallel, the Bank also used grant resources to build the capacity of Provincial Disaster Management Authority of Balochistan.

Following the floods of 2014, at the request of Government of Pakistan, the World Bank prepared the US$125 million IDA-funded Disaster and Climate Resilience Improvement Project (DCRIP) to support the restoration of flood protection infrastructure and strengthen government capacity to manage disasters and climate variability in Punjab. The project was successfully concluded in November 2021,achieving its intended development objectives and surpassing the targets for several key results indicators. DCRIP directly benefitted more than 8 million people, half of which are women. The project also repurposed US$7 million to support the Government of Punjab in the pandemic emergency response through procurement of personal protection and healthcare equipment.

In 2016, the Bank also prepared and delivered the US$100 million IDA-funded  Sindh Resilience Project  (SRP) to mitigate flood and drought risks in selected areas, and strengthen Government of Sindh's capacity to manage natural disasters. About 5.75 million people across the province have benefitted from project interventions till date. The drought mitigation component of the project, comprising construction of small groundwater recharge dams, has already started generating strong development impacts for the target communities. In 2021, the Bank approved an additional financing of US$200 million to scale up the small groundwater recharge dams component and set up an emergency rescue service for Sindh.

The Bank has also prepared and delivered the US$188 million IDA-funded Pakistan Hydromet and Climate Services Project which aims to strengthen Pakistan’s public-sector delivery of reliable and timely hydro-meteorological services and enhance community resilience to shocks. The Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC) was activated under this project to disburse US$150 million in response to the 2022 floods to provide cash assistance to 1.3 million flood affected families.

Furthermore, as part of comprehensive emergency response and rehabilitation support for 2022 floods, the Bank delivered two emergency projects for the province of Sindh, which was disproportionately affected by the catastrophe. The US$500 million IDA-funded Sindh Flood Emergency Rehabilitation Project aims to rehabilitate damaged infrastructure and provide short-term livelihood opportunities through cash-for-work in selected areas of Sindh affected by the 2022 floods. The project will also strengthen the capacity of the Government of Sindh to respond to the impacts of climate change and natural hazards through expansion of the Sindh Emergency Rescue Service (Rescue 1122) and enhancing the preparedness of relevant line departments. The Project is expected to benefit 2 million people through rehabilitated infrastructure while short term livelihood support will be provided to 100,000 households.

Similarly, the IDA-funded US$500 million Sindh Flood Emergency Housing Reconstruction Project aims to deliver beneficiary-driven, multi-hazard resilient reconstruction of core housing units damaged or destroyed in the floods of 2022 in selected districts of Sindh. The Project will support the provision of an estimated 350,000 housing subsidy cash grants and strengthen the capacity of the Government of Sindh by providing technical assistance for the overall housing reconstruction program.

The flood emergency response projects have made satisfactory progress till date. US$ 160 million has been utilized for infrastructure rehabilitation, benefitting more than 3 million people, and about US$100 million has been committed for tranche-based cash grants for housing support to 160,000 beneficiaries.  Efforts are ongoing to ensure the inclusion of eligible beneficiaries and putting emphasis on infrastructure resilience in design standards, which represent important steps towards enhancing overall resilience and building back better.

The Bank has also launched the Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) for Pakistan. The Pakistan CCDR provides analyses and policy recommendations on harmonizing efforts to achieve further economic growth and lower poverty rates, on the one hand, with the pursuit of a climate-resilient, low-carbon, and equitable development path, on the other. In light of the devastating 2022 heatwaves and floods and the country’s vulnerability profile, the CCDR strongly emphasizes the need to build long-term resilience. Further, it explores pathways for Pakistan to achieve deep decarbonization by 2050, and eventually reach net-zero emissions by 2070 without undermining its development ambitions.

Pakistan has made progress in mainstreaming the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in national policies and strategies, however, there is a slow progress in improving health outcomes. According to the maternal mortality survey in 2019, the country’s maternal mortality ratio  was 186 deaths per 100,000 live births down from 276/100,000 live births in 2006-07. Large gaps exist across provinces with Sindh and Balochistan having twice the number of maternal deaths as compared to the national average. The country also has one of the highest infant and under-5 mortalities in the region (62 and 74 deaths per 1,000 live births, respectively). Twenty-two percent of the children born have low birth weight with variations across provinces.

On average, access to quality reproductive, maternal, newborn, child, and adolescent health with nutrition services in Pakistan is inadequate, with regional disparities. About 49 percent of pregnant women do not receive the recommended four or more anti-natal care (ANC) visits essential for a safe and healthy pregnancy outcome. With 33.8 percent of births outside of health facilities, the risk of maternal and infant mortality and morbidity is high. 42 percent of women of reproductive age in Pakistan have anemia due to poor nutrition. At 3.6 births per woman, Pakistan’s fertility rate is still relatively high, and except for Punjab, adolescent fertility has increased, and modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR) has been low in the last decade at 25 percent. High fertility rate and teenage pregnancies contribute to poor maternal and child health outcomes which pose risks of death and illness.  Poor health affects all facets of women’s lives including delayed development milestones, education, learning skills and gainfully participating in the labor force.

Stunting rates for children under age 5 have dropped from 45% to 40.2% from 2013 to 2018. However, it is still high and large disparities exist among provinces. This prevalence varies from 36.4% in Punjab to 46.6% in Balochistan. The average annual rate of reduction since the last 2018 National Nutrition Survey has been estimated at only 0.5 percent, which is frighteningly slow to reach the national targets. Although the situation is worse in rural and poor households, more than 20 percent of under-5 children in the wealthiest income quintile are also stunted, meaning poverty is not the only driver of stunting.

Immunization coverage for children aged 12-23 months, increased considerably over the past 8-9 years from 54% in 2013 to 77% in 2022. In Punjab 89.6% of children are fully immunized while in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh and Balochistan 61%, 69.2%, and 37.7% are respectively fully vaccinated.

The World Bank has been supporting the health sector in Pakistan through national and provincial projects. The National Immunization Support Project (closed in June 2022) had supported immunization of children across the country and the Pandemic Response Effectiveness Project (closed in June 2023) prepared to respond COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan and strengthen national systems for public health preparedness. The National Health Support Program , approved in Fiscal Year 2023, supports the strengthening of equitable delivery and quality of essential health services at the primary level and the Sindh Integrated Health and Population Project , approved in Fiscal Year 2023, supports to improve quality health services in selected areas and restore and rehabilitate healthcare services impacted by floods. Provincial Human Capital Investment projects are being implemented in Balochistan, Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and they aim to improve utilization of quality health targeted and social services to the poor and vulnerable population. The World Bank recently signed (September 2023) a Punjab Family Planning Program, with the aim to improve modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR) in the province.

Sources: Pakistan Demographic & Health Surveys 2006-07 , 2012-13 & 2017-18 , Maternal Mortality Survey 2019 , National Nutrition Survey 2018 , Third-Party Verification Immunization Coverage Survey 2022

Actions to Strengthen Performance for Inclusive and Response Education (ASPIRE) is a 5-year US$200 million program that became effective in August 2020. The program is aimed at enhanced targeting of COVID-19 education response, generating improved learning opportunities for out-of-school children (OOSC) and at-risk students, and enabling stronger federal-provincial coordination and management. To date, the Ministry of Federal Education and Professional Training (MoFEPT) and the provincial education departments have achieved four Disbursement-Linked Results (DLR): adoption of National School Health and Safety Protocols, approval of National Education Response and Resilience Plan, provision of distance learning kits to 50,000 students across the country, and provision of hygiene and cleaning kits to 20,000 public schools nationwide. The activities planned in in FY23 mostly focused on construction and rehabilitation, communication campaigns, teachers training, multi-modal programs, and specific intervention related to Out of School Children (OOSC). The ASPIRE program has also been successful at leveraging the Inter-Provincial Education Ministerial Conference (IPEMC) and the Technical Steering Committee (TSC) platforms for improved coordination between the Federal and Provincial Education Departments.

Pandemic Response Effectiveness in Pakistan project (PREP) , initiated in April 2020, was closed in June 2023. Different donor organizations extended their support in the form of grants and loans to overcome the pandemic situation all over the world, especially to support the education sector. PREP was a US$187 million project of which US$17 million is the education component. The education component introduced distance-learning activities and the development and implementation of plans to ensure the continuity of learning including remote learning options, at all levels of education. These included TV /radio broadcasts, virtual networks of teachers, and other means of distance delivery of academic content at primary, secondary and higher secondary levels. The key activities that are being procured under PREP included: i) Teleschool initiative through Allama Iqbal Open University (AIOU), ii) Content procurement for Teleschool, iii) Strengthening of E-Taleem portal including Virtual Teacher Training (VTT) and Learning Management System (LMS) modules, iv) Development of VTT Training Modules/Courses v) Smart classrooms vi) Procurement and distribution of hand-held devices vii) Communication campaign viii) School on wheels, and ix) the monitoring and evaluation activities.

Data and Research in Education (DARE) is a US$10 million Bank Executed Trust Fund (BETF) provided by the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office alongside the ASPIRE program. The project supports Pakistan education sector’s response and recovery by providing technical assistance to the Federal Government, in order to strengthen the education data infrastructure and coordination mechanisms between the federal and provincial governments, enhance evidence-based decision making and improve targeting of programs to reduce inequality and gender-gap. The main components under DARE include strengthening the provincial-Federal education data management processes, enhancing sector coordination on student learning outcomes and improvement of sector monitoring, evaluation and decision making by supporting policy research and impact evaluations.

COVID 19 Response, Recovery, and Resilience in Education Project (RRREP)   - a Global Partnership for Education funded grant of US$19.85 million was successfully closed in November 2022. The project ensured learning continuity through a) broadcasting the digital content on National TV and Radio which reached around 2.7 million children across 58 lagging districts in Pakistan; b) contributed to the evolving EdTech ecosystem at the Federal level by enhancing the Ministry’s digital content library (6000 lessons for grades K-12) and mapping them to the National and Provincial Student Learning Outcomes; and c)  providing adequate infrastructure for the delivery of digital content. Moreover, to ensure safe school reopening post COVID-19, around 1.8 million children in over 12,000 primary schools received sanitizing and hygiene kits, as well as learning materials to lower barriers for re-enrollment and attendance. The Bank has also supported the government’s communication campaign on safe school practices as well as re-enrolment campaigns to encourage families to send their children back to schools once schools re-opened. The project also supported National strategic policy dialogue on strategies to mainstream Out of School Children (OOSC).

Under the 5-year Higher Education Development in Pakistan (HEDP) the World Bank supports research excellence in strategic sectors of the economy, improved teaching and learning and strengthened governance in the higher education sector. The project has been successful in bringing some key reforms in the sector, including: introduction of an Undergraduate Education Policy which established the criteria for Associate Degree and transition of all Bachelor’s Degree programs from two-years to four-years; research capacity development by providing competitive research, innovation, and commercialization grants, such as the Rapid Research Grants, for research on critical COVID-19 related topics and Innovative Seed Fund to support startups and entrepreneurs; expansion of digital connectivity and remote learning systems to ensure continuity of education during COVID-19 and capacity building trainings of faculty, especially females under the newly established National Academy for Higher Education. HEDP closes on June 30, 2024.

The World Bank supported Punjab with an reform program through the  Punjab Education Sector Project-III program (US$300 million), which closed  in June 2022. The Bank also supports interventions in the education sector in Punjab through the Human Capital Investment project (US$200 million, with US$30 million supporting strengthening and scale-up of early childhood education in 11 districts in South Punjab). The project supports the development of a 2-year early childhood education (ECE) curriculum and strengthening of ECE services in Punjab. Currently a minimum of 11,000 ECE classrooms meet new quality standards, which include the presence of a trained teacher and caregiver as well as a kit with instructional material. In addition, content for teaching and learning materials is being updated to ensure alignment with evolving curricula and standards.

The 5 year Sindh Early Learning Enhancement through Classroom Transformation (SELECT) project of $155 million, financed in part by the Global Partnership for Education grant ($55 million) supports the Sindh Education Sector Plan & Roadmap (SESPR) 2019–2024, focusing on 12 of 29 districts in Sindh, with the lowest performance on educational outcomes. Prioritized areas under SELECT include foundational literacy; teaching quality; classroom and provincial assessments improving access to elementary schools and enhancing the school learning environment, including in 250 flood-affected schools; proactive dropout mitigation (especially for girls) and transition from primary to secondary schooling through the development of a student attendance monitoring and redress system; and improved school and district-level governance which contribute to the achievement of its targets.

Balochistan

The Balochistan Human Capital Investment Project (BHCIP), which became effective in 2021, is implemented together with the health sector. The education component (US$17.75 million) focuses on the improved utilization of quality education services in selected refugee hosting districts. BHCIP funds the rehabilitation of schools and upgrading of primary schools to middle and high schools, merit-based hiring of additional teachers and strengthening of the education sector stewardship. To date, BHCIP has initiated the procurement of supplies for schools, including basic furniture, ECE classroom materials, science, and IT laboratory equipment. The project also aims to improve student assessment and teacher training across the province by supporting the Balochistan Assessment and Examination Commission and Provincial Institute of Teacher Education. Use of data for decision making and schools’ capacity to contribute to generating reliable data is another important element of the project that strengthens governance at school and district levels.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

In March 2021, the Government of Pakistan approved the US$200 million Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Human Capital Investment Project (KPHCIP) – a five-year project that aims to improve the availability, utilization, and quality of primary healthcare services and elementary education services in 4 districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The districts were selected because they have some of the highest refugee populations in the province. This financing includes a grant of US$62.5 million from the IDA18 regional sub-window for refugees and host communities (IDA-18 RSW). The education component (US$115 million) of the project will focus on improving the availability, utilization and quality of education services in selected districts for all children, especially refugees and girls. US$15M from the education component are being reallocated for flood rehabilitation and reconstruction in the original districts as well as 9 additional flood-affected refugee-hosting districts. A project restructuring is underway to accommodate flood response activities.

OPERATING IN CONFLICT AREAS

In the aftermath of the militancy crisis in 2009 in Pakistan, the Multi-Donor Trust Find (MDTF) for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), and Balochistan was established in August 2010 to support the reconstruction, rehabilitation, reforms, and other interventions needed to build peace and create the conditions for sustainable development. Round I of MDTF projects was implemented from August 2010 to March 2017 and focused on helping the provinces come out of the crisis and take strides towards conflict prevention and peacebuilding. Subsequently, Round II commenced in April 2017 and continues the drive towards reconciliation, peacebuilding and enhancing state- citizen trust by focusing on three pillars: (i) Growth and Jobs Creation; (ii) Improved Service Delivery; and (iii) Policy Reforms and Improved Governance.

The MDTF has approximately $283 million in net resources.

As of September 30, 2023, approximately US$252.1 million (99% of allocated funds) has been disbursed for government-executed activities, and approximately US$24.5 million (97% of allocated funds) for World Bank-executed activities.

The MDTF will close after over a decade long engagement on December 31, 2023. The work of the MDTF was particularly important after the passage of the Thirty-First Amendment to the Constitution by the National Assembly on May 24, 2018, which has merged the seven agencies of FATA with the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

The MDTF helped address an array of challenges faced in its target areas including the COVID-19 emergency. This included procurement of 55 ventilators, 19,000 N-95 masks, 1,500 canes for sanitizers, 25,000 gloves, 10,000 face shields, 1 million surgical masks, 60,000 viral transport medium kits, and five automated RNA extraction machines. Moreover, the ERKP project supported small and medium enterprises (SMEs) impacted by COVID-19 through provision of matching grants (MGs).  

The MDTF continues to achieve results towards under its three results areas of (i) Enhanced productivity and job creation (through entrepreneurship and skilled labor); (ii) Improved livelihoods and access to basic services; and (iii) Enhanced transparency and accountability in public service delivery, and effective resource management.

microcredit recipients received support through the Second Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund

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Pakistan’s political crisis and the imperatives of economic reform

Pakistan continues to reel from uncertainty as its political transition — ill-timed during a period of domestic and global economic tumult — has yet to consolidate. 

Political volatility during the new governing coalition’s first two months in power has led to policy paralysis. But this paralysis has begun to ease as the army has signaled support for the government and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) continues to press for austerity measures.

The IMF has made clear that it will only release the next $1 billion tranche from Pakistan’s $6 billion Extended Fund Facility if Islamabad raises fuel and electricity prices and takes aggressive measures to reduce the fiscal deficit. And the resumption of the IMF program is essential to unlocking assistance from other bilateral and multilateral partners and staving off a balance of payments crisis. As a result, the coalition led by the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) (PML-N) has finally started raising energy prices .

These measures will ease Pakistan’s twin deficit challenge, involving both fiscal and current account deficits, but they will also take a heavy toll on the average Pakistani. Inflation, which hit 13.8% in May , could rise to around 20% and remain in the double digits into next year. This will be a painful summer for Pakistanis as they're hit with a one-two punch of rising energy prices and electricity supply cuts .

Understandably, the PML-N would like other power brokers, including the army, to share the political burden of economic reform . Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has called for the adoption of a Charter of the Economy — a national consensus on economic reform.

The idea is sound, but politically infeasible right now. What is more important is for Pakistan’s current federal and provincial governments to go beyond firefighting and push forward essential reforms — including in agriculture, energy, and local governance — that are key to ensuring the country’s political and economic stability and long-term growth prospects. Indeed, it is in their political interest to do so.

Pakistan’s angry middle class

Pakistan’s power elite must recognize that this is an exceptional moment in the country’s history — an inflection point both politically and economically.

Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, once backed by the powerful army and Inter-Services Intelligence agency, is taking on the new government and the army leadership. Khan is not just backed by what one might call the “anti-elite elite,” but also by much of the middle class.

Sixty-two percent of those with a full secondary education or higher said they were “angry” about Khan’s ouster in an April survey conducted by Gallup Pakistan. Given widespread anti-U.S. sentiment, Khan’s claims of being deposed by an American "regime change” campaign have resonated with this demographic. But it’s not the only reason why they support him. Khan is also tapping into their resentment of the status quo.

In recent years, Pakistan’s middle class has been hit hard by unemployment and inflation. According to the Pakistan Human Development Report 2020 from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the real growth rate of per capita income for Pakistan’s middle class from the 2013-14 and 2018-19 fiscal years trailed that of the rest of the population (1.2% versus 1.8%). The unemployment rate of those with a college degree or higher surged from less than 5% in 2007-08 to over 16% in 2018-19. Pakistan has a seen an expansion of higher education, but there remains a mismatch between the skill sets and preferences of college graduates and the demands of employers. As the current government reduces blanket subsidies, replacing them with targeted cash transfers for the very poor, macroeconomic stabilization may largely come at the middle class’s expense. And that could have political as well as geopolitical ramifications.

Khan has fused the issues of inflation and national sovereignty by alleging that the Sharif government is afraid of incurring Washington’s wrath by following through on an agreement he claims to have made with Moscow for importing discounted Russian oil. He notes that New Delhi has ramped up imports of Russian oil and, as a result, has been able to avoid fuel price hikes.

A focused reform agenda

The big picture is this: Pakistan’s economy is working, but only for its elite. Sustained, rapid, and equitable economic growth has remained elusive due to policy distortions that serve its civilian and military elite.

The aforementioned UNDP report , produced by a team of Pakistani researchers led by Dr. Hafiz Pasha, offers an exceptional deconstruction of Pakistan’s political economy. It assesses that in the 2017-18 fiscal year alone, Pakistan’s corporate, feudal, and military elite received the equivalent of $13 billion in current dollar terms in “benefits and privileges” — roughly 7% of the country's GDP.

Reform is a long-term process. But Pakistan must make use of this “shock” period to redistribute allocations toward social protection and incentivize greater productivity. Delay is not an option. In the coming years, Pakistan’s challenges will only deepen due to climate change and rapid population growth. Pakistan is already one of the world’s 10 most populous countries and it will remain among those ranks as its population surges over the coming decades.

Pakistan needs a path toward sustained, rapid, and equitable economic growth that incorporates its fast-growing population into the labor market. But Pakistan is a net energy importer with a narrow export base. Periods of economic expansion have been consumption-driven and import-dependent. As a result, Pakistan’s economy overheats once growth passes the 5-6% range . It is vital that the current government devote its energy and reallocate resources toward facilitating export growth, improving agricultural productivity, and addressing the domestic fuel production deficit.

Pakistan’s agricultural sector has grown at an average rate of less than 2% since the 2014-15 fiscal year. Declining agricultural productivity, a rapidly growing population, increasing water stress, and the worsening effects of climate change are all exacerbating an already-serious food security challenge. The agricultural industry also contributes to the massive electric power industry arrears. Pakistan provides hundreds of millions of dollars in annual electric power subsidies for agricultural tube wells. And edible oils are among Pakistan’s top imports .

Policy experiments in Pakistan in recent years have identified solutions to these challenges. For example, conditioning the provision of low-interest loans for solar tube well installation on the use of high-efficiency irrigation systems or allowing net-metering can promote water conservation, lower input costs, and help curtail power sector debt.

Pakistan’s federal and provincial governments should also incentivize innovation in the private sector seed development industry and the local production of edible oils.

With domestic gas and oil reserves in decline, Pakistan’s vulnerability to surges in global fuel prices will grow. It needs to ramp up domestic energy exploration, promote renewables, and assess the feasibility of green hydrogen and ammonia production, especially in southern Balochistan.

Finally, Pakistan must strengthen the “last mile” of governance. Pakistani politicians often hail China’s model of governance, but few recognize the role of decentralization of power and empowerment of local governments in China’s growth story.

To their credit, Pakistan’s politicians banded together to devolve power to the provinces under the 18th Amendment. Yet most have been averse to devolving power down to elected local bodies, with some provincial governments repeatedly delaying local elections. That has left large metropolises like Karachi orphaned when it comes to local governance and stunts their ability to grow and develop independent sources of revenue, including through the issuance of bonds.

Political stability in Pakistan cannot be ensured simply through intra-elite deals made in Islamabad. It also requires improving the last mile of governance and the responsiveness of the state to the needs of the public.

Arif Rafiq is the president of Vizier Consulting LLC, a political risk advisory company focused on the Middle East and South Asia, and a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute (MEI). 

Photo by AAMIR QURESHI/AFP via Getty Images

The Middle East Institute (MEI) is an independent, non-partisan, non-for-profit, educational organization. It does not engage in advocacy and its scholars’ opinions are their own. MEI welcomes financial donations, but retains sole editorial control over its work and its publications reflect only the authors’ views. For a listing of MEI donors, please click her e .

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Pakistan political crisis latest updates: Khan removed as PM

News from April 9: Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan has been removed from office after no-confidence motion against him succeeds.

• Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan has been removed from office on Sunday after a no-confidence motion brought against him succeeds by a vote of 174-0.
• This is the first time a no-confidence motion against a prime minister of Pakistan has been successful.
• Speaker Asad Qaiser who was to preside over the vote, ordered by the Supreme Court, resigned prior to the vote.
• A defiant Khan says he is in a fight to protect the country’s sovereignty and has called his supporters to the streets to defy opponents determined to unseat him.
• Khan acted unconstitutionally last Sunday in blocking the no-confidence vote and dissolving parliament, the Supreme Court ruled on Thursday, ordering parliament to reconvene.

The live blog is now closed, thank you for joining us. Here are the updates for April 9.

9 Apr 2022 - 20:20 GMT

Keep reading

Pakistan’s pm khan ready to ‘fight’ ahead of no-confidence vote, pakistan court rules blocking vote to oust pm imran khan illegal, pakistani rupee falls to all-time low amid political crisis, how pakistan’s political crisis could play out in the coming days, ‘will not seek revenge’: sharif.

Opposition leader Shehbaz Sharif has said his party “will not seek revenge” in a brief speech in parliament after the vote.

“We will not put people in jails but the law will take its course,” he added.

Sharif thanked other opposition leaders for what he called their struggle and support, adding that “this unity will rebuild Pakistan”.

9 Apr 2022 - 19:35 GMT

Prime Minister Khan ousted from office

Khan has been removed from the prime minister’s office after the no-confidence motion against him succeeds in parliament by a vote of 174-0.

This is the first time the no-confidence motion against a prime minister of Pakistan has been successful.

9 Apr 2022 - 18:54 GMT

Voting on no-confidence motion begins

Sardar Ayaz Sadiq from the Prime MinisterL-N, now the presiding officer of the National Assembly, has ordered the no-confidence vote proceedings to start, minutes after Khan ally and parliament speaker Asad Qaiser resigned.

9 Apr 2022 - 18:44 GMT

Speaker of assembly resigns

The Speaker of National Assembly Asad Qaiser has resigned from his position, he announced in parliament.

“I have decided, keeping in view the letter which I’ll share with the Supreme Court, that I can no longer stay at the office of speaker,” Qaiser said.

I’ll ask Ayaz Sadiq form the PML-N to come and complete the legal procedure (hold voting on no-confidence motion), he said.

9 Apr 2022 - 18:19 GMT

Reports of change in army leadership false: Minister

Federal Minister of Information Fawad Chaudhry has denied local media reports that any change has been made in the army leadership.

حکومت کو آرمی چیف اور پاکستان کی افواج کی ادارہ جاتی تنظیم کا مکمل ادراک ہے ایسی افواہیں کہ فوج کی قیادت میں تبدیلی کا سوچا بھی جا رہا ہے انتہائ لغو اور بے بنیاد ہیں اور ایک منصوبے کے تحت پھیلائ جا رہی ہیں حکومت ان افواہوں کی مذمت کرتی ہے اور مکمل تردید کرتی ہے — Ch Fawad Hussain (@fawadchaudhry) April 9, 2022

9 Apr 2022 - 18:07 GMT

Lawyers’ body asks court to start contempt proceedings

The Supreme Court Bar Association (SCBA) has submitted a petition to the Supreme Court over the government’s failure to hold a vote of no confidence.

SCBA President Ahsan Bhoon told Geo TV that the court order is not being implemented and “extra-constitutional measures are being adopted by the government”.

9 Apr 2022 - 17:21 GMT

Army chief meets PM amid impasse over vote: sources

Pakistan’s army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa has met Prime Minister Khan amid an impasse over the no-confidence vote, two sources familiar with the situation told the Reuters news agency.

The vote is yet to happen despite the passage of nearly 12 hours since the session started.

9 Apr 2022 - 17:11 GMT

Khan not resigning, no vote tonight: AJ correspondent

Al Jazeera’s correspondent Osama Bin Javaid is reporting from Islamabad that according to a government source, voting will not take place tonight.

Moreover, Javaid tweeted the source said the diplomatic cable that Khan has used to accuse the US of regime change will be shown to the chief justice of Pakistan, speaker of the national assembly, the army chief and the senate chairman.

#Breaking : – #ImranKhan not resigning. – #ForeignConspiracy "letter to be shown to Cheif Justice, Army Chief, Speaker National Assembly, Chairman Senate. -There will be no vote tonight (as deadline for #voteofnoconfidence expires in two hours) A govt source tells @AJEnglish — Osama Bin Javaid (@osamabinjavaid) April 9, 2022

9 Apr 2022 - 17:03 GMT

National Assembly speaker agrees to hold voting

Speaker Asad Qaiser has reportedly agreed to hold voting on no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Khan.

The Speaker had a discussion with senior officials of the parliament house, who convinced the speaker not to flout the orders of the Supreme Court, news outlet Geo TV reported.

Meanwhile, there were reports that Supreme Court was ready to take up the matter if the voting does not take place.

9 Apr 2022 - 16:57 GMT

Supreme Court must take action against Khan: Opposition leader

Maryam Nawaz of the PML-N has urged Pakistan’s Supreme Court to take action against Prime Minister Khan and others for disobeying its decision to hold the no-confidence vote today.

“Supreme Court of Pakistan must take immediate suo motto notice of brazen violation of its decision & order arrests of Imran Khan, Speaker & Deputy Speaker before he blows everything up,” she tweeted.

Supreme Court of Pakistan must take immediate suo motto notice of brazen violation of its decision & order arrests of Imran Khan, Speaker & Deputy Speaker before he blows everything up. Bureaucracy/administrations should refuse to comply with any orders coming from the government — Maryam Nawaz Sharif (@MaryamNSharif) April 9, 2022

9 Apr 2022 - 16:54 GMT

Interactive: Inflation in Pakistan

9 Apr 2022 - 16:40 GMT

Parliament secretariat urges speaker to conduct vote: local media

According to Pakistani news outlet Geo News, the National Assembly Secretariat has asked Speaker Asad Qaiser to conduct the no-confidence vote against the prime minister.

The national assembly secretariat convinces speaker Asad Qaiser to conduct the vote, reports Geo News. — Benazir Shah (@Benazir_Shah) April 9, 2022

9 Apr 2022 - 15:33 GMT

PPP senator asks army to step in and resolve the crisis

Pakistan People’s Party Senator Mustafa Nawaz Khokhar has asked army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa to play a role if the government does not hold a vote of no confidence.

“If today the speaker and the government do not follow the clear order of the Supreme Court, then General Bajwa should play his role in this crisis,” Khokhar wrote on Twitter.

“Yes! He should also issue a statement saying that he stands by the Constitution, democracy and the decision of the Supreme Court like a professional soldier,” he added.

9 Apr 2022 - 15:11 GMT

Parliament proceedings face another delay

The National Assembly speaker has once again delayed the proceedings of the crucial session till 21:30pm (16:30 GMT).

Moments after the session resumed, opposition members rose up and started chanting “voting” – demanding a vote on the no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan.

9 Apr 2022 - 14:28 GMT

National Assembly speaker refuses to hold vote

Asad Qaiser has refused to hold a vote of no confidence against Khan, Geo TV reported.

The crucial session is once again on a break, this time for Iftar (opening fast) as opposition leaders are holding meetings to deal with the evolving situation.

9 Apr 2022 - 14:04 GMT

Pakistan only good to US when ‘subservient’: Minister

Human Rights Minister Shireen Mazari has accused the US of orchestrating regime change in Pakistan, and that relations between the two nations where only good when Islamabad was “subservient”.

“We don’t have a deep-seated relationship with the US, we have deep-seated subservience,” she said in parliament.

9 Apr 2022 - 13:40 GMT

PM Khan cabinet to meet as delay continues

Khan has called a cabinet meeting later today as the no-confidence vote was further delayed.

The cabinet will meet at 9pm (16:00 GMT) on Saturday, people familiar with the matter said, according to the Reuters news agency.

9 Apr 2022 - 12:30 GMT

PTI files review petition against Supreme Court decision

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) has filed a review petition against the Supreme Court order to delay a vote of no confidence.

On Thursday, the top court declared the speaker’s ruling which paved the way for the dissolution of assemblies as contrary to Pakistani law and the Constitution.

In its review petition, the PTI said that the court cannot interfere in parliament’s affairs, local media reported.

The move, according to legal experts, is aimed to delay the vote against Prime Minister Khan further.

9 Apr 2022 - 11:41 GMT

Minister accuses Supreme Court of interference in Parliament’s affairs

Pakistan’s minister of planning, Asad Umar, has criticised the Supreme Court, saying it had no right to interfere in the affairs of the parliament.

“The Supreme Court’s decision is an interference in the supremacy of the parliament,” said Umar, who is also a close aide of Prime Minister Imran Khan.

“We respect the Supreme Court, but we are not ready to give up our [parliamentary] rights,” he added while addressing the parliament.

9 Apr 2022 - 11:16 GMT

Committing contempt of court, Zardari tells gov’t

Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has accused the speaker of parliament, Asad Qaiser, of committing contempt of the court by delaying a vote of no confidence.

“A five-judge bench issued the order and you [the speaker] could not have taken any other agenda than voting on a no-confidence motion,” said Zardari. “Implement the court order,” he urged Parliament.

“We respect the order but the court cannot interfere in Parliament’s affairs,” member of PTI and officer Amjad Ali Khan said.

9 Apr 2022 - 10:02 GMT

Minister proposes in-camera session on ‘foreign conspiracy’

Resuming his speech in parliament, foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi has offered the opposition an in-camera session on foreign conspiracy if they had any doubts.

“Let’s go into an in-camera session and let the ambassador of Pakistan to the USA come and tell the house,” Qureshi said, adding that there had been “blatant attempts of regime change” in Pakistan.

Imran Khan has accused the United States of conspiring with the opposition to remove him.

9 Apr 2022 - 09:36 GMT

Parliament session to decide Khan’s fate resumes

The crucial National Assembly session to vote on a no-confidence motion moved by the opposition parties has resumed.

Speaker Asad Qaiser, a Khan ally, had said the session would resume at 12:30 pm (07:30 GMT), but there were no signs of parliament reconvening for more than three hours.

9 Apr 2022 - 09:03 GMT

‘Maniac’s fear of having to face the music’: Sharif

Maryam Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader and daughter of former premier Nawaz Sharif, has accused Prime Minister Imran Khan of trying to delay the vote of no confidence in parliament.

“A maniac’s fear of having to face the music has brought the entire country to a grinding halt and a complete standstill. The country of 22 crore (220 million) is without a government for weeks now,” she tweeted.

“This blatant violation of constitution and disregard to (Supreme Court) orders will be ugly and end badly.”

9 Apr 2022 - 08:40 GMT

Who is Shehbaz Sharif, frontrunner for next Pakistan PM?

Shehbaz Sharif, the person most likely to be Pakistan’s next prime minister, is little known outside his home country but has a reputation domestically as an effective administrator more than as a politician.

The younger brother of three-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif, Shehbaz, 70, is leading a bid by the opposition in parliament to topple Imran Khan, and if a vote of no-confidence goes ahead on Saturday he is widely expected to replace Khan.

Read more here .

9 Apr 2022 - 08:29 GMT

Parliament session delayed by 90 minutes

The crucial parliamentary session to vote on the opposition’s no-confidence motion is delayed.

The speaker had adjourned the session till 12:30pm (07:30 GMT), but the proceedings have not resumed 90 minutes later.

The opposition has accused the government of delaying tactics in holding the vote.

9 Apr 2022 - 08:10 GMT

Opposition leader asks speaker not to delay no-trust vote

Pakistan Peoples Party chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has met National Assembly Speaker Asad Qasier, asking him not to delay the voting, Geo TV has reported.

Zardari asked the speaker not to use “delaying tactics” and hold the voting at the earliest.

Pakistani analysts say the government is delaying the vote to “frustrate” the opposition.

PTI lawmaker @asmaqadeer4 is busy scrawling "Zameerfrosh Murdabad," "Amreeka ka Jo yar ha ghaddar ha" on placards while opposition members wait patiently for the session to begin Opposition alliance plans to vote out PM Imran Khan and elect Shehbaz Sharif new leader of the house pic.twitter.com/xyhwudVvZC — Aamir Saeed (@AamirSaeed_) April 9, 2022

9 Apr 2022 - 07:27 GMT

PML-N claims it has the numbers to remove Khan

Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) spokeswoman Marriyum Aurangzeb claims 176 members of the National Assembly will vote against Prime Minister Imran Khan.

In a tweet, the spokeswoman shared a break-up of legislators who she says are supporting the opposition’s no-confidence motion against Khan and are present in the house.

Update from National Assembly . Members present to vote for No Confidence against Imran Khan @pmln_org pic.twitter.com/t7Dd0rEAEc — Marriyum Aurangzeb (@Marriyum_A) April 9, 2022

9 Apr 2022 - 07:00 GMT

Will Imran Khan attend parliament session?

The embattled Prime Minister Imran Khan has not been seen in the parliament so far during the crucial session. The cricketer-turned-politician has often been criticised for not attending the proceedings of the house.

Neither Khan nor his party have issued any statement so far on whether Khan would attend the National Assembly, where a no-confidence motion against him is set to be put to vote.

The treasury benches look empty in the ongoing session, with a number of legislators from the ruling coalition deserting Khan and switching to the opposition alliance.

9 Apr 2022 - 06:33 GMT

Deputy speaker defends blocking April 3 no-trust vote

Parliament’s deputy speaker has defended his ruling which blocked the opposition’s no-confidence motion on April 3.

“How can you overlook direct attack on the state?” Qasim Suri told Geo TV, claiming he did not violate the constitution by his move, which was overturned by the Supreme Court on Thursday.

“The entire nation felicitated me and I am proud of my ruling,” Suri said. “The entire nation is still with Imran Khan”.

The Supreme Court can order ANY state organ to compel ANYONE to comply with its orders. It can also take Suo Motu notice of any attempt by Speaker, PM or President to obstruct implementation of its orders. — Najam Sethi (@najamsethi) April 9, 2022

9 Apr 2022 - 06:22 GMT

Khan’s PTI wants probe into ‘foreign conspiracy’

Before the National Assembly session was adjourned, Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi in his address referred to an alleged “foreign conspiracy” to topple the government.

Qureshi said the governing Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party wants a probe into the diplomatic cable in which a foreign country had threatened Pakistan.

Khan has accused the US of conspiring with the opposition to remove him.

9 Apr 2022 - 06:07 GMT

Speaker adjourns National Assembly session

The National Assembly Speaker Asad Qaiser has adjourned the meeting of the house until 12:30 pm (07:30 GMT) amid protest by the opposition leaders.

After reading details of a court ruling ordering the no-trust vote, which Khan’s allies had blocked last Sunday, Qaiser adjourned the session. He did not give a reason for halting the session before the vote.

9 Apr 2022 - 05:54 GMT

Shehbaz urges speaker to hold no-trust vote

The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) president Shehbaz Sharif has urged the parliament’s speaker to hold a vote on the no-confidence motion moved by the opposition.

“The Supreme Court declared steps taken by you and Prime Minister Khan as unconstitutional, so please hold a vote as per the court ruling,” he said.

“It is the moment and you must catch this moment with conviction and don’t follow a selected prime minister,” he said.

In response, Speaker Asad Qaiser said, “I have read the Supreme Court decision and will follow that in letter and spirit but we want to have a discussion on a ‘foreign conspiracy’.”

9 Apr 2022 - 05:32 GMT

Crucial parliament session starts

The crucial meeting of the National Assembly has started, with Speaker Asad Qaiser presiding over the session.

Orders of the day for the session of the National Assembly to be held on Saturday, the 9th April, 2022 at 10:30 a.m. #NASession @appcsocialmedia @PTVNewsOfficial @PTV_Parliament @demp_gov @GovtofPakistan pic.twitter.com/5l6UlSHvN8 — National Assembly of Pakistan🇵🇰 (@NAofPakistan) April 8, 2022

9 Apr 2022 - 05:07 GMT

PTI may try to delay voting: Opposition

PML-N leader Rana Sanaullah says his party fears the government will try to delay the voting through a discussion on the alleged foreign conspiracy against Imran Khan.

“Though they [government] will try to delay, the Supreme Court ruling had make it mandatory to hold the crucial vote today,” Sanaullah told reporters.

9 Apr 2022 - 05:02 GMT

Parliament put under tight security

Special security arrangements have been made for the crucial session of the National Assembly as security staff deny the entry of those without a security pass.

Many journalists and guests of legislators who were not issued passes for Saturday’s session were denied entry into the building, local Geo TV reports.

9 Apr 2022 - 04:58 GMT

Opposition to meet before crucial session

Legislators and leaders of various political parties have started arriving in the parliament building for the crucial session that is scheduled to start at 10:30 am local time (05:30 GMT).

Before the session, the opposition parties which have moved a no-confidence motion against Imran Khan will meet to discuss their strategy in the house.

D-Day: Grand Opposition assemble here. #NoConfidenceMotionVote pic.twitter.com/DZTCRMrdtH — Zahid Gishkori (@ZahidGishkori) April 9, 2022

9 Apr 2022 - 04:51 GMT

Khan calls for street rallies in his support.

In an impassioned televised address to the nation on the eve of a no-confidence vote in parliament, Khan urged Pakistanis – particular the country’s young who have been the backbone of his support since the former cricket star-turned-politician came to power in 2018 – to rally countrywide on Sunday night.

“All of you will have to come out on Sunday after evening prayer to protest, to peacefully protest … I again say that should never indulge in violence,” he said.

“It should be a peaceful protest.”

What to know about the crisis of violence, politics and hunger engulfing Haiti

A long-simmering crisis over Haiti’s ability to govern itself, particularly after a series of natural disasters and an increasingly dire humanitarian emergency, has come to a head in the Caribbean nation, as its de facto president remains stranded in Puerto Rico and its people starve and live in fear of rampant violence. 

The chaos engulfing the country has been bubbling for more than a year, only for it to spill over on the global stage on Monday night, as Haiti’s unpopular prime minister, Ariel Henry, agreed to resign once a transitional government is brokered by other Caribbean nations and parties, including the U.S.

But the very idea of a transitional government brokered not by Haitians but by outsiders is one of the main reasons Haiti, a nation of 11 million, is on the brink, according to humanitarian workers and residents who have called for Haitian-led solutions. 

“What we’re seeing in Haiti has been building since the 2010 earthquake,” said Greg Beckett, an associate professor of anthropology at Western University in Canada. 

What is happening in Haiti and why?

In the power vacuum that followed the assassination of democratically elected President Jovenel Moïse in 2021, Henry, who was prime minister under Moïse, assumed power, with the support of several nations, including the U.S. 

When Haiti failed to hold elections multiple times — Henry said it was due to logistical problems or violence — protests rang out against him. By the time Henry announced last year that elections would be postponed again, to 2025, armed groups that were already active in Port-au-Prince, the capital, dialed up the violence.

Even before Moïse’s assassination, these militias and armed groups existed alongside politicians who used them to do their bidding, including everything from intimidating the opposition to collecting votes . With the dwindling of the country’s elected officials, though, many of these rebel forces have engaged in excessively violent acts, and have taken control of at least 80% of the capital, according to a United Nations estimate. 

Those groups, which include paramilitary and former police officers who pose as community leaders, have been responsible for the increase in killings, kidnappings and rapes since Moïse’s death, according to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program at Uppsala University in Sweden. According to a report from the U.N . released in January, more than 8,400 people were killed, injured or kidnapped in 2023, an increase of 122% increase from 2022.

“January and February have been the most violent months in the recent crisis, with thousands of people killed, or injured, or raped,” Beckett said.

Armed groups who had been calling for Henry’s resignation have already attacked airports, police stations, sea ports, the Central Bank and the country’s national soccer stadium. The situation reached critical mass earlier this month when the country’s two main prisons were raided , leading to the escape of about 4,000 prisoners. The beleaguered government called a 72-hour state of emergency, including a night-time curfew — but its authority had evaporated by then.

Aside from human-made catastrophes, Haiti still has not fully recovered from the devastating earthquake in 2010 that killed about 220,000 people and left 1.5 million homeless, many of them living in poorly built and exposed housing. More earthquakes, hurricanes and floods have followed, exacerbating efforts to rebuild infrastructure and a sense of national unity.

Since the earthquake, “there have been groups in Haiti trying to control that reconstruction process and the funding, the billions of dollars coming into the country to rebuild it,” said Beckett, who specializes in the Caribbean, particularly Haiti. 

Beckett said that control initially came from politicians and subsequently from armed groups supported by those politicians. Political “parties that controlled the government used the government for corruption to steal that money. We’re seeing the fallout from that.”

Many armed groups have formed in recent years claiming to be community groups carrying out essential work in underprivileged neighborhoods, but they have instead been accused of violence, even murder . One of the two main groups, G-9, is led by a former elite police officer, Jimmy Chérizier — also known as “Barbecue” — who has become the public face of the unrest and claimed credit for various attacks on public institutions. He has openly called for Henry to step down and called his campaign an “armed revolution.”

But caught in the crossfire are the residents of Haiti. In just one week, 15,000 people have been displaced from Port-au-Prince, according to a U.N. estimate. But people have been trying to flee the capital for well over a year, with one woman telling NBC News that she is currently hiding in a church with her three children and another family with eight children. The U.N. said about 160,000 people have left Port-au-Prince because of the swell of violence in the last several months. 

Deep poverty and famine are also a serious danger. Gangs have cut off access to the country’s largest port, Autorité Portuaire Nationale, and food could soon become scarce.

Haiti's uncertain future

A new transitional government may dismay the Haitians and their supporters who call for Haitian-led solutions to the crisis. 

But the creation of such a government would come after years of democratic disruption and the crumbling of Haiti’s political leadership. The country hasn’t held an election in eight years. 

Haitian advocates and scholars like Jemima Pierre, a professor at the University of British Columbia, Vancouver, say foreign intervention, including from the U.S., is partially to blame for Haiti’s turmoil. The U.S. has routinely sent thousands of troops to Haiti , intervened in its government and supported unpopular leaders like Henry.

“What you have over the last 20 years is the consistent dismantling of the Haitian state,” Pierre said. “What intervention means for Haiti, what it has always meant, is death and destruction.”

In fact, the country’s situation was so dire that Henry was forced to travel abroad in the hope of securing a U.N. peacekeeping deal. He went to Kenya, which agreed to send 1,000 troops to coordinate an East African and U.N.-backed alliance to help restore order in Haiti, but the plan is now on hold . Kenya agreed last October to send a U.N.-sanctioned security force to Haiti, but Kenya’s courts decided it was unconstitutional. The result has been Haiti fending for itself. 

“A force like Kenya, they don’t speak Kreyòl, they don’t speak French,” Pierre said. “The Kenyan police are known for human rights abuses . So what does it tell us as Haitians that the only thing that you see that we deserve are not schools, not reparations for the cholera the U.N. brought , but more military with the mandate to use all kinds of force on our population? That is unacceptable.”  

Henry was forced to announce his planned resignation from Puerto Rico, as threats of violence — and armed groups taking over the airports — have prevented him from returning to his country.  

Now that Henry is to stand down, it is far from clear what the armed groups will do or demand next, aside from the right to govern. 

“It’s the Haitian people who know what they’re going through. It’s the Haitian people who are going to take destiny into their own hands. Haitian people will choose who will govern them,” Chérizier said recently, according to The Associated Press .

Haitians and their supporters have put forth their own solutions over the years, holding that foreign intervention routinely ignores the voices and desires of Haitians. 

In 2021, both Haitian and non-Haitian church leaders, women’s rights groups, lawyers, humanitarian workers, the Voodoo Sector and more created the Commission to Search for a Haitian Solution to the Crisis . The commission has proposed the “ Montana Accord ,” outlining a two-year interim government with oversight committees tasked with restoring order, eradicating corruption and establishing fair elections. 

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CORRECTION (March 15, 2024, 9:58 a.m. ET): An earlier version of this article misstated which university Jemima Pierre is affiliated with. She is a professor at the University of British Columbia, Vancouver, not the University of California, Los Angeles, (or Columbia University, as an earlier correction misstated).

Patrick Smith is a London-based editor and reporter for NBC News Digital.

Char Adams is a reporter for NBC BLK who writes about race.