financial projections of a business plan

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• Building Your Business

How To Create Financial Projections for Your Business

Learn how to anticipate your business’s financial performance

• Understanding Financial Projections & Forecasting

Why Forecasting Is Critical for Your Business

Key financial statements for forecasting, how to create your financial projections, frequently asked questions (faqs).

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Just like a weather forecast lets you know that wearing closed-toe shoes will be important for that afternoon downpour later, a good financial forecast allows you to better anticipate financial highs and lows for your business.

Neglecting to compile financial projections for your business may signal to investors that you’re unprepared for the future, which may cause you to lose out on funding opportunities.

Read on to learn more about financial projections, how to compile and use them in a business plan, and why they can be crucial for every business owner.

Key Takeaways

• Financial forecasting is a projection of your business's future revenues and expenses based on comparative data analysis, industry research, and more.
• Financial projections are a valuable tool for entrepreneurs as they offer insight into a business's ability to generate profit, increase cash flow, and repay debts, which can be attractive to investors.
• Some of the key components to include in a financial projection include a sales projection, break-even analysis, and pro forma balance sheet and income statement.
• A financial projection can not only attract investors, but helps business owners anticipate fixed costs, find a break-even point, and prepare for the unexpected.

Understanding Financial Projections and Forecasting

Financial forecasting is an educated estimate of future revenues and expenses that involves comparative analysis to get a snapshot of what could happen in your business’s future.

This process helps in making predictions about future business performance based on current financial information, industry trends, and economic conditions. Financial forecasting also helps businesses make decisions about investments, financing sources, inventory management, cost control strategies, and even whether to move into another market.

Developing both short- and mid-term projections is usually necessary to help you determine immediate production and personnel needs as well as future resource requirements for raw materials, equipment, and machinery.

Financial projections are a valuable tool for entrepreneurs as they offer insight into a business's ability to generate profit, increase cash flow, and repay debts. They can also be used to make informed decisions about the business’s plans. Creating an accurate, adaptive financial projection for your business offers many benefits, including:

• Attracting investors and convincing them to fund your business
• Anticipating problems before they arise
• Visualizing your small-business objectives and budgets
• Demonstrating how you will repay small-business loans
• Planning for more significant business expenses
• Showing business growth potential
• Helping with proper pricing and production planning

Financial forecasting is essentially predicting the revenue and expenses for a business venture. Whether your business is new or established, forecasting can play a vital role in helping you plan for the future and budget your funds.

Creating financial projections may be a necessary exercise for many businesses, particularly those that do not have sufficient cash flow or need to rely on customer credit to maintain operations. Compiling financial information, knowing your market, and understanding what your potential investors are looking for can enable you to make intelligent decisions about your assets and resources.

The income statement, balance sheet, and statement of cash flow are three key financial reports needed for forecasting that can also provide analysts with crucial information about a business's financial health. Here is a closer look at each.

Income Statement

An income statement, also known as a profit and loss statement or P&L, is a financial document that provides an overview of an organization's revenues, expenses, and net income.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a snapshot of the business's assets and liabilities at a certain point in time. Sometimes referred to as the “financial portrait” of a business, the balance sheet provides an overview of how much money the business has, what it owes, and its net worth.

The assets side of the balance sheet includes what the business owns as well as future ownership items. The other side of the sheet includes liabilities and equity, which represent what it owes or what others owe to the business.

A balance sheet that shows hypothetical calculations and future financial projections is also referred to as a “pro forma” balance sheet.

Cash Flow Statement

A cash flow statement monitors the business’s inflows and outflows—both cash and non-cash. Cash flow is the business’s projected earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization ( EBITDA ) minus capital investments.

Here's how to compile your financial projections and fit the results into the three above statements.

A financial projections spreadsheet for your business should include these metrics and figures:

• Sales forecast
• Balance sheet
• Operating expenses
• Payroll expenses (if applicable)
• Amortization and depreciation
• Cash flow statement
• Income statement
• Cost of goods sold (COGS)
• Break-even analysis

Here are key steps to account for creating your financial projections.

Projecting Sales

The first step for a financial forecast starts with projecting your business’s sales, which are typically derived from past revenue as well as industry research. These projections allow businesses to understand what their risks are and how much they will need in terms of staffing, resources, and funding.

Sales forecasts also enable businesses to decide on important levels such as product variety, price points, and inventory capacity.

Income Statement Calculations

A projected income statement shows how much you expect in revenue and profit—as well as your estimated expenses and losses—over a specific time in the future. Like a standard income statement, elements on a projection include revenue, COGS, and expenses that you’ll calculate to determine figures such as the business’s gross profit margin and net income.

If you’re developing a hypothetical, or pro forma, income statement, you can use historical data from previous years’ income statements. You can also do a comparative analysis of two different income statement periods to come up with your figures.

Anticipate Fixed Costs

Fixed business costs are expenses that do not change based on the number of products sold. The best way to anticipate fixed business costs is to research your industry and prepare a budget using actual numbers from competitors in the industry. Anticipating fixed costs ensures your business doesn’t overpay for its needs and balances out its variable costs. A few examples of fixed business costs include:

• Rent or mortgage payments
• Operating expenses (also called selling, general and administrative expenses or SG&A)
• Utility bills
• Insurance premiums

Unfortunately, it might not be possible to predict accurately how much your fixed costs will change in a year due to variables such as inflation, property, and interest rates. It’s best to slightly overestimate fixed costs just in case you need to account for these potential fluctuations.

Find Your Break-Even Point

The break-even point (BEP) is the number at which a business has the same expenses as its revenue. In other words, it occurs when your operations generate enough revenue to cover all of your business’s costs and expenses. The BEP will differ depending on the type of business, market conditions, and other factors.

To find this number, you need to determine two things: your fixed costs and variable costs. Once you have these figures, you can find your BEP using this formula:

Break-even point = fixed expenses ➗ 1 – (variable expenses ➗ sales)

The BEP is an essential consideration for any projection because it is the point at which total revenue from a project equals total cost. This makes it the point of either profit or loss.

Plan for the Unexpected

It is necessary to have the proper financial safeguards in place to prepare for any unanticipated costs. A sudden vehicle repair, a leaky roof, or broken equipment can quickly derail your budget if you aren't prepared. Cash management is a financial management plan that ensures a business has enough cash on hand to maintain operations and meet short-term obligations.

To maintain cash reserves, you can apply for overdraft protection or an overdraft line of credit. Overdraft protection can be set up by a bank or credit card business and provides short-term loans if the account balance falls below zero. On the other hand, a line of credit is an agreement with a lending institution in which they provide you with an unsecured loan at any time until your balance reaches zero again.

How do you make financial projections for startups?

Financial projections for startups can be hard to complete. Historical financial data may not be available. Find someone with financial projections experience to give insight on risks and outcomes.

Consider business forecasting, too, which incorporates assumptions about the exponential growth of your business.

Startups can also benefit from using EBITDA to get a better look at potential cash flow.

What are the benefits associated with forecasting business finances?

Forecasting can be beneficial for businesses in many ways, including:

• Providing better understanding of your business cash flow
• Easing the process of planning and budgeting for the future based on income
• Improving decision-making
• Providing valuable insight into what's in their future
• Making decisions on how to best allocate resources for success

How many years should your financial forecast be?

Your financial forecast should either be projected over a specific time period or projected into perpetuity. There are various methods for determining how long a financial forecasting projection should go out, but many businesses use one to five years as a standard timeframe.

U.S. Small Business Administration. " Market Research and Competitive Analysis ."

Score. " Financial Projections Template ."

Business Plan Financial Projections

• Written By Dave Lavinsky

Financial projections are an important part of your business plan. The projections give investors and lenders an idea of how well your business is likely to do in the future. Financial projections include both income statements and balance sheets.

Financial projections are important for a number of reasons. First, they give investors and lenders an idea of how well your business is likely to do in the future. This can help you secure the funding you need to get your business off the ground. Financial projections also help you track your progress over time. You can use them to make sure your business is on track to meet its goals. Finally, financial projections can help you spot potential problems early on, so you can take corrective action.

What Are Business Plan Financial Projections?

Financial projections are an estimate of your company’s future financial performance through financial forecasting. They are typically used by businesses to secure funding, but can also be useful for internal decision-making and planning purposes. There are three main financial statements that you will need to include in your business plan financial projections:

1. Income Statement Projection

The income statement projection is a forecast of your company’s future revenues and expenses. It should include line items for each type of income and expense, as well as a total at the end.

There are a few key items you will need to include in your projection:

• Revenue: Your revenue projection should break down your expected sales by product or service, as well as by month. It is important to be realistic in your projections, so make sure to account for any seasonal variations in your business.
• Expenses: Your expense projection should include a breakdown of your expected costs by category, such as marketing, salaries, and rent. Again, it is important to be realistic in your estimates.
• Net Income: The net income projection is the difference between your revenue and expenses. This number tells you how much profit your company is expected to make.

Sample Income Statement

2. cash flow statement & projection.

The cash flow statement and projection are a forecast of your company’s future cash inflows and outflows. It is important to include a cash flow projection in your business plan, as it will give investors and lenders an idea of your company’s ability to generate cash.

There are a few key items you will need to include in your cash flow projection:

• The cash flow statement shows a breakdown of your expected cash inflows and outflows by month. It is important to be realistic in your projections, so make sure to account for any seasonal variations in your business.
• Cash inflows should include items such as sales revenue, interest income, and capital gains. Cash outflows should include items such as salaries, rent, and marketing expenses.
• It is important to track your company’s cash flow over time to ensure that it is healthy. A healthy cash flow is necessary for a successful business.

Sample Cash Flow Statements

3. balance sheet projection.

The balance sheet projection is a forecast of your company’s future financial position. It should include line items for each type of asset and liability, as well as a total at the end.

A projection should include a breakdown of your company’s assets and liabilities by category. It is important to be realistic in your projections, so make sure to account for any seasonal variations in your business.

It is important to track your company’s financial position over time to ensure that it is healthy. A healthy balance is necessary for a successful business.

Sample Balance Sheet

How to create financial projections.

Creating financial projections for your business plan can be a daunting task, but it’s important to put together accurate and realistic financial projections in order to give your business the best chance for success.  

Cost Assumptions

When you create financial projections, it is important to be realistic about the costs your business will incur, using historical financial data can help with this. You will need to make assumptions about the cost of goods sold, operational costs, and capital expenditures.

It is important to track your company’s expenses over time to ensure that it is staying within its budget. A healthy bottom line is necessary for a successful business.

Capital Expenditures, Funding, Tax, and Balance Sheet Items

You will also need to make assumptions about capital expenditures, funding, tax, and balance sheet items. These assumptions will help you to create a realistic financial picture of your business.

Capital Expenditures

When projecting your company’s capital expenditures, you will need to make a number of assumptions about the type of equipment or property your business will purchase. You will also need to estimate the cost of the purchase.

When projecting your company’s funding needs, you will need to make a number of assumptions about where the money will come from. This might include assumptions about bank loans, venture capital, or angel investors.

When projecting your company’s tax liability, you will need to make a number of assumptions about the tax rates that will apply to your business. You will also need to estimate the amount of taxes your company will owe.

Balance Sheet Items

When projecting your company’s balance, you will need to make a number of assumptions about the type and amount of debt your business will have. You will also need to estimate the value of your company’s assets and liabilities.

Financial Projection Scenarios

Write two financial scenarios when creating your financial projections, a best-case scenario, and a worst-case scenario. Use your list of assumptions to come up with realistic numbers for each scenario.

Presuming that you have already generated a list of assumptions, the creation of best and worst-case scenarios should be relatively simple. For each assumption, generate a high and low estimate. For example, if you are assuming that your company will have $100,000 in revenue, your high estimate might be $120,000 and your low estimate might be $80,000.

Once you have generated high and low estimates for all of your assumptions, you can create two scenarios: a best case scenario and a worst-case scenario. Simply plug the high estimates into your financial projections for the best-case scenario and the low estimates into your financial projections for the worst-case scenario.

Conduct a Ratio Analysis

A ratio analysis is a useful tool that can be used to evaluate a company’s financial health. Ratios can be used to compare a company’s performance to its industry average or to its own historical performance.

There are a number of different ratios that can be used in ratio analysis. Some of the more popular ones include the following:

• Gross margin ratio
• Operating margin ratio
• Return on assets (ROA)
• Return on equity (ROE)

To conduct a ratio analysis, you will need financial statements for your company and for its competitors. You will also need industry average ratios. These can be found in industry reports or on financial websites.

Once you have the necessary information, you can calculate the ratios for your company and compare them to the industry averages or to your own historical performance. If your company’s ratios are significantly different from the industry averages, it might be indicative of a problem.

Be Realistic

When creating your financial projections, it is important to be realistic. Your projections should be based on your list of assumptions and should reflect your best estimate of what your company’s future financial performance will be. This includes projected operating income, a projected income statement, and a profit and loss statement.

Your goal should be to create a realistic set of financial projections that can be used to guide your company’s future decision-making.

Sales Forecast

One of the most important aspects of your financial projections is your sales forecast. Your sales forecast should be based on your list of assumptions and should reflect your best estimate of what your company’s future sales will be.

Your sales forecast should be realistic and achievable. Do not try to “game” the system by creating an overly optimistic or pessimistic forecast. Your goal should be to create a realistic sales forecast that can be used to guide your company’s future decision-making.

Creating a sales forecast is not an exact science, but there are a number of methods that can be used to generate realistic estimates. Some common methods include market analysis, competitor analysis, and customer surveys.

Create Multi-Year Financial Projections

When creating financial projections, it is important to generate projections for multiple years. This will give you a better sense of how your company’s financial performance is likely to change over time.

It is also important to remember that your financial projections are just that: projections. They are based on a number of assumptions and are not guaranteed to be accurate. As such, you should review and update your projections on a regular basis to ensure that they remain relevant.

Creating financial projections is an important part of any business plan. However, it’s important to remember that these projections are just estimates. They are not guarantees of future success.

Business Plan Financial Projections FAQs

What is a business plan financial projection.

A business plan financial projection is a forecast of your company's future financial performance. It should include line items for each type of asset and liability, as well as a total at the end.

What are annual income statements? 

The Annual income statement is a financial document and a financial model that summarize a company's revenues and expenses over the course of a fiscal year. They provide a snapshot of a company's financial health and performance and can be used to track trends and make comparisons with other businesses.

What are the necessary financial statements?

The necessary financial statements for a business plan are an income statement, cash flow statement, and balance sheet.

How do I create financial projections?

You can create financial projections by making a list of assumptions, creating two scenarios (best case and worst case), conducting a ratio analysis, and being realistic.

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How to Create Financial Projections for Your Business

Written by Dave Lavinsky

As an entrepreneur, you spend months, even years coming up with ideas to start or grow your business. Then you write a business plan and try to convince someone (a co-founder, a banker, or an investor) that your idea is worthy of investment. The most crucial part of convincing them is your financial projections.

By creating financial projections, you have the opportunity to see the potential financial forecasting and impact of your ideas. Your financial projections (also known as your financial model) will help you understand the viability of your thoughts and help potential investors or lenders grasp the potential ROI (return on investment) of funding you.

This article will show you how to make financial projections for a startup business plan or an existing business. You will learn what to include in your financial projections, why they are essential, and how you can create them effectively.

Download our Ultimate Business Plan Template Here to Quickly & Easily Complete Your Business Plan & Financial Projections

What are Financial Projections?

Financial projections are forecasts or estimations of your company’s future revenues and expenses, serving as a crucial part of business planning. To complete them you must develop multiple assumptions with regards to items like future sales volumes, employee headcount and the cost of supplies and other expenses. Financial projections help you create better strategies to grow your business.

Your financial projections will be the most analyzed part of your business plan by investors and/or banks. While never a precise prediction of future performance, an excellent financial model outlines the core assumptions of your business and helps you and others evaluate capital requirements, risks involved, and rewards that successful execution will deliver.

Having a solid framework in place also will help you compare your performance to the financial projections and evaluate how your business is progressing. If your performance is behind your projections, you will have a framework in place to assess the effects of lowering costs, increasing prices, or even reimagining your model. In the happy case that you exceed your business projections, you can use your framework to plan for accelerated growth, new hires, or additional expansion investments.

Hence, the use of financial projections is multi-fold and crucial for the success of any business. Your financial projections should include three core financial statements – the income statement, the cash flow statement, and the balance sheet. The following section explains each statement in detail.

Necessary Financial Statements

The three financial statements are the income statement, the cash flow statement, and the balance sheet. You will learn how to create each one in detail below.  

Income Statement Projection

The projected income statement is also referred to as a profit and loss statement and showcases your business’s revenues and expenses for a specific period.

To create an income statement, you first will need to chart out a sales forecast by taking realistic estimates of units sold and multiplying them by price per unit to arrive at a total sales number. Then, estimate the cost of these units and multiply them by the number of units to get the cost of sales. Finally, calculate your gross margin by subtracting the cost of sales from your sales.

Once you have calculated your gross margin, deduct items like wages, rent, marketing costs, and other expenses that you plan to pay to facilitate your business’s operations. The resulting total represents your projected operating income, which is a critical business metric.

Plan to create an income statement monthly until your projected break-even, or the point at which future revenues outpace total expenses, and you reflect operating profit. From there, annual income statements will suffice.

Consider a sample income statement for a retail store below:

Cash Flow Projection

As the name indicates, a cash flow statement shows the cash flowing in and out of your business. The cash flow statement incorporates cash from business operations and includes cash inflows and outflows from investment and financing activities to deliver a holistic cash picture of your company.

Investment activities include purchasing land or equipment or research & development activities that aren’t necessarily part of daily operations. Cash movements due to financing activities include cash flowing in a business through investors and/or banks and cash flowing out due to debt repayment or distributions made to shareholders.

You should total all these three components of a cash flow projection for any specified period to arrive at a total ending cash balance. Constructing solid cash flow projections will ensure you anticipate capital needs to carry the business to a place of sustainable operations.

Below is a simple cash flow statement for the same retail store:

Balance Sheet Projection

A balance sheet shows your company’s assets, liabilities, and owner’s equity for a certain period and provides a snapshot in time of your business performance. Assets include things of value that the business owns, such as inventory, capital, and land. Liabilities, on the other hand, are legally bound commitments like payables for goods or services rendered and debt. Finally, owner’s equity refers to the amount that is remaining once liabilities are paid off. Assets must total – or balance – liabilities and equity.

Your startup financial documents should include annual balance sheets that show the changing balance of assets, liabilities, and equity as the business progresses. Ideally, that progression shows a reduction in liabilities and an increase in equity over time.

While constructing these varied business projections, remember to be flexible. You likely will need to go back and forth between the different financial statements since working on one will necessitate changes to the others.

Below is a simple balance sheet for the retail store:

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Creating Financial Projections

When it comes to financial forecasting, simplicity is key. Your financial projections do not have to be overly sophisticated and complicated to impress, and convoluted projections likely will have the opposite effect on potential investors. Keep your tables and graphs simple and fill them with credible data that inspires confidence in your plan and vision. The below tips will help bolster your financial projections.  

Create a List of Assumptions

Your financial projections should be tied to a list of assumptions. For example, one assumption will be the initial monthly cash sales you achieve. Another assumption will be your monthly growth rate. As you can imagine, changing either of these assumptions will significantly impact your financial projections.

As a result, tie your income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statements to your assumptions. That way, if you change your assumptions, all of your financial projections automatically update.

Below are the key assumptions to include in your financial model:

For EACH essential product or service you offer:

• What is the number of units you expect to sell each month?
• What is your expected monthly sales growth rate?
• What is the average price that you will charge per product or service unit sold?
• How much do you expect to raise your prices each year?
• How much does it cost you to produce or deliver each unit sold?
• How much (if at all) do you expect your direct product costs to grow each year?

For EACH subscription/membership, you offer:

• What is the monthly/quarterly/annual price of your membership?
• How many members do you have now, or how many members do you expect to gain in the first month/quarter/year?
• What is your projected monthly/quarterly/annual growth rate in the number of members?
• What is your projected monthly/quarterly/annual member churn (the percentage of members that will cancel each month/quarter/year)?
• What is the average monthly/quarterly/annual direct cost to serve each member (if applicable)?

Cost Assumptions

• What is your monthly salary? What is the annual growth rate in your salary?
• What is your monthly salary for the rest of your team? What is the expected annual growth rate in your team’s salaries?
• What is your initial monthly marketing expense? What is the expected annual growth rate in your marketing expense?
• What is your initial monthly rent + utility expense? What is the expected annual growth rate in your rent + utility expense?
• What is your initial monthly insurance expense? What is the expected annual growth rate in your insurance expense?
• What is your initial monthly office supplies expense? What is the expected annual growth rate in your office supplies expense?
• What is your initial monthly cost for “other” expenses? What is the expected annual growth rate in your “other” expenses?

Assumptions related to Capital Expenditures, Funding, Tax, and Balance Sheet Items

• How much money do you need for Capital Expenditures in your first year  (to buy computers, desks, equipment, space build-out, etc.)?
• How much other funding do you need right now?
• What percent of the funding will be financed by Debt (versus equity)?
• What Corporate Tax Rate would you like to apply to company profits?
• What is your Current Liabilities Turnover (in the number of days)?
• What are your Current Assets, excluding cash (in the number of days)?
• What is your Depreciation rate?
• What is your Amortization number of Years?
• What is the number of years in which your debt (loan) must be paid back?
• What is your Debt Payback interest rate?

Create Two Scenarios

It would be best if you used your assumptions to create two sets of financial projections that exhibit two very different scenarios. One is your best-case scenario, and the other is your worst-case. Investors are usually very interested in how a business plan will play out in both these scenarios, allowing them to better analyze the robustness and potential profitability of a business.  

Conduct a Ratio Analysis

Gain an understanding of average industry financial ratios, including operating ratios, profitability ratios, return on investment ratios, and the like. You can then compare your own estimates with these existing ratios to evaluate costs you may have overlooked or find historical financial data to support your projected performance. This ratio analysis helps ensure your financial projections are neither excessively optimistic nor excessively pessimistic.  

Be Realistic

It is easy to get carried away when dealing with estimates and you end up with very optimistic financial projections that will feel untenable to an objective audience. Investors are quick to notice and question inflated figures. Rather than excite investors, such scenarios will compromise your legitimacy.  

Create Multi-Year Financial Projections

The first year of your financial projections should be presented on a granular, monthly basis. For subsequent years, annual projections will suffice. It is advised to have three- or five-year projections ready when you start courting investors. Since your plan needs to be succinct, you can add yearly projections as appendices to your main plan.

You should now know how to create financial projections for your business plan. In addition to creating your full projections as their own document, you will need to insert your financial projections into your plan. In your executive summary, Insert your topline projections, that is, just your sales, gross margins, recurring expenses, EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization), and net income). In the financial plan section of your plan, insert your key assumptions and a little more detail than your topline projections. Include your full financial model in the appendix of your plan.

Other Resources for Writing Your Business Plan

• How to Write an Executive Summary
• How to Expertly Write the Company Description in Your Business Plan
• How to Write the Market Analysis Section of a Business Plan
• The Customer Analysis Section of Your Business Plan
• Completing the Competitive Analysis Section of Your Business Plan
• How to Write the Management Team Section of a Business Plan + Examples
• Financial Assumptions and Your Business Plan
• Everything You Need to Know about the Business Plan Appendix
• Business Plan Conclusion: Summary & Recap

Other Helpful Business Plan Articles & Templates

Financial Projections for Startups and Small Businesses

What’s on the horizon for your business? Will you need to hire new employees? Invest in new capital expenditures? Or maybe even consider opening a new location? Financial projections provide insight for small businesses and startups to plan for the future, as well as data and information potential lenders and investors need to understand your business.

What Are Financial Projections?

A financial projection is what your business expects to happen, based off hypothetical situations using the facts and data you have available. A financial projection is often prepared to present a course of action for evaluation. It’s a type of pro forma statement. Some examples of pro forma financial statements include projected income statements, balance sheets and cash flow statements.

Projections are based on financial modeling techniques and provide the answers to questions that may come from lenders, investors or other business stakeholders. Essentially, these statements are an answer to the questions, “If we lend you this money, what will you do with it? And how will you pay it back?”

Why Are Financial Projections So Important for Startups and Small Businesses?

Financial projections help you see when you may have financing needs and the best times to make capital expenditures. They help you monitor cash flow, change pricing or alter production plans.

Projections provide all the minutia that lenders might be looking for to better understand your business: how it obtains revenue and where it spends money. Additionally, if your business is ever the target of an acquisition, the financial statements help potential buyers evaluate its worth.

There are subtle differences between the terms projection and forecast. But both describe predictions of future financial performance using financial models. A financial forecast presents predicted outcomes based on the conditions you expect to exist for your business. Projections are financial statements that present an expected financial position given one or more hypothetical assumptions.

For example, Linda’s Linens is growing its sales volume 10% each year, and that growth has been steady for the last 18 months. After examining the financial forecast, it’s reasonable for Linda to assume that growth will continue, and she should plan accordingly. This helps her with inventory planning, hiring decisions and how much to allocate for marketing.

Linda is considering opening a second location. So she prepares a financial projection to show her bank a “what if” scenario to see how much growth she might expect if she received a loan to open another store on the other side of town. The hypothetical situation of opening a new location in the financial projection is what makes it different from the sustained growth she might reasonably suspect in the financial forecast.

What Are Financial Projections Used For?

Financial projections help you realize possible potential in your business. What might happen if you receive outside funding? Or purchase additional equipment? This is where you get to be creative and explore what the future of your business might look like.

Business Plan: Financial projections and business plans go hand-in-hand. It’s a way to show that your company is stable and is financially successful. It’s a good practice to provide quarterly or monthly projections for the first year and annual projections for the four years after that. These include projected income statements, balance sheets, cash flow statements and budgets for capital expenditures. You should be able to explain projections and match them to funding.

Investors: Your potential investors want to know if the business will make money and when they can expect a return on their investment. Some common benchmarks to watch for include how long it will take until the company turns a profit, sales in years three and five, and data showing how your numbers fit in context of your industry.

Loans and Lines of Credit: These are the most common sources of external funding for small businesses. To secure a Small Business Association (SBA) loan, you’ll need a thorough understanding of your finances so you can show the lender how your funds will be used and when the loan will be paid back.

Know your Business: Financial projections show discipline in financial management – and better financial management leads to a much higher chance of business success. By using a financial model to make financial projections, you can see if, when and whether your business will make a profit. You’ll have a better understanding of your cash position to make better decisions about when to hire more people, buy more inventory or make capital investments.

7 Steps to Building a Financial Projection for Your Startup or Small Business

Some common scenarios for projections are monthly projections for year one, quarterly for the next two years and annual thereafter. To build out your financial projections and make them as useful as possible, consider including the following:

• Sales revenue estimates
• Cost of sales or cost of goods sold (COGs)
• Operating costs
• Capital expenditures
• Gross margin by product line
• Sales increase by product line
• Interest rates on debts
• Income tax rate
• Accounts receivable collection plan
• Accounts payable schedule
• Inventory turnover
• Depreciation schedules
• The usefulness or depreciation of assets

Financial projections will usually have a detailed view in a spreadsheet, as well as a summary of some of the most important information. To create this, your business will need a financial model, or a summary of your company’s expenses and earnings. Some of the basic areas to start building financial projections include:

• Create a sales forecast.

What’s driving your sales? That’s where you should start with your projections. For example, if you have a subscription-based web business, correlate sales with estimated website traffic, and conversion rates with the source of traffic. Like a project management platform that sees 1.5% of its traffic from organic Google searches turn into paying customers. The same project management company should also identify conversion rates for customers who land on the site from ads. That way they can estimate how many new customers an increased ad spend or increased organic searches might attract. And finally, the platform should track their churn rate, or how many customers don’t renew their subscription.

For a business that sells physical products, the sales forecast should estimate the number of units it will sell and the price per unit. It’s also helpful to see where and how the items are being sold: How many stores are carrying the products? How are each of those stores performing? The company should factor in things that might affect sales like seasonality. For example, more ice cream and sunscreen are sold in the summer. Is there a seasonality to your product?

• Create an expense budget.

Expenses will include the costs associated with sales, as well as operating expenses. To forecast cost of sales or cost of goods sold (COGS), take all of the current information on the income statement about product cost, fulfillment expense, customer service and merchant fees. Express assumptions about how that will change as a percentage of revenue. Apply the same idea to operating expenses. Consider how headcount, salaries and benefits as well as expenses like advertising, rent and more will change and express everything (with the exception of headcount) as a percentage.

• Create the income statement projection.

Link those assumptions to formulas built in the income statement. The financial model will forecast revenue, net revenue, COGS, gross profit, gross margin, operating expense, operating profit and operating margin. The output of the financial model is the projected income statement.

• Create the cash flow projection.

The projected income statement shows you, as well as potential lenders and investors, if the company is profitable and/or when it is expected to make a profit. The cash flow projection shows your cash position and provides a more detailed view of monthly inflows and outflows of cash for a specific period of time — 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, etc.

• Create the balance sheet projection.

Where the cash flow projection lets you see when there should be cash influxes and dips, the balance sheet shows or projects the worth of your company at any given time. Cash flow projections appear on your balance sheet as assets. On the liabilities side of the balance sheet, you’ll list things like accounts payable and debt.

• Use projections for planning.

Projections are important when seeking new funding. And they help you know when to make capital expenditures. For planning, projections help with analyzing the impact of different business strategies. For example, what if you charge a higher or lower price? What if you’re able to collect invoices faster? Running and testing these various numbers shows how such decisions could affect finances.

Projected financial statements also help you prepare for best and worst case scenarios. You can use projected financial statements to drill down to the product level and know when it will be profitable, when to ramp up production or even when it no longer makes business sense to continue producing it.

By comparing projections against actual results you can see if you’re on target or need to adjust to reach them. Consider purchasing accounting and planning software for financial projections . Tracking performance is much easier and quicker with dashboards and charts that can show you at-a-glance information.

Plan & Forecast More Accurately

Benefits of Using Accounting and Planning Software for Financial Projections

There are advantages to automating financial modeling. You can handle more complex datasets and certain visualization capabilities, as well as streamline financial projections.

• All lines of businesses are connected to the same data, improving control, visibility and trust in the numbers.
• Drill-through capability means you can spend more time drilling into the data to understand the source of the numbers. Finance then has more time to understand the "why" and can better help the business owners understand how their decisions affect the rest of the company.
• You can easily run what-if-scenario analysis to explore different business opportunities.
• Pre-built reports and dashboards make it easy to compare projected vs. actual results.

Automation can increase accuracy save time, and help you compare actual and forecasted results in charts and dashboards. With so much potential, automation is a growing trend. In fact, a survey by Robert Half, a global human resources consulting firm, found that nearly one quarter of respondents expect to automate processes behind financial forecasting.

But even if the analytics associated with financial projection aren’t automated, using technology to automate other parts of the accounting process that go into building the static financial statements provide savings in terms of speed and accuracy.

To run a business, you need to know not just where you are financially, but where you want to be. There is a correlation between how frequently small businesses examine their financial statements and the financial health of their business. The U.S. Small Business Administration found businesses that only look at financial statements annually have a 25% success rate. But those that do it monthly have a success rate of 75%-85%, and those that do it weekly have a 95% success rate. It takes more than just a good idea and dedication to make your business succeed. And accounting software for financial planning is an important tool to keep your company on track to prosperity.

Financial Management

Small Business Financial Management: Tips, Importance and Challenges

It is remarkably difficult to start a small business. Only about half stay open for five years, and only a third make it to the 10-year mark. That’s why it’s vital to make every effort to succeed. And one of the most fundamental…

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How to Write a Small Business Financial Plan

Noah Parsons

3 min. read

Updated January 3, 2024

Creating a financial plan is often the most intimidating part of writing a business plan. It’s also one of the most vital. Businesses with well-structured and accurate financial statements in place are more prepared to pitch to investors, receive funding, and achieve long-term success.

Thankfully, you don’t need an accounting degree to successfully put your budget and forecasts together. Here is everything you need to include in your financial plan along with optional performance metrics, specifics for funding, and free templates.

• Key components of a financial plan

A sound financial plan is made up of six key components that help you easily track and forecast your business financials. They include your:

Sales forecast

What do you expect to sell in a given period? Segment and organize your sales projections with a personalized sales forecast based on your business type.

Subscription sales forecast

While not too different from traditional sales forecasts—there are a few specific terms and calculations you’ll need to know when forecasting sales for a subscription-based business.

Expense budget

Create, review, and revise your expense budget to keep your business on track and more easily predict future expenses.

How to forecast personnel costs

How much do your current, and future, employees’ pay, taxes, and benefits cost your business? Find out by forecasting your personnel costs.

Profit and loss forecast

Track how you make money and how much you spend by listing all of your revenue streams and expenses in your profit and loss statement.

Cash flow forecast

Manage and create projections for the inflow and outflow of cash by building a cash flow statement and forecast.

Balance sheet

Need a snapshot of your business’s financial position? Keep an eye on your assets, liabilities, and equity within the balance sheet.

What to include if you plan to pursue funding

Do you plan to pursue any form of funding or financing? If the answer is yes, then there are a few additional pieces of information that you’ll need to include as part of your financial plan.

Highlight any risks and assumptions

Every entrepreneur takes risks with the biggest being assumptions and guesses about the future. Just be sure to track and address these unknowns in your plan early on.

Plan your exit strategy

Investors will want to know your long-term plans as a business owner. While you don’t need to have all the details, it’s worth taking the time to think through how you eventually plan to leave your business.

• Financial ratios and metrics

With all of your financial statements and forecasts in place, you have all the numbers needed to calculate insightful financial ratios. While these metrics are entirely optional to include in your plan, having them easily accessible can be valuable for tracking your performance and overall financial situation.

Common business ratios

Unsure of which business ratios you should be using? Check out this list of key financial ratios that bankers, financial analysts, and investors will want to see.

Break-even analysis

Do you want to know when you’ll become profitable? Find out how much you need to sell to offset your production costs by conducting a break-even analysis.

How to calculate ROI

How much could a business decision be worth? Evaluate the efficiency or profitability by calculating the potential return on investment (ROI).

• Financial plan templates and tools

Download and use these free financial templates and calculators to easily create your own financial plan.

Sales forecast template

Download a free detailed sales forecast spreadsheet, with built-in formulas, to easily estimate your first full year of monthly sales.

Download Template

Accurate and easy financial forecasting

Get a full financial picture of your business with LivePlan's simple financial management tools.

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See why 1.2 million entrepreneurs have written their business plans with LivePlan

Noah is the COO at Palo Alto Software, makers of the online business plan app LivePlan. He started his career at Yahoo! and then helped start the user review site Epinions.com. From there he started a software distribution business in the UK before coming to Palo Alto Software to run the marketing and product teams.

Table of Contents

• What to include for funding

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How to make financial projections for business.

Writing a solid business plan should be the first step for any business owner looking to create a successful business. 

As a small business owner, you will want to get the attention of investors, partners, or potential highly skilled employees. It is, therefore, important to have a realistic financial forecast incorporated into your business plan. 

We’ll break down a financial projection and how to utilize it to give your business the best start possible.

Key Takeaways

Accurate financial projections are essential for businesses to succeed. In this article, we’ll explain everything you need to know about creating financial projections for your business. Here’s what you need to know about financial projections:

• A financial projection is a group of financial statements that are used to forecast future performance
• Creating financial projections can break down into 5 simple steps: sales projections, expense projections, balance sheet projections, income statement projections, and cash flow projections
• Financial projections can offer huge benefits to your business, including helping with forecasting future performance, ensuring steady cash flow, and planning key moves around the growth of the business

Here’s What We’ll Cover:

What Is a Financial Projection?

How to Create a Financial Projection

What goes into a financial projection, what are financial projections used for.

Financial Projections Advantages

Frequently Asked Questions

What Is Financial Projection?

A financial projection is essentially a set of financial statements . These statements will forecast future revenues and expenses. 

Any projection includes your cash inflows and outlays, your general income, and your balance sheet. 

They are perfect for showing bankers and investors how you plan to repay business loans. They also show what you intend to do with your money and how you expect your business to grow. 

Most projections are for the first 3-5 years of business, but some include a 10-year forecast too.

Either way, you will need to develop a short and mid-term projection broken down month by month. 

As you are just starting out with your business, you won’t be expected to provide exact details. Most financial projections are rough guesses. But they should also be educated guesses based on market trends, research, and looking at similar businesses. 

It’s incredibly important for financial statements to be realistic. Most investors will be able to spot a fanciful projection from a mile away. 

In general, most people would prefer to be given realistic projections, even if they’re not as impressive.

Financial projections are created to help business owners gain insight into the future of their company’s financials. 

The question is, how to create financial projections? For business plan purposes, it’s important that you follow the best practices of financial projection closely. This will ensure you get accurate insight, which is vital for existing businesses and new business startups alike.

Here are the steps for creating accurate financial projections for your business.

1. Start With A Sales Projection

For starters, you’ll need to project how much your business will make in sales. If you’re creating a sales forecast for an existing business, you’ll have past performance records to project your next period. Past data can provide useful information for your financial projection, such as if your sales do better in one season than another.

Be sure also to consider external factors, such as the economy at large, the potential for added tariffs and taxes in the future, supply chain issues, or industry downturns. 

The process is almost the same for new businesses, only without past data to refer to. Business startups will need to do more research on their industry to gain insight into potential future sales.

2. Create Your Expense Projection

Next, create an expense projection for your business. In a sense, this is an easier task than a sales projection since it seems simpler to predict your own behaviors than your customers. However, it’s vital that you expect the unexpected.

Optimism is great, but the worst-case scenario must be considered and accounted for in your expense projection. From accidents in the workplace to natural disasters, rising trade prices, to unexpected supply disruptions, you need to consider these large expenses in your projection. 

Something always comes up, so we suggest you add a 10-15% margin on your expense projection.

3. Create Your Balance Sheet Projection

A balance sheet projection is used to get a clear look at your business’s financial position related to assets, liabilities , and equity, giving you a more holistic view of the company’s overall financial health. 

For startup businesses, this can prove to be a lot of work since you won’t have existing records of past performance to pull from. This will need to be factored into your industry research to create an accurate financial projection.

For existing businesses, it will be more straightforward. Use your past and current balance sheets to predict your business’s position in the next 1-3 years. If you use a cloud-based, online accounting software with the feature to generate balance sheets, such as the one offered by FreshBooks, you’ll be able to quickly create balance sheets for your financial projection within the app.

Click here to learn more about the features of FreshBooks accounting software.

4. Make Your Income Statement Projection

Next up, create an income statement projection. An income statement is used to declare the net income of a business after all expenses have been made. In other words, it states the profits of a business.

For currently operating businesses, you can use your past income statements and the changes between them to create accurate predictions for the next 1-3 years. You can also use accounting software to generate your income statements automatically. 

You’ll need to work on rough estimates for new businesses or those still in the planning phase. It’s vital that you stay realistic and do your utmost to create an accurate, good-faith projection of future income. 

5. Finally, Create Your Cash Flow Projection

Last but not least is to generate your projected cash flow statement. A cash flow projection forecasts the movement of all money to and from your business. It’s intertwined with a business’s balance sheet and income statement, which is no different when creating projections. 

If your business has been operating for six months or more, you can create a fairly accurate cash flow projection with your past cash flow financial statements. For new businesses, you’ll need to factor in this step of creating a financial forecast when doing your industry research. 

It needs to include five elements to ensure an accurate, useful financial forecast for your business. These financial statements come together to provide greater insight into the projected future of a business’s financial health. These include:

Income Statement

A standard income statement summarizes your company’s revenues and expenses over a period. This is normally done either quarterly or annually.

The income statement is where you will do the bulk of your forecasting. 

On any income statement, you’re likely to find the following:

• Revenue: Your revenue earned through sales. 
• Expenses: The amount you’ve spent, including your product costs and your overheads.
• Pre-Tax Earnings: This is your income before you’ve paid tax.
• Net Income: The total revenues minus your total expenses. 

Net income is the most important number. If the number is positive, then you’re earning a profit, if it’s negative, it means your expenses outweigh your revenue and you’re making a loss. 

Cash Flow Statement

Your cash flow statement will show any potential investor whether you are a good credit risk. It also shows them if you can successfully repay any loans you are granted.

You can break a cash flow statement into three parts:

• Cash Revenues: An overview of your calculated cash sales for a given time period. 
• Cash Disbursements: You list all the cash expenditures you expect to pay.
• Net Cash Revenue: Take the cash revenues minus your cash disbursements.

Balance Sheet

Your balance sheet will show your business’s net worth at a given time.

A balance sheet is split up into three different sections:

• Assets: An asset is a tangible object of value that your company owns. It could be things like stock or property such as warehouses or offices. 
• Liabilities: These are any debts your business owes.
• Equity: Your equity is the summary of your assets minus your liabilities.

Looking for an easy-to-use yet capable online accounting software? FreshBooks accounting software is a cloud-based solution that makes financial projections simple. With countless financial reporting features and detailed guides on creating accurate financial forecasts, FreshBooks can help you gain the insight you need to let your business thrive. Click here to give FreshBooks a try for free.

Financial projections have many uses for current business owners and startup entrepreneurs. Provided your financial forecasting follows the best practices for an accurate projection, your data will be used for:

• Internal planning and budgeting – Your finances will be the main factor in whether or not you’ll be able to execute your business plan to completion. Financial projections allow you to make it happen.
• Attracting investors and securing funding – Whether you’re receiving financing from bank loans, investors, or both, an accurate projection will be essential in receiving the funds you need.
• Evaluating business performance and identifying areas for improvement – Financial projections help you keep track of your business’s financial health, allowing you to plan ahead and avoid unwelcome surprises.
• Making strategic business decisions – Timing is important in business, especially when it comes to major expenditures (new product rollouts, large-scale marketing, expansion, etc.). Financial projections allow you to make an informed strategy for these big decisions.

Financial Projections Advantages 

Creating clear financial projections for your business startup or existing company has countless benefits. Focusing on creating (and maintaining) good financial forecasting for your business will:

• Help you make vital financial decisions for the business in the future
• Help you plan and strategize for growth and expansion
• Demonstrate to bankers how you will repay your loans 
• Demonstrate to investors how you will repay financing
• Identify your most essential financing needs in the future
• Assist in fine-tuning your pricing
• Be helpful when strategizing your production plan
• Be a useful tool for planning your major expenditures strategically
• Help you keep an eye on your cash flow for the future

Your financial forecast is an essential part of your business plan, whether you’re still in the early startup phases or already running an established business. However, it’s vital that you follow the best practices laid out above to ensure you receive the full benefits of comprehensive financial forecasting.  

If you’re looking for a useful tool to save time on the administrative tasks of financial forecasting, FreshBooks can help. With the ability to instantly generate the reports you need and get a birds-eye-view of your business’s past performance and overall financial help, it will be easier to create useful financial projections that provide insight into your financial future. 

FAQs on Financial Projections

More questions about financial forecasting, projections, and how these processes fit into your business plan? Here are some frequently asked questions by business owners.

Why are financial projections important?

Financial projections allow you to gain insight into your business’s economic trajectory. This helps business owners make financial decisions, secure funding, and more. Additionally, financial projections provide early warning of roadblocks and challenges that may lay ahead for the company, making it easier to plan for a clear course of action.

What is an example of a financial projection?

A projection is an overall look at a business’s forecasted performance. It’s made up of several different statements and reports, such as a cash flow statement, income statement, profit and loss statement, and sales statement. You can find free templates and examples of many of these reports via FreshBooks. Click here to view our selection of accounting templates.

Are financial forecasts and financial projections the same?

Technically, there is a difference between forecasting and projections, though many use the terms interchangeably. Financial forecasting often refers to shorter-term (<1 year) predictions of financial performance, while financial projections usually focus on a larger time scale (2-3 years).

What is the most widely used method for financial forecasting?

The most common method of accurate forecasting is the straight-line forecasting method. It’s most often used for projecting the growth of a business’s revenue growth over a set period. If you notice that your records indicate a 4% growth of revenue per year for five years running, it would be reasonable to assume that this will continue year-over-year. 

What is the purpose of a financial projection?

Projection aims to get deeper, more nuanced insight into a business’s financial health and viability. It allows business owners to anticipate expenses and profit growth, giving them the tools to secure funding and loans and strategize major business decisions. It’s an essential accounting process that all business owners should prioritize in their business plans.

Michelle Alexander, CPA

About the author

Michelle Alexander is a CPA and implementation consultant for Artificial Intelligence-powered financial risk discovery technology. She has a Master's of Professional Accounting from the University of Saskatchewan, and has worked in external audit compliance and various finance roles for Government and Big 4. In her spare time you’ll find her traveling the world, shopping for antique jewelry, and painting watercolour floral arrangements.

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Business Plan Financial Projections: How To Create Accurate Targets

• Written by Keith Murphy
• 16 min read

Small businesses and startups have a lot riding on their ability to create effective and accurate financial projections as part of their business plan. Solid financials are a strong enticement for investors, after all, and can help new businesses chart a course that will take them beyond the legendendarily difficult first year and into a productive and profitable future.

But the need for business owners to look ahead in order to secure funding, increase profits, and make intelligent financial decisions doesn’t end when startups become full-fledged businesses—and business plan financial projections aren’t just for startups. Existing businesses can also put them to good use by harvesting insights from their existing financial statements and creating sales projections and other financial forecasts that guide and improve their ongoing business planning.

What Are Business Plan Financial Projections?

Successful companies plan ahead, looking as best they can into the near and distant future to chart a course to growth, innovation, and competitive strength. Financial projections, both as part of an initial business plan and as part of ongoing business planning, use a company’s financial statements to help business owners forecast their upcoming expenses and revenue in a strategically useful way.

Most businesses use two types of financial projections:

• Short-term projections are broken down by month and generally cover the coming 12 months. They provide a guide companies can use to monitor and adjust their financial activity to set and hit targets for the financial year. In the first year, short-term projections will be entirely estimated, but in subsequent years, historical data can be used to help fine-tune them for greater accuracy and strategic utility.
• Long-term projections are focused on the coming three to five years and are generally used to secure investment (both initial and ongoing), provide a strategic roadmap for the company’s growth, or both.

For startups, creating financial projections is part of their initial business plan. Providing financial forecasts banks and potential investors can use to determine the financial viability of a business is key to obtaining financing and investments needed to get the business off the ground.

For existing businesses—for whom an initial business plan has evolved into business planning—financial projections are useful in attracting investors who want to see clear estimates for upcoming revenue, expenses, and potential growth. They’re also helpful in securing loans and lines of credit from financial institutions for the same reason. And even if you’re not trying to get funding or investments, financial projections provide a useful framework for building budgets focused on growth and competitive advantage.

So whether you’re a small business owner, an aspiring tycoon starting a new business, or part of the financial team at a well-established corporation, what matters most is viewing financial projections as a living, breathing reference tool that can help you plan and budget for growth in a realistic way while still setting aspirational goals for your business.

Financial projections, both as part of an initial business plan and as part of ongoing business planning, use a company’s financial statements to help business owners forecast their upcoming expenses and revenue in a strategically useful way.

Financial Projections: Core Components

Whether you’re preparing them as part of your business plan or to enhance your business planning, you’ll need the same financial statements to prepare financial projections: an income statement, a cash-flow statement, and a balance sheet.

• Income statements , sometimes called profit and loss statements , provide detailed information on your company’s revenue and expenses for a given period (e.g., a quarter, year, or multi-year period).
• Cash flow statements provide a comprehensive view of cash flowing into and out of a business. They record all cash flow from operations, investment, and financing activities.
• Balance sheets are used to showcase a company’s assets, liabilities, and owner’s equity for a specific period.

How to Create Financial Projections

The process of creating financial projections is the same whether you’re drafting a business plan or creating forecasts for an existing business. The primary difference is whether you’ll draw on your own research and expertise (a new business or startup business) or use historical data (existing businesses).

Keep in mind that while you’ll create the necessary documents separately, you’ll most likely finish them by consulting each of them as needed. For example, your sales forecast might change once you prepare your cash-flow statement. The best approach is to view each document as both its own piece of the financial projection puzzle and a reference for the others; this will help ensure you can assemble comprehensive and clear financial projections.

1. Start with a Sales Projection

A sales forecast is the first step in creating your income statement. You can start with a one, three, or five-year projection, but keep in mind that, without historical financial data, accuracy may decrease over time. It’s best to start with monthly income statements until you reach your projected break-even , which is the point at which revenue exceeds total operating expenses and you show a profit. Once you hit the break-even, you can transition to annual income statements.

Also, keep in mind factors outside of sales; market conditions, global environmental, political, and health concerns, sourcing challenges (including pricing changes and increased variable costs) and other business disruptors can put the kibosh on your carefully constructed forecasts if you leave them out of your considerations.

Start with a reasonable estimate of the units sold for the forecast period, and multiply them by the price per unit. This value is your total sales for the period.

Next, estimate the total cost of producing these units (i.e., the cost of goods sold , or COGS; sometimes called cost of sales ) by multiplying the per-unit cost by the number of units produced.

Deducting your COGS from your estimated sales yields your gross profit margin.

From the gross margin, subtract expenses such as wages, marketing costs, rent, and other operating expenses. The result is your projected operating income , or net income .

Using these figures, you can create an income statement:

2. Cash Flow Statement

Tracking your estimated cash inflows and outflows from investment and financing, combined with the cash generated by business operations, is the purpose of a cash flow projection .

Investment activities might include, for example, purchasing real estate or investing in research and development outside of daily operations.

Financing activities include cash inflows from investor funding or business loans, as well as cash outflows to repay debts or pay dividends to shareholders.

A reliable and accurate cash flow projection is essential to managing your working capital effectively and ensuring you have all the cash you need to cover your ongoing obligations while still having enough left to invest in growth and innovation or cover emergencies.

Drawing from our income statement, we can create a basic cash flow statement:

3. The Balance Sheet

Providing a “snapshot” of your businesses’ financial performance for a given period of time, the balance sheet contains your company’s assets, liabilities, and owner’s equity.

Assets include inventory, real estate, and capital, while liabilities represent financial obligations and include accounts payable, bank loans, and other debt.

Owner’s equity represents the amount remaining once liabilities have been paid.

Ideally, over time your company’s balance sheet will reflect your growth through a reduction of liabilities and an increase in owner’s equity.

We can complete our triumvirate of financial statements with a basic balance sheet:

Best Practices for Effective Financial Projections

Like a lot of other business processes, financial planning can be complex, time-consuming, and even frustrating if you’re still using manual workflows and paper documents or basic spreadsheet-style applications such as Microsoft Excel. You can get free templates for basic financial projections from the Service Corps of Retired Executives (SCORE), but even templates can only take you so far.

Without a doubt, the best advantage you can give yourself in creating effective and accurate financial projections—whether they’re for the financial section of your business plan or simply part of your ongoing business planning—is to invest in comprehensive procure-to-pay (P2P) software such as Planergy.

In addition to helpful templates, best-in-class P2P software also provides a rich array of real-time data analysis, reporting, and forecasting tools that make it easy to transform historical data (or market research) into accurate forecasts. In addition, artificial intelligence and process automation make it easy to collect, organize, manage and share your data with all internal stakeholders, so everyone has the information they need to create the most useful and complete forecasts and projections possible.

Beyond investing in P2P software, you can also improve the quality and accuracy of your financial projections by:

• Doing your homework. Invest in financial statement analysis and ratio analysis, with a focus not just on your own company, but your industry and the market in general. Learn the current ratios used for liquidity analysis, profitability, and debt and compare them to your own to get a more nuanced and useful understanding of how your company performs internally and within the context of the marketplace.
• Keeping it real. It can be all too easy to get carried away with pie-in-the-sky optimism when forecasting the future of your business. Rose-colored glasses aren’t exclusive to startups and small businesses; over-inflated estimates can hobble even veteran organizations if they don’t practice good data discipline and temper their hopes with practical considerations. Focus on creating realistic, but positive, projections, and you won’t have to worry about investors or lenders glancing askance at your hard work.
• Hoping for the best, but planning for the worst. Run two scenarios when performing your financial projections: the best-case scenario where everything goes perfectly to plan, and a worse-case scenario where Murphy’s Law holds sway. While actual performance will undoubtedly fall somewhere in between the two, having an upper and lower boundary appeals to investors and lenders who are assessing your company’s financial viability.

Financial Projections Help You Reach Your Goals for Growth

From startups to global corporations, every business needs reliable tools for financial forecasting. Take the time to create well-researched, data-driven financial projections, and you’ll be well-equipped to attract investors, secure funding, and chart a course for greater profits, growth, and performance in today’s competitive marketplace.

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How to Write a Financial Projection for Your Business Plan

Every entrepreneur understands the importance of a solid business plan, but not all grasp the crucial role of financial projections within that blueprint. Financial projections aren’t just about appeasing investors or lenders; they’re about charting a realistic and sustainable course for your business’s future. They offer a window into the anticipated financial health of your enterprise, guiding decisions and flagging potential challenges. Here we navigate the intricacies of crafting a comprehensive financial projection, illuminating the steps to ensure your business’s financial clarity and readiness.

Definition of a Financial Projection

Garner investor trust, secure loans, guide internal decision making, revenue forecast, expense budget, cash flow statement, profit and loss statement, balance sheet, short-term (1 year), medium-term (3-5 years), long-term (5+ years), previous sales figures, past operating expenses, capital expenditures and investments, analyzing market trends, factoring in business growth and expansion, considering economic factors, fixed costs, variable costs, unexpected expenses, expected incoming cash, expected outgoing cash, ensuring positive cash flow, estimating gross profit, factoring in operational costs, predicting net profit, current assets and liabilities, long-term assets and liabilities, owner’s equity, avoid overestimating sales, plan for worst-case scenarios, factor in new data, adjust for external changes, hire or consult a financial expert, utilize financial software, list assumptions explicitly, regularly review and challenge assumptions, stick to a format, cross-check for discrepancies, introduction to financial projections.

In the realm of business planning, there’s a phrase that often circulates: “If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.” While many aspects of a business plan are crucial, understanding and projecting your business’s financial future might be one of the most pivotal. These projections can serve multiple purposes, from seeking funding to ensuring your business remains on a growth trajectory.

So, what exactly is a financial projection? At its core, a financial projection is a forecast of your business’s future financial performance. It’s a prediction of revenues, expenses, and profitability based on past data, current market conditions, and expected future trends. Imagine it as a roadmap for where you expect your business’s finances to be in the upcoming months and years.

Importance of Financial Projections in Business Planning

Underestimating the significance of financial projections is a common pitfall. These aren’t mere numbers on a sheet; they are a visualization of your business’s heartbeat. Financial projections:

For investors, your financial projection provides a glimpse into your business acumen, illustrating if you’ve done your homework and are aware of potential challenges ahead.

When approaching lenders, they’ll want to be assured of your business’s capability to repay. Your projections offer this assurance, showing your anticipated income and expenses [1] .

For your internal team, these figures act as a lighthouse, ensuring that your business stays on course. They can help identify potential cash flow issues, guide pricing strategies, and determine potential areas of investment or cost-cutting.

Understanding the Basics of a Financial Projection

Before getting into creating your financial projections, it’s essential to grasp some foundational concepts. By understanding the primary components and the typical time frames involved, you’re better positioned to tailor your projections to your business’s unique needs and situations.

Key Components of Financial Projections

Every business, regardless of its size or industry, has some standard financial components that need to be factored into projections. While the depth and complexity may vary, the core elements remain consistent.

The revenue forecast is a prediction of the sales and income your business expects to generate over a particular period. This isn’t just a ballpark figure but should be based on tangible data like historical sales, current orders, and market trends.

This encapsulates all the costs your business is likely to incur. From salaries and rent to marketing expenses and utilities, an expense budget provides a comprehensive view of where your money will be going. It’s crucial for ensuring profitability and identifying areas where cost-efficiency can be improved.

Arguably one of the most critical components, the cash flow statement provides insights into how cash moves in and out of your business. It ensures that your business remains liquid, can pay its bills, and can invest in growth opportunities when they arise.

Often referred to as the income statement, this document gives an overview of your business’s profitability over time. It considers both revenues (income) and expenses to determine if the business is making a profit or incurring a loss.

Acting as a snapshot of your business’s financial health at a particular point in time, the balance sheet outlines your assets (what the company owns), liabilities (what the company owes), and equity (the owner’s or shareholders’ stake in the company) [2] .

Time Period for Projections

Financial projections aren’t a one-size-fits-all endeavor. Depending on your business goals, the nature of your industry, and specific needs, the projection period can vary. Generally, these projections can be categorized into short, medium, and long-term.

These projections provide a granular view of the business’s financial path in the immediate future. Especially beneficial for startups or businesses undergoing significant changes, short-term projections often have monthly or quarterly breakdowns.

Taking a broader perspective, medium-term projections are essential for businesses looking to expand, introduce new products, or enter new markets. They offer a more extended glimpse into the business’s financial health, enabling strategic planning and long-term decision-making.

For established businesses or those in industries with lengthy product development cycles, long-term projections can be invaluable. These offer a panoramic view of the business’s trajectory, helping to shape large-scale investments, mergers, or other significant financial decisions.

Steps to Create a Financial Projection

Crafting a financial projection might seem daunting, especially if you’re diving into it for the first time. However, with a systematic approach, it becomes a manageable task, allowing you to translate your business vision into numerical realities.

Gather Historical Data

Starting with a review of your business’s past performance provides a foundation upon which future projections can be built. Historical data not only offers a perspective of where you’ve been but can help in predicting future trends.

Begin with a thorough analysis of your past sales data. This can include monthly sales, seasonal fluctuations, and year-on-year growth. If your business is new and lacks historical sales data, consider analyzing competitors or similar businesses in your industry.

Scrutinize previous costs, identifying any patterns. Did marketing expenses peak at a particular time of the year? Were there unexpected costs that recurred? Recognizing these trends can guide your projections.

Review past investments, including machinery, property, or other significant purchases. Understand their depreciation and how they influenced your financial position.

Estimate Future Revenues

With historical data in hand, you can now start forecasting future income. This requires a mix of analysis, market understanding, and sometimes, a bit of educated guesswork [3] .

Stay abreast of market developments, sector growth, and broader economic indicators. For instance, if there’s a growing demand for eco-friendly products and your business is in that niche, you can anticipate higher sales.

Consider any expansion plans, be it opening a new store, launching a new product line, or tapping into a new market segment. These ventures will likely impact your revenue streams.

External factors like inflation, economic downturns, or changes in regulatory environments can all affect your business revenues. It’s crucial to factor these into your revenue projections.

Forecast Operating Expenses

Understanding your future costs is just as vital as predicting revenues. A business might have skyrocketing sales, but if expenses aren’t managed, it could still operate at a loss.

Start with costs that remain relatively constant, such as rent, salaries, and utilities. These are predictable and can be easily factored into your projections.

These expenses fluctuate based on business activity. For instance, if you produce more goods, your raw material costs might increase. Forecasting variable costs requires a good understanding of your business operations.

While we can’t predict all unexpected costs, having a contingency or emergency fund is prudent. This can cover unexpected repairs, legal fees, or other unforeseen expenditures.

Project the Cash Flow

The lifeblood of any business, cash flow ensures you can meet your financial obligations, from paying suppliers to covering payroll.

Factor in all sources of incoming cash, not just sales. This can include loans, investments, or any other influx of funds.

Look at all anticipated expenses, both regular and one-off payments. This could range from monthly utility bills to yearly tax payments [4] .

It’s essential that the cash coming into the business is more than what’s going out. Consistently negative cash flow can lead to insolvency.

Compile Profit and Loss Statement

Now, with both projected revenues and expenses at your disposal, you can determine your business’s potential profitability.

Deduct the cost of goods sold (COGS) from your total revenue to get the gross profit. This gives an initial glimpse into the business’s profitability without factoring in other operational costs.

Subtract all operational expenses (both fixed and variable) from your gross profit. This will provide an accurate picture of your net operational profit.

After deducting any additional expenses or obligations, like taxes or loan repayments, you will arrive at the net profit. This is the true bottom line, indicating the health and profitability of your business.

Design the Balance Sheet

A balance sheet provides a comprehensive snapshot of your business’s financial standing at a specific point in time.

List all short-term assets (like cash or inventory) and liabilities (like short-term loans or accounts payable).

Include assets that are expected to provide value over a longer period, like machinery or property. Similarly, factor in long-term debts or obligations.

This represents the owner’s stake in the business. It’s derived by subtracting total liabilities from total assets.

Tips for Creating Accurate Financial Projections

Drafting a financial projection is both an art and a science. While the steps outlined above provide a structured approach, there are certain nuances and best practices that can make the difference between a generic forecast and a truly insightful financial projection.

Stay Conservative in Your Estimates

It’s natural to be optimistic about your business’s prospects, especially if you’re passionate about your venture. However, when it comes to financial forecasting, it’s wise to err on the side of caution [5] .

While it’s tempting to predict a steep upward trend, it’s more prudent to take a conservative stance. This doesn’t mean underselling your business but rather being realistic in your predictions.

Always have a contingency plan. Whether it’s an economic downturn, unexpected expenses, or a key deal falling through, your projection should be resilient enough to weather such challenges.

Regularly Update Projections

The business environment is dynamic, and what might seem like a sure thing today can change tomorrow. Thus, it’s essential to keep your projections updated.

As you gather more data on sales, expenses, and market trends, continuously refine your projections to reflect this new information.

Economic fluctuations, regulatory changes, or even global events can impact business operations. Stay informed and adjust your projections accordingly.

Seek Expertise When Needed

While as a business owner you know your enterprise inside and out, there’s no harm in seeking external expertise, especially when it comes to financial planning.

A seasoned financial expert can bring a fresh perspective, spot potential pitfalls, and even suggest strategies you hadn’t considered.

Modern financial software tools come equipped with features that can automate parts of the projection process, provide templates, and even offer predictive analytics.

Validate Assumptions

Every projection is based on a set of assumptions. While some assumptions are based on hard data, others might be based on market insights or trends.

By clearly stating the assumptions on which your projections are based, you make them transparent for stakeholders and easier for yourself to revisit.

Don’t let your assumptions become set in stone. As the business landscape evolves, revisit these assumptions, challenge them, and refine as needed.

Ensure Consistency

Consistency in how you approach, structure, and revise your financial projections ensures that they remain reliable and easy to understand.

Whether it’s the categories you use, the time frames you consider, or even the software tools you deploy, maintaining consistency makes it easier to track changes, spot trends, and make comparisons.

Ensure that your financial projections align with other aspects of your business plan. For example, if you’re predicting a steep rise in sales, your marketing and operations plans should reflect strategies to drive and accommodate that growth.

[1] 6 steps to making financial projections for your new business [2] Writing a Business Plan—Financial Projections [3] What are Financial Projections and Why Do You Need Them? [4] How to Create a Financial Forecast for a Startup Business Plan [5] Business Plan – Financial Projections Section

Original text

Financial projections use existing or estimated financial data to forecast your business’s future income and expenses. They often include different scenarios to see how changes to one aspect of your finances (such as higher sales or lower operating expenses) might affect your profitability.

If you need to create financial projections for a startup or existing business, this free, downloadable template includes all the necessary tools.

What Are Financial Projections Used for?

Financial projections are an essential business planning tool for several reasons.

• If you’re starting a business, financial projections help you plan your startup budget, assess when you expect the business to become profitable, and set benchmarks for achieving financial goals.
• If you’re already in business, creating financial projections each year can help you set goals and stay on track.
• When seeking outside financing, startups and existing businesses need financial projections to convince lenders and investors of the business’s growth potential.

What’s Included in Financial Projections?

This financial projections template pulls together several different financial documents, including:

• Startup expenses
• Payroll costs
• Sales forecast
• Operating expenses for the first 3 years of business
• Cash flow statements for the first 3 years of business
• Income statements for the first 3 years of business
• Balance sheet
• Break-even analysis
• Financial ratios
• Cost of goods sold (COGS), and
• Amortization and depreciation for your business.

You can use this template to create the documents from scratch or pull in information from those you’ve already made. The template also includes diagnostic tools to test the numbers in your financial projections and ensure they are within reasonable ranges.

These areas are closely related, so as you work on your financial projections, you’ll find that changes to one element affect the others. You may want to include a best-case and worst-case scenario for all possibilities. Make sure you know the assumptions behind your financial projections and can explain them to others.

Startup business owners often wonder how to create financial projections for a business that doesn’t exist yet. Financial forecasts are continually educated guesses. To make yours as accurate as possible, do your homework and get help. Use the information you unearthed in researching your business plans, such as statistics from industry associations, data from government sources, and financials from similar businesses. An accountant with experience in your industry can help fine-tune your financial projections. So can business advisors such as SCORE mentors.

Once you complete your financial projections, don’t put them away and forget about them. Compare your projections to your financial statements regularly to see how well your business meets your expectations. If your projections turn out to be too optimistic or too pessimistic, make the necessary adjustments to make them more accurate.

*NOTE: The cells with formulas in this workbook are locked. If changes are needed, the unlock code is "1234." Please use caution when unlocking the spreadsheets. If you want to change a formula, we strongly recommend saving a copy of this spreadsheet under a different name before doing so. 

We recommend downloading the  Financial Projections Template Guide in English  or  Espanol .

Do you need help creating your financial projections? Take SCORE’s online course on-demand on financial projections or connect with a SCORE mentor  online or in your community today.

Simple Steps for Starting Your Business: Financial Projections In this online module, you'll learn the importance of financial planning, how to build your financial model, how to understand financial statements and more.

Business Planning & Financial Statements Template Gallery Download SCORE’s templates to help you plan for a new business startup or grow your existing business.

Why Projected Financial Statements Are Essential to the Future Success of Startups Financial statements are vital to the success of any company but particularly start-ups. SCORE mentor Sarah Hadjhamou shares why they are a big part of growing your start-up.

Copyright © 2024 SCORE Association, SCORE.org

Funded, in part, through a Cooperative Agreement with the U.S. Small Business Administration. All opinions, and/or recommendations expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the SBA.

Does your business plan need a push?

Writting a business plan can be a springboard exercise for your business, and it's not as difficult as people think. All it takes is a bit of method, and some efficient tools. The good news our free articles and paid course have you covered!

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An article of the Accelerated MBA written by:

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In this article:

Financial projections: how to write the financial plan in business plan.

So, you’ve decided to write a business plan? Good for you! It’s an important document that will help you outline your business goals, strategies, and tactics.

But it’s not just a document for you, as the business owner in charge of everything – it’s also important for potential investors and lenders.

In particular, one of the most important sections of your business plan should be your financial plan or, in other words, your overall financial projections for the next few years – understand, three to five years – distilled in a specific and highly codified format.

Why? Because the financial projections in a business plan are the numbers’ version of your pitch – if something doesn’t add-up, that’s where you see it.

Now, we know that numbers can be impressive (not to say daunting), so in this post, we’ll explain to you how to write a financial plan in your business plan.

We’ll also explain the logic you are supposed to follow to do things right (because financiers expect you to follow a very specific logic).

And we’ll explain what your business plan absolutely needs to include from a financial standpoint.

If that makes sense to you, then let’s get going!

By the way…

Before we dig into the financial projections’ discussion, let us give you a tiny bit of background!

We are professional business coaches, and our job is to push entrepreneurs and business owners to their next steps.

Business planning and business plans are part of that, obviously, therefore we have written a series of free articles on how to write a business plan – of which this page is a part.

We are on a mission to make entrepreneurship fun and accessible, so we provide about 80 percent of our content for free – including a free business plan template to be downloaded down this page.

Still, in case that’s not sufficient, we’ve also created our Business Plan Builder Module , which has been designed to make your life super easy.

Shameless plug: it gives you access to:

• a complete and solid business plan writing work-frame tool
• automated financial tables that take the hassle away (yayyy!)
• two designer-made templates (comprehensive + pitch deck)
• and two hours of tutorial videos recorded with a business coach to explain all the logic you’ll need to master if you plan on writing a business plan that converts.

There’s simply no way to make things easier!

Now, having said that, let’s get going.

As a reminder, what is a business plan about?

To start the discussion, remember that a business plan is about much more than just numbers. As we’ve explained in our article What are Business Plans For? , the role of such a document is to show that beyond a nice business plan pdf nobody really cares about, you have a real business and a plan to get it somewhere.

First, a business plan’s purpose is to help you explain what your project is about. In that sense, the document you need to write should be written as a storytelling instrument, designed, and formulated to tell people a story they will want to read AND remember.

Second, it should give you a way to showcase your main business objectives for the next few years, as well as the strategy you will put into place to get there and deliver on your promises.

Third, your business plan should also provide a market analysis, and a description of your main target segment. That gives the reader a better understanding of your ecosystem’s potential, but more importantly the exercise forces you to look around, open your eyes and do some meaningful research.

You wouldn’t want to drive blindfolded, would you?

Of course, your document should also have a financial component – which is the topic of this article – and there the challenge is to ensure that your financial projections make sense, that they are clear, accurate and easy to follow.

Long things short, investors and bankers expect you to match a very specific business plan outline and format (there’s a code!) and you don’t have much wiggle room there – so be careful in your approach!

What is a Financial Plan & what should it include?

Now, let’s get into the core of this article: financial plans and financial projections. What are they, why are they important – there is a lot to explore.

First things first, what is a financial plan? How important is it in a business plan? And what type of elements is it made of? What are the projected financial statements you need to provide? Oh, and what do we mean by ‘financial projections’ in the first place, by the way?

What is the role of a financial plan in business plan?

A financial plan is the financial part of your business plan. Its purpose is simple: explain to the reader what should be the ins and outs of your project from a financial perspective, and help them see if their own business projections are aligned with yours.

On the one hand, the idea is to put numbers on your project, to make it tangible and show that your vision includes the end and the means.

On the other, it is also to show that you are capable of defending your big idea as well as the projected financials that need to come with it – something that many wannabe entrepreneurs are actually unable to do…

As a side note, and as silly as that might sound, this means that your business plan should include a lot more than just a financial plan and a smart cash flow projection!

That point brings us back to the one we made earlier when we said that a business plan should follow a specific structure (go read that article!), but we mention it again because we want things to be very clear: your business plan should be a matter of storytelling, not just a matter of financial projections!

Typically, we often see accountants work on business plans, and what they produce is rarely enough because they only deliver financial estimates that make no real sense to non-accountants (even less to the entrepreneurs at stake) and leave aside the rest of the topics – particularly the storytelling!

Said differently? The numbers are one aspect of the story, but you still have to come up with the pitch – which is where the rest of the business plan comes in handy.

Make sure to deliver an easy-to-read mix!

Your financial plan must provide your financial projections

To get into the technical part of the discussion, the financial plan in your business plan should include your financial projections, organized in a very formal format.

That makes two distinct points to consider!

On the one hand, you should be able to show with clear numbers what money should come in and when (that’s the income forecasts), for this year but also for the next, the ones after that for three to five years.

On the other, you should also be able to show what money needs to go out to make the business roll. What are the production costs, the fixed and variable expenses, the salaries, and of course the various marketing expenses needed to generate the development you are planning on getting to.

On that point, remember that your cost of client acquisition should also be part of the formalized projections – otherwise your numbers will be flawed (and doomed).

Ultimately, you need to be very clear as to when your new business (or existing business) should break even, as to when should profits be expected, as to when lenders and investors will get their money back, so forth and so on.

It must include specific financial documents people will expect to see

From a very formal perspective, you shouldn’t be trying to make one single projection sheet. Nope! Your readers will expect to see three important financial documents in the financial section of the business plan you will introduce to them.

• A profit and loss statement – also known as your P&L statement, or as an income statement
• A cash flow statement
• And a balance sheet.

First, the P&L table or income statement should show what money is expected to come in or go out, but it should also show if and when the business will make a profit or a loss, year by year, for the next five years.

The sales forecast and the operating expenses should be easy to understand at that stage, and you should also be able to provide your estimated gross profit, your gross margin, as well as your net profit and net margin.

In case you are wondering, your gross profit corresponds to your sales minus your cost of production. Your net profit corresponds to the gross profit minus all the remaining costs.

It’s okay to read that twice…

Not being profitable is also okay, by the way. That’s the game. However, you must be able to explain why you won’t be profitable in a given year, and how you plan on filling the gap in the bank – otherwise your business dies, right?

Second, the cashflow statement should explain your cash flow management strategy and indicate when you will need to fill the bank account in, and why.

For instance, important account receivables could justify a temporary cashflow need, but the gaps left from the previous years should also be visible. Obviously, the funding needs should also be there and aligned with the financial situation of the business.

Third, the balance sheet is a summary of the previous two tables, except that it shows the various elements in terms of assets or liabilities. For instance, the account receivables we mentioned just before would be an asset (because some money is owed to the business) while account payables would be a liability (since the business owes money to someone else).

Does all this sound a little complex?

That’s because it is.

No need to worry, though. We have you covered and will provide all the templates and tools you need further below. For now, just keep reading.

So, what’s the financial plan in a business plan for?

To conclude, the financial plan in business plan should act as a financial cartography of what you have in mind for that business of yours.

• The financial plan should illustrate the plan you have for the business in terms of numbers
• It should include precise financial projections of what you think can be achieved
• It should clearly illustrate your cashflow management strategy
• And it should summarize the information clearly
• All of this through highly standardized tables financiers will understand very easily

What documents should a financial business plan contain?

Getting your financial business plan right is a lot simpler than it seems.

Now, when you’re pitching that business of yours to potential partners, investors or lenders, you’ll need to provide them with a series of financial statements.

Yet, how to produce those documents without jumping into a living nightmare? How to come up with cash flow projections that make sense instead of being purely random?

Word of caution: financial planning for businesses is typically complex.

The question is not only fair, but it is also super-duper common and literally blocks tons of entrepreneurs and small business owners on a daily basis.

Because financial planning for businesses is typically complex.

Because most people aren’t comfortable with numbers.

And because the vast majority of small business owners simply don’t know where to start.

That’s probably why you were looking for either a financial plan pdf template or an example of financial plan for small business owners a few minutes ago, isn’t it?

Typically, here is what happens.

Some try and do their best, but then they don’t feel confident with pitching and defending their financial analysis, so they keep delaying and nothing happens.

Others end up having recourse to external help, even though external business plan consultants usually aren’t a good idea at that stage.

And the rest gives up.

That’s a shame, especially if consider that financial planning for a small business and building a financial plan for a business plan are only a matter of having access to the right method and tools!

Yes, a big (big) part of the work is to guestimate, but the rest is about trusting the process with the right logic, method and tools – and there’s nothing you can’t manage here.

Especially with the right tools!

How to build your financial forecasts?

Now that you understand the different sections of a financial plan, let us talk about how to build financial forecasting.

In plain English, this part of the exercise is where you’ll estimate your company’s income and expenses for the next few years. Therefore, you should keep a few things in mind.

One, you need to have a good understanding of your business in order to create realistic forecasts.

Sounds silly? Maybe, but this is a mistake people make way too much, and when they fail at justifying their financial projections, everything else goes down.

Two, you absolutely want to make sure that your projections can explore various trends, i.e. your pessimistic, optimistic, and most likely scenarios.

• If everything goes extremely well, we’ll get there.
• If everything goes wrong, we’ll get there.
• But… we should reasonably expect to achieve this and that if we obtain the funding we need…

Can you see the idea?

Be sure to also factor in any potential changes or risks that could affect your business.

For example, if you’re expecting a new competitor to enter the market, you’ll need to account for that in your projections. By being realistic and accounting for as many variables as possible, you’ll give yourself the best chance of success so give it some thought!

Pragmatically, how do I come up with reasonable financial forecasts for my business plan?

It’s all a question of common sense, really.

• How much do you plan on selling?
• What are your short, medium and long term financial goals?
• What would be the cost of production?
• What margin does that leave you with?
• What fixed costs would you expect?
• How about variable costs?
• Have you included transaction fees and credit card fees in your costs?
• What is the cost of insurance premiums?
• Will there be any debt to repay?
• What type of budget do you need for marketing purposes?
• What is the cost of acquisition of the client?
• What operational margin does it leave before the taxman comes in?
• What kind of money do you need to meet your long term goals?
• Have you planned for any emergency fund at all?

Right, that’s a long list. But! Answering those questions should give you a strong basis to build financial projections that make sense, because that’s literally how you would read your income statement in the end.

If you were trying to translate boring numbers into a meaningful story, that’s exactly where you would start!

Again, we have you covered with all this.

If you are looking for a concrete and practical financial plan example, make sure to download our business plan template down the page. It will give you the basic pro forma financials you’ll need.

If you need to understand the logic behind the template and would rather use an automated spreadsheet to get everything done, however, then it’s time to stop struggling.

The Impactified Business Plan Builder will provide everything you need: the automated tables and two hours of business coaching videos designed to explain all the logic you’ll need – what are you waiting for?

Why Are Financial Projections so Important in the end?

So, overall, why is creating financial projections so important? Are there various types of financial projections anyway? There are several things to keep in mind here.

First, your financial projections are important because they give bankers and investors the numbers they need (to make an informed decision) in a format they expect to see.

Second, your projections show whether your strategy is aligned with the means at your disposal to achieve it and whether you are aware of the financial engineering required to make your business roll.

Third, and in a related way, forecasts will give you, as the entrepreneur in charge, an opportunity to show if you understand the business for real (or if someone else not present during the discussion wrote the plan for you).

All of these documents are important, but you (nobody else!) will need to be able to tell a story around them.

Investors aren’t just looking for numbers! They invest in teams and people before investing in projects, so they want to know that you understand your business and that you have a plan for the future!

So, make sure your financial projections are accurate and be prepared to answer any questions investors have about them.

Understanding the investment process

To understand how to handle the exercise properly, understanding the investment and funding process in general is important.

What do bankers and investors expect when they are looking at a business plan? How do they decide whether to invest or not? And how do the financial projections help them make that decision?

In short, investors are looking for a return on their investment. So, they want to know what they can expect to earn from their investment, and how that compares to the risks they’re taking.

Your projected income statement is important there, but so are your cashflow projections!

Your financial estimates should therefore show how your business will grow and what profits you’ll generate, both in the short-term and long-term. This information will help investors determine whether or not your business is a good investment.

In contrast, bankers have a much lower risk tolerance and are not interested in funding you – they lend money to those who have money to repay the debt (or some assets to engage as collateral in case something goes wrong). Hence, what they look for is not a high return on investment based on risk, but a repayment capacity based on predictability and wise financial management.

Said differently? You need to create financial projections that make sense and adapt your financial pitch to your audience accordingly.

Show investors that there is a great opportunity to make money at a later stage and show bankers you will be able to start repaying as soon as possible.

Again, if you need to explore the question of investors’ mindsets, we elaborate on that in our video module – it’s time to give it a try!

Business valuation and exit thinking

Last but not least, understanding the investment process means that you also need to start thinking in terms of valuation and exit.

Or, said differently, the financial plan in your business plan must lead you to think about what your business will be worth a few years from now, and about how you will be able to make money (for you and your investment partners) by selling it.

On the one hand, exit thinking relates to the idea that investors invest in a business with the expectation that the business will raise more money later on, at which stage a larger investor will come in and buy the existing investors out.

To make your investors some money, therefore, you have to start thinking in terms of exiting the business at some point – which means progressively turning the business into an asset that works on its own, for you and as much as possible without you.

This mindset is absolutely key – think about it!

On the other hand, the discussion leads us to think in terms of business valuation – understand, how much is the business worth, and how much could it be sold for.

That topic is probably getting too technical for this article’s discussion, so we’ll explore it in another post.

Meanwhile, make sure to listen to the exit & valuation video in The Business Plan Builder module . We explain all this and even go as far as giving you an automated valuation calculator in the financial tables part of the tool – again, you have no excuse!

Avoiding the typical mistakes small businesses make with financial planning

To finish with the discussion, what should you keep in mind if you wanted to turn your financial plan into an asset that generates money rather than frustration?

Like it or not, but small business financial planning isn’t an intuitive thing and people tend to make very typical mistakes you should avoid at all costs!

Know your business

First piece of advice, you really (really, really) want to know your business from every angle.

When you are writing the financial plan in your business plan, it’s important to remember that your projections should represent an estimate of future performance. That’s how investors and lenders will read your numbers anyway.

So, your financial projections and forecasts should be based on realistic assumptions and calculations that you should always be prepared to adjust as needed.

In order to make accurate projections, it is therefore extremely important to have a good understanding of your business and the industry it operates in. You should also consult with industry experts and other professionals who can help you make informed decisions about your business.

Do the exercise yourself!

When you’re writing your financial plan, it’s important to avoid making common mistakes. One of the most common errors is underestimating how much money your business will need to operate.

Another is to rely on business plan consultants to write your financial projections without being able to understand the numbers yourself. This can lead to mistakes if the numbers are incorrect, and it can lead to embarrassing ahem! moments if you can’t explain how this or that number ended up in the document.

The best way to ensure accuracy is to do the exercise yourself with the right tools in hand and the brainstorming support of someone you trust to challenge your thoughts and conclusions.

This can be done with your acting CFO or close financial advisor if you have one, or with a fellow entrepreneur if anyone around you has the right mindset to dig into the discussion with you.

Alternatively, hiring a business coach is another way to brainstorm and challenge yourself – follow the link to find out more about that.

Don’t be a tourist. That’s stupid.

Third piece of advice: don’t enter into a discussion with a potential partner as a tourist – this is stupid, and that could very well kill you.

We have seen countless entrepreneurs walk into a room (let alone into a large startup event) saying that they were raising money for their startup. Yet, more often than not, their financial targets are not set or beyond approximative, which means they can’t explain why they need money and how they are going to spend it.

When you do that, the only thing you do is be stupid and make sure everyone knows about it.

First, because they won’t take you seriously. Would you invest money into someone who can’t tell you how they’ll use it and with what return on investment expectations?

And second, because the people you talk to will most likely ask you to come back to them once you have more information to provide. Which either means “don’t come back before six months to a year” or “please don’t come back at all, I have better things to do with my time and more competent people to talk to”.

Don’t be a tourist or you’ll just burn yourself. That’s stupid.

Turn your numbers into a story

The fourth piece of advice is going to be a repeat from earlier, but it’s important so let’s be redundant.

Now that you’ve written your financial projections, it’s time to go beyond the numbers and start telling your business story. The financial plan in your business plan is a great place to start but remember that it’s just one part of your overall pitch.

You’ll also need to be ready to pitch your idea, product, or service, and be ready to defend your financial plan against questions from investors or lenders.

Think holistically and build a story people will want to listen to, remember and act on. Period!

TL;DR: Get your financial projections right!

Now that you understand the different components of a financial plan, it’s time to learn how to write it. The key to writing a good financial plan is to be realistic. Don’t make assumptions that are unrealistic or impossible to achieve.

Start by estimating your sales and expenses for the first year of business. Be as specific as possible, and remember to include both fixed and variable costs. From there, you can create a cash flow statement that shows how your business will generate and spend money over time.

The goal of a financial plan is to paint a realistic picture of your business’s financial future. So make sure to update your plan as your business changes and grows. With careful planning and accurate numbers, you can ensure that your business will be successful for years to come.

What should your business plan financial plan include?

• A profit and loss statement – also known as your P&L statement, or as an income statement
• A cash flow statement showing if your business plan financial projections are realistic

What is the purpose of your business plan’s financial projections?

• To how the plan you have for the business in terms of numbers
• To show a financial overview of what you think can be achieved, by when, with what means
• To show you have a cashflow management strategy that makes sense
• To show you understand the standardized expectations and know how to play by the book
• To show that, overall, your business proposal makes sense whatever the angle!

Need a reliable template and video tutorial to get your financial business plan & financial projections right?

It’s built around over 2 hours of explanatory videos and comes with everything you’ll need to:

• Figure out what you need to figure out – powerful, uh?
• Understand the business plan code!
• Write a top business plan – with just the right amount of words and pages!
• Build your financial estimates – with an automated financial projections template excel spreadsheet!
• Create a visually appealing pitch deck people will want to read thanks to our designer-made templates!

If you want to stop wasting your time, this is THE most simple business plan template, and you can’t afford to miss it!

Wanna’ start with something free? Our free business plan template is also here to help !

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Topics related to Financial Projections: How to write the financial plan in business plan:

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More Insights on Business Plan Writing

Hey coach! I’m writing a business plan and I’m wondering how to build the financial projections part of the document. What’s the importance of financial projections exactly – I mean, isn’t it absolute BS? How do I write the financial plan in business plan, and even more importantly, how can I make sense of all those messy tables? Can you help me understand this? Thanks in advance!

Do I Need a Business Plan Consultant? No, You Don’t!

Hey there Coach! I’m a small business owner and I need to find some support with my business plan. People suggested that I find a business plan consultant near me, but that’s a big cost and I’m not too sure about what to expect from that. What’s your opinion about business plan consultants in general? Is there any alternative you would highly recommend? Thanks!

How Much Does a Business Plan Cost? Just Under $100!

Hey coach! I was wondering – how much does a business plan cost? I need one, and I’m thinking about having it written for me, so I’d love your insights. Also, I’ve heard business plan writers cost a lot of money, so I’m interested if you have tips for writing a low-cost business plan! Thanks!

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Free Financial Projection and Forecasting Templates

By Andy Marker | January 3, 2024

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We’ve collected the top free financial projection and forecasting templates. These templates enable business owners, CFOs, accountants, and financial analysts to plan future growth, manage cash flow, attract investors, and make informed decisions.  On this page, you'll find many helpful, free, customizable financial projection and forecasting templates, including a  1 2-month financial projection template , a  startup financial projection template , a  3-year financial projection template , and a  small business financial forecast template , among others. You’ll also find details on the  elements in a financial projection template ,  types of financial projection and forecasting templates , and  related financial templates .

Simple Financial Projection Template

Download a Sample Simple Financial Projection Template for 

Excel | Google Sheets  

Download a Blank Simple Financial Projection Template for 

Excel | Google Sheets    

Small business owners and new entrepreneurs are the ideal users for this simple financial projection template. Just input your expected revenues and expenses. This template stands out due to its ease of use and focus on basic, straightforward financial planning, making it perfect for small-scale or early-stage businesses. Available with or without sample text, this tool offers clear financial oversight, better budget management, and informed decision-making regarding future business growth. 

Looking for help with your business plan? Check out these  free financial templates for a business plan to streamline the process of organizing your business's financial information and presenting it effectively to stakeholders.

Financial Forecast Template

Download a Sample Financial Forecast Template for 

Download a Blank Financial Forecast Template for 

This template is perfect for businesses that require a detailed and all-encompassing forecast. Users can input various financial data, such as projected revenues, costs, and market trends, to generate a complete financial outlook. Available with or without example text, this template gives you a deeper understanding of your business's financial trajectory, aiding in strategic decision-making and long-term financial stability. 

These  free cash-flow forecast templates help you predict your business’s future cash inflows and outflows, allowing you to manage liquidity and optimize financial planning.

12-Month Financial Projection Template

Download a Sample 12-Month Financial Projection Template for 

Download a Blank 12-Month Financial Projection Template for 

Use this 12-month financial projection template for better cash-flow management, more accurate budgeting, and enhanced readiness for short-term financial challenges and opportunities. Input estimated monthly revenues and expenses, tracking financial performance over the course of a year. Available with or without sample text, this template is ideal for business owners who need to focus on short-term financial planning. This tool allows you to respond quickly to market shifts and plan effectively for the business's crucial first year. 

Download  free sales forecasting templates to help your business predict future sales, enabling better inventory management, resource planning, and decision-making.

Startup Financial Projection Template

Download a Sample Startup Financial Projection Template for 

Download a Blank Startup Financial Projection Template for 

This dynamic startup financial projection template is ideal for startup founders and entrepreneurs, as it's designed specifically for the unique needs of startups. Available with or without example text, this template focuses on clearly outlining a startup's initial financial trajectory, an essential component for attracting investors. Users can input projected revenues, startup costs, and funding sources to create a comprehensive financial forecast.

3-Year Financial Projection Template

Download a Sample 3-Year Financial Projection Template for 

Download a Blank 3-Year Financial Projection Template for 

This three-year financial projection template is particularly useful for business strategists and financial planners who are looking for a medium-term financial planning tool. Input data such as projected revenues, expenses, and growth rates for the next three years. Available with or without sample text, this template lets you anticipate financial challenges and opportunities in the medium term, aiding in strategic decision-making and ensuring sustained business growth.

5-Year Financial Forecasting Template

Download a Sample 5-Year Financial Forecasting Template for 

Download a Blank 5-Year Financial Forecasting Template for 

CFOs and long-term business planners can use this five-year financial forecasting template to get a clear, long-range financial vision. Available with or without example text, this template allows you to plan strategically and invest wisely, preparing your business for future market developments and opportunities. This unique tool offers an extensive outlook for your business’s financial strategy. Simply input detailed financial data spanning five years, including revenue projections, investment plans, and expected market growth. Visually engaging bar charts of key metrics help turn data into engaging narratives.

Small Business Financial Forecast Template

Download a Sample Small Business Financial Forecast Template for 

Download a Blank Small Business Financial Forecast Template for 

Excel | Google Sheets 

The small business financial forecast template is tailored specifically for the scale and specific requirements of small enterprises. Business owners and financial managers can simply input data such as projected sales or expenses. Available with or without sample text, this tool offers the ability to do the following: envision straightforward financial planning; anticipate future financial needs and challenges; make informed decisions; and steer the business toward steady growth.

Elements in a Financial Projection Template

The elements in a financial projection template include future sales, costs, profits, and cash flow. This template illustrates expected receivables, payables, and break-even dates. This tool helps you plan for your business's financial future and growth.   

Here are the standard elements in a financial projection template:   

• Revenue Projection: This estimates future income from various sources over a specific period.
• Expense Forecast: This predicts future costs, including both fixed and variable expenses.
• Profit and Loss Forecast:  This projects the profit or loss by subtracting projected expenses from projected revenues.
• Cash-Flow Projection: This assesses the inflows and outflows of cash, indicating liquidity over time.
• Balance Sheet Projection: This predicts the future financial position, showing assets, liabilities, and equity.
• Break-Even Analysis: This calculates the point at which total revenues equal total costs.
• Capital Expenditure Forecast: This estimates future spending on fixed assets such as equipment or property.
• Debt Repayment Plan: This outlines the schedule for paying back any borrowed funds.
• Sales Forecast:  This predicts future sales volume, often broken down by product or service.
• Gross Margin Analysis:  This looks at the difference between revenue and cost of goods sold.

Types of Financial Projection and Forecasting Templates

There are many types of financial projection and forecasting templates: basic templates for small businesses; detailed ones for big companies; special ones for startup businesses; and others. There are also sales forecasts, cash-flow estimates, and profit and loss projections. 

In addition, financial projection and forecasting templates include long-term planning templates, break-even analyses, budget forecasts, and templates made for specific industries such as retail or manufacturing. 

Each template serves different financial planning needs. Determine which one best suits your requirements based on the scale of your business, the complexity of its financial structure, and the specific department that you want to analyze.

Here's a list of the top types of financial projection and forecasting templates:  

• Basic Financial Projection Template: Ideal for small businesses or startups, this template provides a straightforward approach to forecasting revenue, expenses, and cash flow.
• Detailed Financial Projection Template: Best for larger businesses or those with complex financial structures, this template offers in-depth projections, including balance sheets, income statements, and cash-flow statements.
• Startup Financial Projection Template: Tailored for startups, this template focuses on funding requirements and early-stage revenue forecasts, both crucial for attracting investors and planning initial operations. 
• Sales Forecasting Template:  Used by sales and marketing teams to predict future sales, this template helps you set targets and plan marketing strategies. 
• Cash-Flow Forecast Template: Essential for financial managers who need to monitor the liquidity of the business, this template projects cash inflows and outflows over a period. 
• Profit and Loss Forecast Template (P&L):  Useful for business owners and financial officers who need to anticipate profit margins, this template enables you to forecast revenues and expenses.  
• Three-Year / Five-Year Financial Projection Template: Suitable for long-term business planning, these templates provide a broader view of your company’s financial future, improving your development strategy and investor presentations. 
• Break-Even Analysis Template:  Used by business strategists and financial analysts, this template helps you determine when your business will become profitable. 
• Budget Forecasting Template:  Designed for budget managers, this template uses historical financial data to help you plan your future spending. 
• Sector-Specific Financial Projection Template:  Designed for specific industries (such as retail or manufacturing), these templates take into account industry-specific factors and benchmarks.

Related Financial Templates

Check out this list of free financial templates related to financial projections and forecasting. You'll find templates for budgeting, tracking profits and losses, planning your finances, and more. These tools help keep your company’s money matters organized and clear.

Free Project Budget Templates

Use one of these  project budget templates to maintain control over project finances, ensuring costs stay aligned with the allocated budget and improving overall financial management.

Free Monthly Budget Templates

Use one of these  monthly budget templates to effectively track and manage your business’s income and expenses, helping you plan financially and save money.

Free Expense Report Templates

Use one of these  expense report templates to systematically track and document all business-related expenditures, ensuring accurate reimbursement and efficient financial record-keeping.

Free Balance Sheet Templates

Use one of these  balance sheet templates to summarize your company's financial position at a given time.

Free Cash-Flow Forecast Templates

Use one of these  cash-flow forecast templates to predict future cash inflows and outflows, helping you manage liquidity and make informed financial decisions.

Free Cash-Flow Statement Templates

Use one of these  cash-flow statement templates to track the movement of cash in and out of your business, so you can assess your company’s level of liquidity and financial stability.

Free Discounted Cash-Flow (DCF) Templates

Use one of these  discounted cash-flow (DCF) templates to evaluate the profitability of investments or projects by calculating their present value based on future cash flows.

Free Financial Dashboard Templates

Use one of these  financial dashboard templates to get an at-a-glance view of key financial metrics, so you can make decisions quickly and manage finances effectively.

Related Customer Stories

Free financial planning templates.

Use one of these  financial planning templates to strategically organize and forecast future finances, helping you set realistic financial goals and ensure long-term business growth.

Free Profit and Loss (P&L) Templates

Use one of these  profit and loss (P&L) templates to systematically track income and expenses, giving you a clear picture of your company's profitability over a specific period.

Free Billing and Invoice Templates

Use one of these  billing and invoice templates to streamline the invoicing process and ensure that you bill clients accurately and professionally for services or products.

Plan and Manage Your Company’s Financial Future with Financial Projection and Forecasting Templates from Smartsheet

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The Smartsheet platform makes it easy to plan, capture, manage, and report on work from anywhere, helping your team be more effective and get more done. Report on key metrics and get real-time visibility into work as it happens with roll-up reports, dashboards, and automated workflows built to keep your team connected and informed. 

When teams have clarity into the work getting done, there’s no telling how much more they can accomplish in the same amount of time.  Try Smartsheet for free, today.

Discover why over 90% of Fortune 100 companies trust Smartsheet to get work done.

Business Plan Financial Projections Template

Identify financial requirements and objectives, draft projected income statement, detail projected balance sheet, calculate projected cash flow statement, apply appropriate financial ratios analysis.

• 1 Current Ratio
• 2 Gross Profit Margin
• 3 Return on Investment
• 4 Debt-to-Equity Ratio
• 5 Inventory Turnover

Adjust for inflation rate predictions

Consider the impact of business growth on financial projections, check cost assumptions for products and services, investigate potential risks and variables in the financial projection, approval: financial analyst for initial review.

• Draft projected income statement Will be submitted
• Detail projected balance sheet Will be submitted
• Calculate projected cash flow statement Will be submitted
• Apply appropriate financial ratios analysis Will be submitted
• Adjust for inflation rate predictions Will be submitted
• Consider the impact of business growth on financial projections Will be submitted
• Check cost assumptions for products and services Will be submitted
• Investigate potential risks and variables in the financial projection Will be submitted

Incorporate feedback and modify financial projections accordingly

Cross-check with industry standards and competitor analysis, analyse break-even point and profitability metrics, compile final draft of financial projections, approval: ceo review and validation of final draft.

• Incorporate feedback and modify financial projections accordingly Will be submitted
• Cross-check with industry standards and competitor analysis Will be submitted
• Analyse break-even point and profitability metrics Will be submitted
• Compile final draft of financial projections Will be submitted

Send financial projections for external auditing

Conduct scenario analysis for best-case, worst-case, and most likely outcomes, discuss and finalize plan with key stakeholders, approval: board of directors.

• Send financial projections for external auditing Will be submitted
• Conduct scenario analysis for best-case, worst-case, and most likely outcomes Will be submitted
• Discuss and finalize plan with key stakeholders Will be submitted

Implement financial projections into overall business plan

Take control of your workflows today., more templates like this.

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Seeking Clues to Wells Fargo (WFC) Q1 Earnings? A Peek Into Wall Street Projections for Key Metrics

Analysts on Wall Street project that Wells Fargo ( WFC Quick Quote WFC - Free Report ) will announce quarterly earnings of $1.08 per share in its forthcoming report, representing a decline of 12.2% year over year. Revenues are projected to reach $20.16 billion, declining 2.7% from the same quarter last year.

Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been adjusted upward by 0.7% to its current level. This demonstrates the covering analysts' collective reassessment of their initial projections during this period.

Before a company announces its earnings, it is essential to take into account any changes made to earnings estimates. This is a valuable factor in predicting the potential reactions of investors toward the stock. Empirical research has consistently shown a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and the short-term price performance of a stock.

While investors typically use consensus earnings and revenue estimates as indicators of quarterly business performance, exploring analysts' projections for specific key metrics can offer valuable insights.

That said, let's delve into the average estimates of some Wells Fargo metrics that Wall Street analysts commonly model and monitor.

Based on the collective assessment of analysts, 'Average Balance - Total earning assets' should arrive at $1,754.42 billion. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of $1,700.70 billion.

The consensus among analysts is that 'Return on average equity (ROE)' will reach 9.4%. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 11.7%.

According to the collective judgment of analysts, 'Book value Per common share' should come in at $46.98. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported $43.02 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Analysts predict that the 'Net interest margin on a taxable-equivalent basis' will reach 2.8%. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 3.2%.

It is projected by analysts that the 'Efficiency Ratio' will reach 67.1%. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 66% in the same quarter of the previous year.

Analysts' assessment points toward 'Total nonperforming assets' reaching $8.88 billion. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of $6.14 billion.

Analysts expect 'Total net loan charge-offs' to come in at $1.19 billion. Compared to the present estimate, the company reported $604 million in the same quarter last year.

The collective assessment of analysts points to an estimated 'Total nonaccrual loans' of $8.80 billion. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported $6.01 billion in the same quarter of the previous year.

Analysts forecast 'Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1)' to reach 11.2%. Compared to the present estimate, the company reported 10.8% in the same quarter last year.

The combined assessment of analysts suggests that 'Tier 1 Leverage Ratio' will likely reach 8.4%. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 8.4%.

The average prediction of analysts places 'Tier 1 Capital Ratio' at 12.6%. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 12.3% in the same quarter of the previous year.

The consensus estimate for 'Total Noninterest Income' stands at $7.81 billion. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported $7.39 billion in the same quarter of the previous year. View all Key Company Metrics for Wells Fargo here>>> Shares of Wells Fargo have experienced a change of +1.2% in the past month compared to the +1.7% move of the Zacks S&P 500 composite. With a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), WFC is expected to mirror the overall market performance in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>

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Sri Lanka Development Update 2024

Thilina Kaluthotage

The Sri Lanka Development Update (SLDU) has two main aims. First, it reports on key developments over the past 12 months in Sri Lanka’s economy, places these in longer term and global contexts, and updates the outlook for Sri Lanka’s economy. Second, the SLDU provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, think tanks, non-governmental organizations and the community of analysts and professionals interested in Sri Lanka’s evolving economy.

Click here to download the latest Sri Lanka Development Update (April 2024).

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

The economy contracted by 2.3 percent in 2023, despite growth in third and fourth quarters (1.6 and 4.5 percent, respectively) following six quarters of contraction. This was driven by shrinking construction and mining, financial and IT services, and textile manufacturing, amid weak demand, tight private credit, and shortages of inputs, and was partly offset by growth in transport, accommodation, food, and beverage services, resulting from a rebound in tourism. Inflation remained benign, after declining to single-digit levels in July 2023, supported by currency appreciation and improved supply. However, with the recent spike in food prices and pass-through of fuel and utility prices, headline inflation as measured by the Colombo Consumer Price Index increased to 5.9 percent in February 2024. Labor force participation declined (from 49.8 to 48.8 percent between 2022 and third quarter of 2023), especially in urban areas. Households have adopted risky coping strategies to deal with lower incomes and price pressures, including using savings, taking on more debt, and limiting their diets. Food insecurity rose during the second-half of 2023, with 24 percent of households being food insecure.

After almost two years of monetary tightening, the central bank cut policy rates by 650 basis points between June and November 2023. Combined with improvements in liquidity, this resulted in a sharp decline in the government’s cost of domestic borrowing. While growth rates remain negative, private sector credit has been recovering monthly since June 2023.

In 2023, the current account recorded a surplus for the first time since 1977, as remittances and tourism rebounded sharply, and imports remained subdued. The continued external debt service suspension, inflows from development partners, large purchases of foreign exchange, and postponed repayments on existing credit lines have helped build usable official reserves to about 2 months of imports (US$3.1 billion by end-February 2024, compared to US$500 million in December 2022). The Rupee appreciated by 10.8 percent against the US Dollar in 2023.

Despite the primary balance registering a surplus—due to a significant increase in revenue and the repayment of an on-lent amount by an State-Owned Enterprise (SOE), a sharp rise in interest payments is estimated to have contributed to a high overall fiscal deficit in 2023. Interest payments absorbed approximately three-fourths of revenue collected.

In 2022, Sri Lanka plunged into a severe economic crisis, as longstanding structural weaknesses were exacerbated by exogenous shocks and policy mistakes. After losing access to international financial markets in 2020, official reserves dropped precipitously, and the forex liquidity constraint led to severe shortages of essential goods. The country announced an external debt service suspension in April 2022, pending debt restructuring. The economy contracted by 9.5 percent in total during 2022 and 2023, and public and publicly guaranteed debt ballooned to 119.2 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2022 amid high inflation (46.4 percent, annual average in 2022) and a sharp currency depreciation (81.2 percent, 2022). Food insecurity and malnutrition increased, poverty doubled, and inequality widened. Approximately 60 percent of households experienced a decline in income due to reduced work hours or job losses. The implementation of recent structural reforms, including cost-reflective utility pricing and new revenue measures, helped macroeconomic stability but strained household budgets. Domestic debt restructuring was completed in September 2023, while negotiations with external creditors are progressing. In March 2024, a Staff Level Agreement was reached between the authorities and International Monetary Fund staff on the second review of the Extended Fund Facility program. Key reforms focusing on debt, fiscal management, trade, investment, and SOEs continue to advance.

Growth prospects depend on progress with debt restructuring and the continued implementation of structural reforms. The primarily revenue-based fiscal adjustment is, however, likely to further reduce disposable incomes, weaken demand, and weigh down growth in the short-term. The modest recovery will be insufficient to reverse welfare losses experienced during the crisis, and poverty is estimated to remain above 22 percent until 2026.

Inflation is likely to rise moderately in the near-term, due to new revenue measures and the waning of favorable base effects, and remain benign in the medium-term as demand continues to be subdued. Further increases could reverse the marginal poverty reduction (1.1 percentage points) expected in 2024.

The current account is projected to remain in surplus, with subdued import growth and gradual recovery in tourism and remittances. Although the primary deficit is expected to decline further, the overall fiscal balance will remain high in 2024 due to the large interest bill. Debt restructuring and continued fiscal consolidation are projected to reduce the overall fiscal balance in the medium term.

While recent macroeconomic performance has been better than expected, downside risks remain high, given a narrow path to recovery and limited buffers. These risks include a protracted or insufficiently deep debt restructuring, reform fatigue or reversal following the elections, and a weaker recovery linked to scarring effects from the crisis. With declining household expenditure on health and education, concerns over the impact on future human capital remain high. Financial sector risks need to be carefully monitored as elevated nonperforming loans and significant exposure to the sovereign continue to hinder financial sector stability and impede credit intermediation. On the upside, a strong and sustained implementation of the structural reform program, could boost confidence and attract fresh capital inflows.

Last Updated: Apr 02, 2024