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9 Trends That Will Shape Work in 2024 and Beyond

• Emily Rose McRae,
• Peter Aykens,
• Kaelyn Lowmaster,
• Jonah Shepp

Looking ahead at a year of continued disruption, employers who successfully navigate these trends will be able to create a competitive advantage.

In 2023, organizations continued to face significant challenges, from inflation to geopolitical turmoil to controversy over DEI and return-to-work policies — and 2024 promises more disruption. Gartner researchers have identified nine key trends, from new and creative employee benefits to the collapse of traditional career paths, that will impact work this year. Employers who successfully navigate these will retain top talent and secure a competitive advantage for themselves.

In 2023, business leaders and organizations continued to contend with major shifts affecting the workplace, including the pressure of inflation on both employer and employee budgets, the emergence of generative AI (GenAI) , geopolitical turmoil, a series of high-profile labor strikes , increased tension over return-to-office (RTO) mandates , a shifting legal and societal landscape for DEI initiatives, the increased impact of climate change , and more.

• Emily Rose McRae is a senior director analyst covering the future of work and workforce transformation, and she leads the talent research initiative for executive leaders. Emily Rose works across all issues related to the future of work, including emerging technologies and their impact on work and the workforce, new employment models, and creating an enterprise-wide future of work strategy.
• Peter Aykens is a distinguished vice president and chief of research for the Gartner HR practice. He is responsible for setting the practice’s research agenda and strategy to address the mission critical priorities of HR leaders, including leadership, talent management, recruiting, diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI), total rewards, learning and development, and HR tech.
• Kaelyn Lowmaster is a director of research in the Gartner HR Practice. She focuses on the Future of Work including all areas of future strategy development, with a core emphasis on the impact of emerging technology on work and the workforce.
• Jonah Shepp is a senior principal, research in the Gartner HR practice. He edits the Gartner  HR Leaders Monthly  journal, covering HR best practices on topics ranging from talent acquisition and leadership to total rewards and the future of work. An accomplished writer and editor, his work has appeared in numerous publications, including  New York   Magazine ,  Politico   Magazine ,  GQ , and  Slate .

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The Future of Work

• Welcome to Harvard
• Climate Solutions

The global pandemic changed the way we work and how our workplaces function. Our experts investigate what changes may be here to stay and what else to expect in the future.

The future is calling

Work is beginning to look very different across all fields and around the globe.

Will we all go back? Will they ever be the same?

What can we learn from the pandemic?

Internships

How can we make them more equitable?

What will digital health care look like?

Can technology help farmers connect to their customers?

Is the open office a thing of the past?

Which skills have staying power in this rapidly changing market?

Global talent

How do you attract talent from around the world?

Legal professionals

Will online litigation help our clogged courts?

What is “The Great Resignation”?

Harvard economist Lawrence Katz explains some of the factors that led to the highest quit rate in US history.

Well-being at work

Business owners, employees, and researchers are looking at ways to make workplaces safer and healthier.

Predictable scheduling

Requiring more notice in scheduling for hourly workers results in more predictable shifts and increased stability for workers, which also leads to improvements in worker well-being, sleep quality, and economic security.

Air quality

The air quality in an office can have significant impacts on employees’ cognitive function, including response times and ability to focus, and it may also affect their productivity, according to new research.

Worker safety and health

COVID-19 forced companies to act quickly and decisively to keep workers safe, and employers have had to adapt new business processes and address existing structures that are lacking.

Flexibility

While working from home, employees have enjoyed an unprecedented sense of agency and autonomy. Contrary to some expectations—but consistent with years of research—that flexibility has actually spurred worker productivity to improve.

How can AI help you?

AI and automation are already streamlining some industries, but we still don’t understand all of the benefits and dangers.

AI is already essential in health care, banking, retail, and manufacturing, but its ethical implications are still being unpacked. Learn more

Human accountability and machine transparency are necessary in the development of artificial intelligence. Learn more

Barbara Grosz has spent her career working to make human-computer interactions as fluent as human-to-human interaction. Learn more

Meet the School of Engineering alum working to design better robot and AI collaborators by enabling machines to more effectively explain their behavior to humans. Learn more

How does the field of medicine move forward to harness the promise of AI? How does it eliminate the perils posed by its suboptimal design or inappropriate use? Learn more

Artificial intelligence may seem objective, but it’s subject to human biases. Learn more

Artificial intelligence in medicine may foster more personalized treatment, increase access to care, and cut red tape, but risks still abound. Learn more

Harvard’s AI+Art project aims to get people thinking about how artificial intelligence may impact our lives in the future. Learn more

Krzysztof Gajos, Gordon McKay Professor of Computer Science answers the question: When will a robot write a novel? Learn more

For a broader view on workplace innovations, explore the work of our experts from a variety of institutes and centers including:

• The Project on Workforce
• GrowthPolicy
• Harvard i-lab
• Center for Work, Health, & Well-being
• Corporate Responsibility Initiative
• Labor and Worklife Program
• Working Knowledge
• The Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness

Harvard Business School

Managing the future of work

Co-chaired by William R. Kerr and Joseph B. Fuller, this project explores solutions and adaptations to rapid technological change, shifting global product and labor markets, evolving regulatory regimes, outsourcing, and the fast emergence of the gig economy.

Learn more from the Business School

Explore the podcast

Harvard Kennedy School

Reimagine the world of work

Experts investigate ways to help workers gain new skills, get companies to drop outdated practices, and other forward thinking ideas.

Learn more from the Kennedy School

Graduate School of Education

Reshaping work

Experts discuss how the pandemic is altering jobs and careers and how education can respond.

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Do You Tip More or Less Often Than the Average American?

Compare your tipping habits with those of the overall public by visiting Tipping Point, the small town with a big-city feel.

The varied landscape of minimum wages and tip credits in the U.S.

While service quality is the main driver of Americans’ tipping decisions, about three-in-ten U.S. adults also cite workers’ pay before tips as a major factor they consider.

Americans who have worked for tips themselves are usually more likely to leave one

43% of U.S. adults say they have ever personally worked in a job where they received tips. Roughly six-in-ten (57%) have not had this experience.

Tipping Culture in America: Public Sees a Changed Landscape

72% of U.S. adults say tipping is expected in more places today than it was five years ago. But even as Americans say they’re being asked to tip more often, only about a third say it’s extremely or very easy to know whether (34%) or how much (33%) to tip for various services.

Most Americans haven’t used ChatGPT; few think it will have a major impact on their job

19% of employed U.S. adults who have heard of ChatGPT think chatbots will have a major impact on their job.

Which U.S. Workers Are More Exposed to AI on Their Jobs?

In 2022, 19% of American workers were in jobs that are the most exposed to artificial intelligence, in which the most important activities may be either replaced or assisted by AI. Women, Asian, college-educated and higher-paid workers have more exposure to AI, but workers in the most exposed industries are more likely to say AI will help more than hurt them personally.

Most Americans say racial bias is a problem in the workplace. Can AI help?

Most Americans say racial and ethnic bias in hiring practices and performance evaluations is a problem, but they differ over how big of a problem it is.

AI in Hiring and Evaluating Workers: What Americans Think

62% of Americans believe artificial intelligence will have a major impact on jobholders overall in the next 20 years, but far fewer think it will greatly affect them personally. Majorities oppose using AI in making final decisions on hiring or firing.

As telework continues for many U.S. workers, no sign of widespread ‘Zoom fatigue’

Most workers who say their jobs can mainly be done from home say they are fine with the amount of time they spend on video calls.

COVID-19 Pandemic Continues To Reshape Work in America

Nearly two years into the COVID-19 pandemic, roughly six-in-ten U.S. workers who say their jobs can mainly be done from home (59%) are working from home all or most of the time.

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Future of work

Explore the transformation of how, where and why we work.

• Explore Our Latest Insights
• CEOs Must Rethink Outdated Approaches to Work Models
• What is Happening in the Future Work Across Industries?
• Reinventing the Future of Work

Where is the future of work headed?

Macroeconomic, social, geopolitical, climate, consumer and technological forces are affecting the way we live and work. Labor shortages remain tight and in this war for talent, leaders must consider how they can meet workers’ needs. Our Future of Work 2022 research found that only 26% of CEOs have a future-ready strategy that is holistically focused on changing how, why and where we work.

While business leaders cannot control the forces of disruption, they are vital in determining how to shape a future of work that allows their people to thrive. Workers need access to resources that support their fundamental human needs, in a supportive environment, regardless of their physical location. Those who do not feel they can be productive, healthy or happy in any work location are nearly 8x more likely to want to leave their organization .

The CHRO as a growth executive

Focusing the power of data, tech and people to accelerate reinvention—and a new vision for growth.

Explore our latest insights

Talent & Organization

Future of work research

Is work evolving in ways that energize people? Accenture research shows that people want to be supported at work and benefit from hybrid work.

Better to belong

Creating an inclusive environment where every person feels like they belong every day can unlock up to 5x more human potential.

From always connected to omni-connected experiences

Businesses can create environments where people feel connected, included and know they belong.

Honing your digital edge

Digital transformation has been a priority in recent years, but it is now a requirement in the future of work.

3 levers to expand access to highly skilled talent

CEOs must rethink outdated approaches to work models

There is a disconnect between what people want from work and what employers are offering. Only 1 in 6 people feel highly connected to their organization and the people they work with . We can’t just blame technology.

We surveyed 200 CEOs around the globe and our research found that leaders believe things need to change from an organizational and people perspective, but 66% of CEOs are reluctant to pursue work models and approaches that differ from those used in the past .

CEOs can no longer rely on approaches that have succeeded in the past as they are based on outdated concepts about people and business. Businesses who are leading the way use technology to unlock the full power of human ingenuity, and build a foundation for healthy, effective workers and organizations that thrive in times of change.

How can clients reinvent the employee experience?

Accenture’s Michael Benyamin talks about our strategy for putting people’s engagement, happiness and productivity above all else.

What is happening in the future work across industries?

Whether it’s health practitioners, grocery store clerks or delivery drivers, an estimated 2.7 billion people keep our world working. Retaining these workers and keeping them happy, healthy and fulfilled in their jobs will require new thinking and approaches. Leaders across industries are exploring new ways to help their people build skills and grow in their career pathways.

Here are some industry-specific advances in the future of work:

Retailers are embracing opportunities to deliver omni-connected experiences that strengthen culture strategically, unlock employees’ potential and move their organizations forward, by design. The retail workforce has also become highly adaptive : Digital, data fluent and diverse.

Public Service

Labor shortages and skills gaps are affecting public service agencies’ ability to fulfill their mission . The workforce simply is not equipped with the right skills, tools and people to meet this growing need. Leaders are taking new approaches to unlock the potential of their workforce by making everyone feel recognized and valued.

To meet escalating demands, insurers are rethinking their work, workforce and workplaces . They are rearchitecting the work and roles done in an insurance organization, reskilling their workforce and creating better digital and physical workplaces.

Mining & Metals

The mining workforce of the future will require different skills, which are being dictated by trends that include artificial intelligence, machine learning and process automation. To attract and retain an effective future workforce , industry leaders are exploring new talent sourcing strategies and different employee value propositions.

Talent leaders, agents of public service change

Combining the power of data, tech and talent to accelerate reinvention in public service.

Built for change: Reimagining the future of work

Reinventing the future of work

It is time for CEOs and other business leaders to reimagine new models of work that center on people and how, where and why they work. These are some ways to get started:

say purpose is more of a talent branding tool than a real catalyst for change . A clear and compelling purpose can attract new talent and help existing workers feel that they are contributing to something bigger than themselves.

of CEOs still prioritize productivity over people’s well-beings. When leaders shed command-and-control models, they build trust by giving people autonomy to choose their own path to get business done. 

of someone’s intention to stay with a company is tied to being omni-connected . Better work experiences rely on omni-connected cultures, where people are connected and feel they belong, regardless of physical location.

of workers are confident their skills will be relevant in five years . To unlock human ingenuity, people need ongoing training and digital tools that enable them to connect, work and grow.

The future of work is happening now. Let’s work together to build new models that enable people to be happy, healthy, connected and productive anywhere.

Case studies

Embracing the future of work and omni-connected experience

Helping people connect, contribute and know they belong.

Empowering digital workers

How Accenture provides the right experiences, tools and environment to work in a modern way.

Revolutionizing how we work

A global biopharma company’s human-centered approach is changing the way work happens and the way employees approach their lives.

Related capabilities

Our global team of experts work with you to create transformation by enriching the relationship between people and technology.

Join the team

Ideate, innovate, change the world, repeat. Be part of a team of talented people using the latest technology to create experiences that win awards and make headlines.

Frequently asked questions

What is meant by the future of work.

The future of work is happening now. Responsible leaders are moving beyond physical location to shape the future of work by giving people resources tailored to their needs. In fact, one Accenture study, “The future of work: A hybrid work model,” found that 63% of high-growth companies have already adopted a “productivity anywhere” workforce model.

How does digital enable work from anywhere?

Simply put, the future of work is digital. By enabling work from anywhere, digital tools allow workers to bring their best selves to work—wherever they are. Yet according to the Accenture report “Modern cloud champions,” just 18% of CXOs have a clear cloud transformation vision and are implementing continuous change across their workforce. Digital transformation has been a priority for companies in recent years, but now it is an imperative for survival. Our research, “Honing your digital edge,” found that digitally fluent organizations score highly in innovation, people experience and customer value.

The Future of Work: more evidence, less drama

By Bernard Magenhann, JRC Acting Director-General

Profound transformations have swept through our workplaces in recent years. Digital tools, automation and algorithmic management are increasingly widespread across various economic sectors. Algorithmically-driven automation tools, initially used for task allocation and workers’ monitoring in digital labour platforms, are increasingly adopted in traditional workplaces as well, and for a wider range of tasks.

Labour Day is a fitting moment to consider how this new wave of technological change is reshaping our labour markets.  What impact will it have on the composition of the labour force, and what are the potential risks and opportunities for workers and businesses? Most importantly, how can we be best prepared for these changes?

Amid rapid technological advancement, concerns about the future of work are natural.  Understanding how automation, digitalisation and algorithmic management are reshaping employment dynamics in the digital age is crucial. The research agenda on the changing nature of work carried out by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre in collaboration with the Commission’s Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion helps us better understand how we can anticipate challenges and seize opportunities, while still protecting the wellbeing of workers and ensuring the best possible working environments.

So, what is the expected impact on work and workers of these technological advancements?

Don't panic!

Contrary to apocalyptic narratives, the future of work is not a doomsday scenario that will render human labour obsolete. From the research conducted so far, automation has been and will likely continue to be a gradual, incremental process. We are witnessing the integration of digital technologies to complement existing automation technologies, improving workflows and processes. For example, in manufacturing, robots equipped with AI-driven sensors enhance precision and efficiency, leading to more productive and efficient production lines.

Indeed, the advent of automation is not synonymous with large-scale job destruction. Any employment reduction linked to technological upgrading is often mitigated by increases in productivity, volumes produced, and the emergence of new types of jobs. Instead of replacing workers ‘ en masse’ , automation often alters the nature of tasks and quality of jobs overall, with the tasks reassigned and workers redeployed to new roles. The share of maintenance staff and engineers, for example, is likely to increase in a more automated world. Investing in education and training and embracing life-long learning is crucial for workers and employers to adapt to these shifts.

Lending a (metallic) hand

Automation of repetitive and arduous tasks can reduce physical strain, fatigue and stress levels resulting in safer, more comfortable working environments and allowing some workers to focus on more fulfilling tasks. For example, in the healthcare sector digital technologies could improve work coordination processes, freeing up time for caregiving activities.

From ergonomics to mental health

Nevertheless, our research also suggests increased pressure and pace due to automation and algorithmic management, which can offset the positive impacts and take a toll on mental health and job quality. This underscores the need for proactive measures to safeguard worker wellbeing.

Additionally, concerns about digital monitoring and surveillance of workers must be addressed. The rise of algorithmic management, characterised by algorithms organising, monitoring and optimising work processes, is transforming traditional employment dynamics. While research conducted so far suggests that the current institutional and regulatory frameworks still seem to mitigate major impacts, concerns about workers’ rights and privacy remain valid.

The reduction of workers’ autonomy is another concern, as tasks become more standardised, potentially leading to workers losing agency. There is also a risk of increased discrimination, as the algorithms dictating work assignments and schedules could replicate biases and inequalities. However, human decisions can also be discriminatory, and automation can be used to reduce human biases. The dynamics in this evolving landscape need to be closely monitored so that EU institutions and European governments have robust evidence to support future policy decisions to grasp the benefits of these technologies and protect workers. 

Losing the middle?

Contrary to fears of a disappearing middle, research indicates that there is no universal pattern of job polarisation as a result of technical change. Instead, we observe continuous occupational upgrading, with a growing demand for high-skilled occupations. However, in some countries and periods, workers with middle and particularly low levels of skills face increasing difficulties in the labour market. Recent research suggests that advanced tools, such as generative AI, may decrease disparities within occupations, increasing productivity, particularly among less-experienced and lower-skilled workers.

Keeping up with change: the real challenge?

Adapting to change remains the real challenge. As digitalisation, automation and algorithmic management become a reality across all workplaces, leaders in both the public and private sectors must stay alert to their human impact.

Ultimately, it is about understanding the direction of future changes, boosting productivity and fostering innovation, while protecting workers' rights and ensuring a fair and inclusive labour market for all. We hope our research contributes to this objective.

Happy Labour Day!

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The future of work after COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted labor markets globally during 2020. The short-term consequences were sudden and often severe: Millions of people were furloughed or lost jobs, and others rapidly adjusted to working from home as offices closed. Many other workers were deemed essential and continued to work in hospitals and grocery stores, on garbage trucks and in warehouses, yet under new protocols to reduce the spread of the novel coronavirus.

This report on the future of work after COVID-19 is the first of three MGI reports that examine aspects of the postpandemic economy. The others look at the pandemic’s long-term influence on consumption and the potential for a broad recovery led by enhanced productivity and innovation. Here, we assess the lasting impact of the pandemic on labor demand, the mix of occupations, and the workforce skills required in eight countries with diverse economic and labor market models: China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Together, these eight countries account for almost half the global population and 62 percent of GDP.

Jobs with the highest physical proximity are likely to be most disrupted

Before COVID-19, the largest disruptions to work involved new technologies and growing trade links. COVID-19 has, for the first time, elevated the importance of the physical dimension of work. In this research, we develop a novel way to quantify the proximity required in more than 800 occupations by grouping them into ten work arenas according to their proximity to coworkers and customers, the number of interpersonal interactions involved, and their on-site and indoor nature.

This offers a different view of work than traditional sector definitions. For instance, our medical care arena includes only caregiving roles requiring close interaction with patients, such as doctors and nurses. Hospital and medical office administrative staff fall into the computer-based office work arena, where more work can be done remotely. Lab technicians and pharmacists work in the indoor production work arena because those jobs require use of specialized equipment on-site but have little exposure to other people (Exhibit 1).

We find that jobs in work arenas with higher levels of physical proximity are likely to see greater transformation after the pandemic, triggering knock-on effects in other work arenas as business models shift in response.

The short- and potential long-term disruptions to these arenas from COVID-19 vary. During the pandemic, the virus most severely disturbed arenas with the highest overall physical proximity scores: medical care, personal care, on-site customer service, and leisure and travel. In the longer term, work arenas with higher physical proximity scores are also likely to be more unsettled, although proximity is not the only explanation. For example:

• The on-site customer interaction arena includes frontline workers who interact with customers in retail stores, banks, and post offices, among other places. Work in this arena is defined by frequent interaction with strangers and requires on-site presence. Some work in this arena migrated to e-commerce and other digital transactions, a behavioral change that is likely to stick.
• The leisure and travel arena is home to customer-facing workers in hotels, restaurants, airports, and entertainment venues. Workers in this arena interact daily with crowds of new people. COVID-19 forced most leisure venues to close in 2020 and airports and airlines to operate on a severely limited basis. In the longer term, the shift to remote work  and related reduction in business travel, as well as automation of some occupations, such as food service roles, may curtail labor demand in this arena.
• The computer-based office work arena includes offices of all sizes and administrative workspaces in hospitals, courts, and factories. Work in this arena requires only moderate physical proximity to others and a moderate number of human interactions. This is the largest arena in advanced economies, accounting for roughly one-third of employment. Nearly all potential remote work is within this arena.
• The outdoor production and maintenance arena includes construction sites, farms, residential and commercial grounds, and other outdoor spaces. COVID-19 had little impact here as work in this arena requires low proximity and few interactions with others and takes place fully outdoors. This is the largest arena in China and India, accounting for 35 to 55 percent of their workforces.

COVID-19 has accelerated three broad trends that may reshape work after the pandemic recedes

The pandemic pushed companies and consumers to rapidly adopt new behaviors that are likely to stick, changing the trajectory of three groups of trends. We consequently see sharp discontinuity between their impact on labor markets before and after the pandemic.

Remote work and virtual meetings are likely to continue, albeit less intensely than at the pandemic’s peak

Perhaps the most obvious impact of COVID-19 on the labor force is the dramatic increase in employees working remotely. To determine how extensively remote work might persist after the pandemic, we analyzed its potential  across more than 2,000 tasks used in some 800 occupations in the eight focus countries. Considering only remote work that can be done without a loss of productivity, we find that about 20 to 25 percent of the workforces in advanced economies could work from home between three and five days a week. This represents four to five times more remote work than before the pandemic and could prompt a large change in the geography of work, as individuals and companies shift out of large cities into suburbs and small cities. We found that some work that technically can be done remotely is best done in person. Negotiations, critical business decisions, brainstorming sessions, providing sensitive feedback, and onboarding new employees are examples of activities that may lose some effectiveness when done remotely.

Some companies are already planning to shift to flexible workspaces after positive experiences with remote work during the pandemic, a move that will reduce the overall space they need and bring fewer workers into offices each day. A survey of 278 executives by McKinsey in August 2020 found that on average, they planned to reduce office space by 30 percent. Demand for restaurants and retail in downtown areas and for public transportation may decline as a result.

Remote work may also put a dent in business travel as its extensive use of videoconferencing during the pandemic has ushered in a new acceptance of virtual meetings and other aspects of work. While leisure travel and tourism are likely to rebound after the crisis, McKinsey’s travel practice estimates that about 20 percent of business travel, the most lucrative segment for airlines, may not return. This would have significant knock-on effects on employment in commercial aerospace, airports, hospitality, and food service. E-commerce and other virtual transactions are booming.

Many consumers discovered the convenience of e-commerce and other online activities during the pandemic. In 2020, the share of e-commerce grew at two to five times the rate before COVID-19 (Exhibit 2). Roughly three-quarters of people using digital channels for the first time during the pandemic say they will continue using them when things return to “normal,” according to McKinsey Consumer Pulse  surveys conducted around the world.

Other kinds of virtual transactions such as telemedicine, online banking, and streaming entertainment have also taken off. Online doctor consultations through Practo, a telehealth company in India, grew more than tenfold between April and November 2020 . These virtual practices may decline somewhat as economies reopen but are likely to continue well above levels seen before the pandemic.

This shift to digital transactions has propelled growth in delivery, transportation, and warehouse jobs. In China, e-commerce, delivery, and social media jobs grew by more than 5.1 million during the first half of 2020.

COVID-19 may propel faster adoption of automation and AI, especially in work arenas with high physical proximity

Two ways businesses historically have controlled cost and mitigated uncertainty during recessions are by adopting automation and redesigning work processes, which reduce the share of jobs involving mainly routine tasks. In our global survey of 800 senior executives  in July 2020, two-thirds said they were stepping up investment in automation and AI either somewhat or significantly. Production figures for robotics in China exceeded prepandemic levels by June 2020.

Many companies deployed automation and AI in warehouses, grocery stores, call centers, and manufacturing plants to reduce workplace density and cope with surges in demand. The common feature of these automation use cases is their correlation with high scores on physical proximity, and our research finds the work arenas with high levels of human interaction are likely to see the greatest acceleration in adoption of automation and AI.

The mix of occupations may shift, with little job growth in low-wage occupations

The trends accelerated by COVID-19 may spur greater changes in the mix of jobs within economies than we estimated before the pandemic.

We find that a markedly different mix of occupations may emerge after the pandemic across the eight economies. Compared to our pre-COVID-19 estimates, we expect the largest negative impact of the pandemic to fall on workers in food service and customer sales and service roles, as well as less-skilled office support roles. Jobs in warehousing and transportation may increase as a result of the growth in e-commerce and the delivery economy, but those increases are unlikely to offset the disruption of many low-wage jobs. In the United States, for instance, customer service and food service jobs could fall by 4.3 million, while transportation jobs could grow by nearly 800,000. Demand for workers in the healthcare and STEM occupations may grow more than before the pandemic, reflecting increased attention to health as populations age and incomes rise as well as the growing need for people who can create, deploy, and maintain new technologies (Exhibit 3).

Before the pandemic, net job losses were concentrated in middle-wage occupations in manufacturing and some office work, reflecting automation, and low- and high-wage jobs continued to grow. Nearly all low-wage workers who lost jobs could move into other low-wage occupations—for instance, a data entry worker could move into retail or home healthcare. Because of the pandemic’s impact on low-wage jobs, we now estimate that almost all growth in labor demand will occur in high-wage jobs. Going forward, more than half of displaced low-wage workers may need to shift to occupations in higher wage brackets and requiring different skills to remain employed.

As many as 25 percent more workers may need to switch occupations than before the pandemic

Given the expected concentration of job growth in high-wage occupations and declines in low-wage occupations, the scale and nature of workforce transitions required in the years ahead will be challenging, according to our research. Across the eight focus countries, more than 100 million workers, or 1 in 16, will need to find a different occupation by 2030 in our post-COVID-19 scenario, as shown in Exhibit 4. This is 12 percent more than we estimated before the pandemic, and up to 25 percent more in advanced economies (Exhibit 4).

Before the pandemic, we estimated that just 6 percent of workers would need to find jobs in higher wage occupations. In our post-COVID-19 research, we find not only that a larger share of workers will likely need to transition out of the bottom two wage brackets but also that roughly half of them overall will need new, more advanced skills to move to occupations one or even two wage brackets higher.

The skill mix required among workers who need to shift occupations has changed. The share of time German workers spend using basic cognitive skills, for example, may shrink by 3.4 percentage points, while time spend using social and emotional skills will increase by 3.2 percentage points. In India, the share of total work hours expended using physical and manual skills will decline by 2.2 percentage points, while time devoted to technological skills will rise 3.3 percentage points. Workers in occupations in the lowest wage bracket use basic cognitive skills and physical and manual skills 68 percent of the time, while in the middle wage bracket, use of these skills occupies 48 percent of time spent. In the highest two brackets, those skills account for less than 20 percent of time spent. The most disadvantaged workers may have the biggest job transitions ahead, in part because of their disproportionate employment in the arenas most affected by COVID-19. In Europe and the United States, workers with less than a college degree, members of ethnic minority groups, and women are more likely to need to change occupations after COVID-19 than before. In the United States, people without a college degree are 1.3 times more likely to need to make transitions compared to those with a college degree, and Black and Hispanic workers are 1.1 times more likely to have to transition between occupations than white workers. In France, Germany, and Spain, the increase in job transitions required due to trends influenced by COVID-19 is 3.9 times higher for women than for men. Similarly, the need for occupational changes will hit younger workers more than older workers, and individuals not born in the European Union more than native-born workers.

Companies and policymakers can help facilitate workforce transitions

The scale of workforce transitions set off by COVID-19’s influence on labor trends increases the urgency for businesses and policymakers to take steps to support additional training and education programs for workers. Companies and governments exhibited extraordinary flexibility and adaptability in responding to the pandemic with purpose and innovation that they might also harness to retool the workforce in ways that point to a brighter future of work.

Businesses can start with a granular analysis of what work can be done remotely by focusing on the tasks involved rather than whole jobs. They can also play a larger role in retraining workers, as Walmart, Amazon, and IBM have done. Others have facilitated occupational shifts by focusing on the skills they need, rather than on academic degrees. Remote work also offers companies the opportunity to enrich their diversity by tapping workers who, for family and other reasons, were unable to relocate to the superstar cities where talent, capital, and opportunities concentrated before the pandemic.

Policymakers could support businesses by expanding and enhancing the digital infrastructure. Even in advanced economies, almost 20 percent of workers in rural households lack access to the internet. Governments could also consider extending benefits and protections to independent workers and to workers working to build their skills and knowledge mid-career.

Both businesses and policymakers could collaborate to support workers migrating between occupations. Under the Pact for Skills established in the European Union during the pandemic, companies and public authorities have dedicated €7 billion to enhancing the skills of some 700,000 automotive workers, while in the United States, Merck and other large companies have put up more than $100 million to burnish the skills of Black workers without a college education and create jobs that they can fill.

The reward of such efforts would be a more resilient, more talented, and better-paid workforce—and a more robust and equitable society.

Go behind the scenes and get more insights with “ Where the jobs are: An inside look at our new Future of Work research ” from our New at McKinsey blog.

Susan Lund and Anu Madgavkar are partners of the McKinsey Global Institute, where James Manyika and Sven Smit are co-chairs and directors. Kweilin Ellingrud is a senior partner in McKinsey’s Minneapolis office. Mary Meaney is a senior partner in the Paris office. Olivia Robinson is a consultant in the London office.

This report was edited by Stephanie Strom, a senior editor with the McKinsey Global Institute, and Peter Gumbel, MGI editorial director.

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From start-ups to digital jobs: Here’s what global leaders think will drive maximum job creation

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• AI and entrepreneurship will drive significant job growth.
• Developing nations are set to benefit as technology opens up opportunities.
• The Forum's Special Meeting 2024 heard from global leaders on job creation.

We're less than five years into the 2020s, but this is already shaping up to be a decade defined by fundamental shifts in the working lives of billions of people.

Working from home has become commonplace as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the arrival of generative artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming the working relationship between humans and technology, and the global economic landscape is being buffeted by geopolitical tensions that hint at long-term shifts in global trading relations.

Against this backdrop, the World Economic Forum convened global leaders to map out the path to maximum job creation for future generations.

Building the jobs market of the future

The Forum's Special Meeting 2024 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia heard a range of perspectives on developing a jobs economy that will provide meaningful and rewarding work for populations around the globe.

Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Airlangga Hartarto said his country needed to create five million new jobs every year to employ a growing population. Participating in the discussion panel on Labour Markets for the Next Generation , Minister Hartarto said his country is "using digitalization as a new engine of growth".

It's a strategy particularly suited for emerging economies, as highlighted in the Forum's 2024 white paper, The Rise of Global Digital Jobs . "For lower-income countries, the increase in working-age people presents a potential demographic dividend and could set off a virtuous cycle for economic output, tax revenues and material living standards, but is dependent on significantly large levels of high-quality job creation. Underemployment, especially for young people, is already a challenge in many such economies," the authors point out.

With AI now at the forefront of digitalization, developing nations are looking to take advantage of the relative immaturity of their employment sectors, turning a negative into a positive. Rwanda's Minister of Information Communication Technology and Innovation, Paula Ingabire, said: "One of the benefits, is that we don't have legacy infrastructure and systems. And so if we're able to be very laser-focused on how we deploy AI solutions for the societal problems we're trying to solve then we gain the benefits, but we're also able to leapfrog when it comes to technological development."

Addressing the session AI, Productivity and Work: Can We Have it All? , Ingabire said AI could help people in low-paid work to increase their productivity and, potentially, their earning power.

AI could prove to be a transformative technology and net creator of jobs across a wide range of industry sectors, according to the Forum's Future of Jobs Report 2023 .

The report finds that technological advancement through increased adoption of new and frontier technologies and improved digital access are expected to drive job growth in more than half of surveyed companies.

A major challenge of technology-driven job creation is ensuring the workforce has the required skills to succeed in these new roles. Reskilling existing workers will enable them to thrive as their jobs evolve in the age of AI, but education providers as well as employers must meet the imperative to give employees the skills to compete for the digital jobs of the future.

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Turning small businesses into a jobs powerhouse

The burden of creating the millions of new jobs required will fall disproportionately on small businesses. There was consensus at the Forum's Special Meeting 2024 in Riyadh that these organizations must be freed from the regulation and red tape that can hold back their operations and ambitions.

Jay Collins, Vice-Chairman of Global Public Sector at Citi told the panel of Labour Markets For the Next Generation ; "small- and medium-sized businesses can't handle heavy regulation, they can't handle heavy, slow bureaucratic government processes. So you have to create an enabling environment for everything from regulation to tax to legal to licensing. It's a huge challenge that essentially allows for job creation."

Collins emphasized his view by pointing out that "70% of the job growth in the OECD is small and medium-sized businesses. So if you can't figure that out, you don't have a proposition to deal with the future of work".

The meeting also heard how the private sector and a new wave of entrepreneurship are driving job growth in Saudi Arabia, as World Economic Forum Global Shaper Emon Shakoor pointed out: "If we look at any economy, what are the building blocks of job creation? Very simply put, it's start-ups. So, when young people graduate today, they must change their thinking to not only ask 'where can I find a job' but also 'how can I create a job? How can I transform myself from a young person with a vision into a visionary entrepreneur?'"

According to Badr Al-Badr, CEO of the Mohammed Bin Salman Foundation, Saudi entrepreneurs are driving job creation beyond all expectations. "We set ourselves a target to create 10,000 jobs through the start-ups. A few years after we set this goal, we had to revise it. Why? Because we had already achieved it. This just reinforces what Emon is pointing out; the power of start-ups to create jobs."

Global trends impacting jobs creation

In addition to frontier technology and the business landscape for SMEs, a wide range of geopolitical events is set to influence the creation and loss of jobs.

The green transition, the adoption of more climate-friendly business practices and the localization of supply chains are overwhelmingly positive forces, as the chart below, from the Future of Jobs Report 2023 illustrates.

The green transition is seen by business as the biggest driver of job creation, with more than 52% of companies surveyed saying it would be likely to create new jobs.

The downside pressure on job creation arises from increased geopolitical divisions, the rising cost of living and sluggish economic growth.

On a positive note, economic downturns are typically cyclical and relatively short-lived. The push for net zero, a business mindset that looks for positive outcomes beyond profit, and the adoption of AI and other frontier technologies are trends likely to persist long into the future.

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FTC Announces Rule Banning Noncompetes

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Today, the Federal Trade Commission issued a final rule to promote competition by banning noncompetes nationwide, protecting the fundamental freedom of workers to change jobs, increasing innovation, and fostering new business formation.

“Noncompete clauses keep wages low, suppress new ideas, and rob the American economy of dynamism, including from the more than 8,500 new startups that would be created a year once noncompetes are banned,” said FTC Chair Lina M. Khan. “The FTC’s final rule to ban noncompetes will ensure Americans have the freedom to pursue a new job, start a new business, or bring a new idea to market.”

The FTC estimates that the final rule banning noncompetes will lead to new business formation growing by 2.7% per year, resulting in more than 8,500 additional new businesses created each year. The final rule is expected to result in higher earnings for workers, with estimated earnings increasing for the average worker by an additional $524 per year, and it is expected to lower health care costs by up to $194 billion over the next decade. In addition, the final rule is expected to help drive innovation, leading to an estimated average increase of 17,000 to 29,000 more patents each year for the next 10 years under the final rule.

Noncompetes are a widespread and often exploitative practice imposing contractual conditions that prevent workers from taking a new job or starting a new business. Noncompetes often force workers to either stay in a job they want to leave or bear other significant harms and costs, such as being forced to switch to a lower-paying field, being forced to relocate, being forced to leave the workforce altogether, or being forced to defend against expensive litigation. An estimated 30 million workers—nearly one in five Americans—are subject to a noncompete.

Under the FTC’s new rule, existing noncompetes for the vast majority of workers will no longer be enforceable after the rule’s effective date. Existing noncompetes for senior executives - who represent less than 0.75% of workers - can remain in force under the FTC’s final rule, but employers are banned from entering into or attempting to enforce any new noncompetes, even if they involve senior executives. Employers will be required to provide notice to workers other than senior executives who are bound by an existing noncompete that they will not be enforcing any noncompetes against them.

In January 2023, the FTC issued a  proposed rule which was subject to a 90-day public comment period. The FTC received more than 26,000 comments on the proposed rule, with over 25,000 comments in support of the FTC’s proposed ban on noncompetes. The comments informed the FTC’s final rulemaking process, with the FTC carefully reviewing each comment and making changes to the proposed rule in response to the public’s feedback.

In the final rule, the Commission has determined that it is an unfair method of competition, and therefore a violation of Section 5 of the FTC Act, for employers to enter into noncompetes with workers and to enforce certain noncompetes.

The Commission found that noncompetes tend to negatively affect competitive conditions in labor markets by inhibiting efficient matching between workers and employers. The Commission also found that noncompetes tend to negatively affect competitive conditions in product and service markets, inhibiting new business formation and innovation. There is also evidence that noncompetes lead to increased market concentration and higher prices for consumers.

Alternatives to Noncompetes

The Commission found that employers have several alternatives to noncompetes that still enable firms to protect their investments without having to enforce a noncompete.

Trade secret laws and non-disclosure agreements (NDAs) both provide employers with well-established means to protect proprietary and other sensitive information. Researchers estimate that over 95% of workers with a noncompete already have an NDA.

The Commission also finds that instead of using noncompetes to lock in workers, employers that wish to retain employees can compete on the merits for the worker’s labor services by improving wages and working conditions.

Changes from the NPRM

Under the final rule, existing noncompetes for senior executives can remain in force. Employers, however, are prohibited from entering into or enforcing new noncompetes with senior executives. The final rule defines senior executives as workers earning more than $151,164 annually and who are in policy-making positions.

Additionally, the Commission has eliminated a provision in the proposed rule that would have required employers to legally modify existing noncompetes by formally rescinding them. That change will help to streamline compliance.

Instead, under the final rule, employers will simply have to provide notice to workers bound to an existing noncompete that the noncompete agreement will not be enforced against them in the future. To aid employers’ compliance with this requirement, the Commission has included model language in the final rule that employers can use to communicate to workers. 

The Commission vote to approve the issuance of the final rule was 3-2 with Commissioners Melissa Holyoak and Andrew N. Ferguson voting no. Commissioners Rebecca Kelly Slaughter , Alvaro Bedoya , Melissa Holyoak and Andrew N. Ferguson each issued separate statements. Chair Lina M. Khan will issue a separate statement.

The final rule will become effective 120 days after publication in the Federal Register.

Once the rule is effective, market participants can report information about a suspected violation of the rule to the Bureau of Competition by emailing  [email protected] . 

The Federal Trade Commission develops policy initiatives on issues that affect competition, consumers, and the U.S. economy. The FTC will never demand money, make threats, tell you to transfer money, or promise you a prize. Follow the  FTC on social media , read  consumer alerts  and the  business blog , and  sign up to get the latest FTC news and alerts .

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Florida sees thriving future if climate resilience managed, research finds

Florida wildlife corridor will spearhead climate resilience if allowed to evolve and essential preparatory work done, study says

Climate predictions in Florida, for the most part, make pretty grim reading. Rising oceans threaten to submerge most of the state by the end of the century, and soaring temperatures could make it too hot to live here anyway.

But new research by a coalition of prominent universities paints a more upbeat picture of Florida’s future as a thriving state for humans and wildlife, with natural resources harnessed to mitigate the worst effects of the climate emergency generally, as well as extreme weather events such as hurricanes and floods.

Such a prosperous tomorrow, the authors say, can only follow essential preparatory work today.

One key element, an 18m-acre swath of protected land called the Florida wildlife corridor , is already mostly in place, and will spearhead Florida’s climate resilience if properly managed and allowed to evolve, the researchers believe.

“We are very blessed in Florida to have the opportunity to have a land conservation project as ambitious as the wildlife corridor, and right now a little over 30% of the state is permanently conserved,” said Joshua Daskin, conservation director of Archbold Biological Station , an ecological research non-profit that compiled the report in collaboration with five universities from Tallahassee to south Florida.

“Without decades of work by conservationists, by state agencies, by non-profits, by landowners, we wouldn’t have the opportunity to reap the benefits of resilience to fires, storms, floods and heat.”

The study makes a number of recommendations for the corridor, a private-public partnership finally approved by the Florida legislature in 2021 after years of planning, with a vision for a single, unrestricted wildlife passageway running hundreds of miles from the southern Everglades to the Alabama border.

Rich in flora and fauna, and home to almost all of Florida’s land-based imperiled species such as panthers, black bears and bald eagles, the corridor was designed to be primarily a conservation project, with little focus on climate resilience.

Yet the report notes that two-thirds of Florida’s floodplains, covering about 10m acres, are contained within the corridor, bringing potentially “billions of dollars’ worth of flood hazard protection” if they remain undeveloped.

Another cited example is how the conservation of large, connected open spaces such as those provided by the corridor limits the exposure of people and property to wildfire, although the report concedes managed burns would still be necessary to further reduce the risk and preserve wildlife habitats.

Protecting large acreages of forests and woodlands in perpetuity preserves substantial numbers of trees that lower carbon dioxide levels and slow global warming.

With an estimated 90% of Florida’s population of 22 million living within 20 miles of the corridor, and with up to another 1,000 people arriving every day , the authors say residents current and future have a vested interest in, and will be dependent on, what the experts call a “credible motivation” of its protections.

“Not everybody is first and foremost concerned with protecting panthers, or Florida scrub jays, or other wildlife, and that’s understandable. We all have our lives to live,” Daskin said.

“But people are concerned about protecting their property, protecting their wellbeing and protecting their economies as our climate changes. So the corridor, and the resilience benefits this study identified, really resonates with people for lots of different reasons.”

One important concern, Daskin said, is how development will be managed to accommodate the large numbers wanting to make Florida their home.

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“What makes sense in more places, whether in the corridor or outside, is clustered development, building at somewhat higher densities,” he said.

“Instead of everyone getting a five-acre ranch, as is happening in some parts of the state, we’re talking about walkable, livable communities that reduce the need to drive everywhere and the need to commute as far as we do today. Research shows this makes people’s lives healthier, happier and more affordable, and from a municipal perspective it’s cheaper to provide public services, like emergency services, utilities, and so forth.”

So far, about 10m acres of the corridor are in existing conservation zones, with the remaining eight classified as “opportunity areas”. The report calls for “recurring, high-level [state] funding” for conservation, and highlights the benefits of purchasing land considered “missing links” in the corridor, or incentivizing private owners to work their land productively and keep it out of the hands of developers.

Success, the report concedes, will “require political will”, something not shown earlier this week when the Florida fish and wildlife conservation commission agreed to surrender protections of the ecologically sensitive Split Oak Forest east of Orlando and allow a toll road to be built right through it.

Daskin, however, is confident there remains a common desire for conservation, noting that the corridor was established by the unanimous consent of a Florida legislature mindful of its future benefits.

“One of the beautiful things about the corridor is how it protects the things that make the state so attractive to new residents,” Daskin said.

“People come here because they want to be outside, they want to see wildlife, they want to recreate, whether it’s hunting and fishing, paddling, swimming.

“If we lose the corridor we lose those things that attract people here, we lose the habitat for wildlife, and we lose a lot of these climate benefits.”

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After the expiration of the latest contract last month, the future of ShotSpotter – a surveillance technology used by law enforcement to detect gunshots – in Minneapolis is up in the air.

Though law enforcement claims the sensors help officers more accurately determine the locations of gunshots and get to the scene faster, opponents and researchers alike say the technology is ineffective and promotes discriminatory policing against the city’s Black and Indigenous residents.

The technology 

ShotSpotter, developed by technology company SoundThinking, uses sensors installed in locations around a city that employ microphones, a machine-learning algorithm and human evaluators to detect gunshots. Once detected, the system triangulates the sound’s locations and alerts local police to the sensor’s activation.

The technology is active in more than 160 cities nationwide.

The exact locations where the sensors are installed are hidden from police and the public alike, but data leaked from SoundThinking in February revealing the coordinates of more than 25,000 sensors globally showed that the devices are placed anywhere from atop elementary schools and public housing complexes to billboards and government buildings.

Minneapolis has been using ShotSpotter for nearly two decades, investing nearly $2.2 million in contracts with the company since 2007. St. Paul briefly considered using the gunshot technology during an increase in gun violence in 2019, but officials eventually decided against it.

Minneapolis Ward 2 City Council Member Robin Wonsley, chair of the Administration and Enterprise Oversight Committee, facilitated presentations to her committee last month to learn more about the issue ahead of possible renewal after hearing from constituents and researchers. Wonsley said the council has no authority on if or when a renewal is brought before council and that the decision is up to the mayor and the city’s Office of Community Safety (OCS), which houses the Minneapolis Police Department.

In a statement, OCS spokesman Brian Feintech said they plan to pursue renewal of the contract.

“The Office of Community Safety and its departments will be presenting to the City Council on the city’s use of ShotSpotter in the coming weeks,” Feintech said. “OCS departments view ShotSpotter as a valuable tool to collect data that we would not otherwise have.”

In the meantime, however, Wonsley said she plans to bring forward a proposal within the next two weeks to kickstart an evaluation of ShotSpotter conducted by an external party. Council members, she said, need to have a better understanding of the technology’s effectiveness and potential impacts before spending more money on it.

“From my understanding, we’ve never done an evaluation of ShotSpotter since we entered into a contract with them prior to my tenure on the City Council,” Wonsley said in an interview. “I think it’s timely that we do that and from that analysis – be able to have data in front of us so that we can make a sound decision.”

Despite its widespread use nationwide, research conducted on the technology’s use in recent years suggests it is ineffective, prompting more skepticism from local officials when contract renewals come up. Many cities used American Rescue Plan (ARPA) funding earmarked from crime prevention to pay for ShotSpotter contracts, but now funding isn’t as readily available for most cities, adding to that skepticism, said Abdul Nasser Rad, managing director of research and data at Campaign Zero, a public safety-focused research group.

“(Cities) were able to leverage a lot of that ARPA funding, which cities were like ‘this is free money,’” he said. “Now I think generally there’s a lot more skepticism and concern, but there’s also much more harder questions, like is this actually taking resources away from people calling 911 … and how is it actually being deployed.”

Does it even work?

Rad said research has shown ShotSpotter is susceptible to activating in error due to the sensors’ use of sound waves to detect gunshots, but similar sounds like fireworks or a car backfiring can trigger activation. That causes 911 response times to lengthen overall as false detections pull officers away from other calls.

In Chicago, the MacArthur Justice Center reviewed nearly two years of ShotSpotter activation data in 2021 and found that 89% – or about 40,000 – of alerts resulted in police finding no gunfire-related crime. Nearly three years later, Chicago city officials announced in February they would not be renewing their contract.

Research conducted by Alexander Lindenfelser of the University of Minnesota Law School and Legal Rights Center found that the use of ShotSpotter disproportionately impacts Black and Native residents across Minneapolis. By analyzing all ShotSpotter activations between 2020 and 2023 and comparing that to U.S. Census data, Lindenfelser found that Black and Native residents were more than three times likely to live in an area with a ShotSpotter sensor installed.

Lindenfelser said the higher amounts of activations in those neighborhoods could further harm the police department’s relationship with the community, citing a report from the Chicago Office of the Inspector General that found officers perceived neighborhoods blanketed with ShotSpotter sensors as more dangerous.

“ShotSpotter sensors detect a gunshot that is instead a firework, a backfiring car, construction noise or another loud impulsive sound, and police respond to an incident that they think is dangerous and treat bystanders accordingly,” he said in an interview. “This has a lot of potential for police interactions to escalate out of fear in a way that can damage community trust.”

Rad said the fear opponents of ShotSpotter have is that it facilitates over-policing in areas that have historically experienced fraught relations with law enforcement. Police departments could point to the data provided by the technology to justify aggressive police response in those neighborhoods, he said. 

“This is the concern with a lot of policing technologies, that it will legitimize the sort of racist practices that police departments use in order to respond to social problems,” he said. “This is a further way of just basically making it seem like this is a neutral or objective way of sending in more police.”

The perception of danger in those areas with high ShotSpotter activations could have longer lasting effects. Opponents say developers and retailers may use the data to avoid investing in those neighborhoods, which further disenfranchises the areas’ residents by limiting the availability of housing and essential services like pharmacies and grocery stores. 

At this moment, as local officials nationwide continue to examine whether to maintain their use of ShotSpotter as a method to curb gun violence, Rad said he hopes existing research on its effectiveness and more research going forward will steer cities toward more proven gun violence prevention measures. 

“It’s an opportunity for the city to actually look into alternative reporting systems and actually be serious about this issue,” he said.

Mohamed Ibrahim Mohamed Ibrahim is MinnPost’s environment and public safety reporter. He can be reached at [email protected] .

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Molten Salt Reactors

• Molten salt reactors operated in the 1960s.
• They are seen as a promising technology today principally as a thorium fuel cycle prospect or for using spent LWR fuel.
• A variety of designs is being developed, some as fast neutron types.
• Global research is currently led by China.
• Some have solid fuel similar to HTR fuel, others have fuel dissolved in the molten salt coolant.

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) use molten fluoride salts as primary coolant, at low pressure. This itself is not a radical departure when the fuel is solid and fixed. But extending the concept to dissolving the fissile and fertile fuel in the salt certainly represents a leap in lateral thinking relative to nearly every reactor operated so far. However, the concept is not new, as outlined below.

MSRs may operate with epithermal or fast neutron spectrums, and with a variety of fuels. Much of the interest today in reviving the MSR concept relates to using thorium (to breed fissile uranium-233), where an initial source of fissile material such as plutonium-239 needs to be provided. There are a number of different MSR design concepts, and a number of interesting challenges in the commercialisation of many, especially with thorium.

The salts concerned as primary coolant, mostly lithium-beryllium fluoride and lithium fluoride, remain liquid without pressurization from about 500°C up to about 1400°C, in marked contrast to a PWR which operates at about 315°C under 150 atmospheres pressure.

The main MSR concept is to have the fuel dissolved in the coolant as fuel salt, and ultimately to reprocess that online. Thorium, uranium, and plutonium all form suitable fluoride salts that readily dissolve in the LiF-BeF 2 (FLiBe) mixture, and thorium and uranium can be easily separated from one another in fluoride form. Batch reprocessing is likely in the short term, and fuel life is quoted at 4-7 years, with high burn-up. Intermediate designs and the AHTR have fuel particles in solid graphite and have less potential for thorium use.

Graphite as moderator is chemically compatible with the fluoride salts.

The US MSR programme originated in the Aircraft Reactor Experiment* at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Tennessee (built as part of the wartime Manhattan Project).

* It had primary coolant of NaF-ZrF 4 with UF 4 and secondary coolant of NaK at 880°C, to produce 60 MWt.

During the 1960s, the USA developed the molten salt breeder reactor concept at the ORNL. It was the primary back-up option for the fast breeder reactor (cooled by liquid metal) and the small prototype 8 MWt Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) operated at Oak Ridge over four years to 1969 (the MSR programme ran 1957-1976). In the first campaign (1965-68), uranium-235 tetrafluoride (UF 4 ) enriched to 33% was dissolved in molten lithium, beryllium and zirconium fluorides at 600-650°C which flowed through a graphite moderator at ambient pressure. The fuel comprised about one percent of the fluid.*

* LiF-BeF 2 -ZrF 4 -UF 4 (65:29.1:5:0.9 mole %)

The coolant salt in a secondary circuit was eutectic lithium + beryllium fluoride (FLiBe).* There was no breeding blanket, this being omitted for simplicity in favour of neutron measurements.

* Fuel salt melting point 434°C, coolant salt melting point 455°C. See Wong & Merrill 2004 reference .

The original objectives of the MSRE to demonstrate the concept as a simple reliable reactor were achieved by March 1965, and the U-235 campaign concluded. A second campaign (1968-69) used U-233 fuel which was then available, making MSRE the first reactor to use U-233, though it was imported and not bred in the reactor. This programme prepared the way for building a MSR breeder utilizing thorium, which would operate in the thermal (slow) neutron spectrum. A total of 10,000 operating hours was logged.

The culmination of the Oak Ridge research over 1970-76 resulted in an MSR design that would use LiF-BeF 2 -ThF 4 -UF 4 (72:16:12:0.4) as primary coolant with fuel. It would be moderated by graphite with a four-year replacement schedule, use NaF-NaBF 4 as the secondary coolant, and have a peak operating temperature of 705°C. 1

The R&D programme demonstrated the feasibility of this system, albeit excluding online reprocessing, and highlighted some unique corrosion and safety issues that would need to be addressed if constructing a larger pilot MSR with fuel salt. With a radioactive primary coolant loop, challenges would include processing facilities to remove the main fission products, though gaseous fission products come off readily in the gas purge system. It also showed that breeding required a different design, with a larger blanket loop and two fluids (heterogeneous). Tritium production was a problem (see below re lithium enrichment). The breeder project to produce U-233 from thorium was discontinued.

From 1975 to 2010 little happened in the USA with MSRs, though in 1980 ONRL published a study to "examine the conceptual feasibility” of a denatured MSR (DMSR) fuelled with low-enriched uranium-235 “and operated with a minimum of chemical processing," solely as a burner reactor. The main priority was proliferation resistance, avoiding use of HEU. 2

In the UK a large (2.5 GWe) lead-cooled fast spectrum MSR (MSFR) with the plutonium fuel dissolved in a molten chloride salt was designed, with experimental work undertaken over 1968-73. Funding ceased in 1974.

There is now renewed interest in the MSR concept in Japan, Russia, China, France and the USA, and one of the six Generation IV designs selected for further development is the MSR in two distinct variants, the molten salt fast reactor (MSFR) and the advanced high temperature reactor (AHTR) – also known as the fluoride salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR) with solid fuel, or PB-FHR specifically with pebble fuel. The Generation IV international Forum (GIF) mentions 'salt processing' as a technology gap for MSRs, putting the initial focus clearly on burners rather than breeders.

Since the 2002 Generation IV selection process, significant changes in design philosophy have taken place, according to a 2015 report by Energy Process Developments Ltd (EPD). The first is to design simpler, less ambitious, MSRs that do not breed new fuel, do not require online fuel reprocessing and which use the well-established enriched uranium fuel cycle. In this regard, both American researchers and the China Academy of Sciences/SINAP are working on solid fuel, salt-cooled reactor technology as a realistic first step into MSRs. In 2014, as part of an assessment of MSR activity internationally, proposals were made for pilot-scale implementation, where technical readiness was claimed. Six such specific proposals* were assessed over 12 months with commissioned expertise from established UK nuclear engineering firms. These proposals were all seen as credible for building a prototype, with one emerging in the EPD report as currently most suitable as a basis for UK MSR development, the Moltex SSR.

* from Flibe Energy, ThorCon, Moltex, Seaborg Technologies, Terrestrial Energy and Transatomic Power.

In the normal or basic MSR concept, the fuel is a molten mixture of lithium and beryllium fluoride (FLiBe) salts with dissolved low-enriched uranium (U-235 or U-233) fluorides (UF 4 ). The core consists of unclad graphite moderator arranged to allow the flow of salt at about 700°C and at low pressure. Much higher temperatures are possible but not yet tested. Heat is transferred to a secondary salt circuit and thence to steam or process heat. The basic design is not a fast neutron reactor, but with some moderation by the graphite is epithermal (intermediate neutron speed) and breeding ratio is less than 1.

However, this concept, with fuel dissolved in the salt, is further from commercialisation than solid fuel designs, where the ceramic fuel may be set in prisms, plates, or pebbles, or one design with liquid fuel in static tubes. Reprocessing that fuel salt online is even further from commercialization.

Considering liquid-fuel MSR designs, thorium can be dissolved with the uranium in a single fluid MSR, known as a homogeneous design. Two-fluid, or heterogeneous MSRs, would have fertile salt containing thorium in a second loop separate from the fuel salt containing fissile uranium or plutonium and could operate as a breeder reactor (MSBR). Here, the U-233 is progressively removed* and transferred to the primary circuit. However, graphite degradation from neutron flux limits the useful life of the reactor core with the fuel and breeding fluids in close juxtaposition, and in the 1960s it was assumed that the entire reactor vessel in the two-fluid design would be replaced after about eight years.**

* e.g. by bubbling fluorine through the salt so that UF 6 is formed and removed as a gas. The UF 6 is reduced and added to the fuel stream.

** Graphite is used to slow neutrons in epithermal designs, and deteriorates in a high neutron flux environment. The rate of damage increases with temperature, which is a particular problem with MSRs at 700°C.

In liquid-fuel MSR designs the fission products dissolve in the fuel salt and are ideally removed continuously in an adjacent online reprocessing loop and replaced with fissile uranium, plutonium and other actinides or, potentially, fertile Th-232 or U-238. Meanwhile caesium and iodine in particular remain secure in the molten salt. Xenon is removed rapidly by outgassing, but protactinium-233 is a problem with thorium as a fuel source. (It is an intermediate product in producing U-233 and is a major neutron absorber.) Constant removal of fission products means that a much higher fuel burn-up could be achieved (> 50%) and the removal of fission products means less decay heat to contend with after reactor shutdown. Actinides are fully recycled and remain in the reactor until they fission or are converted to higher actinides which do so. Hence fissile plutonium is largely consumed, and contributes significant energy. The high-level waste would comprise fission products only, hence with shorter-lived radioactivity.

Compared with solid-fuelled reactors, MSR systems with circulating fuel salt are claimed to have lower fissile inventories*, no radiation damage constraint on fuel burn-up, no requirement to fabricate and handle solid fuel or solid used fuel, and a homogeneous isotopic composition of fuel in the reactor. Actinides are less-readily formed from U-233 than in fuel with atomic mass greater than 235. These and other characteristics may enable MSRs to have unique capabilities and competitive economics for actinide burning and extending fuel resources. Safety is high due to passive cooling up to any size. Also, several designs have freeze plugs so that if excessive temperatures are reached, the primary salt will be drained by gravity away from the moderator into dump tanks configured to prevent criticality.

* In particular, a small inventory of weapons-fissile material (Pu-242 being the dominant Pu isotope remaining), and low fuel use (the French self-breeding variant claims 50kg of thorium and 50kg U-238 per billion kWh).

MSRs have large negative temperature and void coefficients of reactivity, and are designed to shut down due to expansion of the fuel salt as temperature increases beyond design limits. The negative temperature and void reactivity coefficients passively reduce the rate of power increase in the case of an inadvertent control rod withdrawal (technically known as a ‘reactivity insertion’). When tests were made on the MSRE, a control rod was intentionally withdrawn during normal reactor operations at full power (8 MWt) to observe the dynamic response of core power. Such was the rate of fuel salt thermal expansion that reactor power levelled off at 9 MWt without any operator intervention.

The MSR thus has a significant load-following capability where reduced heat abstraction through the boiler tubes leads to increased coolant temperature, or greater heat removal reduces coolant temperature and increases reactivity. Primary reactivity control is using the secondary coolant salt pump or circulation which changes the temperature of the fuel salt in the core, thus altering reactivity due to its strong negative reactivity coefficient. The MSR works at near atmospheric pressure, eliminating the risk of explosive release of volatile radioactive materials.

One MSR developer, Moltex, has put forward a molten salt heat storage concept ( GridReserve ) to enable the reactor to supplement intermittent renewables. Hot nitrate salt at about 600°C is transferred to storage tanks which are able to hold eight hours of reactor output at 2.5 GW thermal (as used in solar CSP plants). The heat store is said to add only £3/MWh to the levelised cost of electricity.

In the MSBR, the reactor-grade U-233 bred in the secondary circuit needs to be removed, or it will fission there and contaminate that circuit with ‘hot’ fission products. Therefore in practice the protactinium (Pa-233) formed from the thorium needs to be removed before it decays to U-233*, but this process is unproven at any scale. It is relatively easy to remove the U-233 from the Pa-233 by fluorination to UF 6 before reducing it to UF 4 for adding to the primary fuel salt circuit. However, the U-233 is contaminated with up to 400 ppm U-232 which complicates processing, due to its highly gamma-active decay progeny.

* Th-232 gains a neutron to form Th-233, which soon beta decays (half-life 22 minutes) to protactinium-233. The Pa-233 (half-life of 27 days) decays into U-233. Some U-232 is also formed via Pa-232 along with Th-233, and a decay product of this is very gamma active.

MSRs would normally operate at much higher temperatures than LWRs – up to at least 700°C, and hence have potential for process heat. Up to this temperature, satisfactory structural materials are available. ‘Alloy N’ is a nickel-based alloy (Ni-Cr-Mo-Si) developed at ORNL specifically for MSRs with fluoride salts.

Primary and secondary cooling, the fluoride salts

Fluoride salts have very low vapour pressure even at red heat, carry more heat than the same volume of water, have reasonably good heat transfer properties, are not damaged by radiation, do not react violently with air or water, and are inert to some common structural metals. However having the fuel in solution also means that the primary coolant salt becomes radioactive, complicating maintenance procedures, and the chemistry of the salt must be monitored closely to maintain a chemically reduced state to minimise corrosion. Also the beryllium in the salt is toxic, which leads to at least one design avoiding it, though this requires higher temperatures to keep LiF liquid. LiF however can carry a higher concentration of uranium than FLiBe, allowing less enrichment. There are difficulties with plutonium and other TRU fluorides in fluoride solvents.

Lithium used in the salt must be fairly pure Li-7, since Li-6 produces tritium when (readily) fissioned by neutrons. Li-7 has a very small neutron cross-section (0.045 barns). This means that lithium must be enriched beyond its natural 92.5% Li-7 level to minimise tritium production. Lithium-7 is being produced at least in Russia and possibly China today as a by-product of enriching lithium-6 to produce tritium for thermonuclear weapons. See also Lithium paper.

LiF is exceptionally stable chemically, and the LiF-BeF 2 mix ('FLiBe')* is eutectic (at 459°C it has a lower melting point than either ingredient – LiF is about 500°C). It boils at 1430°C. It is favoured in MSR and AHTR primary cooling and when uncontaminated has a low corrosion effect. The three nuclides (Li-7, Be, F) are among the few to have low enough thermal neutron capture cross-sections not to interfere with fission reactions.

* Approx. 2:1 molar, hence sometimes represented as Li 2 BeF 4 . 

LiF without the toxic beryllium solidifies at about 500°C and boils at about 1200°C. FLiNaK (LiF-NaF-KF) is also eutectic and solidifies at 454°C and boils at 1570°C. It has a higher neutron cross-section than FLiBe or LiF but can be used in intermediate cooling loops. Sodium-beryllium fluoride (BeF 2 -NaF) solidifying at 385°C is used as fuel salt in one design for cost reasons.

The hot molten salt in the primary circuit can be used with secondary salt circuit or secondary helium coolant generating power via the Brayton cycle as with HTR designs, with potential thermal efficiencies of 48% at 750°C to 59% at 1000°C, or simply with steam generators. In industrial applications molten fluoride salts (possibly simply cryolite – Na-Al fluoride) are a preferred interface fluid in a secondary circuit between the nuclear heat source and any chemical plant. The aluminium smelting industry provides substantial experience in managing them safely.

Most secondary coolant salts do not use lithium, for cost reasons. ZrF 4 -NaF-KF, ZrF 4 -KF, NaF-BeF 2 eutectic mixes are usual, as well as LiF-NaF-KF (FLiNaK).

In the secondary cooling circuit of the AHTR concept, air is compressed, heated, flows through gas turbines producing electricity, enters a steam recovery boiler producing steam that produces additional electricity, and exits to the atmosphere. Added peak power can be produced by injecting natural gas (or hydrogen in the future) after nuclear heating of the compressed air to raise gas temperatures and plant output, giving it rapidly variable output (of great value in grid stability and for peak load demand where renewables have significant input). This is described as an air Brayton combined-cycle (ABCC) system in secondary circuit.

In the 1960s MSRE, an alternative secondary coolant salt considered was 8% NaF + 92% NaF-BeF 2  with melting point 385°C, though this would be more corrosive.

Chloride salts, fast spectrum reactors

Chloride salts have some attractive features compared with fluorides, in particular the actinide trichlorides form lower melting point solutions and have higher solubility for actinides so can contain significant amounts of transuranic elements. PuCl 3 in NaCl has been well researched. While NaCl has good nuclear, chemical and physical properties, its high melting point means it needs to be blended with MgCl 2 or CaCl 2 , the former being preferred in eutectic, and allowing the addition of actinide trichlorides. The major isotope of chlorine, Cl-35 gives rise to Cl-36 as an activation product – a long-lived energetic beta source, so Cl-37 is much preferable in a reactor.

A British design contains the chloride fuel salt in vertical tubes and relies on convection to circulate the secondary salt coolant, which is a fluoride mix.

Fast spectrum MSRs (MSFRs) can have conversion ratios ranging from burner to converter to breeder. This may be within a single unit as the ratio of U-238 to transuranics (TRU) is varied – less U-238 giving more fission. They can be optimised for burning minor actinides, for breeding plutonium from U-238, or they may be open-cycle power plants without heavy metal separation from fission products. The fast neutron spectrum allows the possibility of not having onsite processing to remove TRUs. While fission products have relatively large neutron capture cross sections in the thermal energy range, the capture cross sections at higher energies is much lower, allowing much greater fission product build-up in an MSFR than in a thermal-spectrum MSR (gaseous fission products separate out of the liquid fuel). Eventually the fuel salt heavily loaded with fission products can be sent occasionally for batch processing or allowed to solidify and be disposed of in a repository. For full breeder configuration the fissile material needs to be progressively removed.   MSFRs have a negative void coefficient in the salt and a negative thermal reactivity feedback, so can maintain a high power density with passive safety. Freeze plugs to drain the fuel salt are a further passive safety measure as in other MSRs.

MSR research emphasis

American researchers and the China Academy of Sciences/SINAP are working primarily on solid fuel MSR technology. The main reason is that this is a realistic first step. In China this is focused on thorium-fuelled versions (see TMSR in China's dual programme section below). The technical difficulty of using molten salts is significantly lower when they do not have the very high activity levels associated with them bearing the dissolved fuels and wastes. The experience gained with component design, operation, and maintenance with clean salts makes it much easier then to move on and consider the use of liquid fuels, while gaining several key advantages from the ability to operate reactors at low pressure and deliver higher temperatures.

In the Generation IV programme for the MSR, collaborative R&D is pursued by interested members under the auspices of a provisional steering committee. There will be a long lead time to prototypes, and the R&D orientation has changed since the project was set up, due to increased interest. It now has two baseline concepts:

• The Molten Salt Fast Neutron Reactor (MSFR), which will take in thorium fuel cycle, recycling of actinides, closed Th/U fuel cycle with no U enrichment, with enhanced safety and minimal wastes. it is a liquid-fuel design.
• The Advanced High-Temperature Reactor (AHTR) – also known as the fluoride salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR) – with the same graphite and solid fuel core structures as the VHTR and molten salt as coolant instead of helium, enabling power densities 4 to 6 times greater than HTRs and power levels up to 4000 MWt with passive safety systems. A 5 MWt prototype is under construction at Shanghai Institute of Nuclear Applied Physics (SINAP, under the China Academy of Sciences).

The GIF 2014 Roadmap said that a lot of work needed to be done on salts before demonstration reactors were operational, and suggested 2025 as the end of the viability R&D phase.

Russia's Molten Salt Actinide Recycler and Transmuter (MOSART) is a fast reactor fuelled only by transuranic (TRU) fluorides from uranium and MOX LWR used fuel. It is part of the MARS project (minor actinide recycling in molten salt) involving RIAR, Kurchatov and other research organisations. The 2400 MWt design has a homogeneous core of Li-Na-Be or Li-Be fluorides without a graphite moderator and has reduced reprocessing compared with the original US design. Thorium may also be used, though it is described as a burner-converter rather than a breeder.

The SAMOFAR (Safety Assessment of the Molten Salt Fast Reactor) project, based in the Netherlands and funded by the European Commission, aims to prove the safety concepts of the MSFR in breeding mode from thorium. It plans advanced experimental and numerical techniques, to deliver a breakthrough in nuclear safety and optimal waste management, and to create a consortium of stakeholders. "The use of the Th-U fuel cycle is of particular interest to the MSR, because this reactor is the only one in which the Pa-233 can be stored in a hold-up tank to let it decay to U-233." The SAMOFAR consortium consists of 11 participants and is mainly undertaken by universities and research laboratories such as CNRS, JRC, CIRTEN, TU Delft and PSI, thereby exploiting each other’s expertise and infrastructure. It commenced in 2015.

China's dual programme

China plans for the TMSR-SF to be an energy solution for the northwest half of the country, with lower population density and little water. The application of water-free cooling in arid regions is envisaged from about 2025.

The China Academy of Sciences in January 2011 launched an R&D programme on LFTRs, known there as the thorium-breeding molten-salt reactor (Th-MSR or TMSR), and claimed to have the world's largest national effort on it, hoping to obtain full intellectual property rights on the technology. This is also known as the fluoride salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR). The TMSR Centre at Shanghai Institute of Nuclear Applied Physics (SINAP, under the China Academy of Sciences) at Jiading is responsible. In the 1970s SINAP worked towards building a 25 MWe MSR, but this endeavour gave way to the Qinshan PWR project.

SINAP has two streams of TMSR development – solid fuel (TRISO in pebbles or prisms/blocks) with once-through fuel cycle, and liquid fuel (dissolved in fluoride coolant) with reprocessing and recycle. A third stream of fast reactors to consume actinides from LWRs is planned. The aim is to develop both the thorium fuel cycle and non-electrical applications in a 20-30 year timeframe.

• The TMSR-SF stream has only partial utilization of thorium, relying on some breeding as with U-238, and needing fissile uranium input as well. It is optimized for high-temperature based hybrid nuclear energy applications. SINAP aimed at a 2 MW pilot plant initially, though this has been superseded by a simulator (TMSR-SF0). A 100 MWt demonstration pebble bed plant (TMSR-SF2) with open fuel cycle is planned by about 2025. TRISO particles will be with both low-enriched uranium and thorium, separately.
• The TMSR-LF stream claims full closed Th-U fuel cycle with breeding of U-233 and much better sustainability with thorium but greater technical difficulty. It is optimized for utilization of thorium with electrometallurgical pyroprocessing. SINAP aims for a 2 MWt pilot plant (TMSR-LF1) initially, then a 10 MWt experimental reactor (TMSR-LF2) by 2025, and a 100 MWt demonstration plant (TMSR-LF3) with full electrometallurgical reprocessing by about 2035, followed by 1 a GW demonstration plant. The TMSR-LF timeline is about ten years behind the SF one.
• A TMSFR-LF fast reactor optimized for burning minor actinides is to follow.

SINAP sees molten salt fuel being superior to the TRISO fuel in effectively unlimited burn-up, less waste, and lower fabricating cost, but achieving lower temperatures (600°C+) than the TRISO fuel reactors (1200°C+). Near-term goals include preparing nuclear-grade ThF 4  and ThO 2  and testing them in a MSR. It appears that the postponement of building the 2 MW test reactor may be due to inadequate supplies of pure lithium-7.

The TMSR-SF programme is proceeding with preliminary engineering design in cooperation with the Nuclear Power Institute of China (NPIC) and Shanghai Nuclear Engineering Research & Design Institute (SNERDI). Nickel-based alloys are being developed for structures, along with very fine-grained graphite.

Two methods of tritium stripping are being evaluated, and also tritium storage.

The TMSR-SF0 is one-third scale and has a 370 kW electric heat source with FLiNaK primary coolant at 650°C and FLiNaK secondary coolant.

The 10 MWt TMSR-SF1 has 17% enriched TRISO fuel in 60mm pebbles, similar to HTR-PM fuel, and coolant at 630°C and low pressure. Primary coolant is FLiBe (with 99.99% Li-7) and secondary coolant is FLiNaK. Core height is 3 m, diameter 2.85 m, in a 7.8 m high and 3 m diameter pressure vessel. Residual heat removal is passive, by cavity cooling. A 20-year operating life was envisaged but the project is discontinued.

The 2 MWt TMSR-LF1 is under construction at Wu Wei in Gansu in a $3.3 billion programme. It will use fuel enriched to under 20% U-235, have a thorium inventory of about 50 kg and conversion ratio of about 0.1. FLiBe with 99.95% Li-7 would be used, and fuel as UF 4 . The project would start on a batch basis with some online refuelling and removal of gaseous fission products, but discharging all fuel salt after 5-8 years for reprocessing and separation of fission products and minor actinides for storage. It would proceed to a continuous process of recycling salt, uranium and thorium, with online separation of fission products and minor actinides. It would work up from about 20% thorium fission to about 80%.

Beyond these, a 373 MWt/168 MWe liquid-fuel MSR small modular reactor is planned, with supercritical CO 2 cycle in a tertiary loop at 23 MPa using Brayton cycle, after a radioactive isolation secondary loop. Various applications as well as electricity generation are envisaged. It would be loaded with 15.7 tonnes of thorium and 2.1 tonnes of uranium (19.75% enriched), with one kilogram of uranium added daily, and have 330 GWd/t burn-up with 30% of energy from thorium. Online refuelling would enable eight years of operation before shutdown, with the graphite moderator needing attention.

The US Department of Energy is collaborating with the China Academy of Sciences on the programme, which had a start-up budget of $350 million. TMSR commercial deployment is anticipated in the 2030s.

Other solid- or fixed-fuel types

Research on molten salt coolant has been revived at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in the USA with the Advanced High Temperature Reactor (AHTR). This is a larger reactor using a coated-particle graphite-matrix TRISO fuel like that in the GT-MHR (see the information paper on Small Nuclear Power Reactors ) and with molten fluoride (FLiBe) salt as primary coolant. It is also known as the Fluoride High Temperature Reactor (FHR). While similar to the gas-cooled HTR it operates at low pressure (less than 1 atmosphere) and higher temperature, and gives better heat transfer than helium. The FLiBe salt is used solely as coolant, and achieves temperatures of 750-1000°C or more while at low pressure. This could be used in thermochemical hydrogen manufacture.

A small version of the AHTR/FHR is the SmAHTR, with 125 MWt size-matched to early process heat markets, or producing 50+MWe. The operating temperature is 700°C with FLiBe primary coolant and three integral heat exchangers. It is truck transportable, being 9m long and 3.5m diameter. Fuel is 19.75% enriched uranium in TRISO particles in graphite blocks or fuel plates. The refuelling interval is 2.5 to 4 years depending on fuel configuration. Secondary coolant is FLiNaK to Brayton cycle, and for passive decay heat removal, separate auxiliary loops go to air-cooled radiators. Later versions are intended to reach 850° to 1000°C, using materials yet to be developed.

AHTR reactor sizes of 1500 MWe/3600 MWt are envisaged, with capital costs estimated at less than $1000/kW.

In the secondary cooling circuit, air is compressed, heated, flows through gas turbines producing electricity, enters a steam recovery boiler producing steam that produces additional electricity, and exits to the atmosphere. Added peak power can be produced by injecting natural gas (or hydrogen in the future) after nuclear heating of the compressed air to raise gas temperatures and plant output, giving it rapidly variable output (of great value in grid stability and for peak load demand where renewables have significant input). This is described as an air Brayton combined-cycle (ABCC) system in secondary circuit.

Kairos Power FHR and Hermes

Kairos Power in the USA has designed a 320 MWt/140 MWe fluoride (FLiBe) salt-cooled high temperature reactor (KP-FHR) which it plans to build at the East Tennessee Technology Park at Oak Ridge, Tennessee, in collaboration with Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The reactor uses 19.75% enriched TRISO fuel in pebble form with online refuelling and operates at up to 650°C. Secondary circuit salt is ‘solar’ nitrate, feeding a steam generator ('60/40 nitrate salt', i.e. 60:40 by weight sodium nitrate to potassium nitrate). It has passive shutdown and decay heat removal. The prototype is the Hermes reduced-scale test reactor (<50 MWt), selected by the DOE in December 2020 for a $629 million programme over seven years (DOE share $303 million from the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program). In May 2021 the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) agreed to provide engineering, operations, and licensing support for the Hermes project. TVA holds an early site permit for the Clinch River site.

Moltex Energy's  Stable Salt Reactor (SSR) is a conceptual UK reactor design that, like all conventional reactors in operation, relies on convection from static vertical fuel tubes in the core to convey heat to the reactor coolant. Because the nuclear material is contained in fuel assemblies, standard industrial pumps can be used for the low radioactivity coolant salt. Core temperature is 500-600°C, at atmospheric pressure. Decay heat is removed by natural air convection.

Fuel tubes of nickel-chromium alloy three-quarters filled with the molten fuel salt (60% NaCl, 40% Pu, U & lanthanide trichlorides) are grouped into fuel assemblies which are similar to those used in standard reactors and use similar structural materials. The individual fuel tubes are vented so that fission product gases escape into the coolant salt, which is a NaF-KF-ZrF 4 mix (Li-7 fluoride is avoided for cost reasons). The assemblies can be moved laterally without removing them. Refuelling is thus continuous online, and after five years depleted assemblies are stored at one side of the pool pending reprocessing.

SSR factory-produced modules are 150 MWe containing fuel, pumps, primary heat exchanger, control blades and instrumentation. Several, up to gigawatt-scale, can share a reactor tank, half-filled with the coolant salt which transfers heat away from the fuel assemblies to the peripheral steam generators, essentially by convection, at atmospheric pressure. There are three versions: the SSR-W (Stable Salt Reactor – Wasteburner); the SSR-U (uranium-fuelled); and the SSR-Th (thorium).

The SSR-W is simplest and cheapest, due to compact core and no moderator. The primary fissile fuel in this original fast reactor version was to be plutonium-239 chloride with minor actinides and lanthanides, recovered from LWR fuel or from an SSR-U reactor. In 2020 the SSR-W fuel was 25% reactor-grade PuCl 3 with 30% UCl 3 and 45% KCl. This is in 451 fuel assemblies in a hexagonal array. Primary coolant salt is ZrF 4 -KF stabilized with ZrF 2 at maximum temperature of 590°C. Secondary coolant is nitrate salt buffer. Burn-up is 120-200 GWd/t. A 750 MWt/300 MWe demonstration plant was envisaged, the SSR-W300. However, a limited market for this version is anticipated. An agreement has been signed with New Brunswick Power for initial deployment at Point Lepreau in Canada, and in March 2021 the Canadian government announced a C$50.5 million investment towards this. In April 2021 plans were confirmed for this plus a plant for recycling used Canadian nuclear fuel for it. In November 2020 the two companies were joined by ARC Canada in setting up an SMR vendor cluster there. A Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission pre-licensing vendor design review has commenced.

The company then announced the physically larger and more expensive SSR-U ‘global workhorse version’ of its design, with a thermal neutron spectrum running on LEU fluorides (up to 7% enriched) with graphite built into the fuel assemblies, which increases the size of the core. It runs at a higher temperature than the fast version – minimum 600°C – with ZrF 4 -NaF coolant salt stabilized with ZrF 2 . As well as electricity, hydrogen production is its purpose. It is designed to be compatible with thorium breeding to U-233. It is seen as having a much larger potential market, and initial deployment in the UK in the 2030s is anticipated, with potential for replacing CCGT and coal plants.

In the SSR-Th, thorium would be in the coolant salt and the U-233 produced is progressively dissolved in bismuth at the bottom of the salt pool. This contains U-238 to denature it. Once the desired level of U-233 is achieved, the bismuth with uranium would be taken out batch-wise, and the mixed-isotope uranium is chlorinated to become fuel. If the fuel is used in a fast reactor, plutonium and actinides can be added.

Moltex has also put forward its GridReserve molten salt heat storage concept to enable the SSR-W reactor to supplement intermittent renewables, and so that the 300 MWe reactor can peak at up to 900 MWe from the heat bank of secondary coolant salt.

Mark 1 Pebble Bed FHR

This was a pre-conceptual US design completed in 2014 to evaluate the potential benefits of FHR technology. A consortium including University of California, Berkeley, Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Westinghouse designed it as a 236 MWt/100 MWe pebble-bed FHR , with annular core, operating at 700°C. It is designed for modular construction, and from 100 MWe base-load it is able to deliver 240 MWe with gas co-firing for peak loads. Fuel pebbles are 30 mm diameter, much less than gas-cooled HTRs. The project looked at how FHRs might be coupled to a Brayton combined-cycle turbine to generate power, design of a passive decay heat removal system, and the annular pebble bed core. The PB-FHR has negative void reactivity and passive decay heat removal.

Other liquid-fuel types: two-fluid breeders

Liquid fluoride thorium reactor.

The liquid fluoride thorium reactor (LFTR) is a heterogeneous MSR design which breeds its U-233 fuel from a fertile blanket of lithium-beryllium fluoride (FLiBe) salts with thorium fluoride. The thorium-232 captures neutrons from the reactor core to become protactinium-233, which decays (27-day half-life) to U-233. It may be possible to separate Pa-233 on-line and let it decay to U-233. Otherwise, newly-formed U-233 forms soluble uranium tetrafluoride (UF 4 ), which is converted to gaseous uranium hexafluoride (UF 6 ) by bubbling fluorine gas through the salt (which does not chemically affect the less-reactive thorium tetrafluoride). The volatile uranium hexafluoride is captured, reduced back to soluble UF 4 by hydrogen gas, and finally is added to the FLiBe core to serve as fissile fuel. A complication is that traces of U-232 are formed, reporting with the U-233, and having highly gamma-active decay progeny.

LFTRs can rapidly change their power output, and hence be used for load-following. Because they are expected to be inexpensive to build and operate, 100 MWe LFTRs could be used as peak and back-up reserve power units.

Flibe Energy in the USA is studying a 40 MW two-fluid graphite-moderated thermal reactor concept based on the 1960s-'70s US molten-salt reactor programme. It uses lithium fluoride/beryllium fluoride (FLiBe) salt as its primary coolant in both circuits. Fuel is uranium-233 bred from thorium in FLiBe blanket salt. Fuel salt circulates through graphite logs. Secondary loop coolant salt is sodium-beryllium fluoride (BeF 2 -NaF). A 2 MWt pilot plant is envisaged, and eventually 2225 MWt commercial plants.

Other liquid fuel types: single-fluid, thermal spectrum

Integral msr.

Canada-based Terrestrial Energy  has designed the Integral MSR. This simplified MSR, based closely on the Oak Ridge MSRE, integrates the primary reactor components, including primary heat exchangers to secondary clean salt circuit, in a sealed and replaceable core vessel that has a projected life of seven years. The IMSR will operate at 600-700°C, which can support many industrial process heat applications. It operates in the thermal neutron spectrum with a hexagonal arrangement of graphite elements forming the moderator. The fuel-salt is a eutectic of low-enriched (2-4%) uranium-235 fuel (as UF 4 ) and a fluoride carrier salt – likely sodium rubidium fluoride. Initially no Li or Be will be used but there is potential to change to FLiBe – at atmospheric pressure. Secondary loop coolant salt is ZrF 4 -KF. Multiple pumps and six heat exchangers allow for redundancy. Emergency cooling and residual heat removal are passive. When the sealed core is replaced after seven years, it is then left for fission products to decay. Each plant would have space for two reactors, allowing seven-year changeover, with the used unit removed for off-site reprocessing when it has cooled.

The IMSR was designed in three sizes: 80 MWt (32.5 MWe), 300 MWt, and 600 MWt but the current concept is 440 MWt/195 MWe. The total levelized cost of electricity from the largest is projected to be competitive with natural gas. The smallest is designed for off-grid, remote power applications, and as a prototype. The company completed the first of three phases in the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission's pre-licensing vendor design review in October 2018. It aims to have the first IMSRs in operation before 2030.

Transatomic TAP

Transatomic Power  is a new US company partly funded by Founders Fund and aiming to develop a single-fluid MSR using very low-enriched uranium fuel (1.8%) or the entire actinide component of used LWR fuel. The TAP reactor has an efficient zirconium hydride* moderator and a LiF-based fuel salt bearing the UF 4  and actinides, hence a very compact core. The secondary coolant is FLiNaK salt (LiF-KF-NaF) to a steam generator.

* as used in TRIGA research reactors and TOPAZ and SNAP reactors for space programme.

Owing to the ZrH moderator, there are significantly more neutrons in the thermal region (less than 1 eV) compared with a graphite moderator, thereby enabling the reactor to generate power from very low-enriched uranium or used LWR fuel. The epithermal (1 eV - 1 MeV) spectrum is lower than that with graphite, but in the fast spectrum (over 1 MeV) the neutron flux is greater than with graphite moderator, and therefore contributes strongly to actinide burning. It would give up to 96% actinide burn-up. Fission products are mostly removed batch-wise and fresh fuel added. In addition to negative void and thermal coefficients, the moderator starts to fail at higher temperatures due to hydrogen loss. Decay heat removal can be by convection.

After a 20 MWt demonstration reactor, the envisaged first commercial plant will be 1250 MWt/550 MWe running at 44% thermal efficiency with 650°C in the primary loop, using a steam cycle. The overnight cost for an nth-of-a-kind 550 MWe plant, including lithium-7 inventory and online fission product removal and storage, is estimated at $2 billion with a three-year construction schedule. A version of the reactor may utilize thorium fuel.

The company had to withdraw some exaggerated claims concerning actinide burn-up made in MIT Technology Review in 2016. In September 2018 the company announced that it would cease operations and make its intellectual property freely available online.

The Fuji MSR is a 100-200 MWe graphite-moderated design to operate as a near-breeder with ThF 4 -UF 4 fuel salt and FLiBe coolant at 700°C.  It can consume plutonium and actinides, and be from 100 to 1000 MWe. Batch reprocessing. It is being developed internationally by a Japanese, Russian and US consortium: the International Thorium Molten Salt Forum (ITMSF), based in Japan. It is derived from the Oak Ridge MSBR, and several variants have been designed, including a 10 MWe mini Fuji. Thorium Tech Solutions Inc (TTS) plan to commercialise the Fuji concept, and is working on it with the Halden test reactor in Norway.

Martingale in the USA is designing the ThorCon MSR, which is a 250 MWe scaled-up Oak Ridge MSRE. It is a single-fluid thorium converter reactor in the thermal spectrum, graphite moderated. It uses a combination of U-233 from thorium and low-enriched U-235 from mined uranium. Fuel salt is sodium-beryllium fluoride (BeF 2 -NaF) with dissolved uranium and thorium tetrafluorides (Li-7 fluoride is avoided for cost reasons). Secondary loop coolant salt is also sodium-beryllium fluoride. It operates at 700°C. There is no on-line processing – this takes place in a centralized plant at the end of the core life, with off-gassing of some fission products meanwhile. A pilot plant would be similar to the mini Fuji.

Several 550 MWt units would comprise a power station, and a 1000 MWe Thorcon plant would comprise about 200 factory- or shipyard-build modules installed below grade (30 m down). All components are deigned to be easily and frequently replaced. For instance, every four years the entire primary loop would be changed out, returned to a centralized recycling facility, decontaminated, disassembled, inspected, and refurbished. Incipient problems would be rectified and major upgrades could be introduced without significantly disrupting power generation. The company claims generation costs of 3 to 5 c/kWh depending on scale, and is "targeting its first installations in forward-looking countries that support technology-neutral nuclear regulations and see the benefits of the license-by-test process."

Seaborg Compact Molten Salt Reactor

Seaborg Technologies in Denmark (founded 2015) has a thermal-epithermal single fluid reactor design for a 50 MWt pilot unit Compact Molten Salt Reactor (CMSR) with a view to 250 MWt commercial modular units fuelled by spent LWR fuel and thorium. Fuel salt is Li-7 fluoride initially with uranium as fluoride. Later, thorium, plutonium and minor actinides as fluorides are envisaged as fuel, hence the reactor being called a waste burner. This is pumped through the graphite column core and heat exchanger. Fission products are extracted online. Secondary coolant salt is FLiNaK, at 700°C. Spent LWR fuel would have the uranium extracted for recycle, leaving plutonium and minor actinides to become part of the MSR fuel, with thorium. The company claims very fast power ramp time. High temperature output will allow application to hydrogen production, synthentic fuels, etc .

In March 2017 the public funding agency Innovation Fund Denmark made a grant to Seaborg to "build up central elements in its long-term strategy and position itself for additional investments required to progress towards commercial maturity." This is the first Danish investment into nuclear fission research since the country introduced a ban on nuclear power in 1985. In December 2020 the American Bureau of Shipping (ABS) issued a feasibility statement regarding the reactor’s use on barges. This is the first stage in the ABS's five-phase New Technology Qualification process. Seaborg aims to deploy the first full-scale prototype power barge by 2025.

Other liquid fuel types: single-fluid, fast spectrum

Southern co, mcfr.

Southern Company Services in the USA is developing a molten chloride fast reactor (MCFR) with TerraPower, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) – which hosts the work, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and Vanderbilt University. No details are available, and it is not certain that it is a single-fluid type. However, fuel is in the chloride salt (see section above) and as a fast reactor it can burn U-238, actinides and thorium as well as used light water reactor fuel, requiring no enrichment apart from the initial fuel load (these details from TerraPower, not Southern). It is reported to be large.

In January 2016 the US DOE awarded a Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear (GAIN) grant to the project, worth up to $40 million. In August 2016 Southern Nuclear Operating Company signed an agreement to work with X-energy to collaborate on development and commercialization of their respective small reactor designs. With TerraPower and ORNL, X-energy is designing the Xe-100 pebble-bed HTR of 48 MWe.

Elysium MCSFR

Elysium Industries in the USA and Canada have the Molten Chloride Salt Fast Breeder Reactor (MCSFR) design with fuel in the chloride salt. It operates below grade at near atmospheric pressure. Primary fuel salt and secondary salt convey heat to steam generators at 650°C. It is designed to load-follow. A range of sizes from 125 to 3000 MWt (50 MWe to 1200 MWe) are under consideration. Used fuel from light water reactors or depleted uranium with some plutonium can fuel it though in 2020 fuel was shown as PuCl 3 with fission products, or 15% HALEU. Selected fission products are removed online. Passive safety includes a freeze plug. It has negative temperature and void coefficients. 

Notes & references

General sources.

Ho M.K.M., Yeoh G.H., & Braoudakis G., 2013, Molten Salt Reactors , in Materials and processes for energy: communicating current research and technological developments , ed A.Mendez-Vilas, Formatex Research Centre

Merle-Lucotte, E. et al 2009, Minimising the fissile inventory of the Molten Salt Fast Reactor, Advances in Nuclear Fuel Management IV (ANFM 2009), American Nuclear Society

Merle-Lucotte, E. et al 2007, The Thorium molten salt reactor: launching the thorium cycle while closing the current fuel cycle, ENC 2007

Forsberg, C.W., Peterson, P.F., Zhao, H.H. 2004, An advanced molten salt reactor using high-temperature reactor technology, American Nuclear Society

LeBlanc, D, 2009, Molten Salt Reactors: a new beginning for an old idea, Nuclear Engineering & Design 2010, Elsevier

Transatomic Power Corp., technical white paper, March 2014

Ignatiev, V & Feynberg, O, Kurchatov Inst, Molten Salt Reactor: overview and perspectives, OECD 2012

Appendix 6.0 Molten Salt Reactor, Generation IV Nuclear Energy Systems Ten-Year Program Plan – Fiscal Year 2007, Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (September 2007)

Hargraves, R & Moir, R, 2010, Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors, American Scientist 98

Fluoride-Salt-Cooled High-Temperature Reactors (FHRs) for Base-Load and Peak Electricity, Grid Stabilization, and Process Heat, Forsberg, Hu, Peterson, Sridharan, 2013, MIT

Wong, C & Merrill, B, 2004, Relevant MSRE and MSR Experience , ITER TBM Project Meeting at UCLA, 23-25 February 2004

Energy Process Developments Ltd, July 2015, MSR Review: Feasibility of Developing a Pilot Scale Molten Salt Reactor in the UK , July 2015

Sherrell Greene, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, SmAHTR – the Small Modular Advanced High Temperature Reactor (September 2010)

Xu, Hongjie, SINAP, Status and Perspective of TMSR in China , presented at the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) Molten Salt Reactor Workshop at the the Paul Scherrer Institute on 24 January 2017

Holcomb D.E. et al, July 2011, Fast Spectrum Molten Salt Reactor Options, ORNL

1. Background, Status, and Issues Related to the Regulation of Advanced Spent Nuclear Fuel Recycle Facilities , A White Paper of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Advisory Committee on Nuclear Waste and Materials, NUREG-1909 (June 2008) [ Back ]

2. J.R. Engel et al. , Conceptual Design Characteristics of a Denatured Molten-Salt Reactor with Once-Through Fueling , Engineering Technology Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (July 1980) [ Back ]

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