futures research methodology version 3.0

The Futures Research Methodology is the largest collection of futures tools and methods ever published. From simple tools to more complex methodologies, this resource features a wide-variety of foresight activities, many of which can be incorporated into classes at any level.

This site is affiliated with Teach the Future , a nonprofit dedicated to bringing futures thinking to classrooms around the world.

Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0

by Jerome C. Glenn; Theodore J. Gordon

About the book

Comprehensive and internationally peer-reviewed handbook on tools and methods for forecasting and analysis of global change. Each chapter in this series gives an executive overview of each method's history, description, primary and alternative usages, strengths and weaknesses, use in combination with other methods, and speculation about future usage. Some also contain appendixes with applications and sources for further information. All chapters are presented in an MsWord (.doc) Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0 is the largest, most comprehensive collection of internationally peer-reviewed handbook on methods and tools to explore future possibilities ever assembled in one resource in history. There are far more detailed book on specific methods, but no other resource comes close to giving the overview of such a range of methods. Each of these 39 chapters gives an executive overview of each method's history, description, primary and alternative usages, strengths and weaknesses, uses in combination with other methods, and speculation about future evolution of the method. Some also contain appendixes with applications, links to software, and sources for further information. Version 3.0 has not only added new chapters, it has also updated and improved the editing of the previous chapters making this version a significant improvement on the previous one. Over half of the chapters were written by the inventor of the method or by a significant contributor to the method s evolution: Table of Contents 1. Introduction to Futures Research Jerome C. Glenn 2. Environmental Scanning Theodore J. Gordon and Jerome C. Glenn 3. Text Mining for Technology Foresight Alan L. Porter 4. Delphi Theodore J. Gordon 5. Real-Time Delphi Theodore J. Gordon 6 The Futures Wheel Jerome C. Glenn 7. The Futures Polygon Antonio Pacinelli 8. Trend Impact Analysis Theodore J. Gordon 9. Cross-Impact Analysis Theodore J. Gordon 10. Wild Cards John Petersen and Karlheintz Steinmueller 11. Structural Analysis Jacques Arcade, Michel Godet, Francis Meunier, Fabrice Roubelat 12. The Systems Perspectives Allenna Leonard with Stafford Beer 13. Decision Modeling The Futures Group International 14. Substitution Analysis Theodore J. Gordon 15. 14. Statistical Modeling Antonio Pacinelli 16. Technology Sequence Analysis Theodore J. Gordon 17. Morphological Analysis Tom Ritchey 18. Relevance Trees The Futures Group International and Theodore J. Gordon 19. Scenarios Jerome C. Glenn and The Futures Group International 20. A Toolbox for Scenario Planning Michel Godet 21. Interactive Scenarios Theodore J. Gordon 22. Robust Decisionmaking Robert Lempert, Steven Popper, Steve Bankes (RAND Corporation) 23. Participatory Methods Jerome C. Glenn 24. Simulation and Games Erwin Rausch with additions from Frank Catanzaro 25. Genius Forecasting, Intuition, and Vision Jerome C. Glenn 26. Prediction Markets Justin Wolfers and Justin Zitzewitz 27. Using Vision in Futures Clem Bezold 28. Normative Forecasting Joe Coates and Jerome C. Glenn 29. S&&T Road Mapping Theodore J. Gordon 30. Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) Geoffrey R. Coyle 31. Agent Modeling (demo software) Theodore J. Gordon 32. Chaos and Non-Linear Dynamics Theodore Gordon 33. Multiple Perspective Concept Harold Linstone 34. Heuristics Modeling Sam Cole 35. Causal Layered Analysis Sohail Inayatullah 36. Personal Futures Verne Wheelwright 37.State of the Future Index Theodore J. Gordon 38. SOFI Software System Peter Yim 39. Integration, Comparisons, and Frontiers of Futures Research Methods Theodore J. Gordon and Jerome C. Glenn

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Futures Research Methodology CD Version 3.0

Jerome Glenn, Ted Gordon from Millennium Project

The Futures Research Methodology is the largest collection of futures tools and methods ever published. From simple tools to more complex methodologies, this resource features a wide-variety of foresight activities, many of which can be incorporated into classes at any level.

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Futures Research Methodology: The Millennium Project: Version 3.0 CD-ROM – 30. April 2009

• ISBN-10 0981894119
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• Herausgeber ‏ : ‎ Milennium Project; 3.0 Edition (30. April 2009)
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Futures Research Methodology 3.0

Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0 is the largest, most comprehensive collection of internationally peer-reviewed handbook on methods and tools to explore future possibilities ever assembled in one resource.

Over half of the chapters were written by the inventor of the method or by a significant contributor to the method’s evolution.

FRM 3.0 contains 39 chapters totaling about 1,300 pages. Each method is treated in a separate file in word (.doc) and PDF format.

http://millennium-project.org/millennium/FRM-V3...

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The Millennium Project and beyond

ISSN : 1463-6689

Article publication date: 16 September 2013

Cordeiro, J.L. (2013), "The Millennium Project and beyond", Foresight , Vol. 15 No. 5. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-03-2013-0008

Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Article Type: Guest editorial From: foresight, Volume 15, Issue 5

The Millennium Project was founded in 1996 after a three-year feasibility study with the United Nations University, Smithsonian Institution, Futures Group International, and the American Council for the United Nations University (UNU). It is now an independent non-profit global participatory futures research think tank of futurists, scholars, business planners, and policy makers who work for international organizations, governments, corporations, NGOs, and universities. The Millennium Project currently manages a coherent and cumulative process that collects and assesses judgments from over 4,000 experts from close to 100 countries that have contributed with their views to The Millennium Project since its inception.

The State of the Future (SOF) (Glenn et al. , 2012) has been analyzing the 15 Global Challenges, year after year, besides other special studies and the State of the Future Index (SOFI), which monitors the variables that are getting better and the ones that are getting worse. The SOF print edition is just an executive summary with over 10,000 additional pages of accumulated research over the years.

The Futures Research Methodology (FRM) (Glenn and Gordon, 2012) is now on its third edition and it includes 39 chapters with over 1,300 pages describing the most important methodologies on futures research. The FRM version 3.0 was sponsored by the Rockefeller Foundation and it is the largest internationally peer-reviewed collection of methods to explore the future ever assembled in one source.

The Global Futures Intelligence System (GFIS) (The Millennium Project, 2013) is a new collective intelligence system that integrates all of the information, groups, and software of The Millennium Project in a single location. The GFIS is novel way to participate with and have access to a general overview of major global issues that can be read and understood in just 15 minutes, including historical data and future forecasts.

The Millennium Project is not a one-time study of the future, but provides an on-going capacity as a geographically and institutionally dispersed think tank. It was selected among the Best 7 Foresight Organizations by US Office of Energy, and it was a 2012 Computerworld laureate for its innovations in collective intelligence systems. Most annual State of the Future reports have been selected by the publication Future Survey as among the year’s best books on the future, the international journal Technological Forecasting & Social Change has dedicated several entire issues to the annual State of the Future ., and foresight reviewed the 2012 State of the Future as “strategic planning for the planet.”

Heiko A. von der Gracht and Inga-Lena Darkow (Institute for Futures Studies and Knowledge Management [IFK], EBS Business School, Wiesbaden, Germany, and members of the German Node of The Millennium Project) analyzed “The future role of logistics for global wealth: Scenarios and discontinuities until 2025.” Von der Gracht and Darkow researched global logistics scenarios with focus on the future contribution the logistics industry can make to the triple bottom line – people, planet and profit. Over 200 experts were asked to share their visions via a real-time Delphi (RTD) study. The results were further examined in futures workshops according to World Café methodology to developed 20 key Delphi projections for global logistics in 2025.

Aharon Hauptman and Yair Sharan (Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis and Forecasting [ICTAF],Tel-Aviv University, Israel, and members of the Israeli Node of The Millennium Project) analyzed “Foresight of evolving security threats posed by emerging technologies.” Hauptman and Sharan consider the overlooked “dark side” of new technologies, and their potential abuse by terrorists or organized crime. The EU-funded project FESTOS assesses security issues following a horizon scanning and a Delphi expert survey to rank the “abuse potential” and “threat intensity” of 33 emerging technologies. “Weak signals,” “wild cards” and a variant of the “futures wheel” method were used to construct four “scenario sketches” considering potential future threats.

William E. Halal (George Washington University, Washington DC, USA, Bangkok University, Thailand, and participant of the Cyber Node of The Millennium Project) wrote “Through the megacrisis: making the passage to global maturity.” Halal used an online survey to assess attitudes toward four scenarios defining the range of possible outcomes of the “global megacrisis,” with an improved Delphi method to estimate when emerging technologies are likely to enter mainstream use. An evolutionary perspective and “collective intelligence” methods helped to understand how the world could make the passage through today’s “global megacrisis” to a more sophisticated level of development by about 2020.

Tony Diggle (independent consultant, London, England, and member of the UK Node of The Millennium Project) worked on “Water: how collective intelligence initiatives can address this global challenge.” Diggle analyzes online collective intelligence systems that make it easier to set practical goals and monitor progress to send, receive and act on the latest research and new information. Recent developments by the World Water Assessment Panel (WWAP) of UNESCO, the International Water Association (IWA), and the IWA WaterWiki are considered, and then potential future developments are examined from a collective intelligence viewpoint dealing with water challenges.

Sven Hirsch, Paul Burggraf and Cornelia Daheim (Zpunkt the foresight company, Köln, Germany, and members of the German Node of The Millennium Project) consider “Scenario planning with integrated quantification – managing uncertainty in corporate strategy building.” Hirsch, Burggraf and Daheim present a practical methodology for establishing quantitative scenarios in a participative process within a business environment. Their method follows the classical scenario design process of key factor analysis, projection design, interaction analysis, and scenario selection. Each step helps to consolidate the qualitative and quantitative description of the strategic scenarios.

Pavel Nováek (Palacky University, Olomouc, Czech Republic, Czech Association of the Club of Rome, Prague, Czech Republic, and member of the Central European Node of The Millennium Project) considered “Thinking oriented towards the future: key to prosperity and sustainable development?” Nováek proposes a new methodology called the Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI) using 23 indicators. The FOTI is an approach close to the State of the Future Index (SOFI) developed by Theodore J. Gordon and the Millennium Project, but the FOTI should focus more on identifying how people are able to take into account future challenges and behave according to them, and less on the “state of the future” (measuring whether the indicators will improve or deteriorate).

Futurists often explain that the purpose of thinking about the future is not to predict what will happen, but rather to visualize possibilities and consider plausible alternatives. These papers are an important starting point to consider some of those possibilities and alternatives. Although we cannot know or determine the future, our aim with this Special Issue is to promote dialogue, facilitate creative thinking, and provide an additional platform for voices from The Millennium Project. We hope this special issue “The Millennium Project and Beyond” contributes to this important dialogue to create better futures for humanity.

Acknowledgements

The Guest Editor wants to thank personally three senior staff of The Millennium Project: Executive Director Jerome C. Glenn for his leadership, Senior Research Fellow Theodore J. Gordon for his wisdom, and Research Director Elizabeth Florescu for her diligence.

José Luis Cordeiro Director, Millennium Project, Venezuela Node, Caracas, Venezuela

Glenn, J.C. and Gordon, T.J. (2012), Futures Research Methodologies, Version 3.0 , The Millennium Project, Washington, DC, available at: http://http://millennium-project.org/millennium/FRM-V3.html Glenn, J.C., Gordon, T.J. and Florescu, E. (2012), 2012 State of the Future , The Millennium Project, Washington, DC, available at: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/2012SOF.html The Millennium Project (2013), Global Futures Intelligence System (GFIS) , The Millennium Project, Washington, DC, available at: https://themp.org

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EFP Brief No. 180: Emergence and Design in Foresight Methods

This paper focuses on an analysis of the Millennium Project’s “Futures Research Methodology – Version 3.0” report with the aim of making it more meaningful and useful particularly for foresight practitioners but also for users in general. The compilation of future methodologies is assessed in terms of the understanding of the nature of systems implied in the method and what it suggests as the best means of influencing systems. The analysis aims at improving our understand-ing of the wide range of knowledge, practices and assumptions these methods convey and enhancing our ability to learn about futures and expand our horizons of futures knowledge.

The Decision-making Landscape

The following analysis of the Millennium Project’s “Fu-tures Research Methodology – Version 3.0” starts from the claim that much of the sensitivity of an organisation derives from its members and their ability to flexibly apply different theories and methods. Practitioners need to pay more attention to theory and understand how the theory and the methods they use significantly influence the way they perceive their environment and the outcomes of strategic processes.

Figure 1 describes the landscape in which foresight methods are used. The figure identifies four distinct types of landscapes, two of which – engineering ap-proaches and systems thinking – have a long history, find widespread use and currently dominate thinking and practice in strategic management. The other two – mathematical complexity and social complexity – are not yet widely used and represent both a contrasting and a complementary view of how the future emerges.

Let me first clarify the differences in the basic assump-tions between these four approaches: The vertical di-mension looks at the nature of the possible ways of understanding systems and the horizontal one at the means of controlling or directing that system. In the vertical dimension, design is contrasted with emer-gence: engineering approaches and systems thinking represent design, and mathematical complexity and social complexity stand for more emergent processes.

How sense-making is accomplished and what kinds of solutions are provided in moving across time and space is at the heart of the model of analysis. By design, we mean the ability of a manager, expert or researcher to stand outside the system and design the system as a whole. In case of emergent systems, the system cannot be understood or managed as a whole by a manager, expert and researcher, or by anyone at all for that matter, because the system emerges through the interac-tion of actors who act on the basis of local knowledge and their own principles. In the horizontal dimension, we contrast rules that reduce ambiguity with heuristics that provide direction while allowing for a degree of ambiguity that can adapt to different and changing contexts. There is a design element to emergent sys-tems but not in the same way as in the case of designed systems. That is to say, there are various ways to influence the evolution of emergent systems, but they can-not be deliberately controlled or directed by any single actor or group of actors.

Communicating the Properties of the Methods

We can take the next step by placing the methods in the sense-making model (Figure 2 below). The model works as an effective communication tool capable of delivering a large amount of information about the methodology of Futures Research Methodology – Ver-sion 3.0, the properties of each method as well as the relationships between the methods. The analysis reveals that most of the methods pre-sented in Futures Research Methodology – Version 3.0 are designed to reduce ambiguity. They concentrate on knowing, or to be more precise, on providing more knowledge to a decision-making process. Most of the methods adopt a position outside the system in order to bring new information into the system. Other types of frequently used methods are those that seek to create an awareness of possible futures and what they con-vey. The embedded conception of causality, of how things happen, is that there is an actor capable of dis-covering the causalities and designing interventions that will lead to a desirable future.

There are methods that explicitly or implicitly rely on different causal assumptions about how things happen. The methods placed in the upper half of the model share the belief that things happen through the (local) interaction of agents. The movement towards a future is seen to depend on the other actors, the adaptive moves of a single actor influencing other actors’ strate-gies by creating new possibilities and constraints. Comparing the number of methods found in the upper part of the model to the number in the lower section, this approach would seem to be less popular among futurists than its design counterpart. However, some methods are constructed with the aim of reducing am-biguity and simulating emergent options. The smallest number of methods lies in the social complexity square indicating that there are few methods trying to provide direction in a not always orderly environment while allowing for some degree of ambiguity.

Next Steps towards More Conscious Strategies

We assume that the qualities of a method derive at least partly from assumptions about the basic nature of organisational life. The answers to these assumptions reveal three important properties of each method: how the method stands in respect to whether or how much managers are or should be in control, how ordered or chaotic the landscape where the actions take place is or will be, and finally what the means offered for shap-ing the future are.

It is perhaps correct to claim that methods presented in the lower left-hand square of Figure 1 are or have be-come well known and that they are also relatively easy to use. In the upper left-hand square, the methods are much more sophisticated; they often require some mathematical background and programming skills. Despite their sophistication, there exist some serious doubts concerning their capability of offering anything other than engineering approaches. In the lower right-hand square, systems approaches handle ambiguity better than more design-orientated approaches and offer more stability than emergent approaches but only work well in conditions where there are a limited number of interactions and the system can be designed. Finally, in the upper right-hand square, social complexity is presented as a field of possibility not yet fully utilized. It has not been widely adopted because its main strength is limited to dealing with poorly understood emergent, nonlinear phenomena and providing explanations and an understanding of a system’s direction in the absence of control of that system.

One more argument can be added to the ones pre-sented so far, namely that the business environment is becoming ever more complex. And one conclusion to be drawn from this should be that companies need to shift from ambiguity reducing strategies to ambiguity absorb-ing ones. All this calls for developing theoretical and methodological tools very different from those we use today. Such a shift would require incorporating emer-gence into our understanding of strategic processes and the possibility of a new kind of order arising from, or being found hidden within, complex phenomena, i.e. an order based on the tools and methods by which people make and unmake ordered and unordered worlds.

Download EFP Brief No. 180_Emergence and Design in Foresight Methods

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Schmidt, K. & Wagner, I. (2005) “Ordering Systems: Coordinative Practices and Artifacts in Archtec-tural Design and Planning”. In: Computer Supported Cooperative Work.

Shaw, P. (1997) “Intervening in the Shadow Systems of Organizations: Consulting from a Complexity Perspective.” Journal of Organizational Change Management 10 (3): 235-250.

Snowden, D. (2004) “Innovation as an objective of knowledge management. Part I the landscape of management.” IBM Business Journal.

Snowden, D. & Boone, M. E. (2007) “Leader´s Frame-work for Decision Making”. Harvard Business Review, November 2007.

Stacey, R (2001) Complex Responsive Processes in Organizations. Routledge. London.

Stacey, R. D. & Griffin, D. & Shaw, P. (2000) Complexity Management. Fad or Radical Challenge to Systems Thinking? Routledge. London & New York.

• Planning Committee
• GC1 Sustainable Development and Climate Change
• GC2 Clean Water
• GC3 Population and Resources
• GC4 Democratization
• GC5 Global Foresight and Decisionmaking
• GC6 Global Convergence of IT
• GC7 Rich-Poor Gap
• GC8 Health Issues
• GC9 Education and Learning
• GC10 Peace and Conflict
• GC11 Status of Women
• GC12 Transnational Organized Crime
• GC13 Energy
• GC14 Science and Technology
• GC15 Global Ethics
• Various Studies
• Global Futures Intelligence System
• Future Work/Technology 2050
• State of the Future Index
• Real-Time Delphi
• Workshops & Training
• Presentations & Speeches
• Publications
• Internships

International Governance Issues of the Transition from Artificial Narrow Intelligence to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

• Order English report: order download
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• Order Chinese version of the report: order download .

State of the Future

Since 1997, The Millennium Project has published 19 editions of The State of Future in 9 languages: English, Spanish, Chinese, French, Arabic, Japanese, Korean, Bulgarian, Italian. Most of the nineteen annual State of the Future reports were selected by Future Survey as among the year’s best books on the future.

Click here for more information and to order the available editions.

Work/Technology 2050: Scenarios and Actions

A pragmatic exploration of possible futures – choices and consequences – really exercised my imagination.

Futures Research Methodologies 3.0

Latin america by 2050. challenges, scenarios and actions.

25 Latin American futurists, from ten different  countries  develop, based on the concept of the 15 Global Challenges facing humanity by The Millennium Project and their holistic impact, an in-depth diagnosis of the main threats and opportunities that are currently and will be facing the Latin American region if current trends happen in the field.

Futures 2.0

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Special Studies

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State of the Future version 19.1

by Jerome C. Glenn, Elizabeth Florescu, and The Millennium Project Team

Pages: 238; includes some 50 graphs plus infographics for the 15 Global Challenges ISBN: 978-0-9882639-5-6 Library of Congress Control Number: 98-646672

“An important example of using scientific methods and collective intelligence to help us understand and act better for the future.” — Phil Mjwara, Director General, Ministry of Science & Technology, South Africa

“Outstanding report!” — Jim Spohrer, Director, Cognitive Opentech Group, IBM

“A high level, reliable intellectual compass for the conflict ridden, and uncertain world advancing toward the mid-century.” — Mihály Simai, former Chairman, United Nations University

“The indispensable guide for futurists and aspiring global citizens everywhere.” — Hazel Henderson, Futurist, author, CEO, Ethical Markets Media

“Without this kind of guidance, many people would lose their way and get lost in their decision making process.” — Julio Millan, President, Azteca Corporation, Mexico

“The State of the Future has proved useful for better addressing our resilience objectives.” — Lina Liakou, Thessaloniki Vice Mayor and Chief Resilience Officer

“Great source of inspiration and focus to our organizations.”

— Michael Bodekaer, CEO, Learn-Technologies

More Information

Executive Summary and Front matters – English (pdf)

Executive Summary (pdf): Arabic , Chinese , Greek , Portuguese , Spanish

Paperback Edition

Price: US$49.95 + shipping Discount for 10 copies or more: 40%

Electronic Editions (Downloadable PDF)

English (price: $29.95):

Futures Research Methodology — Version 3.0

Editors: Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon

• CD-ROM: 1300 pages
• Publisher: The Millennium Project; 3.0 edition (April 30, 2009)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0981894119
• ISBN-13: 978-0981894119
• Product Dimensions: 0.2 x 5.5 x 5.2 inches

The largest, most comprehensive collection of internationally peer-reviewed handbook on methods and tools to explore future possibilities ever assembled in one resource.

Over half of the chapters were written by the inventor of the method or by a significant contributor to the method’s evolution.

The electronic download- contains 39 chapters totaling about 1,300 pages. Each method is treated in a separate file in word (.doc) and PDF format.

The series begins with an introductory chapter to futures research and concludes with a synthesis of methods and speculation about the future of futures research methods. The other 37 chapters cover one specific method (e.g. Futures Wheel, Scenarios) or category of methods (e.g. Systems Perspectives, Normative Forecasting).

Each of the 37 chapters contains:

• an executive overview of each method’s history,
• description of the method
• primary and alternative usages,
• strengths and weaknesses,
• uses in combination with other methods, and
• speculation about future evolution of the method.
• Some also contain appendixes with applications, links to software, and sources for further information.

Version 3.0 has not only added new chapters, it has also updated and improved the editing of the previous chapters making this version a significant improvement on the previous one .

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

• Introduction to Futures Research, Jerome C. Glenn
• Environmental Scanning, Theodore J. Gordon and Jerome C. Glenn
• Text Mining for Technology Foresight, Alan L. Porter
• Delphi, Theodore J. Gordon
• Real-Time Delphi, Theodore J. Gordon
• The Futures Wheel, Jerome C. Glenn
• The Futures Polygon, Antonio Pacinelli
• Trend Impact Analysis, Theodore J. Gordon
• Cross-Impact Analysis, Theodore J. Gordon
• Wild Cards, John Petersen and Karlheintz Steinmueller
• Structural Analysis, Jacques Arcade, Michel Godet, Francis Meunier, Fabrice Roubelat
• The Systems Perspectives, Allenna Leonard with Stafford Beer
• Decision Modeling, The Futures Group International
• Substitution Analysis, Theodore J. Gordon
• Statistical Modeling, Antonio Pacinelli
• Technology Sequence Analysis, Theodore J. Gordon
• Morphological Analysis, Tom Ritchey
• Relevance Trees, The Futures Group International and Theodore J. Gordon
• Scenarios, Jerome C. Glenn and The Futures Group International
• A Toolbox for Scenario Planning, Michel Godet
• Interactive Scenarios, Theodore J. Gordon
• Robust Decision Making, Robert Lempert, Steven Popper, Steve Bankes (RAND Corporation)
• Participatory Methods, Jerome C. Glenn
• Simulation and Games, Erwin Rausch with additions from Frank Catanzaro
• Genius Forecasting, Intuition, and Vision, Jerome C. Glenn
• Prediction Markets, Justin Wolfers and Justin Zitzewitz
• Using Vision in Futures, Clem Bezold
• Normative Forecasting, Joe Coates and Jerome C. Glenn
• S&T Road Mapping, Theodore J. Gordon
• Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR), Geoffrey R. Coyle
• Agent Modeling (demo software), Theodore J. Gordon
• Chaos and Non-Linear Dynamics, Theodore Gordon
• Multiple Perspective Concept, Harold Linstone
• Heuristics Modeling, Sam Cole
• Causal Layered Analysis, Sohail Inayatullah
• Personal Futures, Verne Wheelwright
• State of the Future Index, Theodore J. Gordon
• SOFI Software System, Peter Yim
• Integration, Comparisons, and Frontiers of Futures Research Methods, Theodore J. Gordon and Jerome C. Glenn

Electronic Edition

Price: $49.50 US dollars

Price: $49.50 US dollars + shipping

Concepción Olavarrieta, Jerome C. Glenn, and Theodore J. Gordon

• Publisher: Millennium Project; 1 edition (August 1, 2014)
• Language: English; Spanish
• ISBN: 978-607-00-4892-0

FUTURES is the most comprehensive futures studies encyclopedic dictionary that exists to date. It comprises over 1,000 terms and methods used in futures studies. The work was initiated and coordinated by Concepción Olavarrieta, with review and edits of terms done by Theodore Gordon and Jerome Glenn, and with the contribution of more than 500 futurists from The Millennium Project network. It is available in English and Spanish. It can be downloaded as pdf file. More information Order

2015-16 State of the Future

• Paperback: 290 pages
• Publisher: The Millennium Project; 1 edition (August 1, 2015)
• Language: English; Spanish; Japanese.
• ISBN-10: 0988263920
• ISBN-13: 978-0988263925
• Package Dimensions: 8.4 x 5.8 x 0.7 inches

“A lucid, thought-provoking, strategically oriented exploration of the transforming world order.” — Mihaly Simai, former Chairman, United Nations University

“The State of the Future can make a difference in the world. Well done.” — Wendell Bell, Professor Emeritus, Yale University

“Global intelligence on the future of the world in the palm of your hand.” — Kurzweil AI News

“So important for many people around the world.” — Eleonora Masini, former Secretary and President, World Futures Studies Federation

“Absolutely worth the reader’s time… takes the reader much farther forward than most thinking.” — Defense & Foreign Affairs Policy Journal

“Strategic Planning for the Planet… remarkably articulate and prescient.” — Willian Halal, Foresight Journal

Executive Summary (pdf): Arabic , Chinese , Croatian , English , French , Japanese, Korean , Polish , Portuguese , Romanian , Spanish , Urdu

Paperback Edition (English):

Price: $39.95 US dollars + shipping

Electronic Edition:

Price: $29.95 US dollars

LATINOAMERICA 2030

by José Luis Cordeiro et al.

• Paperback: 128 pages
• Publisher: American Council for the UNU (December 19, 2012)
• ISBN: 978-1-4717313-5-8

Scenarios de Latinoamérica 2030 El Millennium Project inició un estudio de dos años sobre el futuro de Latinoamérica en 2009. La primera fase de este estudio consistió en la realización de una encuesta con la metodología Real-Time Delphi (RTD) durante los ejercicios 2009 – 2010, y un segundo estudio RTD que ha sido diseñado para integrar los resultados del primero en forma de escenarios de Latinoamérica 2030.

Más de 550 personas de alrededor de 60 países participaron en el estudio durante un período de siete semanas.

El Real-Time Delphi ayudó a identificar algunos desarrollos con alta probabilidad y gran relevancia (denominados “buena apuesta”) y otros con relativamente baja probabilidad pero gran relevancia (denominados “sorpresas”). Adicionalmente, los expertos corroboraron el “ascenso” de China y el posicionamiento de Brasil como el país más influyente de Latinoamérica.

Paperback Edition (English)

2013-14 state of the future.

by Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu

• Paperback: 256 pages
• Publisher: The Millennium Project; 1 edition (April 15, 2014)
• Language: English; Spanish; Arabic; Bulgarian; Korean.
• ISBN: 978-0-9882639-1-8
• Library of Congress Control Number: 98-646672

“The most influential annual report on what we know about the future of humanity.” — Paul Werbos, National Science Foundation “One of the premier guides to global future trends for asset managers.” — Hazel Henderson, President, Ethical Markets “Global intelligence on the future of the world in the palm of your hand.” — KurzweilAI News “Strategic Planning for the Planet… remarkably articulate and prescient.” — Willian Halal, Foresight Journal

“The SOF report continues, year after year, to be the best introduction—by far —to a broad range of major global issues and long-term remedies.” — Michael Marien, Global Foresight Books

“Brilliant! Never ending source of invention and creativity.” — Riel Miller, Foresight Director, UNESCO

Executive Summary (pdf) : Arabic , Azeri , Bulgarian , Chinese , English , French , Greek , Korean , Portuguese , Romanian , Russian , and Spanish

Order Bulgarian 2013-14 State of the Future: please email Mariana Todorova <[email protected]>

Order Korean 2013-14 State of the Future: available in the bookstores in Korea, or email Youngsook Park <[email protected]>

Identification of Potential Terrorists and Adversary Planning — Emerging Technologies and New Counter-Terror Strategies

Edited by Theodore J. Gordon, Elizabeth Florescu, Jerome Glenn, and Yair Sharan

Never before have technological advances had so great an impact on security—not only increasing the nature and level of threats, but also for the possibility of providing the means to address the threats. Technologies that could increase security include ubiquitous and omnipresent surveillance systems, the use of new algorithms for big data, improving bio- and psycho-metrics, and artificial intelligence and robotics. Yet trustworthy and reliable partners and an active and alert society remain sine qua non to reduce terrorism.

“To my mind, this publication is one of the best studies of modern terrorism and what to do about it that we have at our disposal. So I am confident that it will find a wide readership, not only in academic or think tank circles, but even more importantly, among policy makers and government officials. They stand to benefit most and they can afford least of all to ignore the important conclusions and recommendations that this wise publication has provided.” Jamie SHEA Deputy Assistant Secretary General, Emerging Security Challenges Division, NATO

The book is now avalable from IOS Press http://www.iospress.nl/book/identification-of-potential-terrorists-and-adversary-planning/

Lone Wolf Terrorism Prospects and Potential Strategies to Address the Threat

by Theodore J. Gordon, Yair Sharan, and Elizabeth Florescu

200 pages Electronic (downladable PDF) or Papareback print format ISBN: 978-0-692-45554-8

We believe that a new kind of arms race is developing. On one hand, is the possibility of increasingly destructive weapons falling into the wrong hands, and on the other, the development of new methods of surveillance and pinpointing individuals with malintent. Will the methods of detection be adequate and timely enough to avoid catastrophe? It is often said that one of the major purposes of futures research is to provide lead-time to decision makers and the decision process; we have lead-time. We hope it will be used to reduce the threat we see in front of us.

Albert Einstein is supposed to have said, “The world will not be destroyed by those who do evil, but by those who watch and do nothing.” We hope we have done something with this book.

Lonewolfthreat.com

Price: $50 US dollars

Order: Lonewolfthreat.com

2012 State of the Future

• CD-ROM: 10000 pages
• Publisher: The Millennium Project; 1 edition (August 1, 2012)
• ISBN-10: 0981894194
• ISBN-13: 978-0981894195
• Product Dimensions: 0.5 x 8.5 x 10.8 inches

“Fascinating read” — Andres Oppenheimer, Miami Herald & co-winner Pulitzer Prize

“A must read for any decision maker” — Enrique Peña Nieto, Governor of the State of Mexico “The best introduction to the major global issues and long-term remedies” — Global Foresight Books “The value and role of The Millennium Project is priceless.” — Shamsaddin Hajiyev Gummat, Chair, Sci & Educ., Parliament of Azerbaijan

CD containing about 10, 000 + pages of research behind the print edition and The Millennium Project’s 16 years of cumulative research and methods.

Read the Executive Summary (PDF file): English , Chinese

Paperback + CD Edition (English)

Price: $49.95 US dollars + shipping

2011 State of the Future

Paperback with CD 100-page print and an attached CD containing about 8,500 + pages of research behind the print edition and The Millennium Project’s 15 years of cumulative research and methods.

Read the Executive Summary (PDF file): Arabic , Azeri , Bulgarian , Chinese , English , French , Greek , Korean , Portuguese , Romanian , Russian , and Spanish

See articles in the “ Press Room “

• Paperback: 100 pages
• Publisher: The Millennium Project; 1 edition (August 1, 2011)
• ISBN: 978-0-9818941-5-7

Price: $39.95 US dollars

2010 State of the Future

Paperback with CD

83-page print and an attached CD containing about 7,000 pages of research behind the print edition and The Millennium Project’s 14 years of cumulative research and methods.

Read the Executive Summary (PDF file): Arabic , Chinese , English , French , German , Persian , Spanish

See articles in Ray Kurzweil’s Blog : “The State of the Future” Wired : “Futurists ponder planet, avoid despairing…” and others in the “ press room ”

• Paperback: 90 pages
• Publisher: The Millennium Project; 1 edition (July 7, 2010)
• ISBN-10: 0981894135
• ISBN-13: 978-0981894133
• Product Dimensions: 0.2 x 8.5 x 10.8 inches

2009 State of the Future

100-page print and an attached CD containing about 6,700 pages of research behind the print edition and The Millennium Project’s 13 years of cumulative research and methods.

Read the Executive Summary (PDF file): English , Chinese , French , German , Japanese, Persian , Spanish

See articles in The Independent : “The planet’s future…” Sunday Herald : “The seven terrors of the world” and others in the “ press room ”

• Publisher: The Millennium Project; 1 edition (August 1, 2009)
• ISBN: 978-0-9818941-2-6 Library of Congress Control Number: 98-646672

2008 State of the Future

Paperback with CD-ROM … enclosed CD contains about 6,300 pages of research behind this print edition, as well as the Millennium Project’s 12 years of study and analysis.

Read the Executive Summary (PDF file): Arabic , Azeri , Chinese , English , French , German , Italian , Japanese , Korean , Persian , Russian , Spanish

Listed first in the TOP TEN 2008 der Zukunftsliteratur (best future literature in 2008) by pro ZUKUNFT, Austria, and among the “Best Books and Reports” by World Future Society Futures Survey ‘s Annual Indexes and Best Books.

• Publisher: Millennium Project; 1 edition (August 5, 2008)
• ISBN: 978-0-9818941-0-2
• Product Dimensions: 0.2 x 8.2 x 10.8 inches

2007 State of the Future

by Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon

Paperback with CD-ROM

… enclosed CD contains over 6,000 pages of research behind this print edition, plus the Millennium Project’s eleven years of cumulative research & methods.

Read the Executive Summary (PDF file) Azeri , Chinese , English , French , Persian , Russian , Spanish

Press Release

• Paperback: 99 pages
• Publisher: World Federation of UN Associations; 1 edition (August 2, 2007)
• ISBN-10: 0-9722051-6-0
• Product Dimensions: 0.2 x 8.2 x 10.5 inches

2006 State of the Future

… enclosed CD contains over 5,400 pages of research behind this print edition, plus the Millennium Project’s nine years of cumulative research and methods.

Read the Executive Summary (PDF file) Azeri , Chinese , English , French , Japanese , Persian , Portuguese, Russian , Spanish

• Paperback: 125 pages
• Publisher: American Council for the UNU; 1 edition (August 1, 2006)
• ISBN-10: 0-9722051-5-2
• Product Dimensions: 0.5 x 8.8 x 11 inches

2005 State of the Future

… enclosed CD contains over 3,500 pages of research behind this print edition, plus the Millennium Project’s nine years of cumulative research and methods.

Read the Executive Summary (PDF file) English , Chinese , French , Japanese , Persian , Spanish , Czech

The report is also available in French: 2005 L’Etat du Ftutur

• Publisher: American Council for the UNU (July 20, 2005)
• ISBN: 0-9722051-4-4 Library of Congress Control Number: 98-646672

2004 State of the Future

… enclosed CD contains over 3,000 pages of research behind this print edition, plus the Millennium Project’s eight years of cumulative research and methods.

Read the Executive Summary (PDF file): English , Japanese , Korean , Persian , Spanish

• Paperback: 98 pages
• Publisher: American Council for the UNU (July 2004)
• ISBN-10: 0-9722051-2-8
• Library of Congress Control Number: 2004108659
• Package Dimensions: 10.8 x 8.3 x 0.4 inches

2003 State of the Future

… enclosed CD contains over 2,500 pages of research behind this print edition, plus the Millennium Project’s seven years of cumulative research and methods.

Table of Contents

Read the Executive Summary (PDF file): English , French , or Japanese , Persian , Spanish

• Paperback: 96 pages
• Publisher: American Council for the UNU (July 2003)
• ISBN: 0-9722051-0-1
• Library of Congress Control Number: 2003107816

2002 State of the Future

2002 State of the Future is a unique resource for those who care about global change and improving the future. It provides an assessment of the human situation as a whole, prospects for the future, and actions for today. It is used by both those who need the most precise briefings and those who want the full research background. Each chapter in the book is an executive summary of more complete reports in the CD-ROM section of about 2,000 pages. As a result, it provides a common platform for global actors, educators, and the concerned public to use in building more coherent policy.

Paperback with CD-ROM. 100 pages print and about 2,000 pages CD-ROM

Read the Executive Summary (PDF file): Persian

• CD-ROM: 2,000 pages
• Publisher: American Council for the United Nations (August 2002)
• ISBN: 0-9657362-9-6
• Product Dimensions: 0.5 x 8.5 x 11 inches

2001 State of the Future

“The Millennium Project on the State of the Future combines, as it should, flights of imagination into the far future with tightly focused analyses of present challenges. An indispensable volume for those who seek both the inspiration and enlightenment needed to meet the challenges that will make a productive future possible.” — Michael W. Doyle, Special Adviser to the Secretary-General, United Nations

Paperback with CD-ROM. 90 pages print and 1,500 page CD-ROM.

• Paperback : 90 pages
• CD-ROM: 1,500 pages
• Publisher: American Council for the United Nations (August 1, 2001)
• ISBN: 0-9657362-8-8
• Product Dimensions: 0.5 x 8.2 x 10.8 inches

State of the Future at the Millennium

“The past can only be described, but we can write the future together. The State of the Future offers us a creative and new project of hope.”

— Frederico Mayor, former Director-General of UNESCO

Best selling book at the July 23-26, 2000 World Future Society Conference.

State of the Future at the Millennium is a “report card on the future” written as an easy guide to what’s happing that can change the world with a range of views from around the world about who should do what to improve our prospects. This is what the educated world citizen should know. It gives you a sense of how humanity can get it all together.

• Paperback: 92 pages
• CD-ROM: 1000 pages
• Publisher: American Council for the United Nations (July 22, 2000)
• ISBN: 0-9657362-6-1
• Product Dimensions: 0.5 x 11.2 x 9 inches

1999 State of the Future: Challenges We Face at the Millennium

“The State of the Future distilles both foresight and genuine wisdom for humanity’s common future – from a global, multi-cultural collegium of advanced thinkers assembled by the Millennium Project. A major social innovation.”

— Hazel Henderson

“Scouting the future frontier into which we so slowly moved wasn’t particularly challenging yesteryear. Hugely different now; more so tomorrow, as this book reveals. It is an eye opener: sober, challenging, exciting, appropriately scary. It’s something you should read if you expect to go along, especially if you would like to affect the route.”

— Doug Engelbart

• Paperback: 340 pages
• Publisher: Amer Council for the United Nations; 1 edition (July 22, 1999)
• ISBN: 0-9657362-3-7
• ISBN (CD-ROM format): 0-9657362-4-5
• Product Dimensions: 1 x 8.8 x 11.2 inches

1998 State of the Future: Issues and Opportunities

15 global opportunities with judgements about polices to achieve them, interactions with 15 global issues from 1997 report, global exploratory and normative scenarios, lessons and questions from history, and annotated bibliography of 250 scenarios.

• Paperback: 304 pages
• Publisher: American Council for the United Nations; 1 edition (July 15, 1998)
• ISBN: 0-9657362-1-0
• Product Dimensions: 0.8 x 8.2 x 10.8 inches

1997 State of the Future: Challenges We Face at the Millennium

15 global issues with judgements about polices to address them, global scenarios, methodological issues, internet scanning, and annotated bibliography of 200 scenarios.

• Paperback: 202 pages
• Publisher: American Council for the United Nations University (1997)
• ISBN: 0-9657362-0-2
• SBN: 987-20343-0-3

International Governance Issues of the Transition from Artificial Narrow Intelligence to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is a distillation of interviews and collected insights from 55 AI experts from the United States, China, the United Kingdom, Canada, the European Union, and Russia on issue about how to regulate AGI—AI that can handle novel situations as well as, or better than humans. These views are organized by 22 question spanning 60 pages. Included among these experts are Sam Altman, Bill Gates, and Elon Musk. AGI could arise in the next few years, representing an “intelligence explosion” that creates AI surpassing human abilities, the report states. This report is possibly the richest overview of international views on AGI issues. Global governance of AGI could be the most difficult management challenge humanity has ever faced. This report is a good start on what has to be known to that challenge. Order download .