climate change research paper in the philippines

Climate Change Impacts on Philippine Communities: An Overview of the Current Literature and Policies

Introduction

The Philippines is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change in the world. An island nation which is heavily exposed to extreme weather events, the Philippines has little adaptive capacity. This article will begin by exploring the current and anticipated climatic changes as based on the most recent report released by the International Panel for Climate Change in 2014. After this, the economy of the Philippines is discussed; the main industries of which are agriculture, mining, and services (including tourism, business process outsourcing, and remittances from overseas Filipino workers). The primary industries of the Philippines, namely agriculture and mining, have varying yet significant detrimental impacts on the environment, these are explored, as are the risks of both these industries and macro scale anticipated climate change impacts to society. After this, current or proposed policies to improve the status quo of the mining and agriculture sectors are explored and critiqued. Following this, there is a discussion of the groups in the Philippine society who are most vulnerable to climate change and adverse industry impacts. A larger exploration of lower economic groups, particularly agriculture-based households is undertaken. The impacts on these marginalized groups are contextualized as forms of violence and reviewed in line with the themes of sustainable development and positive peace.

Overview of the Philippines

Geography and climate.

The Philippines is an archipelago with over 7500 islands comprising approximately 30 million hectares, nestled between the Philippines Sea, the South China Sea, and the Celebes Sea. The islands of the Philippines are grouped into three regions: Mindanao (10.2 million hectares), Visayas (5.7 million hectares), and Luzon (14.1 million hectares) where the capital, Manila, is located. The Philippines is a collection of half-submerged mountains, which were pushed up as a result of the subduction zone of the collision of the Eurasian and the Philippine plates. This subduction zone makes the Philippines prone to earthquakes and volcanic activity. The climate is tropical, with an average humidity of 80% and an annual rainfall of 80-450cm. 1 Two of the regions, Luzon and Visayas, are affected by typhoons each year, which account for half of their annual rainfall.

Demographics

Of the 102.8 million people who live in the Philippines, 44.2% live in urban centers, while the remaining 55.8% live in rural areas. 2 According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the current per capita GDP is 12,430 Philippine Pesos, an increase of 6.7% over the previous year. 3 Poverty has also dropped to 21.6% over the past year with unemployment dropping to a historic low of 4.7%. However, underemployment is still steady and significant at 18%. Underemployment reflects the number of workers who are working but would like to work more hours than they receive. This high value reflects the prevalence of informality, workplace corruption, and other job-related concerns. 4 Poverty and underemployment are directly related to undernourishment, at a rate of 13.8% of the population. 5 These are projected to worsen with the increased income inequality. 6

Review of Climate Change and Projected Impacts

According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) climate change is defined as the change in the usual weather found in a place; specifically, it refers to the levels of precipitation or expected temperature of a month or season. This is a long-term alteration in the expected climate which usually takes hundreds or even millions of years. 7 The basis for the review of climate change impacts is taken from the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5) which was released in 2014. The IPCC was established in 1988 by the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide unbiased and clear scientific research on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts. 8

This review acknowledges climate change is a global phenomenon and one which affects all regions and sub-regions differently, however, it is outside the capacity of this paper to review the global impacts of climate change, the scope of this paper is limited to South-East Asia, most particularly to the Philippines. This section aims to discuss only the changes in climate resulting from global increases of atmospheric carbon. Climate change is anticipated to have many impacts on the status quo of the Philippines.

Temperature rise

As it stands, an increase of more than 3°C is expected throughout Southeast Asia. 9 This temperature increase will be reflected in ocean temperatures, particularly at the surface. 10 Not only will the temperature increase affect the oceans, but it will also affect terrestrial ecosystems in several ways. Temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in fire frequency in terrestrial ecosystems. 11 It is not fully understood how this relationship works, however analysis of the past 21,000 years shows there is a positive relationship between temperature and fire frequency, more so than any other parameter. In addition to increased fire frequency risks, precipitation patterns will continue to be heavily impacted by the increased temperatures.

Precipitation

Overall, rainfall has only increased by 22mm per decade over Southeast Asia, which is not a significant increase; however the regularity of the rainfall has altered with 10mm of the measured increase being attributed to extreme rain days. This increase is predicted to continue over the coming decades. 12 The decreased regularity of precipitation has a two-fold consequence; firstly, longer and more intensive drought periods, and secondly, heavier rainfall once the droughts end. One part of the altered precipitation pattern is the increased level of precipitation occurring with tropical cyclones. Aside from the increased rainfall with each cyclone, there is less confidence in the knowledge surrounding the increase in frequency or intensity of these cyclones. Another weather pattern where precipitation will play a role is the monsoon season. Eighty-five percent of future projections show an increase in mean precipitation during monsoons, while more than 95% show an increase in heavy precipitation events. 13

Fresh Water

Although the parameters to measure fresh water quality and quantity are heavily influenced by human activities, there is evidence to believe that climate change impacts not only the quantity of freshwater but also the quality. Delpla et al 14 showed that warming and extreme events were likely to modify the physical-chemical parameters, micropollutants and biological parameters of the water. 15 The physico-chemical parameters include measurements such as temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, and total dissolved solids. Micropollutants are bioactive, non-biodegradable substances such as radioactive or biologically harmful metals (including mercury, lead, and arsenic), pesticides, or pharmaceuticals, and biological parameters include the presence and volume of species such as algae and phytoplankton as well other microorganisms. Higher air temperatures increase evapotranspiration; when this occurs in tandem with increased frequency and intensity of droughts, then surface water quantity will be decreased. This can then increase the concentration of many of the physico-chemical parameters, micropollutants, and biological parameters listed above.

As previously mentioned, the ocean is anticipated to increase in temperature, particularly at the surface. 16 The current state of warming has been implicated in the northward expansion of tropical and subtropical macroalgae and toxic phytoplankton. 17 This northward shift of species is anticipated to alter the marine ecosystems and provide new challenges for the species which have historically been present in and around the Philippines. With current predictions, the increased temperature combined with ocean acidification is expected to result in significant declines in coral-dominated reefs and other calcified marine species, such as algae, molluscs, and larval echinoderms. 18 Current trends in sea level rise are expected to be exceeded by the future predictions. 19 This, in combination with cyclone intensification, will likely increase coastal flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion into surface and groundwaters. 20 Unless they are provided with enough fresh sediment or are allowed to move inland, beaches, mangroves, saltmarshes and seagrass beds will decline also, and these declines will exacerbate wave damage. 21 , 22 , 23 , 24

Philippine Industries: Agriculture

Agriculture – including forestry, fishing, and hunting – is one of the biggest sectors of the Philippine economy, accounting for 9.7% of the GDP 25 and employing 28% of the total workforce. The sizes of the agricultural ventures vary drastically, including a significant number of subsistence farmers as represented by the large proportion of the population who live rurally, and commercial ventures from multinational corporations. The large commercial agriculture ventures hold significant swathes of land and grow vast quantities of produce. In the Philippines the main crops are sugar, rice, and coconuts, each year producing hundreds of thousands of tons of each for export. 26 There is a drastic difference between the commercial ventures and the subsistence farmers in terms of yield, intensity of farming practice, and exports. It should be noted that fishing and farming are the two sectors with the highest incidences of poverty, 27 which I will discuss in more depth below.

Services are a highly profitable and diverse sector for the Philippines, and one which has expanded greatly over the past few years. Tourism is included in the services sector and provided 8.6% of the nation’s GDP in 2016, up 0.4% from the previous year. 28 Another major part of the services sector is the rapidly growing business process outsourcing, where call centers and other such infrastructure are exported to places like the Philippines to exploit their lower labor costs. In the Philippines, this employs over 1.3 million people. A last significant part of the services industry –which isn’t always accounted for but is nevertheless a crucial source of income for many families – are the remittances sent home from overseas Filipino workers (OFW). In the year 2016 there were 2.2 million OFW spread globally working in a large variety of roles. The remittances these workers returned to the Philippine economy added 146,029 million Philippine pesos, or roughly USD$2.78 billion in the year 2016. 29

There is great variety of industries in the Philippines, including vast manufacturing outputs. These range from one of the largest shipbuilding industries in the world, to a growing automotive and aerospace production. Construction is also a major employer as the country develops its economy and its population continues to grow, requiring more infrastructure. One of the main and more controversial industries of the Philippines is the mining and extraction industry. The Philippines has significant reserves of gold, nickel, copper, chromite, silver, coal, sulphur, and gypsum. While there has been significant debate over the legality of overseas mine ownership and mining procedures (as will be discussed later) the industry has continued to grow over the past year. The main contributors to the 8.8% expansion were stone quarrying, clay, and sandpits which grew by 17.7%, gold which grew by 16.5%, and crude oil, natural gas and condensate which grew by 7.4%. 30

Impacts of Industries on Environment

The impacts of many industries on the local environment make detecting and disentangling the impacts of climate change from the surrounding pressures very challenging, which is also reflected in the literature. 31

Many industries require access to fresh water, as a result, overexploitation of groundwater systems can result in land subsidence. When this is combined with the climate change driven impacts of coastal inundation and sea level rise, there is increased risks of worsened water quality. 32 Mining, in particular, poses a significant risk of water contamination. Mine tailings – the excess earth and chemicals used to obtain the target metal – are often permanently stored in large lakes or used to create structures such as dam walls and piers. However, if the tailings are not treated or sealed correctly, poisonous contaminants can leachate out and pollute the water surrounding them. As mining is such a prevalent industry in the Philippines, and with choices being made to economize the handling of these tailings (often at the expense of long-lasting safety), there have been examples of significant water contamination, including from the Palawan Quicksilver mine, 33 along the Naboc River area near Mindanao, 34 and in the water supplies to the villages of Sta. Lourdes and Tagburos. 35

Deforestation

Between 1990 and 2005, the Philippines lost a third of its primary forest cover. 36 This was due to a number of factors, one of which is the conversion of forest lands to promote growth and development. This is combined with high levels of poverty and landlessness in rural and urban populations, causing poorer families to move into less farmable uplands. This poverty is compounded by uncertain land rights, resulting in lack of long term investment in land and over-exploitation of its resources for short-term economic benefits. There is also a lack of policy and improper pricing of the land which results in poorly managed forestry practises, resulting in high capital intensity, low employment generation, and low investments in forest regeneration and protection.

There is an alarming feedback from forest cover to rainfall. Of course, without rain there is very little sustainable agriculture, including forestry. However, when forest cover is removed, it has been anticipated that rainfall patterns will also significantly change. 37 Consider that 25-56% of all rainfall in highly forested regions can be recycled in the ecosystem as tropical trees extract water from the soil and, through evapotranspiration, release it into the atmosphere, thus inducing rainfall. With the high rates of deforestation in the Philippines, we can assume that historic rainfall patterns will be significantly different in the future, not only through the broader forces of climate change, but also on a micro scale as a result of deforestation.

Land degradation

According to a report prepared by the Food and Agriculture Organization in 1999, approximately 75% of land in the Philippines is severely or very severely degraded. Due to the age of the report, significant changes have occurred since its release; but in many cases, soil degradation has worsened. Land degradation is associated with accelerated soil erosion, siltation of irrigation systems, flooding, and water pollution. Land effects are intricately linked with the previously discussed issues of fresh water and deforestation. Land degradation can occur through two main pathways: firstly is erosion, the removal of soil. Erosion occurs naturally through wind and water moving particles of soil, but is accelerated through human activity, particularly deforestation. Steeper lands are more erosion prone than lowlands, hence, as deforestation of the uplands became so prevalent in the last few decades, steep slope erosion is a serious issue. 38 Official estimates show a slow rise of erosion from 340 million t/year in the late 1980’s to nearly 350 million t/year in the early 2000’s.

The second type of land degradation is in the changes to the chemical, biological and physical parameters of the soil, such as nutrient loss, salinization, acidification, and compaction. Nutrients leave the soil either through adherence to water and traveling over the surface or gravitating down through the soil to water bodies below. This consequently makes nutrient loss a relative issue; nutrients tend to accumulate elsewhere, causing downstream damage, either through blocking water pathways with sediment build up, or adding too many nutrients that promote algae growth and polluting water bodies. Through continuous cropping, extensive submergence, and high chemical usage, the production of one crop in particular – rice – has led to declined organic matter content, nutrient supply capacity, nutrient imbalance, water logging, soil salinity and alkalinity and forming of hardpans at shallow depths. 39 These impacts combined have led to a slowdown of overall yield growth..

Risks to Society

The impacts of climate change and industry will likely manifest themselves through impacts on water resources, agriculture, coastal areas, resource dependent livelihoods, and urban settlements and infrastructure. These will have implications for human health and well-being. This section will explore food security, disease prevalence, and income and settlements. There are many links and feedback loops between each of these concepts, thus making a clear discussion a challenge. A lack of food security will lead to increased vulnerability to disease, as malnutrition reduces the immune system’s ability to resist infection and viruses. Poor housing can also increase vulnerability to disease, through exposure to cold, damp, or unsanitary living conditions. All three of these interacting factors are affected by income, as without sufficient funds, households cannot afford adequate nutrition, medicine, or quality housing.

Food Security

As temperature rises, the growth period of many crops – including rice – is shortened. It is already shown that current temperature in parts of Asia – including the Philippines – are reaching critical levels during the susceptible stages of the rice plant. 40 Extreme weather events have significant destructive capacity, which when combined with increased precipitation events lead to higher flood risks, yields could drastically fall. 41 Furthermore, with increased sea level rise, many coastal areas will lose agricultural lands due to submersion or increased salinization from a rising salt water table.

Added to the risks of climate change are those from industry. Unsustainable agricultural practices leading to land degradation have been previously discussed, but some industries also have negative impacts on the environment of other industries, one of which is mining. As previously mentioned, tailings from mines can leach out and pollute water sources. These water sources can be used for a number of purposes, including agriculture. The case of the Naboc River in Mindanao is one such example. Here, water from the river is being used to irrigate rice fields. This combined with high consumption levels of local fish (from the same polluted river) has led to high levels of mercury exposure in the population, resulting in 38% of the local inhabitants being classified as mercury intoxicated. 42 Further, tailings from the Palawan Mine, used to construct a jetty into Honda Bay, have leached out into the water, creating another food source pathway of mercury to humans which is particularly pertinent in the high-fish-consuming population. The last example is in the towns of Sta Lourdes and Tagburos, where a health crisis has been declared and residents exposed to mercury through similar pathways as those previously discussed are being evacuated and receiving medical treatment.. These are just three examples with definitive literature; there are many more similar situations of contamination from mine tailings which further threaten food security in the Philippines.

Epidemics are often reported after floods and storms, both of which are set to increase as a result of climate change and unsustainable land clearing and farming practise, as previously discussed. These epidemics can come as a result of decreased drinking water quality, amongst other reasons. According to the Philippine Statistics Authority the main source of drinking water in the Philippines is bottled water with 27.2%, and cooking water sourced from community water systems with 43.4%. 43 While it may be assumed that bottled water is safe and unaffected in quality by floods or storms, the population which does not have access to this security is at risk from reduced water quality. Further contributing causes of epidemics after floods are mosquito proliferation and exposure to rodent-borne pathogens. 44

There are also links between heat and human health, showing that high temperatures subsequently increase mortality, particularly in the elderly and people with cardiovascular and respiratory disorders. 45 In addition to heat, droughts also have health impacts. Increased heat and drought frequency, as previously discussed, are the primary causes of increased frequency of wildfires, which in turn increase incidences of smoke exposure. Drought can also impact agriculture, as mentioned above, threatening food security and having further renders people susceptible to disease. 46

As previously mentioned, floods and storms may increase mosquito proliferation and exposure to rodent-borne pathogens. We can anticipate that increased temperatures will also affect vector-borne pathogens. This could be through shorter vectors life-cycles and extrinsic incubation periods, resulting in larger vector population sizes. This would enhance the spread of disease between the vector species and humans. One such example is that of dengue fever, which has a time-lagged positive correlation with increased temperature and rainfall. 47 Among all the impacts anticipated with climate change, the broadest impact on human health is the traumatic psychological effect these changes will have. Many mental disorders as well as post-traumatic stress syndrome have been observed in disaster-prone areas. 48

Income and Settlements

The Philippines is a country of rapid development and urbanization. However, more than half of its inhabitants still live rurally and still suffer disproportionate rates of poverty. 49 It is expected that impacts of environmental degradation and climate change will impact those below the poverty line with more vigor than those above it. In the national economy, agriculture is anticipated to be a key driver of growth over the coming years. Southeast Asia is the third poorest region (in regard to human development indicators) after sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia. 50 Considering its current situation, with anticipated global increase in food prices for staples such as rice, the Philippines stands a chance to improve its economy if it can manage the negative climatic impacts anticipated for the agricultural industry. 51

Many settlements in the Philippines are in low elevation coastal areas which are particularly vulnerable to climate change hazards, such as sea level rises, storm surges, and typhoons. One group, in particular, is those living in peri-urban areas who face particular risks. These peri-urban areas are often of lower socioeconomic standing, which consequently increases inhabitants’ risks regarding food security, but also increased land title insecurity and price pressures. Secondly, peri-urban areas often serve as sinks for urban wastes, holding landfills and sewage treatment facilities which can pose local biophysical risks. Lastly, as they are outside of the inner-urban area, peri-urban areas are often not included in disaster risk management planning, even though they will most likely suffer just as much as inner-urban areas. 52

The risks of extreme weather events to industries are multi-faceted. Particularly regarding infrastructure, climate change poses many direct and indirect challenges to industrial production and enterprise. There is no doubt that climate change will deteriorate infrastructure, which can disrupt basic services such as water supply, sanitation, energy provision, and transportation systems, which can lead to mass migrations. 53 With increased frequency and intensity of cyclones and other extreme weather events, this can create an unsustainable cost for a developing economy. Over the past four years, climate-induced disasters have cost the Philippine economy 0.3% of its GDP. 54 This is anticipated to increase up to 2.2-5.7% of the GDP by the year 2100. 55 Furthermore, climate change can also exacerbate current socioeconomic and political disparities and add to the vulnerability of the Philippine people. 56

Current Policies on most Environmentally Damaging Industries

In 2016, the previous environmental secretary of the Philippines, Regina Lopez, spearheaded an environmental audit of the mines in the Philippines, finding “serious environmental violations” at 23 of the 41 operating mines. 57 This audit resulted in a “ban of mining” which prevented new mining ventures. 58 Mining contributes less than 1% of the countries GDP; 59 , 60 however, it also produces 8% of the world’s supply of nickel, and 97% of China’s supply, the decrease of which could result in serious international consequences. 61 Appeals have already been made to lift the ban and release Lopez’s audit for transparency. 62 , 63 , 64 This international pressure could damage the ability of the Philippine administration to make clear and logical policies which consider both the economic and employment benefits of mining for the people of the Philippines, but also consider the longevity of the environment and any other economically beneficial alternative land uses.

Recently, the Duterte administration signed the Canadian Towards Sustainable Mining (TSM) initiative. This program was developed to facilitate the extraction of minerals, metals and energy products in the most socially, economically, and environmentally responsible way. 65 There are three core pillars which uplift this program: accountability, transparency, and credibility. Accountability is achieved through regular assessments at the facility level where the mining takes place, providing local communities with accurate and honest knowledge as to the health of the mine. Members of the TSM provide progress reports, measuring 23 set indicators; this is done annually and is audited every three years. These results are publicly available, thus providing transparency. The last pillar, credibility, is fostered through ongoing consultation with a national Community of Interest Advisory Panel, which is a multi-stakeholder group comprising aboriginal groups, community leaders, environmental and social NGOs, and labor and financial organizations. There are also members of the Mining Association of Canada board to provide a mining industry perspective. 66 There are still issues to resolve – including the open pit ban – before any growth can be expected from the industry. 67 Duterte said that while he would not lift the ban on new ventures, he would give current firms time to adapt to less environmentally harmful practices as opposed to enforcing their immediate closure. 68

In early 2018, the new secretary for the environment, Roy Cimatu, visited one of the largest tourist destinations in the Philippines. During this visit he witnessed significant and widespread environmental violations, 69 predominantly amongst the locally owned and run hostels and housing for migrants who work in the more established and well-endowed global hotel-chains. 70 This is mainly due to the well-financed position of many global chains who can ensure their facilities connect to water treatment systems and meet the requirements of the law. It should be noted, however, that while enforcing strict environmental security is of utmost importance to ensure the self-sustainability of local populations, it should not be done with disregard. Not only does the hard-line approach hamstring productivity and potentially frighten future overseas investors, in regard to both the tourism example and the previous open-pit mining ban, it also has significant repercussions for employment. Households who have migrated for work, such as in Boracay, or who are solely dependent on one industry, will face significant losses to livelihood in the event of a hard-line indefinite closure.

Agriculture

The primary goal of the agriculture policy in the Philippines is to achieve self-sufficiency in rice production, in the hope that it will effectively combat food insecurity and poverty through a stable food supply at an affordable cost. 71 The interference of the government in the agriculture industry has ebbed and flowed over the past few decades. The level of intervention was particularly heavy in the 1970s and ‘80s before easing off to allow increased private sector control until the turn of the millennium. 72 In the early 2000s Philippine agriculture refocused on rice, and there was a subsequent increase in government subsidies. This was more pertinent after the 2008 global food crisis, which further strengthened the drive for self-sufficiency in rice. 73 There were many suggested pathways to achieving this self-sufficiency, three of which will be discussed in more depth.

Traditionally, subsidizing input costs has been the main instrument in achieving self-sufficiency in the Philippines. 74 This includes preferential tax policies exempting agricultural enterprises from import duties on agricultural equipment and machinery. Furthermore, the government subsidizes ongoing and recurring inputs such as seeds and fertilizers. More recently, these subsidies have been tailored to increase planting of hybrid rice strains, with varying success. Many of these seeds do not produce seeds of their own, so farmers are required to repurchase stock every year, unlike traditional inbred varieties. This combined with often a heightened fertilizer requirement, resulted in a low uptake of the new technology. 75

Since the turn of the millennium, there has been increased pressure to provide general services to the whole industry. These include investment into an extensive irrigation network, primarily to benefit rice farmers. A further priority intervention is the construction and maintenance of a road network, better connecting farms to markets. This increases agricultural productivity and reduces post-harvest losses. To further future agriculture productivity, the Philippine government invests substantially in research and development. This research should pass through local level government, with reinvestment by the government. 76

The most powerful agricultural policy instrument used by the Philippines government to move towards rice self-sufficiency is price supports. These measures are placed mainly on rice and sugar; they include a support price, release price, government procurement and import restrictions. Government procurement stabilizes consumer price levels through buffer stocks, ensuring adequate and continuous supply. 77 Import restrictions regulate foreign trade, particularly on the import of rice. While it is crucial for self-sufficient industry not to import more rice than they produce, this is proving to be detrimental in the case of the Philippines. Self-sufficiency requires gross yield to match or exceed the requirement of the population. As the Philippines has undergone sustained population growth, particularly in recent times, in combination with decreased land availability and land productivity, the result is a significant gap between what is produced and what is required. In tandem with high import tariffs on rice, prices go up, resulting in recent increases in malnutrition and poverty.

The budgetary transfers to subsidize agriculture from the government are five times higher than those of other regional countries. 78 This inefficiency is made clearer when comparing percentages of the total; employment in agriculture is almost three times the GDP produced by agriculture. This low labor productivity is one of the reasons explaining the low incomes of agriculture-dependent households. 79 Considering that more than 60% of poor Filipino households’ income is spent on food, 80 low labor productivity rates are not financially sustainable. This seems to have started a reduction of the laboring population in agriculture. This movement from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors has provided overall economic growth. The movement of labor from low productivity to high productivity has increased incomes for families through the diversification of income sources. Furthermore, it has also raised the wage rate of agricultural labor as the supply shrinks, and reduced pressures on land and water availability. 81 However, this is not spread in a uniform manner as will be discussed below.

Some of the government’s agricultural policy instruments bring hope to the struggling sector, such as subsidized input costs and improved general services. However, as I have discussed, there is still real and significant water contamination from the mining industry, which has the potential to continue and worsen. While the government has invested in irrigation systems to stabilize and increase crop yields, these funds would be better invested in ensuring that the water used for irrigation is not contaminated. There is still positivity in the criticism of the general services investments; any investment to improve road connectivity will decrease vulnerability. Having clear and easy access between towns and cities will not only reduce post-harvest losses of crops as mentioned above, it will also increase accessibility to rural communities in the event of increasingly frequent natural disasters. Having this increased accessibility will allow emergency services and humanitarian aid into townships further afield, which would previously have been cut off.

Reducing input costs can also have detrimental impacts to the longevity of the agricultural sector. Tapering these subsidies to only a few crops, such as rice and sugarcane, will restrict diversity and increase vulnerability. Similar to the concept of having all one’s eggs in one basket, having a lack of diversity in the agricultural sector reduces resiliency to crop specific diseases or market price fluctuations, particularly for rice, which is becoming dangerously vulnerable in to increased temperature and reduced precipitation during its growth period. Moreover, reducing input costs into agriculture can increase intensification. While this intensification is necessary in the name of self-sufficiency, it is detrimental long term, as it often reduces land productivity, stripping the soil of nutrients and its necessary micro biodiversity. One suggestion, put forward by the OECD director of trade and agriculture, is to move away from the concept of self-sufficiency to move towards increased productivity and profitability in a way which is environmentally sustainable. 82

Vulnerable Groups

The current and predicted state of the environment can be expected to have disproportionate repercussions for marginalized groups in society. In addition, research has shown an exacerbation in gender inequality. Chandra et al have explored the impacts of climate change and conflict on rural women in the wider Mindanao area 83 finding that climate change and conflict have been shown to disadvantage women to greater rates than men. According to Chandra women are more likely to farm smaller plots of land, work shorter hours, or limit their farming to cash crops. 84 Additionally, adult women frequently sacrifice their own food to ensure their children or the elderly in their care eat enough first – worsening food insecurity. Furthermore, should abandonment of the farm prove necessary – which is increasingly common – women tend to find work more easily in urban centers than men. 85 This can also lead to increased risk of sex trafficking. 86 , 87

A group that is similarly vulnerable to climate change and adverse industry impacts is indigenous peoples. The UN Economic and Social council released a report in 2003 exploring human rights and indigenous issues occurring in the Philippines. 88 This report detailed many issues concerning resource management and sustainable development, poverty, and militarization. One case which is referred to throughout the report is that of the Bugkalot indigenous people who have been fighting for their rights over the OceanaGold Corporation and Didipio mine. Although the Bugkalot elected anti-mining parliamentary members and local councils, the military systematically raided the townships of the Bugkalot, using tactics of torture, harassment, and grave coercion. 89 The indigenous people, joining forces with local peasants, still work towards closing the mine. A few years ago, the Didipio Earth Savers Multi-purpose association successfully rolled back some of the mining operations in Nueva Viscaya. 90 However, the OceanaGold mine is still operating and last year won the ASEAN award for best practices in mineral processing, citing community investment as a main bonus. 91 There should be serious concerns raised when a transnational corporation, such as Oceana Gold, has the political power to manipulate the military to act against the people. Looking forward, similar concerns should be raised with the open-pit mining ban regarding the ability of the Philippine administration to withstand heavy pressure from the appeals that have already begun. Not only did the indigenous group suffer land losses, they also suffered the political corruption of having their elected officials ignored and having the military turn against them. Though this is only one example, generally indigenous communities are more vulnerable to climate change. As will be discussed shortly, the more reliant a community is on natural resources, the more susceptible they are to the negative impacts on the degradation of those resources. As many indigenous communities live wholly within the capacities of their environment, they witness the changes firsthand and feel them more intensely.

The largest and most widespread vulnerable group are those lowest in economic status, including women and indigenous groups. Currently the most poverty-stricken group in the Philippines are the rural poor whose livelihoods depend almost entirely on subsistence agriculture, as previously discussed. The low economic capacity of this group makes them the most vulnerable group for a number of reasons. During extreme weather events, economically marginalized families are not able to escape, do not have food supplies saved up, nor are they able to afford medicine should an epidemic follow an extreme weather event. For the predominantly agriculture-reliant families from the poorest decile, the low-labor productivity of agriculture, and difficult economic policies enforced to achieve rice self-sufficiency are partially the cause of their plight. While the open-pit ban and any developments under the TSM initiative will hopefully stem the ongoing resource degradation, any mining venture has the risk of going wrong and causing disastrous and often irreversible impacts. Those communities who are most dependent on these natural resources are the most vulnerable to their change, also do not have the economic capacity to withstand or financially absorb any detrimental impacts. Further, these communities often do not have expendable income for medication, or treatment of the contamination, which prolongs and exacerbates their suffering. For example, leachate from tailings with mercury and other physical-chemical pollutants has already been linked to contamination and intoxication of local populations.

Many of the current or suggested policies for some of the most environmentally damaging industries of the Philippines have disproportionate consequences for marginalized groups of society. This disproportionality represents violence, under Galtung’s definitions. 92 Violence can be direct from one individual to another, such as from a soldier to an indigenous villager who is protesting the illegal mining in their homeland. Structural violence, as Galtung defines it, is the violence exerted by one group upon another, such as the contamination of water from poor mining practice which results in mercury intoxication in significant numbers in a village. This is violence committed by both the mining companies who failed to ensure their practices were safe, and the government, who failed to enforce safe practices on the company to protect their citizens. Galtung defines cultural violence as the parts of society which allow the previous two violences – direct and structural – to continue. This could be due to pressure from transnational mining corporations, or the economic benefits of cutting corners, which make society and government blind to the suffering of a marginalized group.

The problems faced by communities in the Philippines – be they land seizures, water contamination, increased malnutrition, mercury intoxication, sea level rise, or sex trafficking – have complex intersections and interactions. This means that dealing with an issue using an isolated and symptomatic approach cannot result in long term solutions; a systematic approach is required. Here is where the concept of sustainable development must be explicitly discussed. The Brundtland Commission 93 defines sustainable development as that which improves people’s life-enabling habits to meet needs in the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs. In this context it is only when economic security, ecological integrity, and social equality intersect can sustainable development be achieved. 94 With this in mind, human well-being is essential in combating environmental degradation, or adapting to adverse climatic changes. This is because poverty is both a cause and an effect of environmental degradation. As has been illustrated previously, negative impacts on the environment – whether caused directly by poorly managed industries or by macro climatic changes – have equally adverse consequences for society. The environment is the basis of our existence, and without nature’s capacity for regeneration or waste absorption, we would not be able to survive; this is most pertinent for those with a more direct interaction with the environment, and those with higher levels of poverty.

Ecological integrity is a critical component of sustainability and a requirement for poverty reduction. Without it, positive peace cannot be achieved. Positive peace, as defined by Harris 95 is defined as peace which is not only an absence of any of Galtung’s 96 three types of violence; it is also social justice and ecological sustainability. Hence, a lack of ecological sustainability results in risks that will consequently lead to more explicit and widespread violence and conflict. Homer-Dixon 97 links environmental degradation to increased risks of conflict. This takes an indirect pathway through economic struggles as a result of decreased primary industry capacity. Rural economic struggles result in migration to urban centers, increased social tensions and a greater risk of conflict. The situation in the Philippines is not too dissimilar from the theoretical pathway observed by Homer-Dixon. 98

In the Philippines, resource degradation, such as reduced water quality, and damage to crops from increased extreme weather events have led to a decrease in agricultural yield. This has led to migration to urban centers, as previously discussed, and has consequential impacts on increased sex trafficking and other horrifying realities. At this point, many non-agriculture sectors, such as tourism, business process outsourcing, and remittances from overseas Filipino workers, provide welcome opportunity and change for those who are currently most affected by the degradation of the environment. This helps struggling newly urban migrants and reduces the risk of conflict. However, Jasparro and Taylor 99 have theorized how the anticipated climate changes occurring in Southeast Asia will reduce state capacity and human security to the point where states may fail and produce non-state threats and conflicts. This, they suggested, would be a result of marginalized groups resorting to violence, warfare, and raiding in order to cope with increased environmental and climatic pressures.

There  is one question left to consider though: is it too late and is it enough? It would seem as though the national administration of the Philippines is implementing policies of varying successes in order to address the poverty of a significant portion of the population, and to develop in a way that the country is ready and capable of adapting to climate change. However, current measures may prove to make the agriculture sector, and society at large, more vulnerable to climate change. Furthermore, by restricting imports of food to create a facade of self-sufficiency, the Philippine administration is effectively attempting to fudge the numbers, and by doing so, increasing malnutrition and food insecurity for a significant number of their most vulnerable citizens.

Retroactively acknowledging and addressing the long-term damage done to the environment from industries such as mining and tourism, may not be enough to combat the violence suffered by the local communities. Furthermore, however gallant and admirable the new goals may be, it is questionable as to whether they will withstand global pressure, and whether the intricately linked needs of the poor and the environment can be prioritized over the ability to make easy money. If this proves unsuccessful, and the previous rate of mining and subsequent degradation resumes, the combined impacts on the rural poor may be too much. Not only this, but the impacts suffered through a hard-line approach to violations of environmental regulations will have a greater impact on lower socioeconomic households who rely on income from work in mining or tourism.

Perhaps there can be another approach to restorative relationships between government, local communities, and many of the transnational corporations who provide significant sources of income. The Commission on Human Rights for the Republic of the Philippines (CHR) has begun an inquiry into climate change within the human rights framework, with a particular emphasis on “carbon majors” and their potential responsibility in contributing to climate change and its impacts on the rights of people in the Philippines. 100 These “carbon majors” are non-state entities which are transnational producers of oil, natural gas, coal, and cement. The first hearing began in late March 2018, the inquiry will continue throughout the year and draw on community dialogues and experts from both scientific and human rights disciplines. 101 The aim of this inquiry is to improve measures to protect and promote human rights in the Philippines in an era or climatic changes, it also seeks to determine the liability of companies which have had a notable contribution to climate change. 102 103  While the interwoven nature of climate change and industry may prove a challenge for this inquiry, its goals are admirable and should provide intensely beneficial recommendations for community, government policy, and corporations. As the CHR is an independent body, any recommendations should consider the implications for the environment as well as local employment and income reliance.

Due to its geography of being an exposed archipelago, the Philippines is incredibly vulnerable to projected climate change impacts. Mining and agriculture play an important role in the health of the environment and when combined with the expected impacts of climate change, provide the Philippines with significant risks, including food insecurity, increased prevalence of disease, and income and settlement vulnerability. The ability for local communities to be resilient to these changes and impacts are both equipped and hindered by different industry-specific government policies. The detrimental effect of climate change and industry impacts on the environment culminate and combine to exacerbate marginalized groups vulnerability. This vulnerability is reconceptualized within the scope of this paper in Galtung’s forms of violence. This violence poses further threats for the attainment of positive peace and sustainable development.  

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5 Food and Agriculture Organization, 2017a.

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10 Matthew Collins, Reto Knutti, Julie Arblaster, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Thierry Fichefet, Pierre Friedlingstein, Xuejie Gao, et al, “Long-Term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility,” in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contributions of the Working Group 1 to the Fifth Assessment of Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press, 2013).

11 A.-L. Daniau, P.J. Bartlein, S. P. Harrison, I.C. Prentice, S. Brewer, P. Friedlingstein, et al, “Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes,” in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 26 no.4 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GB004249

12 Hijioka et al, “Asia.”

14 Delpla et al, “Impacts of climate change on surface water quality in relation to drinking water production.” Environment International 35 (2009): 1225–1233. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2009.07.001

16 Collins et al, “Long-term change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility,” 2013.

17 Yamano, Hiroya, Kaoru Sugihara, Keiichi Nomura, “Rapid poleward range expansion of tropical reef corals in response to rising sea surface temperatures.” Geophysical Research Letters 38, no. 4 (2011): 1-6.

18 Hijioka et al, “Asia,” 2013.

19 John Church, Peter Clark, David Bahr, Jason Box, David Bromwich, Mark Carson, William Collins, et al, “Sea Level Change,” in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press, 2013), 1137–1217.

20 Thomas R. Knutson, John L. McBride, Johnny Chan, Kerry Emanuel, Greg Holland, Chris Landsea, Isaac Held, John P. Kossin, A.K. Srivastava, Masato Sugi, “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change ,” Nature Geoscience 3, no. 3 (2010): 157-163.

21 Eric Gilman, Joanna Ellison, Norman Duke, Colin Field, “Threats to mangroves from climate change and adaptation options: a review,” Aquatic Botany 89, no 2 (2008): 237-250.

22 Eli Kintisch, “Can coastal marshes rise above it all?” Science 341, no. 6145 (2013): 480-481.

23 Keryn Gedan, Matthew Kirwan, Eric Wolanski, Edward Barbier, Brian Silliman, “The present and future role of coastal wetland vegetation in protecting shorelines: answering recent challenges to the paradigm,” Climatic Change 106, no 1(2011): 7-29.

24 Cesar Villanoy, Laura David, Ollivia Cabrera, Michael Atrigenio, Fernando Siringan, Porfirio Alino, Maya Villaluz, “Coral reef ecosystems protect shore from high-energy waves under climate change scenarios,” Climatic Change 112, no. 2 (2012): 493-505.

25 World Bank, 2017c, “Employment in Agriculture % in total employment. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS

26 Food and Agriculture Organization, 2017b. http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC

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28 Philippine Statistics Authority, 2017b “Tourism.” http://openstat.psa.gov.ph/Database

29 Philippine Statistics Authority, 2017c “Total number of OFWs estimated at 2.2million (results from the 2016 survey on overseas Filipino Workers.” https://psa.gov.ph/content/total-number-ofws-estimated-22-million-results-2016-survey-overseas-filipinos

30 Philippine Statistics Authority, 2017d “Gross National Income and Gross Domestic Product: Gross Value added in mining and quarrying.” http://psa.gov.ph/nap-press-release/sector/Mining%20and%20Quarrying

31 Poh Poh Wong, Inigo J. Losada, Jean-Pierre Gattuso, Jochen Hinkel, Abdellatif Khattabi, Kathleen L. McInnes, Yoshiki Saito, Asbury Sallenger, “Coastal systems and low-lying areas,” In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014).

32 Hijioka et al, “Asia.”

33 John Gray, Ian Greaves, Dorina Bustos, David Krabbenhoft, “Mercury and methylmercury contents in mine-waste, calcine, water, and sediment collected from the Palawan Quicksilver Mine, Philippines,” Environmental Geology 43, no. 3 (2003): 298-307.

34 James Appleton, Jason Weeks, J Calvez, and C Beinhoffd, “Impacts of mercury contaminated mining waste on soil quality, crops, bivalves, and fish in the Naboc River area, Mindanao, Philippines,” Sciences of the Total Environment 354, no 2-3 (2006): 198-211.

35 Redempto Anda, “Gov’t study confirms widespread mercury poisoning in 2 villages in Puerto Princesa City,” Inquirer.net. June 7, 2017.

36 Food and Agriculture Organization, “Soil resources depletion and deforestation: Philippines case study in resource accounting,” 2007. http://www.fao.org/docrep/006/AB604E/AB604E02.htm#TopOfPage

37 Leoc Aragao, “Environmental science: the rainforest’s water pump.” Nature 489 (2012): 217-218.

38 Briones, “The Philippines Country Environmental Analysis Land Degradation and Rehabilitation in the Philippines.”

39 R.B. Badayos, and F. C. Calalo, “Farm sustainability and organic farming,” in Securing Rice, Reducing Poverty: Challenges and Policy Directions, SEARCA, College, Laguna, 2007.

40 R. Wassman et al, “Regional vulnerability of climate change impacts on Asian rice production and scope for adaptation.” In Advances in Agronomy, Vol. 102, Burlington: Academic Press, 2009.

41 Hijioka et al, “Asia.”

42 Appleton et al, “Impacts of mercury contaminated mining waste,” 2006.

43 Philippine Statistics Authority, 2017e, “Population and housing.” https://psa.gov.ph/population-and-housing

44 Hijioka et al, “Asia.”

47 Glenn Io Sia Su, “Correlation of climatic factors and dengue incidence in Metro Manila, Philippines,” AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment 37, no. 4 (2008): 292-294

48 Hijioka et al, “Asia.”

49 Philippine Statistics Authority, 2017a, “Poverty: Fishermen, Farmers, and Children constantly post the highest rates of poverty among basic sectors.”

50 UN DESA Statistics Division, “The Millennium Development Goals Report 2009” (New York: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2009).

51 Hijioka et al, “Asia.”

53 UN HABITAT, “The State of Asian Cities 2010/2011).” Fukuoka: UN Habitat, 2011

54 Alvin Chandra, Karen E McNamara, Paul Dargusch, Ana Maria Caspe, and Dante Dalabajan, “Gendered Vulnerabilities of Smallholder Farmers to Climate Change in Conflict-Prone Areas: A Case Study from Mindanao, Philippines,” Journal of Rural Studies 50 (2017): 45–59. doi:10.1016/j.jrurstud.2016.12.011.

55 Hijioka et al, “Asia.”

57 A. Singh, “A Canadian era for Mining in the Philippines.” Asia Pacific Post. January 23, 2018.

58 Manolo Serapio, “Philippine’s Duterte keeps open pit mining ban in policy clash,” Reuters, November 20, 2017.

59 Adrian Finighan, “Philippines Mining shutdown,” Al Jazeera. 2017, February 11. Retrieved from: https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/countingthecost/2017/02/philippines-mining-shutdown-170211080450892.html

60 Singh, “A Canadian era for Mining in the Philippines.”

61 Finighan, “Philippines Mining shutdown.”

63 Singh, “A Canadian era for Mining in the Philippines.”

64 Serapio, “Philippine’s Duterte keeps open pit mining ban in policy clash.”

65 Mining Association of Canada, “TSM101: A primer.” https://www.minerals.org.au/sites/default/files/MAC%20TSM%20101%20-%20A%20Primer.pdf

67 Singh, “A Canadian era for Mining in the Philippines.”

68 Serapio, “Philippine’s Duterte keeps open pit mining ban in policy clash.”

69   Antonio Contreras, “Blood and money in the sand: The tragic story of the Atis of Boracay.” The Manila times. February 27, 2018. http://www.manilatimes.net/blood-money-sand-tragic-story-atis-boracay/38...

70 Antonio Contreras, “Blood and money in the sand: The class dimension of Boracay environmental disaster.” The Manila Times . March 1, 2018. http://www.manilatimes.net/blood-money-sand-class-dimension-boracay-envi...

71 OECD. “Agricultural Policies in the Philippines.” Paris: OECD Publishing, 2017.

75 Caesar Cororaton, Erwin Corong, 2009. “Philippine Agriculture and Food Policy: Implications for poverty and income distribution” https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/55512/files/rr161.pdf

76 OECD. “Agricultural Policies in the Philippines.”

80 Cororaton and Corong, “Philippine Agriculture and Food Policy: Implications for poverty and income distribution.”

81 OECD, “Agricultural Policies in the Philippines.”

82 Emma Rumney, “Philippines Agriculture counterproductive, warns OECD.”

83 Chandra et al, “Gendered Vulnerabilities of Smallholder Farmers to Climate Change in Conflict-Prone Areas: A Case Study from Mindanao, Philippines.”

87 Christopher Jasparro, Taylor Jonathan, “Climate Change and Regional Vulnerability to Transnational Security Threats in Southeast Asia.”

88 UN Economic and Social Council, “Human rights and indigenous issues: Mission to the Philippines.”

90 Roland Simbulan, Roland G. “Indigenous Communities’ Resistance to Corporate Mining in the Philippines.”

91 ASEAN, “Best Practice on sustainable mineral development in ASEAN.” http://asean.org/?static_post=sustainable-practice-minerals-development-best-practices-asean

92 Johan Galtung, “Conflict as a way of life.” In Progress in Mental Health. London: Churchill Press, 1969.

93 World Commission on Environment and development. “Our Common Future.” New York: Oxford University Press, 1987.

94 Robert Gibson, “Beyond the pillars: sustainability assessment as a framework for effective integration of social, economic and ecological considerations in significant decision-making.” Journal of Environmental Assessments and Political Management 8, no 3 (2006): 259-280

95 Ian Harris, “Peace Education in a postmodern World: A special issues of the Peabody journal of education.” London: Taylor and Francis, 2004.

96 Galtung, “Conflict as a way of life,” 1969.

97 Thomas Homer-Dixon, Environment, scarcity and Violence. New York: Princeton University Press, 1999.

99 Jonathan Jasparro, “Climate Change and Regional Vulnerability to Transnational Security Threats in Southeast Asia.”

100 CHR, “CHR to conduct first hearing investigating possible contribution of carbon to climate change and its impacts on human rights,” 2018.

102   Ibid.

103   Ibid. 

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Scoping Review of Climate Change and Health Research in the Philippines: A Complementary Tool in Research Agenda-Setting

Affiliations.

• 1 Alliance for Improving Health Outcomes, Inc., Rm. 406, Veria I Bldg., 62 West Avenue, Barangay West Triangle, Quezon City 1104, Philippines. [email protected].
• 2 Department of Global Health, School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, 1-12-4 Sakamoto, Nagasaki 852-8102, Japan. [email protected].
• 3 Alliance for Improving Health Outcomes, Inc., Rm. 406, Veria I Bldg., 62 West Avenue, Barangay West Triangle, Quezon City 1104, Philippines.
• 4 Department of Global Health, School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, 1-12-4 Sakamoto, Nagasaki 852-8102, Japan.
• 5 Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, 1-12-4 Sakamoto, Nagasaki 852-8523, Japan.
• 6 Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 324, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany.
• PMID: 31340512
• PMCID: PMC6679087
• DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16142624

The impacts of climate change on human health have been observed and projected in the Philippines as vector-borne and heat-related diseases have and continue to increase. As a response, the Philippine government has given priority to climate change and health as one of the main research funding topics. To guide in identifying more specific research topics, a scoping review was done to complement the agenda-setting process by mapping out the extent of climate change and health research done in the country. Research articles and grey literature published from 1980 to 2017 were searched from online databases and search engines, and a total of 34 quantitative studies were selected. Fifty-three percent of the health topics studied were about mosquito-borne diseases, particularly dengue fever. Seventy-nine percent of the studies reported evidence of positive associations between climate factors and health outcomes. Recommended broad research themes for funding were health vulnerability, health adaptation, and co-benefits. Other notable recommendations were the development of open data and reproducible modeling schemes. In conclusion, the scoping review was useful in providing a background for research agenda-setting; however, additional analyses or consultations should be complementary for added depth.

Keywords: agenda-setting; climate change; health; scoping review.

Publication types

• Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
• Climate Change*
• Philippines

Philippines Country Climate and Development Report

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Background Papers: Climate Change Institutional Analysis | Water | Agriculture | Energy Transition | Transport |  Macroeconomic Modelling  |  Climate Change and Environmental Risks in the Financial and Private Sector  |  The Distributional Impacts of Climate Change Damage, Adaptation and Mitigation Policies  |  Strengthening Adaptive Social Protection  |  Social Impacts of Climate Change in High-Risk Areas  |  Disaster Risk Management

Climate change poses major risks for development in the Philippines. Climate shocks, whether in the form of extreme weather events or slow-onset trends—will hamper economic activities, damage infrastructure, and induce deep social disruptions. Policy inaction would impose substantial economic and human costs, especially on the poor.

The Philippines Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) comprehensively analyzes how climate change will affect the country's ability to meet its development goals and pursue green, resilient, and inclusive development. The CCDR helps identify opportunities for climate action by both the public and private sectors.

The CCDR shows that climate change poses major risks to development in the Philippines but that the country has many options to address them. If nothing is done, climate change will impose substantial economic and human costs, reducing GDP by as much as 13.6 percent of GDP by 2040, with the poorest households most affected. These effects are likely to vary across and within regions. Adapting to the risks of climate change—including extreme events and slow-onset problems—is critical for the Philippines. It cannot wholly eliminate the costs of climate change, but it can greatly reduce them. Many adaptation responses also contribute to mitigation; conversely, many mitigation measures generate local co-benefits, such as reduced air pollution.

Although the Philippines is a relatively low emitter of Greenhouse gases (GHGs), it can contribute to global mitigation efforts through an energy transition, including a transition away from coal. The investment costs of such adaptation measures and energy transition are substantial but not out of reach. A large part of decarbonizing the power system has a relatively low incremental system cost compared with the Government’s current plan, mainly involving further expanding renewables such as solar, whose cost is declining. Moreover, it could lead to lower electricity prices. The energy transition should be complemented with energy efficiency measures—notably in transport and buildings—and by encouraging compact city development to facilitate mass transit. The private sector drives economic growth and is pivotal in adaptation and mitigation. As such, appropriate incentives must be in place.

The CCDR prioritizes the most urgent development challenges likely to be impacted by climate change in the Philippines. Even among these, the analysis is necessarily brief. Background papers prepared for the CCDR consider a much broader range of issues and examine them in more detail than is possible here.

Chapter 2  examines the challenges climate change poses for development in the Philippines. 

Chapter 3  then assesses the country’s NDCs and its existing climate policies. 

Chapter 4  details the sectors and locations most exposed to climate change, examining the likely impacts on economic activities in these sectors and the people who depend on them. The analysis in this chapter relies on a synthesis of prior work complemented, in several instances, on detailed partial-equilibrium modeling prepared specifically for the CCDR. 

Chapter 5  combines these analytical strands and uses Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models to assess the impact of climate shocks and climate policy tradeoffs on growth, inequality, and poverty. 

Chapter 6 summarizes policy recommendations for all key sectors and identifies policy priorities.

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Climate change impacts and responses in the Philippines: water resources

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Life on the edge: vulnerability and adaptation of african ecosystems to global climate change

Long-term trends and variability of rainfall extremes in the philippines, long-term trends and variability of rainfall extremes in the philippines, climate change and urban planning in southeast asia, spatio-temporal variability and predictability of summer monsoon onset over the philippines, climate change 1995 - impacts, adaptations and mitigation of climate change : scientific-technical analyses, climate change 1995: impacts, adaptations and mitigation of climate change: scientific-technical analyses. contribution of working group ii to the second assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, a doubled co2 climate sensitivity experiment with a global climate model including a simple ocean, watbal: an integrated water balance model for climate impact assessment of river basin runoff, vulnerability assessment of angat water reservoir to climate change, related papers (5), climate change impacts and responses in the philippines coastal sector, climate change vulnerability mapping for southeast asia, assessing the impact of climate change on water resources in iran, modeling impacts of climate change on freshwater availability in africa, impacts of climate change on water resources in spain, trending questions (3).

The given text does not provide information about the impact of limited learning resources in the Philippines.

Yes, previous studies have shown that extreme climatic events like droughts and floods have negative implications for major water reservoirs in the Philippines.

The negative effects of building a dam in the Philippines include vulnerability to extreme rainfall variability and potential decrease in runoff in major water reservoirs.

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Open Access

Peer-reviewed

Research Article

Projected Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Regimes in the Philippines

Contributed equally to this work with: Pamela Louise M. Tolentino, Ate Poortinga

* E-mail: [email protected]

Affiliation National Institute of Geological Sciences, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines 1101

Affiliations Soil Physics and Land Management (SLM), Wageningen University and Research Center, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands, Water Insight, Postbus 435, 6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands

¶ ‡These authors also contributed equally to this work.

Affiliation Climate, Energy and Tenure Division, FAO, Largo Terme di Caracalla 00153 Rome, Italy

Affiliation Soil Physics and Land Management (SLM), Wageningen University and Research Center, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands

Affiliations Soil Physics and Land Management (SLM), Wageningen University and Research Center, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands, International Centre for Applied Climate Science (ICACS), University of Southern Queensland (USQ), Toowoomba QLD 4350, Australia

• Pamela Louise M. Tolentino, 
• Ate Poortinga, 
• Hideki Kanamaru, 
• Saskia Keesstra, 
• Jerry Maroulis, 
• Carlos Primo C. David, 
• Coen J. Ritsema

• Published: October 17, 2016
• https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0163941
• Reader Comments

The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the potential impacts of climate change. To fully understand these potential impacts, especially on future hydrological regimes and water resources (2010-2050), 24 river basins located in the major agricultural provinces throughout the Philippines were assessed. Calibrated using existing historical interpolated climate data, the STREAM model was used to assess future river flows derived from three global climate models (BCM2, CNCM3 and MPEH5) under two plausible scenarios (A1B and A2) and then compared with baseline scenarios (20th century). Results predict a general increase in water availability for most parts of the country. For the A1B scenario, CNCM3 and MPEH5 models predict an overall increase in river flows and river flow variability for most basins, with higher flow magnitudes and flow variability, while an increase in peak flow return periods is predicted for the middle and southern parts of the country during the wet season. However, in the north, the prognosis is for an increase in peak flow return periods for both wet and dry seasons. These findings suggest a general increase in water availability for agriculture, however, there is also the increased threat of flooding and enhanced soil erosion throughout the country.

Citation: Tolentino PLM, Poortinga A, Kanamaru H, Keesstra S, Maroulis J, David CPC, et al. (2016) Projected Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Regimes in the Philippines. PLoS ONE 11(10): e0163941. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0163941

Editor: Maite deCastro, University of Vigo, SPAIN

Received: January 21, 2016; Accepted: September 16, 2016; Published: October 17, 2016

Copyright: © 2016 Tolentino et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Data Availability: Relevant data for this manuscript is located available through 4TU ( https://data.4tu.nl/ ). The DOI of the dataset is: 10.4121/uuid:77a6c0c0-853b-4ce4-ad10-e191c2614440 .

Funding: The work was part of the Assessments of Climate Change Impacts and Mapping of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity under Climate Change (AMICAF) under the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). The overall project was funded by the Japanese Government (project symbol at FAO is GCP/INT/126/JPN). AP received support in the form of salary from Water Insights. The funders did not have any additional role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Competing interests: AP is affiliated to the private company Water Insight. Water Insight were involved in the development and training sessions for the toolbox, they had no involvement in the study. All data and models in the toolbox are open-source / open-access. No patents, products in development or marketed products were involved. The affiliation with Water Insight does not alter the authors’ adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Introduction

Due to its geographical setting, the Philippines is naturally vulnerable to hydrometeorological hazards such as tropical cyclones, flooding, droughts, and rain-induced landslides. These environmental hazards are aggravated by human activities such as deforestation and improper land use planning. Moreover, the Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries to the impacts of climatic change [ 1 ] due to its high level of risk exposure and limited resources for adaptation [ 2 ].

Furthermore, climate change represents a serious threat to the Philippines which is heavily reliant on agriculture for food security and economic growth. The livelihood of millions is threatened by the potential effects of climate change as current agricultural practices are adapted primarily to the prevailing climate. Under predicted climate change, current agricultural practices may become unsustainable due to changing rainfall patterns or temperature rises that reduce the viability of certain crop types. Therefore, an understanding of future seasonal variability in rainfall patterns and thus hydrological regimes under the impacts of climate change, is critically important in deciphering the ability of catchments to reliably supply irrigation water.

In order to forecast the impact of climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) has produced various future scenarios from which greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) are estimated and global climate models (GCMs) developed. Some studies have used the data to assess the effects of a warmer climate on flood risk at a global or continental scale [ 3 , 4 ]. Despite the plethora of GCMs running numerous scenarios, these GCMs are however too coarse to assess the impact of climate change at a country scale let alone for examining specific hydrological basins within a country.

Consequently, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) developed an integrated suite of climate models for assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture at the national level. The MOdelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change (MOSAICC) is a generic methodology designed to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture, by incorporating crop yields, water resources, macro-economic and downscaled climate data.

The MOSAICC framework was deployed in this study to assess the potential impact of climate change on river flows under various climate scenarios up to 2050 for the Philippines. A time-series of historical interpolated downscaled climate data of hydrological simulations for model calibration was also used. Data from three GCMs (BCM2, CNCM3, MPEH5) with two likely scenarios each (A2 and A1B), were then input into the hydrological model.

Materials and Methods

The Philippines ( Fig 1 ) is an archipelago made up of >7,000 islands with a total area of 300,000 km 2 . There are three main island groupings: Luzon in the north (141,000 km 2 ), Visayas in the middle (57,000 km 2 ) and Mindanao in the south (102,000 km 2 ). The Philippines contains 421 principal river basins, 18 of which are considered major river basins, each with a minimum watershed area of 1,400 km 2 . These river basins are important sources of freshwater resources for meeting agricultural, commercial and domestic demands.

• PPT PowerPoint slide
• PNG larger image
• TIFF original image

The darker shaded areas on the map highlight the locations of the 24 basins that were included in this study, while the named points represent the basin outlets. The bar plot in the upper left corner represents the ranked total area of each of the 24 basins, while the graph in the lower left corner shows the period of available measured hydrological data used for model calibration for each basin.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0163941.g001

The climate of the Philippines can be divided into four distinct categories using the modified Coronas classification [ 5 – 7 ], as shown in Fig 1 . Climate Type I is characterized by a distinct dry period from November to April and a wet season from May to October. Type II results in rainfall being evenly distributed throughout year, but with a very pronounced rainy season from November to January. In Type III, the seasons are not very pronounced, but a relatively dry period prevails from November to April. Finally, in Type IV, precipitation is evenly distributed throughout the year. In this analysis, we used the modified Coronas classification as the basis of making the distinction between dry and wet months.

To assess the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime at the country scale, various river basins were selected. This was done on the basis of catchment size, climate type, the availability of historical streamflow data and their importance to agricultural production. A total of 24 basins were selected, which represent sub-basins of the 18 major river basins in the Philippines and which are located within in major agricultural provinces. These basins and their outlets are shown in Fig 1 . The basins selected include: 12 in Luzon, 3 in Visayas and 9 in Mindanao, with catchment sizes ranging from the San Juan River at 37.82 km 2 to Pared River at 26,825 km 2 (refer to barplot in Fig 1 ).

Climate models

To obtain reliable estimates of the likely impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime in the Philippines, determination of the most appropriate GCMs was needed. A further consideration is that GCMs vary both in their sensitivity to different levels of the atmosphere (from surface to 200hPA) and in their parameterization schemes. Downscaling was performed using the results from the sensitivity analysis provided by Manzanas (2015).

The MOSAICC framework, was designed to host a variety of GCMs. In this study, three GCMs appear to be the most effective at simulating climate for the Philippines: ECHAM5/MPI-OM (MPEH5) developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology; BCCR-BCM2.0 (BCM2) from the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, and CNRM-CM3 (CNCM3) developed by the Météo-France (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques). Furthermore, these GCMs are well documented by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) [ 8 ] and IPCC [ 9 ].

Based on the four Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), two likely scenarios were selected to simulate future climate change in the Philippines. The first SRES scenario (A1B) assumes very rapid economic growth, a global population that peaks in mid-century and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. The second scenario (A2) represents the negative extremes of high population growth, slow economic development and slow technological change. The two scenarios for the period 2010-2050 were compared with simulations of the 20th century (20C3M; referred to as baseline hereafter) which included the period 1971-2000. Calibration of the hydrological model was done using ERA-Interim (1979-2010), the latest global atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts [ 10 ].

Climate data used in this study include precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), where the latter was derived from maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures [ 11 ]. Basconcillo et al. (2015) [ 12 ] statistically downscaled three GCMs under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) via the FAO-MOSAICC Portal ( http://mosaicc.da.gov.ph ). ERA-Interim (1979-2010) is the reanalysis dataset used to generate climate data in the absence of actual climate observations. The quasi-observations were used as predictors for calibrating statistical downscaling models, which Manzanas et al., (2015) [ 13 ] attested to its better performance compared to the JRA-25 (1.125° x 1.125°) when compared with actual observations in the Philippines. ERA-Interim data was also used as quasi-observational inputs into the hydrological model because of its spatial and temporal homogeneity compared to the Philippines weather station observations that contained many missing values. The atmospheric elements used as predictors are meridional/zonal wind (U/V), specific humidity (Q) and temperature (T). The identified set of predictors used for downscaling are—U850, Q850, T1000—for Tmin and Tmax and—U850, U300, Q850, and T1000—for precipitation. The study downscaled these three variables at the weather station level using the three selected GCMs. There are 47/33/36 Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) stations for precipitation/Tmin/Tmax, respectively. The study also spatially interpolated the station-level downscaled climate data using the Analyse Utilisant le RELief pour l'HYdromt́éorologie (AURELHY) technique to obtain 10 km-gridded data for the whole country.

Hydrological model

The hydrological model STREAM (Spatial Tools for River basins and Environment and Analysis of Management options) was used in this study. STREAM is a spatially distributed GIS-based rainfall-runoff model, specifically suited to assess river flows in data scarce environments, as it relies on a water balance for stream flow estimations. The model, developed by Aerts et al., (1999) [ 14 ] is optimized for the analysis of the hydrological impact of land use and climate change in river basins. The model has proven to give reliable results in numerous other studies in various locations and climatic regimes [ 15 – 20 ].

STREAM solves the water balance using a gridded landscape in order to estimate stream flows. For each basin, derived from a digital elevation map (DEM), the accumulated runoff and groundwater storage was calculated on a monthly basis. To maintain important topological features in the digital terrain model while keeping calculation times acceptable, the downscaled climate data was resized to the same spatial resolution of the DEM at approximately 1 km. No additional interpolation was applied in this step.

In situ streamflow measurement data were used for model calibration. Data were digitized from physical records that contained daily runoff, while temporal coverage of the data series varied for each of the basins. Consecutive years with no missing data were selected for model calibration, to highlight the difference in temporal coverage. For instance, Fig 1 shows a temporal resolution of 3 years for the Agus basin, while for the Tukuran basin it is 14 years. As discharges were manually measured, quantifying the accuracy of the data with sufficient precision was an issue. As such, the degree of accuracy of records were categorized as “excellent”, “good”, “fair”, or “poor” using the following convention: “Excellent” means about 95% of daily discharges are within ±5% difference of the actual gauge height vs height computed from the rating curve; “Good” is within ±10%; and “Fair” is within ±15%; while “Poor” means daily discharges are below the 15% “Fair” accuracy. The median, mean and distributions of monthly discharge estimates were used for model calibration to account for missing data and variability in data quality.

Data analysis method

The black and red curves show the effect of an increasing mu , whereas the black and green curves show the effect of an increasing β . An increase in μ is associated with an increase in magnitude, while an increase in β is linked to an increase in the range.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0163941.g002

The results of the STREAM calibrations and seasonal water availability are shown in Fig 3 , where the downscaled average (1979-2010) seasonal water balances (precipitation-evaporation) are shown for four different periods (Dec-Feb, Mar-May, Jun-Aug and Sep-Nov) across the Philippines, with values mostly positive, and ranging up to 3000 mm. For climate Types I and III, values are mostly negative during the dry season, which means water from soil storage is mostly evaporated. The different climate types (see Fig 1 ) are well represented, with relatively dry periods for Types I and III in the months Dec-May (two left figures in Fig 3 ), whereas Type II is relatively wet during these periods. For climate Type IV, the water balance is relatively even throughout the year, while water availability is higher in mountainous regions compared to lower elevation areas.

The four figures show the water balance for Dec-Feb (top-left), Mar-May (top-right), Jun-Aug (bottom-left) and Sep-Nov (bottom-right). Surrounding this are the plotted model calibration results that compares the measured data series (blue shading) with modelled ones (box-plots). The blue lines represent the median of the measured data series, whereas the blue shaded areas represent the inter-quartile range. R 2 and volumetric efficiency ( VE ) are also presented in each of the plots.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0163941.g003

Calibration results of the hydrological simulations for the 24 basins are shown on the border of Fig 3 . The blue line represents the monthly median of measured runoff values, the shaded areas are the inter-quartile ranges, while the box-plots show the distribution of modelled runoff. For all basins, there is close agreement between simulated and measured runoff values in terms of magnitude, but also seasonal streamflow patterns which are well represented. Correlations between the monthly median measured and simulated runoff, range between R 2 = 0.60 for Gumain to R 2 = 0.98 for Agus and Panay. There is a large variation in VE ( Eq 1 ), which ranges from 0.47 for Tukuran, to a maximum of 0.87 for Panay. Distribution deviations often result from limited measured river flow data, as these small datasets do not include the wider distribution of river flows. Given the strength of the predicted vs. observed data for water quantity and seasonality in Fig 3 , there is sufficient confidence for using the same set of parameters to simulate the different GCM scenarios.

Fig 4 compares the yearly averaged water balance (PREC-PET) of the six scenarios (maps) with the baseline (as a percentage), which reveals an increase in water for most parts of the country for both scenarios. However, the A1B displays a larger increase compared to the A2 scenario. The GCMs also highlight a difference in water quantity. The largest increase was found using MPEH5, followed by CNCM3 and BCM2 ( Fig 4 ). Spatial differences are also evident and are consistent for all GCMs and all scenarios. In the northern part of the country, the highest increase in water availability was expected. When moving south, water excess decreases, including an expected decrease in water for parts of Mindanao. Patterns of increase or decrease do not seem related to specific climate types, except for climate Type II, which shows consistently lower values compared to the rest of the country (refer to Figs 1 and 4 ).

A positive number (%) indicates an increase of available water, a negative number indicates a decrease. The ( μ 1/2 ) and β of the Gumbel distribution were determined for all basins using Eq 3 . An increase or decrease in median streamflow compared to the baseline is displayed with a percentage in the box-plot, while an increase (+) or decrease (-) in variability ( β ) is also shown in the box-plot.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0163941.g004

To evaluate changes in the amount and variability of river flow, the calibrated model was used to determine μ 1/2 and β ( Eq 2 ), which represents stream flow magnitude and stream flow variability, respectively. For all basins, we found a relationship of R 2 > 0.98 when using non-linear regression. Next, the values of μ 1/2 and β were compared with the baseline scenario. The box-plots of Fig 4 show the results for each scenario. The BCM2 model predicts stream flow volumes and variability comparable with the current situation, but with a decrease in water availability for some basins. The CNCM3 and MPEH5 models reveal an increase in river discharge volumes and variability, which are both larger for the A1B scenario compared to A2. At the yearly timescale, an increase in both volume and variability would be expected for most basins.

Given that a redistribution of water between the dry and wet season might adversely affect agricultural practices, the seasonal variability of river runoff was studied in more detail. For the six different GCM-scenario combinations, the minimum, median, maximum and inter-quartiles of river discharge were calculated for the dry and wet season. Fig 5 reveals if these values increased (green bar) or decreased (red bar) compared to the baseline scenario for the dry (left) and wet (right) season. The size of the bar indicates the number of scenarios that experience an increase or decrease, respectively, whereas no bar indicates an equal number of scenarios that increased and decreased. For climate Type IV, the year round results were compared, as this zone has no distinct wet season. The wet season includes maximum rain periods for Type I (May-Oct) and Type II (Nov-Jan). For climate Type III we used the relatively dry period from Nov to Apr to distinguish between wet and dry. A very consistent overall increase in streamflow is predicted by all GCMs and all scenarios for the whole country in both the dry and wet season. The scenarios show that the most consistent increase was for Luzon in the wet and dry season, whereas results for Visayas and Mindanao in the dry season are less consistent. No clear trend was found when comparing the different climatic types. In general, there was an overall increase in water availability for the wet and dry season in the Philippines. The smallest increase, and potentially a projected decrease in current rainfall, was observed in the easternmost regions of Visayas and Mindanao for all model runs.

An increase in streamflow was indicated with a green bar and a decrease with a red bar. The different lengths of the horizontal bars indicate the number of scenarios with an increase or decrease for the dry (left) and wet (right) season.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0163941.g005

A general increase in water availability might be beneficial for the agricultural sector but there are other potential problems in the form of flooding during intense rainfall and higher peak flows. Therefore, the return periods (2, 10, 100 years; Eq 5 ) of peak flows were investigated and compared with baseline scenarios. Fig 6 reveals the percentage increase or decrease of return flows for each basin in the dry and wet season. For the dry season, an increase in peak flows were found for the CNCM3 and MPEH5 models in Luzon, whereas the magnitude of return flows would remain unchanged according to the BCM2 model. It was also expected that Luzon will experience the most dramatic increase in peak flows for all scenarios. Luzon and Viscayas can expect an increase in return flow compared to the baseline in the dry and wet season (see Fig 6 ). For Visayas and Mindanao, return periods are predicted to increase in the dry season, but remain similar to the current wet season.

An increase or decrease in return flow is expressed as a percentage compared to the baseline scenario. Return flows for the dry period are shown in the white box and return periods of the wet season in the gray box (note the difference in scale). The dots on the right of each plot indicate the GCM and scenario used (refer to the legend).

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0163941.g006

The water balance calculations show an overall increase in water quantity for both the wet and dry seasons with river flow distributions revealing an overall increase in water availability. The data reveals a clear north-south trend rather than a trend associated with different climatic types. The northern part of the country (Luzon) is expected to experience a dramatic increase in peak river runoff, while Visayas and Mindanao are predicted to experience an increase in river discharge that is not associated with higher peak flows. Areas with climate Type IV will experience the least impact from climate change, apart from a small increase in water quantity and return periods of high water levels. However, due to data scarcity, hydrological simulations were only performed for three basins in Visayas and nine in Mindanao. Moreover, no representative basin from climate Type II was included.

The projected increase in water availability would benefit the agricultural sector, especially in the dry season when water is scarce. Furthermore, these near-future projections show a reduction in vulnerability to drought of rainfed cropping systems, which may facilitate the expansion of the current irrigated cropping systems in the wet season. However, the large increase in return floods in Luzon might jeopardize this advantage. An increase in extreme rainfall events will aggravate water induced soil erosion in highland areas [ 23 ], especially at the onset of the growing season when fields are bare. Low-lying areas on the other hand will be exposed to increased flood risk. The order of magnitude of this flood risk is especially concerning. Given these projections, it is evident that adaptation measures for flood control such as sustainable land management, ecosystem services and infrastructural works are necessary to reduce climate change impacts.

Future studies might utilize a similar methodology to study the impacts of climate change on water resources for a wider array of climate scenarios and downscaling techniques using the next generation of climate models. Results for specific basins should be interpreted as a trend rather than absolute changes, as GCMs have some inherent uncertainties. While the downscaled climate projections include many of the local climatological features, they can still be considered as rather coarse from a hydrological perspective. However, it is reassuring that closely located basins show similar trends in terms of changes in magnitude and variability.

Three GCMs with two different scenarios each show a clear increase in river flows for the wet and dry season in the Philippines. While the minimum river flow levels were found to increase, so did flow variability, due largely to higher magnitude maximum flows. Climate change effects for Visayas and Mindanao are expected to be relatively mild compared to Luzon, where a dramatic increase in return intervals for maximum river flow rates is predicted. Benefits of an increase in availability of water resources could be jeopardized by pronounced water-induced soil erosion and enhanced risks of future floods.

Acknowledgments

We thank the FAO and The Assessments of Climate Change Impacts and Mapping of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity under Climate Change (AMICAF), funded by the Japanese Government, for their generous support. Two reviewers are thanked for their valuable comments.

Author Contributions

• Conceptualization: PLMT AP HK.
• Data curation: PLMT AP SK JM.
• Formal analysis: PLMT AP SK.
• Funding acquisition: HK.
• Investigation: PLMT AP HK SK JM.
• Methodology: PLMT AP HK.
• Project administration: PLMT AP HK.
• Resources: HK.
• Software: AP HK.
• Supervision: HK CPCD CJR.
• Validation: PLMT AP.
• Visualization: AP.
• Writing – original draft: PLMT AP HK SK.
• Writing – review & editing: HK JM CPCD CJR.
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• 9. IPCC. Available SRES Scenarion Runs for AR4; 2014. http://www.ipcc-data.org/sim/gcm_monthly/SRES_AR4/index.html .

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Climate change and mental health in the Philippines

Rowalt carpo alibudbud.

Assistant Professorial Lecturer, Department of Sociology and Behavioral Sciences, De La Salle University, Manila, Philippines. Email: [email protected]

Associated Data

Data availability is not applicable to this article as no new data were created or analysed in this study.

The mental health repercussions of the climate crisis are observed annually in the Philippines, one of the world's most climate-vulnerable countries. This paper explores these repercussions by examining the aftermath of Typhoon Haiyan. It shows that mental health problems persisted beyond the typhoon's immediate aftermath among a large number of survivors. Since the mental health system was fragile, the affected community improved their mental health services through the help of local and international non-governmental organisations. Nonetheless, several challenges must be addressed as the country faces the climate crisis.

Climate change has a negative impact on the mental health of populations. Climate-related changes in humidity, rainfall, droughts, wildfires and floods are associated with psychological distress, poorer mental health, increased mortality among people with mental disorders, higher psychiatric hospital admissions and heightened suicide rates. 1 In the Philippines, evidence suggests that climate-related events may worsen anxiety, distress and health inequalities among Filipinos. 2 , 3

Climate change in the Philippines

The Philippines is one of the world's most climate-vulnerable countries. 2 It is confronted with at least 20 typhoons every year, which lead to the destruction of houses and livelihoods, displacement of thousands and hundreds of deaths. 3 It also experiences extreme droughts and rising sea levels. 2 , 3 These not only lead to the forced displacement of communities but also threaten food security. 2 , 3 Given the negative effects of these adverse social and environmental conditions on mental health, 4 climate-related anxiety has affected the Philippine population. In 2022, a global survey showed that the Philippines has the highest number of young people experiencing high levels of anxiety and negative emotions associated with the climate crisis. 3 Thus, there is an ever-increasing need for a strong and resilient mental health system.

Typhoon Haiyan and its mental health repercussions

The intersection of mental illness and the climate crisis in the Philippines is exemplified in the aftermath of Super Typhoon Haiyan (local name Yolanda) in November 2013. 5 , 6 Typhoon Haiyan is one of the strongest typhoons to ever hit land in recorded history. 5 , 6 It has turned thriving communities into wastelands, destroyed decades-long livelihoods, displaced four million people, destroyed one million homes and killed at least 6000 people. 5 , 7 In its aftermath, local health authorities noted that those needing psychological help easily tripled because the population ‘were all shocked’. 5 Likewise, the authorities also stated that there were rising cases of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression. 5 Although no official records were collated at that time owing to limited resources and lack of structure, 5 a study found that about 80.5% of survivors who helped with the typhoon relief response were at risk for mental disorders 4 months after the typhoon. 8 This rate of people at risk for mental disorder following the typhoon is higher than the estimated national rate of common mental disorders in the Philippines, such as schizophrenia (0.4%) and depression (14.5%), before the typhoon. 9 It is also higher than the rate of PTSD (7–24%) found after other natural disasters, such as the 2005 Hurricane Katrina, the 2004 Asian tsunami and the 2010 Yushu earthquake, as well as depression (14%) and psychological distress (15%) following the 2011 Japan earthquake. 10

However, at that time, only ten psychiatrists served a population of 4.7 million in the Philippines’ critically hit region, Eastern Visayas. 5 This was worsened by the badly damaged regional hospital. 5 , 6 Thus, international and national organisations became the primary providers of mental health services. 5 However, it was reported that there was no clear structure in these services: ‘some were already “overprocessed,” having received so many psychological services. But many others, especially poorer communities, were left behind’. 5 Thus, the months following the aftermath of Typhoon Haiyan led to extreme social and mental health adversities against a background of a fragile mental health system.

A year after, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that over 800 000 people in the region suffered from various mental health conditions. Although most of these people could be treated in their homes, at least 10% needed comprehensive psychiatric treatment for depression, anxiety, PTSD or schizophrenia, including further medication and support. 6 For the survivors, it was ‘stark evidence [of] why we need to address the mental health situation, because every time these disasters come, it takes a mentally healthy individual to cope with challenges’. 5 Hence, mental health adversities from Typhoon Haiyan persisted in a large number of survivors even a year later.

Given the evident shortcomings in the mental health care system and the persistent mental health problems after Typhoon Haiyan, the Eastern Visayas region partnered with the WHO to establish the Mental Health Gap Action Programme for all its health units. 5 As a result, by December 2014, it became the first Philippine region where mental healthcare and support are present at primary, secondary and tertiary healthcare levels. 5 In the same year, 300 community workers and 70 health professionals were trained to assess and treat severe mental health problems. 5 The regional government further supported these efforts by allocating a budget for disaster response and community-based interventions for psychosocial needs in the succeeding years. 5 Thus, various mental health system improvements have been accomplished in Eastern Visayas by incorporating mental health services into primary care and augmenting the mental health workforce with the help of non-governmental organisations.

Towards building a climate-responsive mental health system

Although several improvements have indeed been accomplished, several challenges remain for the Philippine mental health system. Among other things, mental health stigma remains pervasive in the Philippines, including Eastern Visayas. 5 Moreover, only 3–5% of the total government health budget is spent on mental health. 2 Human resources are also scarce, with only about 0.5 psychiatrists per 100 000 population and a total ratio of 2 to 3 mental health workers per 100 000 population. 11 , 12 Given this situation, the country's new Mental Health Act in 2018 was met with the hope of filling these gaps in mental health services. 2

The Mental Health Act mandates the government to strengthen mental health research, increase the mental health workforce through training, provide mental health services in all hospitals and community health centres, and expand mental health promotion in schools, communities and workplaces. 2 , 11 , 12 In addition, envisioning the future climate crisis needs of the Philippines, it advocates hope that it can act as a springboard for creating a climate-resilient and accessible mental health system. 2

Nonetheless, the Mental Health Act has been critiqued as ‘nothing more than “just an act”’. 13 This is because healthcare expenditure for mental health remained at 3–5% despite the Act's implementation. 13 , 14 Likewise, the ratio of psychiatrists remained low (0.4 psychiatrist per 200 000 population) compared with other Western Pacific countries of similar economic status, such as Indonesia. 13 Moreover, there remains a paucity of research that can translate to evidence-based culturally sensitive interventions and policies. 14 The Act's implementation was also criticised for its disproportionate focus on clinical mental health, resilience and individual coping, despite the resonating need for social intervention for social environmental factors, such as climate change, experienced in the Philippines. 14 Consequently, mental health promotion and services were regarded as outdated despite the new Mental Health Act. 13 , 14

Given the Philippines’ vulnerability to the worsening climate crisis and the weaknesses in its mental health system, reforms and improvements are needed in mental health services, resources and policy implementation. As exemplified by the Eastern Visayas region, this can be started by integrating mental health services into primary care services, increasing the mental health training of health professionals and community workers, collaborating with non-governmental organisations and sustaining support towards achieving better mental health. 5 , 6 In addition, the low number of psychiatrists and mental health professionals can be addressed by supporting and increasing training institutions and their capacity. Furthermore, since there is high climate-related anxiety among Filipino youth, hope-based climate education for the empowerment of young people can also be provided since there is evidence that this might help them cope. 7 Likewise, mental health information systems need to be strengthened to adequately assess the needs of disaster-affected localities, including accounting for affected populations and mental health workers. By doing so, data from the information systems can inform mental health and psychosocial support services in affected localities. Importantly, the implementation of the Mental Health Act must be strengthened.

Conclusions

Overall, the mental health repercussions of the climate crisis are experienced annually in the Philippines. It has exposed weaknesses in the Philippines’ mental health system, including low human resources, lack of funding and poor policy implementation. Despite having limited resources, as have other low- and middle-income countries, societal efforts paved the way for improvements in recent years. Nonetheless, more needs to be done as the country gears up for future challenges stemming from the climate crisis. As a start, evidence suggests a need to strengthen disaster responder training, social support, surveillance systems and communication in disaster response. 8 , 10 Moreover, further research, including longitudinal studies, is needed to understand climate-related mental health conditions and responses. 2 , 8 , 10

Data availability

This research received no specific grant from any funding agency, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.

Declaration of interest

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Philippines

Philippines: Country Climate and Development Report 2022

Attachments.

Stronger Climate Action Will Support Sustainable Recovery and Accelerate Poverty Reduction in the Philippines

MANILA, November 09, 2022 – Climate change is exacting a heavy toll on Filipinos’ lives, properties, and livelihoods, and left unaddressed, could hamper the country’s ambition of becoming an upper middle-income country by 2040. However, the Philippines has many of the tools and instruments required to reduce damages substantially, according to the World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) for the Philippines, released today.

With 50 percent of its 111 million population living in urban areas, and many cities in coastal areas, the Philippines is vulnerable to sea level rise. Changes due to the variability and intensity of rainfall in the country and increased temperatures will affect food security and the safety of the population.

Multiple indices rank the Philippines as one of the countries most affected by extreme climate events. The country has experienced highly destructive typhoons almost annually for the past 10 years. Annual losses from typhoons have been estimated at 1.2 percent of GDP.

Climate action in the Philippines must address both extreme and slow-onset events. Adaptation and mitigation actions, some of which are already underway in the country, would reduce vulnerability and future losses if fully implemented.

“Climate impacts threaten to significantly lower the country’s GDP and the well-being of Filipinos by 2040. However, policy actions and investments – principally to protect valuable infrastructure from typhoons and to make agriculture more resilient through climate-smart measures -- could reduce these negative climate impacts by two-thirds,” said World Bank Vice President for East Asia and Pacific, Manuela V. Ferro.

The private sector has a crucial role to play in accelerating the adoption of green technologies and ramping up climate finance by working with local financial institutions and regulators.

“ The investments needed to undertake these actions are substantial, but not out of reach, ” said IFC Acting Vice President for Asia and the Pacific, John Gandolfo . “ The business leaders and bankers who embrace climate as a business opportunity and offer these low-carbon technologies, goods and services will be the front runners of our future. ”

The report also undertakes an in-depth analysis of challenges and opportunities for climate-related actions in agriculture, water, energy, and transport. Among the recommendations are:

• Avoiding new construction in flood-prone areas.
• Improving water storage to reduce the risk of damaging floods and droughts. This will also increase water availability.
• Extending irrigation in rainfed areas and promoting climate-smart agriculture practices such as Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD).
• Making social protection programs adaptive and scalable to respond to climate shocks.
• Removing obstacles that private actors face in scaling investments in renewable energy.
• Ensuring new buildings are energy efficient and climate resilient.

Many climate actions will make the Philippines more resilient while also contributing to mitigating climate change.

“The Philippines would benefit from an energy transition towards more renewable energy. Accelerated decarbonization would reduce electricity costs by about 20 percent below current levels which is good for the country’s competitiveness and would also dramatically reduce air pollution,” said Ferro.

Even with vigorous adaptation efforts, climate change will affect many people. Some climate actions may also have adverse effects on particular groups, such as workers displaced by the move away from high-emission activities. The report recommends that the existing social protection system in the country be strengthened and scaled up to provide support to affected sectors and groups.

World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports : The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) are new core diagnostic reports that integrate climate change and development considerations. They will help countries prioritize the most impactful actions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and boost adaptation while delivering on broader development goals. CCDRs build on data and rigorous research and identify main pathways to reduce GHG emissions and climate vulnerabilities, including the costs and challenges as well as benefits and opportunities from doing so. The reports suggest concrete, priority actions to support the low-carbon, resilient transition. As public documents, CCDRs aim to inform governments, citizens, the private sector, and development partners and enable engagements with the development and climate agenda. CCDRs will feed into other core Bank Group diagnostics, country engagements, and operations to help attract funding and direct financing for high-impact climate action.

• 10 Things You Should Know About the World Bank Group’s First Batch of Country Climate and Development Reports
• CCDR Video link

PRESS RELEASE NO: 2023/025/EAP

In Washington: Kym Smithies [email protected]

In Manila: David Llorito [email protected]

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Introduction

Climate change is happening now. Evidences being seen support the fact that the change cannot simply be explained by natural variation. The most recent scientific assessments have confirmed that this warming of the climate system since the mid-20th century is most likely to be due to human activities; and thus, is due to the observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels and land use change. Current warming has increasingly posed quite considerable challenges to man and the environment, and will continue to do so in the future. Presently, some autonomous adaptation is taking place, but we need to consider a more pro-active adaptation planning in order to ensure sustainable development.

What does it take to ensure that adaptation planning has a scientific basis? Firstly, we need to be able to investigate the potential consequences of anthropogenic or human induced climate change and to do this, a plausible future climate based on a reliable and accurate baseline (or present) climate must be constructed. This is what climate scientists call a climate change scenario. It is a projection of the response of the climate system to future emissions or concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and is simulated using climate models. Essentially, it describes possible future changes in climate variables (such as temperatures, rainfall, storminess, winds, etc.) based on baseline climatic conditions.

The climate change scenarios outputs (projections) are an important step forward in improving our understanding of our complex climate, particularly in the future. These show how our local climate could change dramatically should the global community fail to act towards effectively reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate Change Scenarios

As has been previously stated, climate change scenarios are developed using climate models (UNFCCC). These models use mathematical representations of the climate system, simulating the physical and dynamical processes that determine global/regional climate. They range from simple, one-dimensional models to more complex ones such as global climate models (known as GCMs), which model the atmosphere and oceans, and their interactions with land surfaces. They also model change on a regional scale (referred to as regional climate models), typically estimating change in areas in grid boxes that are approximately several hundred kilometers wide. It should be noted that GCMs/RCMs provide only an average change in climate for each grid box, although realistically climates can vary considerably within each grid. Climate models used to develop climate change scenarios are run using different forcings such as the changing greenhouse gas concentrations. These emission scenarios known as the SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to give the range of plausible future climate. These emission scenarios cover a range of demographic, societal, economic and technological storylines. They are also sometimes referred to as emission pathways. Table 1 presents the four different storylines (A1, A2, B1 and B2) as defined in the IPCC SRES.

Climate change is driven by factors such as changes in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols, land cover and radiation, and their combinations, which then result in what is called radiative forcing (positive or warming and negative or cooling effect). We do not know how these different drivers will specifically affect the future climate, but the model simulation will provide estimates of its plausible ranges.

A number of climate models have been used in developing climate scenarios. The capacity to do climate modeling usually resides in advanced meteorological agencies and in international research laboratories for climate modeling such as the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research of the UK Met Office (in the United kingdom), the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (in the United States), the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (in Germany), the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (in Canada), the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (in Australia), the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency (in Japan), and numerous others. These centers have been developing their climate models and continuously generate new versions of these models in order address the limitations and uncertainties inherent in models.

For the climate change scenarios in the Philippines presented in this Report, the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) model was used. It is a PC-based regional climate model developed at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research to facilitate impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments in developing countries where capacities to do modeling are limited. Two time slices centered on 2020 (2006-2035) and 2050 (2036-2065) were used in the climate simulations using three emission scenarios; namely, the A2 (high-range emission scenario), the A1B (medium- range emission scenario) and the B2 (low-range emission scenario).

The high-range emission scenario connotes that society is based on self-reliance, with continuously growing population, a regionally-oriented economic development but with fragmented per capita economic growth and technological change. On the other hand, the mid-range emission scenario indicates a future world of very rapid economic growth, with the global population peaking in mid-century and declining thereafter and there is rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies with energy generation balanced across all sources. The low-range emission scenario, in contrast, indicates a world with local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, with continuously increasing global population, but at a rate lower than of the high-range, intermediate levels of economic development, less rapid and more diverse technological change but oriented towards environment protection and social equity.

To start the climate simulations or model runs, outputs (climate information) from the relatively coarse resolution GCMs are used to provide high resolution (using finer grid boxes, normally 10km-100km) climate details, through the use of downscaling techniques. Downscaling is a method that derives local to regional scale (10km-100km x 10km-100km grids) information from larger-scale models (150km-300km x 150km-300km grids) as shown in Fig.1. The smaller the grid, the finer is the resolution giving more detailed climate information.

The climate simulations presented in this report used boundary data that were from the ECHAM4 and HadCM3Q0 (the regional climate models used in the PRECIS model software).

How were the downscaling techniques applied using the PRECIS model?

To run regional climate models, boundary conditions are needed in order to produce local climate scenarios. These boundary conditions are outputs of the GCMs. For the PRECIS model, the following boundary data and control runs were used:

For the high-range scenario, the GCM boundary data used was from ECHAM4. This is the 4th generation coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, which uses a comprehensive parameterization package developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany. Downscaling was to a grid resolution of 25km x 25km; thus, allowing more detailed regional information of the projected climate. Simulated baseline climate used for evaluation of the models capacity of reproducing present climate was the 1971-2000 model run. Its outputs were compared with the 1971-2000 observed values.

For the mid-range scenario, the GCM boundary data was from the HadCM3Q0 version 3 of the coupled model developed at the Hadley Centre. Downscaling was also to a grid resolution of 25km x 25km and the same validation process was undertaken.

For running the low-range scenario, the same ECHAM4 model was used. However, the validation process was only for the period of 1989 to 2000 because the available GCM boundary data in the model was limited to this period.

The simulations for all 3 scenarios were for three periods; 1971 to 2000, 2020 and 2050. The period 1971 to 2000 simulation is referred to as the baseline climate, outputs of which are used to evaluate the models capacity of reproducing present climate (in other words, the control run). By comparing the outputs (i.e., temperature and rainfall) with the observed values for the 1971 to 2000 period, the models ability to realistically represent the regional climatological features within the country is verified. The differences between the outputs and the observed values are called the biases of the model. The 2020 and 2050 outputs are then mathematically corrected, based on the comparison of the models performance.

The main outputs of the simulations for the three SRES scenarios (high-range, mid-range and low-range) are the following:

• projected changes in seasonal and annual mean temperature
• projected changes in minimum and maximum temperatures
• projected changes in seasonal rainfall and
• projected frequency of extreme events

The seasonal variations are as follows:

• the DJF (December, January, February or northeast monsoon locally known as amihan) season
• the MAM (March, April, May or summer) season
• the JJA (June, July, August or southwest monsoon season, or habagat) season and
• the SON (September, October, November or transition from southwest to northeast monsoon) season

On the other hand, extreme events are defined as follows:

• extreme temperature (assessed as number of days with maximum temperature greater than 35°C, following the threshold values used in other countries in the Asia Pacific region)
• dry days (assessed as number of dry days or day with rainfall equal or less than 2.5mm/day, following the World Meteorological Organization standard definition of dry days used in a number of countries) and
• extreme rainfall (assessed as number of days with daily rainfall greater than 300mm, which for wet tropical areas, like the Philippines, is considerably intense that could trigger disastrous events).

How were the uncertainties in the modeling simulations dealt with?

Modeling of our future climate always entails uncertainties. These are inherent in each step in the simulations/modeling done because of a number of reasons. Firstly, emissions scenarios are uncertain. Predicting emissions is largely dependent on how we can predict human behavior, such as changes in population, economic growth, technology, energy availability and national and international policies (which include predicting results of the international negotiations on reducing greenhouse gas emissions). Secondly, current understanding of the carbon cycle and of sources and sinks of non-carbon greenhouse gases are still incomplete. Thirdly, consideration of very complex feedback processes in the climate system in the climate models used can also contribute to the uncertainties in the outputs generated as these could not be adequately represented in the models.

But while it is difficult to predict global greenhouse gas emission rates far into the future, it is stressed that projections for up to 2050 show little variation between different emission scenarios, as these near-term changes in climate are strongly affected by greenhouse gases that have already been emitted and will stay in the atmosphere for the next 50 years. Hence, for projections for the near-term until 2065, outputs of the mid-range emission scenario are presented in detail in this Report.

Ideally, numerous climate models and a number of the emission scenarios provided in the SRES should be used in developing the climate change scenarios in order to account for the limitations in each of the models used, and the numerous ways global greenhouse gas emissions would go. The different model outputs should then be analyzed to calculate the median of the future climate projections in the selected time slices. By running more climate models for each emission scenarios, the higher is the statistical confidence in the resulting projections as these constitute the ensemble representing the median values of the model outputs.

The climate projections for the three emission scenarios were obtained using the PRECIS model only due to several constraints and limitations. These constraints and limitations are:

Access to climate models: at the start, PAGASA had not accessed climate models due to computing and technical capacity requirements needed to run them;

Time constraints: the use of currently available computers required substantial computing time to run the models (measured in weeks and months). This had been partly addressed under the capacity upgrading initiatives being implemented by the MDGF Joint Programme which include procurement of more powerful computers and acquiring new downscaling techniques. Improved equipment and new techniques have reduced the computing time requirements to run the models. However, additional time is still needed to run the models using newly acquired downscaling techniques; and

The PAGASA strives to improve confidence in the climate projections and is continuously exerting efforts to upgrade its technical capacities and capabilities. Models are run as soon as these are acquired with the end-goal of producing an ensemble of the projections. Updates on the projections, including comparisons with the current results, will be provided as soon as these are available.

What is the level of confidence in the climate projections?

The IPCC stresses that there is a large degree of uncertainty in predicting what the future world will be despite taking into account all reasonable future developments. Nevertheless, there is high confidence in the occurrence of global warming due to emissions of greenhouse gases caused by humans, as affirmed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Global climate simulations done to project climate scenarios until the end of the 21st century indicate that, although there are vast differences between the various scenarios, the values of temperature increase begin to diverge only after the middle of this century (shown in Fig.3). The long lifetimes of the greenhouse gases (in particular, that of carbon dioxide) already in the atmosphere is the reason for this behavior of this climate response to largely varying emission scenarios.

Model outputs that represent the plausible local climate scenarios in this Report are indicative to the extent that they reflect the large-scale changes (in the regional climate model used) modified by the projected local conditions in the country.

It also should be stressed further that confidence in the climate change information depends on the variable being considered (e.g., temperature increase, rainfall change, extreme event indices, etc.). In all the model runs regardless of emission scenarios used, there is greater confidence in the projections of mean temperature than that of the others. On the other hand, projections of rainfall and extreme events entail consideration of convective processes which are inherently complex, and thus, limiting the degree of confidence in the outputs.

What are the possible applications of these model-generated climate scenarios?

Climate scenarios are commonly required in climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments to provide alternative views of future conditions considered likely to affect society, systems and sectors, including a quantification of climate risks, challenges and opportunities. climate scenario outputs could be used in any of the following:.

• to illustrate projected climate change in a given administrative region/province
• to provide data for impact/adaptation assessment studies
• to communicate potential consequences of climate change (e.g., specifying a future changed climate to estimate potential shifts in say, vegetation, species threatened or at risk of extinction, etc.) and
• for strategic planning (e.g., quantifying projected sea level rise and other climate changes for the design of coastal infrastructure/defenses such as sea walls, etc.)

Current Climate and Observed Trends

Current climate change in the philippines.

The world has increasingly been concerned with the changes in our climate due largely to adverse impacts being seen not just globally, but also in regional, national and even, local scales. In 1988, the United Nations established the IPCC to evaluate the risks of climate change and provide objective information to governments and various communities such as the academe, research organizations, private sector, etc. The IPCC has successively done and published its scientific assessment reports on climate change, the first of which was released in 1990. These reports constitute consensus documents produced by numerous lead authors, contributing authors and review experts representing Country Parties of the UNFCCC, including invited eminent scientists in the field from all over the globe.

In 2007, the IPCC made its strongest statement yet on climate change in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), when it concluded that the warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and that most of the warming during the last 50 years or so (e.g., since the mid-20th century) is due to the observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities. It is also very likely that changes in the global climate system will continue into the future, and that these will be larger than those seen in our recent past (IPCC, 2007a).

Fig.4 shows the 0.74 C increase in global mean temperature during the last 150 years compared with the 1961-1990 global average. It is the steep increase in temperature since the mid-20th century that is causing worldwide concern, particularly in terms of increasing vulnerability of poor developing countries, like the Philippines, to adverse impacts of even incremental changes in temperatures.

The IPCC AR4 further states that the substantial body of evidence that support this most recent warming includes rising surface temperature, sea level rise and decrease in snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere (shown in Fig.5).

Additionally, there have been changes in extreme events globally and these include;

• widespread changes in extreme temperatures observed;
• cold days, cold nights and frost becoming less frequent;
• hot days, hot nights and heat waves becoming more frequent; and
• observational evidence for an increase of intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs).

However, there are differences between and within regions. For instance, in the Southeast Asia region which includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, among others, temperature increases have been observed; although magnitude varies from one country to another. Changes in rainfall patterns, characteristically defined by changes in monsoon performance, have also been noted. Analysis of trends of extreme daily events (temperatures and rainfall) in the Asia Pacific region (including Australia and New Zealand, and parts of China and Japan) also indicate spatial coherence in the increase of hot days, warm nights and heat waves, and the decrease of cold days, cold nights and frost; although, there is no definite direction of rainfall change across the entire region (Manton et. al., 2001).

Current Climate Trends in the Philippines

The Philippines, like most parts of the globe, has also exhibited increasing temperatures as shown in Fig.6 below. The graph of observed mean temperature anomalies (or departures from the 1971-2000 normal values) during the period 1951 to 2010 indicate an increase of 0.648 C or an average of 0.0108 C per year-increase.

The increase in maximum (or daytime) temperatures and minimum (or night time) temperatures are shown in Fig.7 and Fig.8. During the last 60 years, maximum and minimum temperatures are seen to have increased by 0.36 ºC and 1.0°C, respectively.

Analysis of trends of tropical cyclone occurrence or passage within the so-called Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) show that an average of 20 tropical cyclones form and/or cross the PAR per year. The trend shows a high variability over the decades but there is no indication of increase in the frequency. However, there is a very slight increase in the number of tropical cyclones with maximum sustained winds of greater than 150kph and above (typhoon category) being exhibited during El NiÑo event (See Fig.10).

Moreover, the analysis on tropical cyclone passage over the three main islands (Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao), the 30-year running means show that there has been a slight increase in the Visayas during the 1971 to 2000 as compared with the 1951 to 1980 and 1960-1990 periods (See Fig.11).

To detect trends in extreme daily events, indices had been developed and used. Analysis of extreme daily maximum and minimum temperatures (hot-days index and cold-nights index, respectively) show there are statistically significant increasing number of hot days but decreasing number of cool nights (as shown in Fig.12 and Fig.13). 

However, the trends of increases or decreases in extreme daily rainfall are not statistically significant; although, there have been changes in extreme rain events in certain areas in the Philippines. For instance, intensity of extreme daily rainfall is already being experienced in most parts of the country, but not statistically significant (see in Fig.14). Likewise, the frequency has exhibited an increasing trend, also, not statistically significant (as shown in Fig.15).

The rates of increases or decreases in the trends are point values (i.e., specific values in the synoptic weather stations only) and are available at PAGASA, if needed.

Climate Projections

Projections on seasonal temperature increase and rainfall change, and total frequency of extreme events nationally and in the provinces using the mid-range scenario outputs are presented in this chapter. A comparison of these values with the high- and low- range scenarios in 2020 and 2050 is provided in the technical annexes.

It is to be noted that all the projected changes are relative to the baseline (1971-2000) climate. For example, a projected 1.0 C-increase in 2020 in a province means that 1.0 C is added to the baseline mean temperature value of the province as indicated in the table to arrive at the value of projected mean temperature. Therefore, if the baseline mean temperature is 27.8 C, then the projected mean temperature in the future is (27.8 C + 1.0 C) or 28.8 C.

In a similar manner, for say, a +25%-rainfall change in a province, it means that 25% of the seasonal mean rainfall value in the said province (from table of baseline climate) is added to the mean value. Thus, if the baseline seasonal rainfall is 900mm, then projected rainfall in the future is 900mm + 225mm or 1125mm.

This means that we are already experiencing some of the climate change shown in the findings under the mid-range scenario, as we are now into the second decade of the century. Classification of climate used the Corona's four climate types (Types I to IV), based on monthly rainfall received during the year. A province is considered to have Type I climate if there is a distinct dry and a wet season; wet from June to November and dry, the rest of the year. Type II climate is when there is no dry period at all throughout the year, with a pronounced wet season from November to February. On the other hand, Type III climate is when there is a short dry season, usually from February to April, and Type IV climate is when the rainfall is almost evenly distributed during the whole year. The climate classification in the Philippines is shown in Fig.16.

Seasonal Temperature Change

All areas of the Philippines will get warmer, more so in the relatively warmer summer months. Mean temperatures in all areas in the Philippines are expected to rise by 0.9 C to 1.1 C in 2020 and by 1.8 C to 2.2 C in 2050. Likewise, all seasonal mean temperatures will also have increases in these time slices; and these increases during the four seasons are quite consistent in all parts of the country. Largest temperature increase is projected during the summer (MAM) season.

Seasonal Rainfall Change

Generally, there is reduction in rainfall in most parts of the country during the summer (MAM) season. However, rainfall increase is likely during the southwest monsoon (JJA) season until the transition (SON) season in most areas of Luzon and Visayas, and also, during the northeast monsoon (DJF) season, particularly, in provinces/areas characterized as Type II climate in 2020 and 2050. There is however, generally decreasing trend in rainfall in Mindanao, especially by 2050.

There are varied trends in the magnitude and direction of the rainfall changes, both in 2020 and 2050. What the projections clearly indicate are the likely increase in the performance of the southwest and the northeast monsoons in the provinces exposed to these climate controls when they prevail over the country. Moreover, the usually wet seasons become wetter with the usually dry seasons becoming also drier; and these could lead to more occurrences of floods and dry spells/droughts, respectively.

Extreme Temperature Events

Hot temperatures will continue to become more frequent in the future. Fig.19 shows that the number of days with maximum temperature exceeding 35 C (following value used by other countries in the Asia Pacific region in extreme events analysis) is increasing in 2020 and 2050.

Extreme Rainfall Events

Heavy daily rainfall will continue to become more frequent, extreme rainfall is projected to increase in Luzon and Visayas only, but number of dry days is expected to increase in all parts of the country in 2020 and 2050. Figures 20 and 21 show the projected increase in number of dry days (with dry day defined as that with rainfall less than 2.5mm) and the increase in number of days with extreme rainfall (defined as daily rainfall exceeding 300 mm) compared with the observed (baseline) values, respectively.

Climate Projections for Provinces

Impacts of climate change.

Climate change is one of the most fundamental challenges ever to confront humanity. Its adverse impacts are already being seen and may intensify exponentially over time if nothing is done to reduce further emissions of greenhouse gases. Decisively dealing NOW with climate change is key to ensuring sustainable development, poverty eradication and safeguarding economic growth. Scientific assessments indicate that the cost of inaction now will be more costly in the future. Thus, economic development needs to be shifted to a low-carbon emission path.

In 1992, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted as the basis for a global response to the problem. The Philippines signed the UNFCCC on 12 June 1992 and ratified the international treaty on 2 August 1994. Presently, the Convention enjoys near-universal membership, with 194 Country Parties.

Recognizing that the climate system is a shared resource which is greatly affected by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, the UNFCCC has set out an overall framework for intergovernmental efforts to consider what can be done to reduce global warming and to cope with whatever temperature increases are inevitable. Its ultimate objective is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system.

Countries are actively discussing and negotiating ways to deal with the climate change problem within the UNFCCC using two central approaches. The first task is to address the root cause by reducing greenhouse gas emissions from human activity. The means to achieve this are very contentious, as it will require radical changes in the way many societies are organized, especially in respect to fossil fuel use, industry operations, land use, and development. Within the climate change arena, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is called mitigation.

The second task in responding to climate change is to manage its impacts. Future impacts on the environment and society are now inevitable, owing to the amount of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere from past decades of industrial and other human activities, and to the added amounts from continued emissions over the next few decades until such time as mitigation policies and actions become effective. We are therefore committed to changes in the climate. Taking steps to cope with the changed climate conditions both in terms of reducing adverse impacts and taking advantage of potential benefits is called adaptation.

What if the emissions are less or greater?

Responses of the local climate to the mid-range compared to the high- and low-range scenarios are as shown in Fig. 22 below. Although there are vast differences in the projections, the so-called temperature anomalies or difference in surface temperature increase begin to diverge only in the middle of the 21st century. As has already been stated, the climate in the next 30 to 40 years is greatly influenced by past greenhouse gas emissions. The long lifetimes of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere, with the exception of methane (with a lifetime of only 13 years), will mean that it will take at least 30 to 40 years for the atmosphere to stabilize even if mitigation measures are put in place, not withstanding that in the near future, there could be some off-setting between sulfate aerosols (cooling effect) and the greenhouse gas concentrations (warming effect).

Likely impacts of Climate Change

A warmer world is certain to impact on systems and sectors; although, magnitude of impacts will depend on factors such as sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity to climate risks. In most cases, likely impacts will be adverse. However, there could be instances when likely impacts present opportunities for potential benefits as in the case of the so-called carbon fertilization effect in which increased carbon dioxide could lead to increased yield provided temperatures do not exceed threshold values for a given crop/cultivar.

Water Resources

In areas/regions where rainfall is projected to decrease, there will be water stress (both in quantity and quality), which in turn, will most likely cascade into more adverse impacts, particularly on forestry, agriculture and livelihood, health, and human settlement. Large decreases in rainfall and longer drier periods will affect the amount of water in watersheds and dams which provide irrigation services to farmers, especially those in rain fed areas, thereby, limiting agricultural production. Likewise, energy production from dams could also be rendered insufficient in those areas where rainfall is projected to decrease, and thus, could largely affect the energy sufficiency program of the country. Design of infrastructure, particularly of dams, will need to be re-visited to ensure that these will not be severely affected by the projected longer drier periods.

In areas where rainfall could be intense during wet periods, flooding events would follow and may pose danger to human settlements and infrastructure, in terms of landslides and mudslides, most especially, in geologically weak areas. Additionally, these flooding events could impact severely on public infrastructure, such as roads and bridges, including classrooms, evacuation centers, and hospitals.

Adaptive capacity is enhanced when impact and vulnerability assessments are used as the basis of strategic and long-term planning for adaptation. Assessments would indicate areas where critical water shortages can be expected leading to possible reduction of water available for domestic consumption, less irrigation service delivery, and possibly, decreased energy generation in dams. Note that the adverse impacts would cascade, so that long-term pro-active planning for these possible impacts is imperative in order to be able to respond effectively, and avoid maladaptations. A number of adaptation strategies should be considered. Among the wide array of cost effective options are rational water management, planning to avoid mismatch between water supply and demand through policies, upgrading/rehabilitation of dams where these are cost-effective, changes in cropping patterns in agricultural areas, establishing rain water collection facilities, where possible, and early warning systems.

Changes in rainfall regimes and patterns resulting to increase/decrease in water use and temperature increases could lead to a change in the forests ecosystem, particularly in areas where the rains are severely limited, and can no longer provide favorable conditions for certain highly sensitive species. Some of our forests could face die-backs. Additionally, drier periods and warmer temperatures, especially during the warm phase of El Nino events, could cause forest fires. A very likely threat to communities that largely depend on the ecological services provided by forests is that they may face the need to alter their traditions and livelihoods. This change in practices and behavior can lead to further degradation of the environment as they resort to more extensive agricultural production in already degraded areas.

Adverse impacts on forestry areas and resources could be expected to multiply in a future warmer world. The value of impact and vulnerability assessments could not be underscored. These assessments would help decision makers and stakeholders identify the best option to address the different impacts on forest areas, watersheds and agroforestry. Indigenous communities have to plan for climate-resilient alternative livelihoods. Thus, it is highly important to plan for rational forest management, particularly, in protected areas and in ancestral domains. One of the more important issues to consider is how to safeguard livelihoods in affected communities so as not to further exacerbate land degradation. Early warning systems in this sector will play a very important role in forest protection through avoidance and control/containment of forest fires.

Agriculture

Agriculture in the country could be severely affected by temperature changes coupled with changes in rain regimes and patterns. Crops have been shown to suffer decreases in yields whenever temperatures have exceeded threshold values and possibly result to spikelet sterility, as in the case of rice. The reduction in crop yield would remain unmitigated or even aggravated if management technologies are not put in place. Additionally, in areas where rain patterns change or when extreme events such as floods or droughts happen more often, grain and other agricultural produce could suffer shortfalls in the absence of effective and timely interventions. Tropical cyclones, particularly if there will be an increase in numbers and/or strength will continue to exert pressure on agricultural production.

Moreover, temperature increases coupled with rainfall changes could affect the incidence/outbreaks of pests and diseases, both in plants and animals. The pathways through which diseases and pests could be triggered and rendered most favorable to spread are still largely unknown. It is therefore important that research focus on these issues.

In the fisheries sub-sector, migration of fish to cooler and deeper waters would force the fisher folks to travel further from the coasts in order to increase their catch. Seaweed production, already being practiced as an adaptation to climate change in a number of poor and depressed coastal communities could also be impacted adversely.

Decreased yields and inadequate job opportunities in the agricultural sector could lead to migration and shifts in population, resulting to more pressure in already depressed urban areas, particularly in mega cities. Food security will largely be affected, especially if timely, effective and efficient interventions are not put in place. Insufficient food supply could further lead to more malnutrition, higher poverty levels, and possibly, heightened social unrest and conflict in certain areas in the country, and even among the indigenous tribes.

A careful assessment of primary and secondary impacts in this sector, particularly, in production systems and livelihoods will go a long way in avoiding food security and livelihood issues. Proactive planning (short- and long-term adaptation measures) will help in attaining poverty eradication, sufficient nutrition and secure livelihoods goals. There is a wide cross-section of adaptation strategies that could be put in place, such as horizontal and vertical diversification of crops, farmer field schools which incorporate use of weather/climate information in agricultural operations, including policy environment for subsidies and climate-friendly agricultural technologies, weather-based insurance, and others. To date, there has not been much R&D that has been done on inland and marine fisheries technologies, a research agenda on resilient marine sector could form part of long-term planning for this subsector.

Coastal Resources

The countrys coastal resources are highly vulnerable due to its extensive coastlines. Sea level rise is highly likely in a changing climate, and low-lying islands will face permanent inundation in the future. The combined effects of continued temperature increases, changes in rainfall and accelerated sea level rise, and tropical cyclone occurrences including the associated storm surges would expose coastal communities to higher levels of threat to life and property. The livelihood of these communities would also be threatened in terms of further stress to their fishing opportunities, loss of productive agricultural lands and saltwater intrusion, among others.

Impact and vulnerability assessment as well as adaptation planning for these coastal areas are of high priority. Adaptation measures range from physical structures such as sea walls where they still are cost-effective, to development/revision of land use plans using risk maps as the basis, to early warning systems for severe weather, including advisories on storm surge probabilities, as well as planning for and developing resilient livelihoods where traditional fishing/ agriculture are no longer viable.

Human health is one of the most vital sectors which will be severely affected by climate change. Incremental increases in temperatures and rain regimes could trigger a number of adverse impacts; in particular, the outbreak and spread of water-based and vector-borne diseases leading to higher morbidity and mortality; increased incidence of pulmonary illnesses among young children and cardiovascular diseases among the elderly. In addition, there could also be increased health risk from poor air quality especially in urbanized areas.

Surveillance systems and infrastructure for monitoring and prevention of epidemics could also be under severe stress when there is a confluence of circumstances. Hospitals and clinics, and evacuation centers and resettlement areas could also be severely affected under increased frequency and intensity of severe weather events.

Moreover, malnutrition is expected to become more severe with more frequent occurrences of extreme events that disrupt food supply and provision of health services. The services of the Department of Health will be severely tested unless early and periodic assessments of plausible impacts of climate change are undertaken.

Scientific assessments have indicated that the Earth is now committed to continued and faster warming unless drastic global mitigation action is put in place the soonest. The likely impacts of climate change are numerous and most could seriously hinder the realization of targets set under the Millennium Development Goals; and thus, sustainable development. Under the UNFCCC, Country Parties have common but differentiated responsibilities. All Country Parties share the common responsibility of protecting the climate system but must shoulder different responsibilities. This means that the developed countries including those whose economies are in transition (or the so-called Annex 1 Parties) have an obligation to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions based on their emissions at 1990 levels and provide assistance to developing countries (or the so-called non-Annex 1 Parties) to adapt to impacts of climate change.

In addition, the commitment to mitigate or reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by countries which share the responsibility of having historically caused this global problem, as agreed upon in the Kyoto Protocol, is dictated by the imperative to avoid what climate scientists refer to as the climate change tipping point. Tipping point is defined as the maximum temperature increase that could happen within the century, which could lead to sudden and dramatic changes to some of the major geophysical elements of the Earth. The effects of these changes could be varied from a dramatic rise in sea levels that could flood coastal regions to widespread crop failures. But, it still is possible to avoid them with cuts in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, both in the developed and developing countries, in particular, those which are now fast approaching the emission levels seen in rich countries.

In the Philippines, there are now a number of assisted climate change adaptation programmes and projects that are being implemented. Among these are the Millennium Development Goals Fund 1656: Strengthening the Philippines Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change funded by the Government of Spain, the Philippine Climate Change Adaptation Project (which aims to develop the resiliency and test adaptation strategies that will develop the resiliency of farms and natural resource management to the effects of climate change) funded by the Global Environmental Facility(GEF) through the World Bank, the Adaptation to Climate Change and Conservation of Biodiversity Project and the National Framework Strategy on Climate Change (envisioned to develop the adaptation capacity of communities), both funded by the GTZ, Germany.

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