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How the Pandemic Changed Marketing Channels

• Christine Moorman,
• Michelle Seals

A new survey of more than 300 marketing leaders identified five key trends.

The pandemic undoubtedly changed how marketers approach channel strategy, and there is no single route to success. With more channels than ever, marketers need to map which channels add clear value and forget the rest. It can be tempting to enter a channel because your competitors are there. But with limited customer time and attention, marketers must strategically determine in which channels they can have the greatest impact. The authors look at five post-pandemic channel strategies gleaned from The CMO Survey and offer analysis on how marketers can operationalize these trends.

The Covid-19 pandemic pushed companies to quickly adapt and respond to new customer requirements. One of the ways this dynamic was most apparent was in the marketing channels companies adopted to engage with and sell to customers.

• Christine Moorman is the T. Austin Finch, Sr. Professor of Business Administration, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University. She is founder and director of The CMO Survey .
• Jana Soli is an MBA candidate at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business (Class of 2023). She is a Research Fellow for The CMO Survey .
• Michelle Seals is an MBA candidate at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business (Class of 2024). She is a Research Fellow for The CMO Survey .

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News Stay in tuned with the research analytics and keep up with the market with our latest News. Here is what’s been making the news.

Russia Hub to Elevate China’s Vehicles Sale

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Study finds workers misjudge wage markets

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Many employees believe their counterparts at other firms make less in salary than is actually the case — an assumption that costs them money, according to a study co-authored by MIT scholars.

“Workers wrongly anchor their beliefs about outside options on their current wage,” says MIT economist Simon Jäger, co-author of a newly published paper detailing the study’s results.

As a top-line figure, the study indicates that workers who would experience a 10 percent wage increase by switching firms only expect a 1 percent wage increase instead, leading them to earn less than they otherwise might.

That is one of multiple related findings in the study, which also shows that workers in lower-paying firms are highly susceptible to underestimating wages at other companies; and that giving workers correct information about the salary structure in their industry makes them more likely to declare that they intend to leave their current jobs.

The study also has implications for further economics research, since economists’ job-search models generally assume workers have accurate salary information about their industries. The study was performed using data from Germany, although it quite likely applies to other countries as well.

“Misperceptions about outside options have substantial consequences on wages,” says Nina Roussille, an economist at MIT and also a co-author of the paper. “The intuition is simple: If low-wage workers do not know that they could make more elsewhere, then these workers stay put in low-wage firms. In turn, these low-wage firms do not feel the competitive pressure from the external labor market to raise their wages.”

The paper, “ Worker Beliefs about Outside Options ,” appears in advance online form in the Quarterly Journal of Economics . The authors are Jäger, the Silverman Family Career Development Associate Professor in MIT’s Department of Economics; Christopher Roth, a professor of economics at the University of Cologne; Roussille, an assistant professor in MIT’s Department of Economics; and Benjamin Schoefer, an associate professor of economics at the University of California at Berkeley.

Updating beliefs

To conduct the study, the researchers incorporated a survey module into the Innovation Sample of the German Socio-Economic Panel, an annual survey of a representative sample of the German population. They used their survey questions to find out the nature of worker beliefs about outside employment opportunities. The scholars then linked these findings to actual job and salary data collected from the German government’s Institute for Employment Research (IAB), with the prior consent of 558 survey respondents.

Linking those two data sources allowed the scholars to quantify the mismatch between what workers believe about industry-wide salaries, and what wages are in reality. One good piece of evidence on the compression of those beliefs is that about 56 percent of respondents believe they have a salary in between the 40 th and 60 th percentiles among comparable workers.

The scholars then added another element to the research project. They conducted an online experiment with 2,448 participants, giving these workers correct information about salaries at other companies, and then measuring the employees’ intention to find other job opportunities, among other things.

By adding this layer to the study, the scholars found that a 10 percentage point increase in the belief about salaries at other firms leads to a 2.6 percentage point increase in a worker intending to leave their present firm.

“This updating of beliefs causes workers to adjust their job search and wage negotiation intentions,” Roussille observes.

While the exact circumstances in every job market may vary somewhat, the researchers think the basic research findings from Germany could well apply in many other places.

“We are confident the results are representative of the German labor market,” Jäger says. “Of course, the German labor market may differ from, say, the U.S. labor market. Our intuition, though, is that, if anything, misperceptions would be even more consequential in a country like the U.S. where wages are more unequal than in Europe.”

Moreover, he adds, the recent dynamics of the U.S. job market during the Covid-19 pandemic, when many workers searched for new work and ended up in higher-paying jobs, is “consistent with the idea that workers had been stuck in low-paying jobs for a long time without realizing that there may have been better opportunities elsewhere.”

Data informing theory

The findings of Jäger, Roth, Roussille, Schoefer stand in contrast to established economic theory in this area, which has often worked from the expectation that employees have an accurate perception of industry wages and make decisions on that basis.

Roussille says the feedback the scholars have received from economics colleagues has been favorable, since other economists perceive “an opportunity to better tailor our models to reality,” as she puts it. “This follows a broader trend in economics in the past 20 to 30 years: The combination of better data collection and access with greater computing power has allowed the field to challenge longstanding but untested assumptions, learn from new empirical evidence, and build more realistic models.”

The findings have also encouraged the scholars to explore the topic further, especially by examining what the state of industry-wide wage knowledge is among employers.

“One natural follow-up to this project would be to better understand the firm side,” Jäger says. “Are firms aware of these misperceptions? Do they also hold inaccurate beliefs about the wages at their competitors?”

To this end, the researchers have already conducted a survey of managers on this topic, and intend to pursue further related work.

Support for the research was provided, in part, by the Sloan Foundation’s Working Longer Program; the Stiftung Grundeinkommen (Basic Income Foundation); and the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Foundation) under Germany’s Excellence Strategy.

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The stock market is likely headed for a correction, but it won't be the start of a bear market, research firm says

• Ned Davis Research said soaring stock market optimism makes a correction look likely.
• Major stock indexes are hitting record highs, and that's created a "sugar high" among investors.
• Still, NDR said the conditions for a bear market won't be in place even if a correction hits.

Widespread investor optimism has fueled record after record across global stock markets this year, and Ned Davis Research forecasts a correction could be looming even as conditions for a bear market remain insufficient. 

In a recent note, Tim Hayes, the firm's chief global strategist, explained that wider market breadth has made new highs the new normal rather than the exception. While burgeoning enthusiasm isn't necessarily negative, the longer it lasts, the more markets are vulnerable to earnings let-downs and a potential correction. 

To that point, major indexes across the US, Japan, France, Australia, Taiwan, and others have all soared this year. For the first time in roughly three years, nearly a third of the 47 All Country World Index markets are within 5% of record highs, according to NDR. 

"The abundance of new highs has produced a sugar high among investors as paper profits have accumulated," Hayes wrote.

He pointed to the DSI Global Sentiment Composite, depicted below, which touched 84% to start the month of March — the highest level in nearly a year.

The equal-weighted ACWI is hovering at its highest level since early 2022. In addition, the share of MSCI World Index stocks within 5% of records has reached similar levels. 

When the excessive optimism wanes and the sentiment composite dips into neutral mode from a level above 70%, Hayes said, the MSCI ACWI tends to decline. 

"[W]ith the one-year and four-year cycles becoming less favorable, a correction can be expected," Hayes wrote.

In NDR's view, 2024 should see one or more corrections, though any moves lower are unlikely to be as severe as the declines of 2020 or 2022, which were driven by recession, inflation, and interest rate concerns.

"We don't expect a bear market any time soon," Hayes maintained. "The macro outlook lacks sufficient evidence to expect the return of crippling inflationary pressures or enough economic weakness to make a global recession an increased probability."

Indeed, it was only a year ago that the Wall Street consensus was for an economic and market downturn . With inflation broadly cooling over recent months and AI hype powering the stock market , many forecasters at the top banks have since pivoted toward soft-landing and bull-market outlooks.

• Main content

The mortgage 'lock-in' effect is here to stay and home prices won't fall for years to come, research firm says

• Easing mortgage rates won't fully unwind the "lock in" effect, Capital Economics said.
• Home moves and market activity will remain muted even if borrowing costs become more attractive.
• Rising buyer demand and low inventory will drive prices 5% higher this year, the firm said. 

The frozen US housing market may not fully thaw for years to come, according to Capital Economics. 

Since the pandemic housing boom, a combination of near-7% mortgage rates, low inventory, and high home prices has created a "lock-in" effect, making current homeowners unwilling to move because it would require taking on a new, higher mortgage rate. That in turn keeps many buyers and sellers from participating in the market. 

In a note Tuesday, the firm said easing mortgage rates won't be enough to spark a meaningful uptick in homebuying activity, and that there's no end in sight for rising home prices.

Related stories

"Even if mortgage rates fall to 6% as we expect, mortgage rate 'lock in' will continue to curb home moves," Capital Economics strategists said. "As a result, we only anticipate a trickle of new resale supply coming onto the market over the next few years."

Capital Economics forecasts a 5% rise in house prices this year, higher than the consensus 3% jump. In the research group's view, housing market activity will remain muted as competition for homes stays tight and affordability remains historically low.

The strategists expect mortgage rates, too, will continue to trend above pre-pandemic levels. Easing Fed interest rates and reduced market uncertainty could help bring mortgage rates to 6.5% by the end of 2024, and 6.0% by the end of 2024.

That said, Capital Economics doesn't expect dramatic changes as far as how much it costs Americans to afford monthly home payments.

Mortgage payments as a share of income hovers at 25.7% currently, and the strategists said that could fall to 23.1% by the end of next year, as illustrated in the chart below.

"The bigger picture is that the market will remain practically frozen," the Capital Economics team said. "The biggest constraint on activity in recent years has been the lack of available homes for sale due to mortgage rate 'lock-in.' We don't expect that to change much."

Watch: One in every 10 Americans moved during the pandemic. Here's where they went.

• Main content

Rosatom Starts Production of Rare-Earth Magnets for Wind Power Generation

TVEL Fuel Company of Rosatom has started gradual localization of rare-earth magnets manufacturing for wind power plants generators. The first sets of magnets have been manufactured and shipped to the customer.

In total, the contract between Elemash Magnit LLC (an enterprise of TVEL Fuel Company of Rosatom in Elektrostal, Moscow region) and Red Wind B.V. (a joint venture of NovaWind JSC and the Dutch company Lagerwey) foresees manufacturing and supply over 200 sets of magnets. One set is designed to produce one power generator.

“The project includes gradual localization of magnets manufacturing in Russia, decreasing dependence on imports. We consider production of magnets as a promising sector for TVEL’s metallurgical business development. In this regard, our company does have the relevant research and technological expertise for creation of Russia’s first large-scale full cycle production of permanent rare-earth magnets,” commented Natalia Nikipelova, President of TVEL JSC.

“NovaWind, as the nuclear industry integrator for wind power projects, not only made-up an efficient supply chain, but also contributed to the development of inter-divisional cooperation and new expertise of Rosatom enterprises. TVEL has mastered a unique technology for the production of magnets for wind turbine generators. These technologies will be undoubtedly in demand in other areas as well,” noted Alexander Korchagin, Director General of NovaWind JSC.

For reference:

TVEL Fuel Company of Rosatom incorporates enterprises for the fabrication of nuclear fuel, conversion and enrichment of uranium, production of gas centrifuges, as well as research and design organizations. It is the only supplier of nuclear fuel for Russian nuclear power plants. TVEL Fuel Company of Rosatom provides nuclear fuel for 73 power reactors in 13 countries worldwide, research reactors in eight countries, as well as transport reactors of the Russian nuclear fleet. Every sixth power reactor in the world operates on fuel manufactured by TVEL. www.tvel.ru

NovaWind JSC is a division of Rosatom; its primary objective is to consolidate the State Corporation's efforts in advanced segments and technological platforms of the electric power sector. The company was founded in 2017. NovaWind consolidates all of the Rosatom’s wind energy assets – from design and construction to power engineering and operation of wind farms.

Overall, by 2023, enterprises operating under the management of NovaWind JSC, will install 1 GW of wind farms. http://novawind.ru

Elemash Magnit LLC is a subsidiary of Kovrov Mechanical Plant (an enterprise of the TVEL Fuel Company of Rosatom) and its main supplier of magnets for production of gas centrifuges. The company also produces magnets for other industries, in particular, for the automotive

industry. The production facilities of Elemash Magnit LLC are located in the city of Elektrostal, Moscow Region, at the site of Elemash Machine-Building Plant (a nuclear fuel fabrication facility of TVEL Fuel Company).

Rosatom is a global actor on the world’s nuclear technology market. Its leading edge stems from a number of competitive strengths, one of which is assets and competences at hand in all nuclear segments. Rosatom incorporates companies from all stages of the technological chain, such as uranium mining and enrichment, nuclear fuel fabrication, equipment manufacture and engineering, operation of nuclear power plants, and management of spent nuclear fuel and nuclear waste. Nowadays, Rosatom brings together about 350 enterprises and organizations with the workforce above 250 K. https://rosatom.ru/en/

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— Igor Volk, a Soviet-era cosmonaut whose only spaceflight in 1984 was intended to prepare him to fly Russia's space shuttle Buran before it was canceled, died on Tuesday (Jan. 3). He was 79. Volk's death was reported on the website for the Russian city of Zhukovsky, where the cosmonaut was an honorary citizen. "[Volk] was a representative of the legendary generation of cosmonauts," the city officials wrote on Zhukovskiy.ru . "He will remain in our memory as an outstanding personality, an extraordinary man and a highly skilled, courageous test cosmonaut, who made a contributions to the exploration of outer space and to the knowledge of the mysteries of the universe." Roscosmos, Russia's federal space corporation, confirmed Volk's death in a post to its Facebook page.

Selected in July 1977 among the first group of civilian test pilots for the Buran, the Soviet Union's answer to the U.S. space shuttle, Volk passed basic cosmonaut training and qualified for a spaceflight assignment in 1980. Volk might have then waited for a mission on board the winged orbiter — a flight that would ultimately never come — were it not for an aborted space station docking three years earlier. In the wake of a two-man, all-rookie Soyuz crew failing to dock to the Salyut 6 station, a new rule was instituted by the Soviet space program that every crew had to include at least one person who had previously flown into space. As such, Volk was initially named to fly with Leonid Kizim and Vladimir Solovyov to the Salyut 7 space station in 1983, to provide him the experience needed to lead the first flight of the Buran. Another failed docking mission however, resulted in Kizim and Solovyov being reassigned to a later launch and Volk being added to the Soyuz T-12 mission crew with Vladimir Dzhanibekov and Svetlana Savitskaya, the latter being the world's second woman to fly into space making her second spaceflight. Volk, Dzhanibekov and Savitskaya launched on July 17, 1984 from Russia's Baikonur Cosmodrome (now located in Kazakhstan). During the Soyuz T-12 mission, the seventh crewed flight to visit Salyut 7, Savitskaya became the first woman to go out on a spacewalk, beating NASA astronaut Kathy Sullivan by three months.

Volk returned to Earth with his two crewmates on July 29, 1984, logging a total of 11 days, 19 hours and 14 minutes in space. Soon after he landed, Volk boarded a Tu-154LL Buran training aircraft and flew an approach following the same flight path the orbiter would on its return from space, touching down at Zhukovsky Air Base near Moscow. The flight demonstrated that a cosmonaut still readjusting to gravity could safely fly the shuttle to a landing, though Volk, nor any other cosmonaut, would have the opportunity to conduct that real re-entry from space. Igor Petrovich Volk was born in Kharkiv, now the second- largest city in Ukraine, on April 12, 1937, 24 years to the day before cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin would become the first human to fly into space and 44 years to the day before the first launch of NASA's space shuttle. A pilot in the Soviet Air Force and graduate of Kirovograd Military Aviation School in 1956, Volk received his degree in engineering from the Moscow Aviation Institute in 1969. He then went to work as a civilian test pilot at the Gromov Flight Research Institute, flying jets, including the MiG-21, MiG-25 and Su-27, as well as a single flight in the "Lapot," an atmospheric test vehicle for the never-realized MiG-105 "Spiral" space plane. After his Soyuz T-12 mission, Volk continued to prepare for a Buran mission by piloting 13 flights of the analog version of the shuttle, the OK-GLI, between November 1985 and April 1988. His last approach and landing flight marked the 25th and last flight for the vehicle, which is now on display at the Technik Museum Speyer in Germany.

The Buran only launched to space once, without a crew, in 1988, before the program was canceled in 1993. "Energiya-Buran is the most powerful space vehicle the world has ever seen, and, had it been given the chance to fully develop, it would have been of great benefit to the people of the Soviet Union and, indeed, the world," Volk wrote in his foreword to the 2007 book "Energiya-Buran" by Bart Hendrickx and Bert Vis. "It didn't get that chance, but the political, and to some extent, economical situation, were not ideal." In 1995, Volk left the cosmonaut corps to become director of the flight test center at the MM Gromov Flight Research Institute in Zhukovsky, a position he held until he retired in 2002. For his service to the country's space program, Volk was awarded the title of Hero of the Soviet Union and the Order of Lenin in June 1984. Volk is survived by his wife, Valentina, and two daughters, Marina and Irina.

Suit Up: 50 Years of Spacewalks

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